Monday 3:14 AM

Tough spot to be in.

Every cut bar a 4 is helpful.

With a 2nd two and an 8 in my hand, 2-9 might achieve below its average.

2 lead.

   

Monday 3:25 AM

Seems to be a choice between 79 and and 29.

79 averages more points. Need to keep pone pegging down but don't see an easy path to win here!

Say we get to 103*-113, we could win. But still need a good hand next time and a very bad hand now and a bad one next time for pone.

We can't go ultra defensive here and must accept the right cards or cut for pone and this is game over.

Lead 8? Could go 8-x-2-x which is bad. Or 8-x-5-5-2 which is slightly better

Or lead 2? Pone might reply with 6, 7, 9, X , which aren't promising for us. Think I would lead the 8.

   

Monday 3:34 AM

Desperate days. I'll try throwing the 7 - 9. In the hope they don't match. Need dealer to have a zero crib.

   

Monday 3:55 AM

Don't gain a thing here with dealer already at hole 105 by playing offense. So am thinking def., when picking up the cards, thinking def. when discarding 7-9 (admittedly 2-9 has a much lower average), and playing SAFE once knowing that I have the six points after seeing the starter card. Will lead the 8 and escape with 2D if dealer pegs on my lead. If RAS is going to have even a slim chance to win, got to limit dealer on this hand to no more than 8 holes (pegs, hand and crib scores). What's the chance of that? That's one of 14. Am looking at all-out defense this hand and the next if get a chance to play it. If dealer gets the average pegs, hand, and crib score on this deal of 16, the game is over.

   

Monday 4:04 AM

Seeing what the situation is guessing we are at least 5-1 to lose here... So not giving up will discard 7-9 and try to peg very defensively now. Perhaps they kept a minimal of middle cards in hands and just threw face cards in the crib. They also get a non cut and we proceed with the next hand perhaps a minimal of them being a little long on first count. That is my optimism and I play hard here right to the end. Two lead peg from my strength. dec

   

Monday 4:19 AM

I tossed the 7-9 reluctantly, and probably got away with it. The 4 doesnt help the cause. Lead the 2. Praying the dealer has a clunker of a hand and crib, otherwise this game is a big L.

   

Monday 4:48 AM

The POSITION forces our choice today. If we were Dealer, we'd have a chance here; but sadly, we are Pone.

The Dealer will really have to 'fall flat' on his/her face to lose this game, maybe via a Two-Point Hand and a similar Crib.

If I thought Toss (2 9) would aid in that effort, I'd try it, but I don't see that anything helps us. But giving up Two Points to save maybe half-a-point in Crib Value does not serve us well here.

It's just a good thing we're already over the SKUNK line!

   

Monday 7:50 AM

All or nothing throw in this desperate situation.

   

Monday 8:29 AM

No hold to get more than a dozen...maybe parlay the 2's at the end.

   

Monday 9:38 AM

I'm really surprised at how many people are gambling with 7-9. We have almost no chance of winning unless our opponent scores very badly.

He has first count next hand...

   

Monday 10:56 AM

Dealer must completely miss in the crib. Throwing 2 semi touchies increases the odds of a complete miss or (it prob doesn't matter anyway) a complete hit. Two highs or 2 lows from dealer and we may have our complete miss. There is a maxim in bridge that if you need cards to lie a certain way to make your contract, you must play for it. So too here, need dealer to have a complete miss??...play for it.

   

Monday 12:13 PM

Really need to keep dealer pegging down.

   

Monday 2:59 PM

I think it's between 2-2-5-8 (7-9) and 5-7-8-9 (2-2) or perhaps 2-7-8-9 (2-5) and 2-5-7-8 (2-9):

2-2-5-8: 6pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.26) = +¾pts

5-7-8-9: 5pts - 6½pts (Scgell: 6.38) = -1½pts

2-7-8-9: 5pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.11) = -1¼pts

2-5-7-8: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.70) = -¾pt

Potential:

2-2-5-8: Improves with 22, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 888 + 16xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 12pts with 22, 555, 888 = 8 cuts.

5-7-8-9: Improves with AAAA, 22, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 17 cuts.

2-7-8-9: Improves with 22, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 10/12pts with 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 13 cuts.

2-5-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 22, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 7/8/10pts with 22, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 18 cut.

Position:

Dealer only needs 16pts to go out which is the average for Dealer so I'll play Defense to try to keep them short.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 2-2-5-8 will peg best with 2-5-7-8 close behind.

Summary:

We're in a pretty hopeless position but so I think we may have to play desperation Defense and throw the safest 2-9.

   

Monday 3:21 PM

At 91-105* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Win % and Loss %s for this deal are:

Offense_________Win %________Loss %s
2-2-5-8__________0.0__________36.8
2-5-7-8__________0.0__________38.8
2-5-7-9__________0.0__________40.2
2-5-8-9__________0.0__________40.4
2-2-5-7__________0.0__________44.8
2-2-7-9__________0.0__________51.1
2-7-8-9__________0.0__________51.4
5-7-8-9__________0.0__________52.4
2-2-7-8__________0.0__________52.7
2-2-5-9__________0.0__________55.8
2-2-8-9__________0.0__________57.8

We have no chance of getting out this deal but 2-2-5-8 minimises the chance of losing on this deal. So I'll select 7-9 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead a 2 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Pts.________Loss %
8_____________________1.23________________13.5
5_____________________1.16________________18.3
2_____________________1.14_________________9.9

The 8 lead pegs best but the 2 lead has lowest chance of losing so I'll lead a 2.

   

Monday 6:03 PM

The infamous "crib-killer" toss and you need the peg cards to block any further movement by the pone......plus, its the only way in this scenario to obtain a double-digit hand......