Monday 3:40 AM

Keeping all my small cards and will try to peg out. This is a situation where you hold a 3-4 at the end to trap a 5 if the pone has one.

Monday 3:55 AM

That sounds good to me also. I would keep the Queen to offset and Ace or two lead. dec

Monday 4:01 AM

As much flexibility as possible. No worries about the points, and there's a reasonable play off every lead. Definitely NOT keeping 3344 in this scenario. Need to have at least 1 face just in case if they drop a A,2, or 6 lead.

Monday 4:22 AM

We have a 3/46 equals 0.065 or about a 6.5% chance of a Jack Cut, which would almost certainly 'clinch' this game for us. But nearly 94% of the time, we cannot "count" on the occurrence of such a Fortuitous Cut, and so: let's do our due diligence and ask otherwise, "How do I defeat thee?" and "Let me count the ways!" by which is to inquire how we might thus win.

And why do I sound like I'm in Sixteenth-Century Britannia all of a sudden?! It is a language Sir John Suckling might better recognize, as he concocted 'This Game of Ours' called Cribbage circa 1620 out of Thin Air and "Noddy," or "Knave Noddy," which is not some ancient, intoxicating beverage, or the name of someone (who probably owes you money) with No Forwarding Address, but was a game that was popular about five centuries ago. How the time doth fly.

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Dealing from Hole 118 is a Special Case in Cribbage, because if we can score via our First Card Played during the pegging, that will ensure that we can always peg One Point MORE for the WIN, as long as Pone does not sabotage our effort and peg out FIRST.

Each PAIR has the ability to "clinch" this game for us if we can Self-PAIR along with an attendant "go," but we should probably not hold both PAIRS here, as we likely need an "out" card as well. This would suggest either (3 3 4 Q) or (3 4 4 Q) as viable choices.

We would like to score with our First Card Played if possible, and this calls for some VARIETY in our Hand as we contemplate our Discard Choices. It might be tempting to hold (3 4 4 Q) as it contains the Three-Card Magic Eleven of 3-4-4, but I prefer the lower-ranking trio of 3-3-4 instead.

Note that while 3-4-4 guarantees a (31=2) and often obtains (31=4) against Pone holding all "X" Cards or even (5 X X X), the 3-3-4 trio also ensures that against a Pone holding Four "X" Cards or (5 X X X), we shall still be able to Self-PAIR and score not just Two Points, but Three Points due to the "go" and the Self-PAIR of our Treys!

And since the 3-3-4 trio has a Pip Count of just Ten, it will "squeeze into" a wider variety of situations in order to obtain that crucial Self-PAIR that we may require as the Dealer. 

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An example of using the Lower Pip Count of 3-3-4: 

(A A 5 8) (7 K) vs (3 3 4 Q) (4 J) Cut 2s 
Pegging: A (1) Q (11) 8 (19) 4! (23) A (24) 3 (27) "go" 3 (30=3), (121-118). 

That's some Dandy Pegging right there, as we 'squeezed' two Aces out of Pone's Hand, not allowing any scoring whatsoever; and meanwhile, we PAIRED our own Treys to WIN the game!

Note that even if we hold the Three-Card Magic Eleven of 3-4-4 against this particular Pone Hand, we would still be able to prevail, but the reader is encouraged to think of and perhaps come up with several Pone Hands that might defeat us if we hold the Higher Pip Count of 3-4-4. 

Let's Toss (4 J) today, and try to peg out.

After the Deuce of Spades Cut Card, we now have a Dozen Points, but those points in the Hand do not matter, as I believe this game shall end during the pegging or during First Hand Show by Pone. Now we see clearly that this is more specifically a Pegging Puzzle and not a Discarding Puzzle, so let's address this Elephant in the Room!

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Okay: Here's the 'Good Stuff' you've been waiting for patiently. If Pone Leads a/an ________, then we should ________:

Ace: we should play our Queen;

Deuce: we should play our Queen;

Trey: we should PAIR it with a Trey, and risk PAIRS Royal;

4 Card: we should PAIR it with our 4 Card, and risk PAIRS Royal;

5 Card: we should play our Queen for (15=2);

6 Card: we should play a Trey, which requires another 6 Card to score (15-2), and leaves us with the most VARIETY;

7 Card: we should play a Trey, which leaves us with the most VARIETY, and requires a 5 Card to score (15-2), which allows us to score a Run 3-4-5 and WIN;

8 Card: we should play our Queen, and aim for a Count of Twenty-Eight if Pone plays another X Card;

9 Card: we could play our Queen or play our 4 Card. If we play our 4 Card, and if Pone grabs (15-2) with a Deuce, we can peg out and WIN with our Trey. But the initial Queen Reply may be BEST, so I'll try to show an example of each. I like the Queen, but if there's a Jack Cut, I'll reply with the 4 Card;

Ten "T" Card: we should play our 4 Card, and attempt to later Self-PAIR our Treys in order to WIN;

Jack: we should play our 4 Card, and attempt to later Self-PAIR our Treys in order to WIN;

Queen: we should PAIR it with our Queen, and risk PAIRS Royal, however, you may know if your Opponent prefers leading from a PAIR more often than an 'average' or typical player, so Play "OFF" if you fear PAIRS Royal. Pone will certainly try to lead from a PAIR in this situation, but the odds still show that we are better off scoring if and when we are able, especially after a Trey or 4 Card Lead, since we were dealt two of each today;

King: we should play our 4 Card, and attempt to later Self-PAIR our Treys in order to WIN;

Dealer WINS Pegging Examples (sorted in order by Rank of Pone's Lead Card):

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(A 5 7 K) vs (3 3 4 Q)
Pegging: A 3! K Q 7 (31-2), 3 5 4 (12=4), (121-120).

(2 2 5 K) vs (3 3 4 Q)
Pegging: 2 Q 5 3! T (30-1), 3 8 4 (15=3), (121-119).

(2 5 8 T) vs (3 3 4 Q)
Pegging: 2 Q K 3! 5 (30-1), 3 2 4 (9=4), (121-119).

(2 3 5 K) vs (3 3 4 Q)
Pegging: 3 3 (6=2) K Q 5 (31-2), 3 2 4 (9=4), (121-120).
"Just when I thought I was out . . . they pull me back in!"

(A 4 Q K) vs (3 3 4 Q)
Pegging: 4 4 (8=2) K Q A (29-1), 3 Q 3 (16=1), (121-119).

(4 5 6 Q) vs (3 3 4 Q)
Pegging: 4 4 (8=2) 6 Q 5 (29-1), 3 Q 3 (16=1), (121-119).

(A 3 6 6) vs (3 3 4 Q)
Pegging: 6 3! 6 (15-2) Q 3 3 (31=4), (121-120).

(2 6 6 7) vs (3 3 4 Q)
Pegging: 6 3! 6 (15-2) Q 2 4 (31=2), 7 3 (10=1), (121-120).

(A A 7 8) vs (3 3 4 Q) Cut = Jh!
EXCEPTION: we WIN after a Jack Cut against Pone with two Aces:
We respond with a Trey, because now we hold Maximum Variety, and we only need One Point.
We respond AGAIN with a Trey, because what was SAFE and worked once will often work again.
Pegging: 8 3! 7 3! A 4 A (27-1), Q (10=1), (121-119).

(2 5 8 8) vs (3 3 4 Q)
Pegging: 8 Q 8 3! 2 (31-2), 3 5 4 (12=4), (121-120).
We risk slightly more by playing a Trey at a Count of Twenty-Six (Pone could have two Aces), but the reward is that now we can form a Three-Card Run of either 2-3-4 or 3-4-5 and "steal" the VICTORY!

(7 8 T J) vs (3 3 4 Q)
Pegging: 8 Q J 3 (31=2), 7 3! T 4 (24=1), (121-118).
Note second volley of pegging, we respond with our Trey, since a 4 Card Reply here allows Pone with a 4 Card to "steal" our VICTORY!

(5 6 9 Q) vs (3 3 4 Q) Cut = Jh!
Pegging: 9 4 Q 3 5 (31-2), 3 6 Q (19=1), (121-120).
If we obtain a Jack Cut, it's often wise to "SAVE the QUEEN" as a viable Defensive "Out" Card.

(6 7 9 9) vs (3 3 4 Q)
Pegging: 9 Q 9 3 (31=2), 6 3 7 4 (20=1), (121-118).
As the Dealer, we'll always score either a "go" or Last Card (unless Pone pegs out FIRST), so any Two-Point play during the first volley of pegging will usually propel us toward VICTORY LANE!

(5 7 T Q) vs (3 3 4 Q)
Pegging: T 4 Q 3 "go" 3 (30=3), (121-118).

(5 7 J K) vs (3 3 4 Q)
Pegging: J 4 K 3 "go" 3 (30=3), (121-118).

(A A J J) vs (3 3 4 Q)
EXCEPTION: we WIN only after a Trey Response to an "X" Card Lead:
Pegging: J 3! J 4 A 3 (31=2), A Q (11=1), (121-118).

(5 7 Q K) vs (3 3 4 Q)
Pegging: Q Q (20=2) K (30-1), 3 7 4 5 3 (22=4), (121-119).

(5 6 K K) vs (3 3 4 Q)
Pegging: K 4 K 3 "go" 3 (30=3), (121-118).

It should now be clear why the 3-3-4 trio works very well in this Special Case when we are the Dealer at Hole 118, and in this particular situation, it remains superior to the Three-Card Magic Eleven of 3-4-4! There is a wealth of pegging information that you can glean from this data, and maybe you can see some mistakes or better alternatives, which I always welcome.

If pegging happens to be a weak part of your game, I recommend that you spend a large(r) portion of your time studying a single, specific playout scenario (such as this one) instead of "just" playing more and more games without focusing on a particular task. Targeting one area of your game with directed energy and focus will help you improve your play in ALL of your future games.

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Wordle 1,409 4/6

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The "good" Vladimir, born in Kyiv (1903): https://youtu.be/FxhbAGwEYGQ

We've now been *without* Janis nearly as long as we *had* Janis.

"It ain't nothin' if it ain't free" 🌼 🎸 🎹 https://youtu.be/sfjon-ZTqzU

Monday 4:24 AM

Terrible news from Vancouver last night. I hope that nobody on here is, or has friends/family, affected by what has happened.

3-4-4 eleven might bring four pegs. Should I have kept an out card, (Q), too?

Monday 4:44 AM

Kept the 3-4-4 hoping to peg my 4s at the end of a pegging sequence or possibly trap a lone 5. I kept the J thinking they may need to hold a J if we dealt them a terrible hand. Maybe Q would have been better/safer to hold, but I think it’s all out aggressiveness here.

Monday 6:39 AM

Nice job winning that game, Wendy. Thanks for the reportin job at the end of Deadwood. Crapshoot here for me. Maybe get the 3's in at the end of a pegging sequence.

Monday 6:40 AM

Congrats to Jason for all of his accomplishments in Deadwood, plus getting a 28 hand! Well done :)

Monday 6:56 AM

I kept the small card pairs, because they were small cards.

Monday 7:02 AM

Four different cards for pegging.Taking whatever is offered.

Monday 7:51 AM

Think we should keep an out card.

Received a report that Ras in a trwatment facility, no more specific details. And his wife in a different one due to separate needs.

Monday 7:51 AM

Monday 8:16 AM

Great scenario Wendy-I like the 334Q-the Q is a nice safe card if pone leads a middle ,and I like the pair of threes over the fours in case pegging goes 6–Q-9-

Monday 8:18 AM

I considered keeping an "out card" but then decided to keep the best "trap cards" instead.

Monday 9:06 AM

I'm with Sgt Peggers today. Keeping the littluns in hopes to trap and peg out

Monday 10:55 AM

At 118*-118 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging (cautious offense) the Pone Peg Out %s and Our Peg Out %s are:

Optimal_______Pone Peg Out %_____Our Peg Out %
3-3-4-Q____________14.5______________51.9
3-3-4-J____________14.9______________51.1
3-4-4-Q____________15.2______________46.5
3-4-4-J____________15.2______________46.1
3-3-4-4____________20.4______________45.9

3-3-4-Q has the lowest chance of Pone Pegging Out and the best chance of Our Pegging Out so I'll select a 4-J to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Monday 2:28 PM

I’ll keepnJ for possible (hopeful) nobs. Hope the rest of the hand have enough options to peg out