Sunday 3:40 AM

I like J-Q vs Q-K for the greater crib potential and pegging flexibility.

   

Sunday 4:23 AM

Trying to play defense. Play off on everything, but pair a 6 lead

   

Sunday 4:42 AM

Needing Ten Points, or what is Pone Average to WIN, but to do so as the Dealer, is a very awkward predicament to find ourselves facing, but luckily, our Opponent is sitting way back at Hole 105, needing Sixteen Holes (or what is ironically Dealer Average) in order to defeat us!

It's highly unlikely we can peg Ten Holes, even after the 6.5% chance in which we cut one of the three extant Jacks. But unless Pone pegs out, we are guaranteed to always peg One Hole as the Dealer, so what we really need are Nine Points from our combined Hand and Crib, along with any additional pegging we can summon in the process.

Therefore, we are probably best served today if we simply play a game of "lazy evaluation" as it's called in the programming language theory field or discipline.

In fact, the numbers needed by either player today are so ideally suited for the given scores to be reversed, one might suspect that the puzzle was perhaps entered incorrectly, but that's simply not at all like we've come to expect from scottcrib, so I'm just going to 'latch onto the thing' like it were a rusty pair of scissors, and bloody run with it! I mean, that sounds like the logical and reasonable and safe thing to do, does it not?!

If our Hand or Crib on its own can 'crank out' at least Eight Points, I'm going to feel confident that the respective, remaining Crib or Hand can be called upon to supply at least that (additional) One Point that may be needed, when all is said (but maybe not quite done) in order to finish the job, so let's use Eight Points as our 'benchmark' or gauge in either instance today. Alrighty Then!

One powerful concept we can try to establish right away is that Toss (J Q) is (possibly?) clearly superior to Toss (Q K)! A potential Ten "T" Card Cut will "connect" Toss (J Q) in our Crib in a very satisfactory and 'equal or better' way than it will boost Keep (6 6 9 J)! Right?! We examined this very mysterious and powerful Toss (J Q) 'Discard Cousin' very thoroughly yesterday, and you may recall that just like Toss (3 4) and Toss (6 7), which also both begin with Zero Points, these will all later tend to average close to Five Points in our Crib, and thus equal or maybe even exceed the value of several High PAIRS!

Here we can see very clearly how it's possible to take the "building blocks" from yesterday's puzzle and realize the strength(s) of a Dealer Discard such as Toss (J Q), as it becomes yet one of many other arrows in our quiver, all in order to try to maximize the potential value of our composite Hand and Crib, and do so in a totally new and different puzzle.

Keep (6 6 9 K) will then allow Touching Cards such as Toss (J Q) to wind up in our Crib, and while our Crib score may therefore 'draw a blank,' we are forced to imagine how (6 6 9 K) and Toss (J Q) might transform itself into Eight Points or more, and we see that it shall do so after Twenty Cuts (3333, 5555, 66, 999, TTTT, KKK), which will occur 20/46 equals about 43% of the time.

But we must also notice that if and when this Toss (J Q) idea fails to find help, we shall ALWAYS begin with at least Six Points in our Hand! This concept is very important, because along with the minimum One Hole that we'll always peg as the Dealer, this means that after Toss (J Q), in the worst case, we'll always make it to Hole 118 or farther. Let's put a big, bright red PIN 📌 in that idea for now.

It should be noted that those Four Ten "T" Card Cuts actually do the "heavy lifting" in our Crib, by completing a Three-Card Run, while all other Cuts meet the obligation primarily via the Hand. If Pone does not go out with First Hand Show, of course it does not matter where our points come from; it only matters that we score them. And remarkably, it is the potential for the way a King Cut will ultimately help BOTH our Hand AND Crib in the very best way, but only if we Toss (J Q)!

On a totally different, parallel universe, our other idea of Keep (9 J Q K) will result in the PAIR or Toss (6 6) ending up in our Crib, and when we perform a similar task as we did earlier, and imagine how (9 J Q K) might transform itself into Eight Points or more, and we see that it can do so after Twenty-Three Cuts (3333, 5555, 66, 999, Ts, JJJ, QQQ, KKK), which will occur 23/46 equals precisely 50% of the time. But what happens if and when we DON'T get any help? Here, we see that the worst-case scenario is a lot WORSE!

If the Cut Card fails to help this Toss (6 6) idea, now we shall have to begin with just Five Points, instead of with Six Points as we did after Toss (J Q). That may seem trivial, but after the perfunctory pegging point gets tallied by us here, we are always going to need Nine Points MORE, and therefore, each and every point among those Nine Points represents 11% of our workload today. By starting off with Toss (J Q), it would appear that this allows us to "shave" an easy 11% off of the worst-case scenarios! And that's an important difference.

Before we simply assume that 50% is bigger and better than 43% (I neglected to tell you how easy this would be today!), we want to do THREE THINGS. First, we should make sure that Keep (9 J Q K) is as SAFE of a Pegging Hand as Keep (6 6 9 K), because if one of these allows Pone to peg a LOT easier, it could upset all of our pre-planned ideas today! There shall certainly be constructs and Pone Hands that can probably 'peg us silly' and defeat us against these cards, but I don't believe these are predictable, meaning I don't think Pone will be able to create such a hand 'at will' and do so reliably, not from a lot of arrangements as dealt.

Okay, so while Keep (9 J Q K) maybe seems not perfect and it's likely even worse than our alternative hand idea for allowing maybe a point more to be pegged, I can't imagine why this should restrict us from holding onto the optimum scoring idea. That takes care of one of the things: what are the other two? One is fairly simple: we should probably also look at Keep (6 J Q K) and Toss (6 9) as well! This alternative is either better or worse than the "solution" we already found, so which is it?!

Keep (6 J Q K) and Toss (6 9) can also transform itself into Eight Points or more, and we see that it can do so after just Eighteen Cuts (5555, 66, 999, JJJ, QQQ, KKK), which will occur 18/46 equals only 39% of the time, so it's definitely an inferior choice to both other ideas, but we couldn't be sure of this until we checked it out, and now we know!

The very last thing we have to do is consider whether those extra Cut Cards that help us after we Toss (6 6) can ever make up for the fact that our worst-case scenarios leave us in an inferior place if we Toss (6 6), because the (6 6 9 K) Hand always starts with Six Points, no matter what! Starting with more matters in Cribbage, and hoping that the Cut Card or the pegging can 'make up for' the difference is a losing battle in this game!

Let's Toss (J Q) AGAIN today, and let's do so with confidence, because that is how a player should feel once the mysteries of a given puzzle have been peeled back and exposed, and fully examined, explored, and hopefully understood. Let us learn to like this feeling and this moment. 🎯

After the King of Spades Cut Card, we now have Eight Points in our Hand, with a RUN that we don't even need in our Crib, thus we have points that we shall never need look at. Our job now is to peg tentatively and carefully, and not 'fritter away' a game by pegging poorly when it is a game that should have been won.

A bit of a ruling question for some lonely arbiter out there: If Pone does indeed come up short today, given that we have sufficient points with our Pegging and our Hand to WIN the game, are we obligated by the rules of Cribbage to reveal our Crib if we're already out without the need to count it?

Further, if we do not wish to show our Opponent how we discarded, and we don't need to tally those points in our Crib in order to WIN, is it a violation of the rules to place the cards from our Crib, UNSEEN, back into the pack of the deck of cards? And if it's not breaking any rules, is it perhaps a breach of etiquette?

   

Sunday 4:50 AM

9JQK (66), 6JQK (69), 669K (JQ) – the difference in defensive pegging between these is not vast. Meanwhile, we cannot presume on our own scoring at 111* with these cards, even though some people write about dealer’s scoring as if 16 points was a sort of birthright (and similarly of the crib and the crib means).

But even considering defensive pegging – 9JQK, 6JQK, hands with higher ranks are on the whole a bit worse on defense because there are higher odds of pone being able to parley his low cards, as a general rule of thumb. 6JQK has a two-card sixteen, but remember that this can actually lose points against three- and four-card fifteens held by pone depending on the configuration and order of play. In the case of four-card fifteens it can lose big. Meanwhile 9JQK is bunched up, and once in a while pone will be able to pull off a trap.

Taking all this together, I see no reason not to start with the highest min and keep 669K.
No surprises on Liam. This keep is superior to other tosses by about a full point or more. Interestingly the second best in hand+crib is 669J because of the possibility of a run – I didn’t even consider that one because QK is so weak to own crib. The cards are lame enough, and pone is far enough behind, that it would take stronger pegging considerations for me not to make the toss that is so much stronger in hand+crib.

Three paragraphs, 10 minutes to write.

   

Sunday 4:53 AM

Been said.

   

Sunday 5:44 AM

Not against the rules or against common etiquette. Happens regularly.

   

Sunday 5:46 AM

Pone is likely to send balking discards to crib

Per Ras.. “So what are the best Pone discards that can be made to dealer’s crib to minimize crib count?”..From tjhe link below you will see why dealer sending JQ has point potential

https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen7.asp

   

Sunday 5:55 AM

669K for me too. Six points, promising discard, plus the, "safety in numbers", of pegging with a pair.

   

Sunday 6:12 AM

I guess I'm not overly picky or concerned at this position, but might as well keep the sixes and the high K for defensive purposes. I especially like this decision after seeing another K pop up on the cut, which ensures us of having enough to count out, as well as lessening the odds of pone giving us an "unexpected demise".

   

Sunday 6:46 AM

Keeping six. Q-J might get more in the crib. Keeping the King as a defensive card more then a bridge in the crib. dec

   

Sunday 11:19 AM

I need to read all the comments. J vs K. I am the dealer in the end game and closing it out is the goal. Position is good with the enemy so far back. Why toss the J

   

Sunday 11:19 AM

CribEDGE agreed with the J-Q toss today.

Worried about opponent score, but default logic sufficed.
Keep: Six of Clubs, Six of Spades, Nine of Diamonds, King of Hearts
Toss: Jack of Spades, Queen of Spades
Worth: 6 / Bonus: 2

   

Sunday 12:01 PM

I think it's between 6-6-9-K (J-Q) and 9-J-Q-K (6-6) as to which will be the most successful in limiting Pone's pegging. My vote goes for 9-J-Q-K.

   

Sunday 12:07 PM

At 111*-105 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the Hold Enough %s and Pone's Pegging Points are:

Optimal________Hold Out %________Pone's Peg Pts.
6-6-9-K__________85.6_________________2.02
6-6-9-J__________80.5_________________2.02
6-6-9-Q__________77.0_________________2.02
9-J-Q-K__________76.0_________________2.20

6-6-9-K has the best chance of Holding Enough and is better than 9-J-Q-K for Pone Pegging Points so I'll select J-Q to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Sunday 2:30 PM

   

Sunday 2:35 PM

I took a minority choice today with toss 6-6. Barring the pone scoring 16 points, I win with the K spade cut and my crib is null and void!