Sunday 3:09 AM

While Keep (3 4 5 7) and Toss (A T) probably will produce the most offense, I tend to err on the defensive side of the ledger, and so I'll Keep (A 3 4 7) and Toss (5 T) today.

   

Sunday 3:28 AM

I hate to break up a run if I don't have to.

   

Sunday 3:42 AM

Like this hand. Every cut helps except the 9, with a chance for a max of 14. I think too much potential in this hand to break it up. Has a magic 11 to help with defensive pegging.

   

Sunday 3:43 AM

I like this hand and 5-T in my crib today.

   

Sunday 3:51 AM

The first two postings capture the best of these six cards. The 3-4-5-7 has a substantial edge on hand score and pegging potential. That is enough to offset the potential value of the 5-10 discard. Will defer to HalscribCLX on those exact numbers. Choosing an optimal pegging strategy, the 3-4-5-7 has the edge by a whisker. Based on scant empirical evidence, the difference between these two choices is less than .2. Opponent needs 11 to reach 4th street CPZ (95-99). So will peg in ways that seam reasonably safe not to give up runs or a possible triple. No need to exchange pegs if a ten spot is led. Play the 7 to advance the count beyond 15, likely close the count at 31 with the four. Will play off the lead. Th pegging as dealer is enhanced by the presence of the 2-card "eleven-from-heaven" and the 3-card 'sweet sixteen".

   

Sunday 4:04 AM

I like this for the reasons given above.

   

Sunday 4:16 AM

Now all we need to do is cut a four .. that did not happen so utilize that eleven and hope they slowed down. dec

   

Sunday 4:16 AM

A few options to contemplate and discuss. I'd like to try splitting up the run by discarding A-4.

A guarantee of six combined points. Only the cut of a 9 is of no immediate help, so probably more.

   

Sunday 4:44 AM

With James A-4 might lead to best results. Best for points anyway. Pegging don't know. After that I prefer A-7

   

Sunday 5:07 AM

345 stays together. The question is A7 or A10 in the crib. I went A7, and that apparently is the wrong answer. I might learn something new today.

16 degrees in northern Massachusetts. Winter came early and so much for global warming.

   

Sunday 5:09 AM

Offense on the hand score, defense with the pegging. Possible 14 hand, with a magic 11.

   

Sunday 6:05 AM

Agree with Jazzselke. Go for max points. Toss A-10; my feeling is that opponent is more likely to toss me a 4 rather than a 7/8.

   

Sunday 7:29 AM

I'm all alone tossing the A-4, which is the only discard guaranteed to result in at least 6 points. I'm behind - I need points! My second choice (and one I would have gone with if the scores were closer) was toss the A-T and keep the 3 card run.

   

Sunday 8:49 AM

I, too, go for (A 4) discard. While (5 10) averages 2 pts more than (A 4) in our crib, we're starting with 4 pts before the cut, while with (5 10) we start with only 2 pts before the cut.

We'd like to make about 14+ pts this hand/crib. With the 8 cut we look to have 6(hand) + 5(crib) = 13. So would like to peg cautious offense to make 1 or more pegging pts. Make 15s and only safe runs and pairs.

Ex if count is 11 and Opp plays a 7, pair it - he can't triple(because he would have to go over 31 to do that), so it's safe to pair. If he plays a 10, pair it for 4 safe pts! Unsafe to pair the 3 or 5 if count is 11.

   

Sunday 10:21 AM

3,4,5,7 was my first choice. But decided to do something different and see what happens.

   

Sunday 11:08 AM

Surprised to be in the minority today. None of the other tosses are worth starting with less than 6 points imo, even if a-4 is fairly lackluster. I don't believe the runs will outpeg this keep by enough to make it worth it.

I'd play offense to the cut and hope for the best.

   

Sunday 1:16 PM

Several options - 3-4-5-7 (A-10), 3-4-5-10 (A-7), 3-5-7-10 (A-4) and A-3-4-7 (5-10):

3-4-5-7: 5pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.42) = 8½pts

3-4-5-10: 5pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.85) = 8¾pts

3-5-7-10: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 9¼pts

A-3-4-7: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 8½pts

Potential:

3-4-5-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 9/12/14pts with 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 = 20 cuts.

3-4-5-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/10/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 101010 = 20 cuts.

3-5-7-10: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 84.8% up to 7/8/10pts with 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 101010 = 19 cuts.

A-3-4-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 777, 8888 = 23 cuts.

Position:

We're 2pts past positional hole and Pone is 2pts short of where they need to be. I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

All these hands will peg quite well but with a 3-card magic eleven I think A-3-4-7 will peg best.

Summary:

3-5-7-10 has the best starting value and good potential with 19 cuts for 7-10pts. A-3-4-7 starts with ¾pt less but has 23 cuts for 6-8pts which is a tremendous improvement from 2pts. It also should peg well even playing Defense. So I'll throw the 5-10.

   

Sunday 1:24 PM

At 72*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W3 %____W4 %
A-3-4-7___4.98+(-2.13)+6.63=9.48____10.9____23.8
3-4-5-10__7.98+(-2.20)+3.68=9.46____11.6____25.6
3-5-7-10__6.50+(-2.33)+5.28=9.45____11.0____26.1
3-4-5-7___8.33+(-2.13)+3.11=9.31____12.2____25.5

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
A-3-4-7______47.1____68.9
3-4-5-10_____44.5____66.3
3-5-7-10_____43.9____65.9
3-4-5-7______45.7____66.3

A-3-4-7 is best for expected averages by the slender margin of 0.02pt over 3-4-5-10 and 0.03pt over 3-5-7-10. 3-4-5-10 and 3-5-7-10 are almost equal for Win %s but 3-5-7-10 is slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select A-4 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.