Yesterday's results

*** This hand was suggested by Jazzselke
70*-72  ?
53%
18%
11%
8%
3%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 213

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

dec
4755 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 3:09 AM
Lets get to that 85 marker. They lead a middle card we might just have to get creative in the pegging. That next par will be very important. dec
thelawnet
21 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Wednesday 4:02 AM
EVs of possible hands:

* 4569 - 9.8, but A9 is even worse than usual in crib with 69 in our hand
* a456 - 8.8 the 99 to the crib is worth below 5
* 5699 - 8.3 A4 in crib is surprisingly good and makes total ev about the same as A456
* a699 - 7.2 45 in the crib is the best of the lot but we are somewhat dependent on pone's discards in that this is the worse hand

so of the options the first is too bad for the crib and the last is not appealing for pegging, a456 seems to peg better so we might as well go for that as there are better pegging prospects
Rosemarie44
1476 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 4:55 AM
So is it defense or offense here? Prefer A-4 than a pair in my crib and also starting with 6 points rather than 5 points (but a really good pegging hand). Nice cut of a Jack!
Andy (muesli64)
1661 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Wednesday 5:08 AM
Touch and go A-4 or 9-9
james500
2374 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 5:48 AM
The hand is less liked to be improved by the cut than others available, but I reckon the crib may "take up the slack".

9 reply to a J,Q or K lead:
X(10)-9(19)-5(24)-6(30)-go-A(31/2).
RubyTuesday
313 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Wednesday 6:12 AM
I’m the person who didn’t consider throwing A 4 but think I would still have thrown the pair to keep the 4 5 6 run in my hand.
JRCeagle78
796 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Wednesday 7:07 AM
I have been advised by many players that A456 is an better hand to hold for 2 reason. The A-4 gives you an additional 2 points should an X card is cut, and The Ace can be used as either an escape card or a "red herring" during the play of the hand. This is a hand that can be used as either offense or defense depending upon the play of your opponent, your position on the board or whether you are dealer or pone.
travelingman2019
176 votes

Joined: December 2018

Wednesday 8:00 AM
I seem to be doing what you told me, coach...LOL.....the ultimate pegging had to keep the position and a good offensive toss of the 9's.............
Jazzselke
1383 votes

Joined: March 2009

Wednesday 8:37 AM
Always wonder about this hand; like the 45 in my crib, and keeping the 699 together. A456 preferred as the non-dealer, but can also peg well as the dealer, but not crazy about 9s in the crib holding a 6.
horus93
624 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Wednesday 8:39 AM
My gut cut this way between a-4 and 9-9
JQT
2704 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 9:08 AM
I believe Toss (9 9) is a most shameful discard, but here I am, attaching my name to it.

I would really like to try Toss (4 5) into my Own Crib today, but (A 4 5 6) is simply too good of a pegging hand to pass up.
byrd
76 votes

Joined: October 2019

   
Wednesday 9:22 AM
Eddy says that putting any one or two cards in your crib that add up to 5 is a guaranteed 2 pts, so this hand/crib combo guarantees us 8 pts. Side note: Has anyone done the analysis on an X - 5 discard? Is that discard automatically 4 pts in the crib?
dgergens
472 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Wednesday 11:06 AM
I was going to say woops. But then decided to look at Liam site. Seems my discard choice, 4,5 is the hail mary suggestion, and is statistically only .1 and .2 points less than 9,9 and A,4 discards respectively. Not going to leave today's puzzle with my head down.
Ras2829
3607 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 1:26 PM
What' not to like about a 2-card 11, 3-card 11, and a "sweet 16" all wrapped up in these nifty four cards? Those "elevens from heaven" send me into an amazing rapture. Will choose off., off., off., and play on the lead. After turning the Jack am assured of two points, a guaranteed peg, 9 points in hand, a known two in the crib. That's already 14 points and the 9-9 averages 5.213 to own crib. So move on down the board; don't worry about opponent on this deal. N/D of this hand needs 23 points to gain a positional advantage by reaching 4th street CPZ 95-99. Time to build on our edge.
Coeurdelion
4073 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 2:37 PM
Several possibilities 4-5-6-9 (A-9), A-4-5-6 (9-9), A-6-9-9 (4-5) and 5-6-9-9 (A-4):

4-5-6-9: 7pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.40) = 10½pts

A-4-5-6: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.16) = 10¼pts

A-6-9-9: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 12½pts

5-6-9-9: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 11¼pts

Potential:

4-5-6-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 6666, 99 = 12 cuts.

A-4-5-6: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/12/14pts with 3333, 444, 555, 666, 99 + 16xXs = 31 cuts.

A-6-9-9: Improves with AAA, 555, 666, 8888, 99 = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 10/12pts with 555, 666, 99 = 8 cuts.

5-6-9-9: Improves with AAA, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 99 + 16xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 10/11/12pts with AAA, 444, 666, 7777, 99 = 15 cuts.

Position:

We're at positional hole and Pone is 14pts short of where they would want to be. I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Of these hands A-4-5-6 should peg the best with a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

A-6-9-9 has the best starting value by 1¼pts but has few cuts for improvement. 5-6-9-9 has the second best starting value and 34 cuts for improvement while 4-5-6-9 and A-4-5-6 start with about the same but ¾/1pt lower but have the best numer of cuts for improvement. A-4-5-6 should also peg the best. I'll keep the pegging hand and throw 9-9.
HalscribCLX
3846 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 2:56 PM
At 70*-72 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
A-4-5-6___8.85+3.74+4.86=17.45____13.2____48.3
5-6-9-9___8.33+3.17+5.43=16.93____10.7____47.8
4-5-6-9___9.85+3.78+3.04=16.67____10.7____45.9
A-6-9-9___7.22+2.33+6.35=15.90____10.3____46.4

Offense_______L3 %____L4 %
A-4-5-6_______8.0_____29.1
5-6-9-9_______5.9_____27.4
4-5-6-9_______6.4_____29.2
A-6-9-9_______5.0_____27.0

A-4-5-6 is best for expected averages by 0.52pt and is best for Win %s by an appreciable amount. A-6-9-9 is lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select 9-9 to discard.

After the J cut I'll play Defense to the lead.