Friday 3:07 AM

Impossible situation with today's hand. The Flush (a terrible configuration) gives up 2 points to dealer. Keeping 3-4-6-9 starts with 2 points. We need 12 points and dealer requires only 7 before starter card is shown.

   

Friday 3:24 AM

It’s all or nothing Time here-we need 12-the 2 and 5 of diamonds put us out,while a non diamond 2 or 5 get us to 120-the 3-4-6-9 only improves to 9 with a 2 cut-don’t worry about the crib here-if you don’t go out there’s a 99 percent chance you’re done anyways

   

Friday 3:31 AM

It's never as bad as it looks: it's either better . . . or it's worse. And, we don't know the answer to that mystery yet!

We need a Deuce, a 5 Card, or a Jack, and fast! And if it's a Diamond Suit, so much the better! This means that 12 cards or (2222, 5555, JJJJ) shall help us dearly, and 12 DIV 46 equals about 26%.

The Jacks help us the least of these three ranks, and they shove our Dealer Opponent toward the Finish Line as well. But at least we Cut a Diamond!

Now we need to peg Four Holes: A Possibility, albeit remote. I shall lead the Trey, since there exists a strong tendency to bring the Count up to Eleven, after which we could grab an early (15-2). Even then we would only be half way home, but just Two Holes shy of VICTORY.

Keep on fighting until we drop that last card!

Friday 3:55 AM

Goin for the two or five of diamonds. Now short .. we probably will lead the King and hope for the 3-4 trap for more points. dec

   

Friday 4:25 AM

It turns out that my initial, but changed, decision to keep the flush would have been worth sticking with, for the reasons everyone says above (and no doubt below too).

   

Friday 5:12 AM

It pays to flush! After the starter know that I have 8 points. Needing 12 to win, want four pegs, will lead the King, and keep 3-4 intact. My strategy is BOLD. little need to consider another deal. What chance is there to limit dealer to six points? According to the late, great DeLynn Colvert In "Play Winning Cribbage", there's 1 chance in 54. BTW if you're not a member of the American Cribbage Congress, do not have a copy of "Cribbage World" magazine, take the time to read the wonderful tribute to this great man in current issue of "Cribbage World". He was "the first with the most", made the greatest attempt to lay out the complexities of this wonderful game in a way that most folks could apply his teachings to their play. David Aiken, editor of "Cribbage World" and a host of contributors paint a vivid picture of this unique wonder. You can see this magnificent work on American Cribbage Congress website www.cribbage.org.

   

Friday 5:23 AM

I kept it this way hoping to cut a low card and peg a bunch.

   

Friday 6:09 AM

The odds of us being able to peg out next hand are low enough that I'd discard for max. None of these keeps would peg all that well.

It's very hard to trap a 5 as pone unless the dealer has two of them so I'd lead the 3 and hope for the common 8 response.

   

Friday 6:09 AM

I needed a 5 or a 2 cut. Slim chance of winning now. Lead the face card, doesn't matter which, and try to trap a 5.

   

Friday 6:15 AM

Only hope.

   

Friday 6:15 AM

Dealer will probably win no matter what we discard to them, unless we can take advantage of counting our hand first.

Not much of a tactic then, but I'll hold the flush and hope for a favourable cut.

   

Friday 6:56 AM

Lead the 3 and hope for the best. If I don't peg early this game is over.

   

Friday 6:57 AM

Praying for a 2 or 5. J of diamonds would the 3rd choice. Ah well, if we lose we lose without shame.

   

Friday 8:54 AM

I think my only chance is to keep the flush and hope for a 2 or 4 cut. Maybe if an A is cut i can save the 3&4 for the end to peg a few.

   

Friday 10:05 AM

Flush for me. Peg aggressively.

   

Friday 10:39 AM

Have to go for the win here and keep the flush. We need to go for those few cuts that will put us out with first count (2d, 5d, with any other 2 or 5 getting us one point away). Even an ace of diamonds gives us an outside shot with us needing to peg 3, which is possible.

   

Friday 1:20 PM

Desperation!!! See rob for thinking before cut. Ras for thinking after the cut. Just like football, Hail Mary's don't often work. But they do sometimes.

   

Friday 1:40 PM

With the flush a 2 or a 5 gives us 11pts and if it's a diamond we score the 12pts needed to go out. So I'll throw the 6-9.

   

Friday 1:57 PM

At 109-114* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Win %s are:

Offense__________________Win %
3-4-Q-K__________________19.2
3-4-6-9___________________9.3
4-6-9-K___________________3.5
4-6-9-Q___________________3.2
3-4-6-Q___________________2.6
3-4-6-K___________________2.6
4-6-Q-K___________________2.6

The flush has by far the best chance of Winning so I'll select 6-9 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the K and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
K____________________1.28
Q____________________1.26
4____________________0.95
3____________________0.86

   

Friday 4:45 PM

Today's 6-game report:

Won 5, lost 1. 707/726.

The one I lost(to Wilma) she had a crib flush and a 15 to make 7 pts, exactly what she needed to go out and win, with me at 102. If she hadn't had the crib flush, she would have only scored 2 pts there, 5 pts away from the finish line. Admittedly my chances of winning would be low, but I would still have a chance. At least I might have made it into the top 3. (3rd had 712, I had 707.)

Moreover, they informed me they made a mistake last week when they accorded me 3rd place. I was actually 4th, and could they have their money back? I returned the money, of course.

Next week is cancelled so we have 11 Fridays(66 games) played in all of Aug/Sep/Oct.

So this info will change my results some.

I was in top three 5 of those 11 Fridays = 45%, Still beats 14% expectation.

With today's 5 wins I won 46/66 games = 69.7% Pretty good, I would say.

Next 6-game match is 1 Nov. No more reports until then.