Saturday 3:00 AM

Needing just Ten Points as the Dealer, it should actually be quite difficult NOT to score enough and WIN today!

And with Pone sitting 'way out yonder' at Hole 104 and needing Seventeen Points to beat us to the punch bowl, it makes me wonder if this puzzle was perchance submitted WITH THE SCORES REVERSED?!

But, let's play it as it was submitted: I'll Toss (3 4) for its well-known "Close to Five Points" average Crib Value, as this gives us adequate insurance that, simply by the law of averages, Our Crib should take us "the other half of the way" home.

But I also daresay that we could probably stow *ANY* two cards into Our Crib here, and still likely WIN, since even if we come up short, as long as Our Opponent is also 'shy' of reaching the Finish Line, we'll enjoy "First Hand Show" during any Next Deal.

It's a shame, because if we simply 'reversed the scores' and either made this (111-104*) or (104*-111), in BOTH CASES I believe this would actually be an interesting puzzle.

And therefore, just for kicks:

At (111-104*), I think I would both offensively and defensively try something collectively useful like Toss (A 9), which would be quite embarrassing after that Ace is Cut, so maybe it would have been worth risking Toss (3 4), who knows?

And, at (104*-111), I believe that I would also Toss (3 4) as in the actual puzzle, and yet Toss (3 5) might mysteriously also work well, too.

   

Saturday 3:07 AM

I was consternating then I realized it was my crib.

   

Saturday 3:16 AM

I know its my crib. I kept this hand to play off. Now the lead if it looks like an Ace to three arrangement to me dodge. dec

   

Saturday 3:41 AM

Seventeen is a tough ask for Pone, but not impossible. Defensive pegging here.
Since I have two Aces, it's less likely that they have any, and so cannot pair one.
I'll hide the 5 card in my crib lest it be trapped somehow during the pegging phase.

   

Saturday 3:45 AM

The struggle her might be to get that fiver in own crib. Well it's not a good idea. Thinking of combined values (pegs + or -, hand scores starting with the six points (a "sweet 16" and a 3-card eleven), that moves the 3-5 down the list to 4th s place and 5-9 to 5th place. Discards of 3-4, A-9, and A-A all perform better individually than any of those choices to the crib. With opponent 17 points out, will choose an optimal pegging strategy. Once seeing the starter card and knowing that have 12 points in hand, will downshift to SAFE.

   

Saturday 5:28 AM

I've tossed the AA because it has the highest guaranteed value (7 points in hand + crib). Therefore we need only 3 points more from pegging and the cut.

After the Ace cut, we are of course home and only need to peg as defensively as possible to guard against the possibility of pone scoring 17 from peg + hand.

   

Saturday 6:16 AM

   

Saturday 3:06 PM

went defensive

   

Saturday 3:14 PM

I think it's between A-A-5-9 (3-4), A-A-4-9 (3-5), A-A-3-4 and 3-4-5-9 (A-A):

A-A-5-9: 6pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 11pts

A-A-4-9: 4pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 10pts

A-A-3-4: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 7¼pts

3-4-5-9: 3pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 8¼pts

Potential:

A-A-5-9: Improves with AA, 444, 555, 6666, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 12pts with AA, 555, 999 = 8 cuts.

A-A-4-9: Improves with AA, 2222, 444, 555, 6666, 999 + 16xXs = 35 =35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/12pts with AA, 444, 555, 999 + 16xXs = 27 cuts.

A-A-3-4: Improves with AA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6/8/10pts with AA, 2222, 555, 7777 + 16xXs = 29 cuts.

3-4-5-9: Improves with AA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 6/8/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666 = 17 cuts.

Position:

Pone needs 17pts to get out while we only need 10pts with pegging, hand and crib. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think A-A-5-9, A-A-4-9 and A-A-3-4 will all peg well with the two As and a 3-card magic eleven for the first two.

Summary:

A-A-5-9 has a better starting value by 1pt over A-A-4-9 and although 3-4-5-9 and A-A-3-4 has guaranteed improvement A-A-5-9 has 8 cuts for 12pts compared to 3 for 3-4-5-9 (333). It also should peg well. So I'll throw the 3-4.

   

Saturday 3:17 PM

At 111*-104 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____Win %s_Loss %s
A-A-4-9___6.78+0.93+5.96=13.68____90.7____9.3
A-A-5-9___7.87+1.17+4.50=13.54____92.1____7.6
A-A-3-4___6.24+1.37+5.34=12.94____88.3___11.7
3-4-5-9___6.07+1.67+4.91=12.65____89.5___10.3

A-A-4-9 is best for expected averages by 0.14pt over A-A-5-9 but A-A-5-9 is slightly better for Win %s. So in this position nearing the end of the game I'll decide based on Win %s and select 3-4 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.