Friday 3:07 AM

Considered 7-8. That three cut would have worked. Now I will move on and play defense with eleven count. dec

   

Friday 3:20 AM

I like holding the higher run in my hand and the 4-5 (which is valued at 6.53 points in my crib.

   

Friday 3:23 AM

Toss (7 8) is a great discard, but Toss (4 5) is even greater, and is a 'top-tier' Dealer Discard, one that allows us to retain a two-card Magic Eleven (3 8).

Even if that Trey were a Diamond Suit, we should ignore discarding "Same Suits" such as Toss (3 4) to our Own Crib if it means not discarding the 5 Card, which belongs in the BOX!

Toss (8 9) is perhaps appropriate in some special positional or endgame struggles, but not here.

   

Friday 4:18 AM

Maybe there is something I’m not seeing here but I think the clear discard is 45-I just cannot in good Cribbage conscience keep a 9 with a 345 run

   

Friday 4:33 AM

The probability of getting a turn card that helps is very high here. And it did.

   

Friday 5:28 AM

Good morning! First time commenter here. I have enjoyed learning from you over the past couple of months and finally decided to join in.

I tossed the 7-8 for 3 reasons. First, I am guaranteeing points in my crib (2) along with keeping points in my hand (3). The most you can guarantee is 5 no matter which way you toss.

Second, every cut benefits my hand. If I had tossed 4-5, then I would have 5 points in my hand, but no certain benefit in my crib because A's and 2's by themselves guarantee no help, and those are common pone discards.

And third, I believe 3-4-5-9 as dealer is better for pegging, especially regarding pone's initial play.

I suggested some real life hands that are supposed to appear in October. I hope you enjoy!

   

Friday 5:32 AM

Either the 45 or the 78. I think the 45 is more likely to get some help. Mediocre position. I'd like to get to hole 70 but that seems unlikely. Plan B is to play cautious offense.

   

Friday 5:35 AM

A few plausible options here, but I'll join the 4-5 gang too.

Am keen to see what Hal makes of 3-4-7-8 (5-9) however.

   

Friday 5:57 AM

Following Ras' advice of putting the 5 into the crib.

   

Friday 5:59 AM

At 58*-56, we're in a comfortable place. We just want to be at 70, and dealer, before Opp. Given he averages 10pts as pone, he is not likely to reach his 70 and dealer goal for next hand. We, averaging 16 as dealer this hand, are likely to reach 70+ and non-dealer next hand. We should be well ahead of 70 and dealer the hand after that.
It all means: Play for most pts in discarding, but peg cautiously so as not to help Opp. reach 70 this hand(He can be expected to see 66 - if he doesn't get some more than average results, that is.)

(A)3-7-8-9(5-4) is worth 5 static pts +6.5 in the crib = 11.5 pts. Only A,2, X do not help this hand, but X is guaranteed to help the crib.

(B)3-4-5-9(7-8) is worth is worth 3 static pts + 6.4 in the crib = 9.4 pts All cuts help the hand, but a fair number of cuts won't help the crib.

A is worth at the start about 2.1pts more, on average. In pegging, it offers a possible 15-2(the 3 and 8 cards) and a possible run with the 7,8, and 9 cards.
B offers a possible pegging run with the 3,4,5 cards, but no magic 11 is there.

The 2pts difference at the start are the decisive factor, for me.

For me, A it is. 3-7-8-9(4-5).

Peg cautiously. Careful of pairing if Opp. can triple. Go for 31-2 in preference to 15-2, unless you can make 15-2 safely.

   

Friday 6:10 AM

   

Friday 6:23 AM

We have discussed this hand in the past, like the 45 in the crib, 3459 just does not work well together. And hope for that 6X from the opponent.

   

Friday 6:44 AM

Another text book problem and answer.

   

Friday 6:46 AM

   

Friday 6:55 AM

   

Friday 7:11 AM

Have always chucked 7-8 to crib before, but As Rob said, it's a waste to keep the9 with the 3-4-5.

   

Friday 8:27 AM

I think best option here is to discard 4-5 which is the strongest discard to our own crib For this hand. I also like the 3-8 magic 11 for pegging. Do not see a better way to play this one at this position.

   

Friday 10:38 AM

I agree with most. With that cut unlikely to propel us very far down 3rd street I would peg this very defensively.

   

Friday 12:06 PM

5 in hand, at least 2 in crib, dealer peg brings us to a minimum of 64. Non dealer needs 13 to get to next CPZ. DEF DEF

   

Friday 3:51 PM

I think there are three main options 3-7-8-9 (4-5), 3-4-5-7 (8-9) and 3-4-5-9 (7-8). 4-5 will be better than 3-5 and 3-4:

3-7-8-9: 5pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 11½pts

3-4-5-7: 5pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = 9¾pts

3-4-5-9: 3pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 9½pts

Potential:

3-7-8-9: Improves with 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 333, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 16 cuts.

3-4-5-7: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 888 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 9/12/14pts with 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 888 = 19 cuts.

3-4-5-9: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 6/8/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666 = 17 cuts.

Position:

We're 14pts past positional hole and Pone is 4pts short of where they would like to be. So I'll be playing Defense.

Pegging:

I think 3-4-5-7 and 3-4-5-9 will peg better than 3-7-8-9.

Summary:

3-7-8-9 has a starting value 1¾/2pts more than the other two and although it has many fewer cuts for improvement I don't think 3-4-5-7 or 3-4-5-9 will catch up the difference even with the better pegging. So I'll throw the 4-5.

   

Friday 4:44 PM

Update on the 6-game match today. The first 5 games I scored 116,121,121,121,121. Giving up only 5 points to that point. Last game was against Don - he'd lost most of his 5 games games and been skunked, but he could still be a spoiler, for me.

We got to the point where the score was 95-100* for him. I don't think Don knows anything about positional play, but he was in better position.

I was dealt 3-5-7-7-8-8. My best chance was 7-7-8-8(3-5), right? I did that, and a 4 was cut.
Don pegged two last cards to bring his score to 102. I pegged my 12 points to reach 107. Had been hoping for more, clearly.

His hand was 10 points. Brought him to 112. He needed 9 points more. Turned out he had discarded 2-6. So with the 4 there was 2-3-4-5-6 for exactly his 9 points and the win.

I was left with 707 total points, good for 4th place today. 3rd place had 709 pts.

I was out-of-the-money. Ah, well, it was a good afternoon.

Thanks for your interest, folks!

   

Friday 5:33 PM

At 58*-56 playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
3-7-8-9___7.11+(-2.17)+6.52=11.46____10.4____41.5
4-7-8-9___7.15+(-2.11)+5.88=10.92_____9.1____40.0
3-4-5-7___8.33+(-2.13)+4.43=10.63____10.2____39.5
5-7-8-9___7.98+(-2.17)+4.58=10.39_____9.2____39.0
3-4-5-9___6.20+(-2.24)+6.35=10.31_____9.8____37.8

Defense_______L4 %____L5 %
3-7-8-9_______7.8_____30.5
4-7-8-9_______8.0_____31.4
3-4-5-7_______8.7_____32.2
5-7-8-9_______8.0_____31.6
3-4-5-9_______9.1_____33.6

3-7-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.54pt and is best for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 4-5 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Friday 6:18 PM

I agree with the all out offense from this position-the 2-2-3-K-scores 10 to 12 points on many cuts and even 14 with the ace cut-the king 5 is obviously not ideal but the dealer is still 41 away so that lessens the danger

   

Saturday 12:08 AM

A m often asked in hands that contain two three-card runs which run should be played. These six are the most common. A major factor is choice of strategy. Here limiting opponent movement down the board seems to be key with a need for n/d to score 13 points to reach 3rd street CPZ (69-73); so it's def., def., def. and play off the lead. Here holding 3-7-8-9 with the higher scoring 4-5 discard to crib is spot on. Conversely had the strategy choice been offense, you might be amazed how the numbers change. Just ran a query on Cribbage Prof with these cards in this position and 3-4-5-7 with 8-9 discard comes within .02 (hundredths)of a point of 3-7-8-9. The offensive pegging potential of 3-4-5-7 nearly wipes out the potential added crib points of 4-5 as compared to the 8-9. Lots of great commentary above.