Friday 3:08 AM

Best for expected averages. Start with 4 points in the hand for possibility of 11 maximum. Tossing J-Q not the best choice with today's hand.

   

Friday 3:11 AM

I'd like to try 9-J.

Friday 3:24 AM

This is where our opponent thinks throw 8-9 to keep my eight point hand? dec

   

Friday 3:26 AM

A cut of a face or a five. dec

   

Friday 3:35 AM

We have to hold all Four Points today, but we have a few options aside from the Toss (7 9).

Why not try Toss (9 J), as we're a bit more likely to 'catch' a Ten "T" from our Opponent than we are to get that 8 Card.

Our POSITION allows for this, as we are Dealer sitting one hole into the Second Street Zone, and thus one beyond 'par' which is Hole 44.

This way, we probably retain the slightly better pegging hand as Dealer, while simultaneously looking forward to an equal-or-better Crib.

   

Friday 3:41 AM

Not a fan of 7-9 to my own crib but can’t really see a better hold today-have to keep the J-Q together for the open ended shot at a 9 point hand-maybe we will get lucky and pone will throw a generally safe 8-K to our crib

   

Friday 4:07 AM

Toss 9j is close today, as the 7 will peg better. But I'm sticking with the obvious.

   

Friday 6:19 AM

7-9 seemed best to me with 34 cut cards improving points in my kept hand . I did consider 9-J toss and JQT gives solid reasoning for doing so. The K cut does not help my crib and will feel fortunate to earn 4 points from it .

   

Friday 6:48 AM

7 9 because I didn’t consider 9 J, but I think even so my first choice is the right one.

   

Friday 7:00 AM

Well I've talked about the 79 and 88 throws 3 times in the last couple weeks. Tempted to throw 9J to avoid the 79, but would be giving up too much potential with the 5JQ. So 79 it is.

   

Friday 8:52 AM

The Jazzzzzz Man has taught me not to be a fan of 7-9 to my crib. I'd rather put the touching faces in today, as every cut gives me something--small as it may be!

   

Friday 11:53 AM

7-9 is unjustly maligned by many here imho. Certainly today it is the best choice.

   

Friday 1:41 PM

I have no confidence the pone is going to help 7-9, so I'll tuck the 3-7 in the crib instead to prevent a 10 cut.

I want to be on the other side of hole 60, so I'll peg.

   

Friday 2:52 PM

I think it's between 3-5-7-Q (9-J) and 3-5-J-Q (7-9) but perhaps 3-5-7-9 (J-Q) is worth looking at as well:

3-5-7-Q: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.97) = 8pts

3-5-J-Q: 4pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.04) = 8¼pts

3-5-7-9: 2pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 6¾pts

Potential:

3-5-7-Q: Improves with 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 14xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 7/8/10pts with 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, QQQ = 20 cuts.

3-5-J-Q: Improves with 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 777 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 8/9/10pts with 2222, 4444, 555 + 14xXs = 25 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

3-5-7-9: Improves with AAAA, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888, 999 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 5/6/7/8pts with 333, 4444, 555, 777, 8888 = 17 cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt past positional hole but opponent is already 4pts past. We have the positional advantage so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

3-5-7-Q or 3-5-7-9 will peg better tan 3-5-J-Q.

Summary:

3-5-J-Q is best for starting value by ½pt but 3-5-7-Q has more cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 7-10pts. It also should peg better than 3-5-J-Q. So I'll select 9-J to discard.

   

Friday 3:01 PM

At 45*-48 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

______________Our
Offense__Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
3-5-7-Q___6.52+3.54+3.85=13.91____11.0____34.2
3-5-J-Q___6.89+2.80+4.05=13.74____12.5____35.4
5-7-J-Q___6.72+3.07+3.67=13.46____11.6____34.8
3-5-7-9___4.96+3.74+4.64=13.34____10.4____32.2

Offense______L5 %____L6 %
3-5-7-Q_______13.4____37.2
3-5-J-Q_______13.7____36.3
5-7-J-Q_______13.4____36.7
3-5-7-9_______13.8____38.9

3-5-7-Q is best for expected averages by 0.17pt but 3-5-J-Q is slightly best for Win %s and very slightly lowest for Loss %s. However as we're fairly early in the game I'll choose based on the expected averages. So I'll select 9-J to discard.

After the KC cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

   

Friday 3:24 PM

Play own position first. Needed to have the deal at holes 43-47 2nd Street CPZ. We're smack in the midle of it. Am choosing off., off., off. at all deciosn points (when looking at pegs, once seeing the six cards, and after seeing the starter card. DFealer needs ot use this hand to move down the board agressivley. BTW, based on my scant empirical evidence the 9-J discard would be the correct choice for any choice of pegging strategy (off., optimal, or def.) Yese, would pair a seven lead, if n/d tripled, close the count with the Q for 31-2. Four pegs for dealer here would be of greater value than 6 for n/d. There's not much to choose between the values of 7-9 4.064 (2,094) or 9-J 4.013 (519) to own crib as both barely break 4 points. It's the increased offensive pegging value of 3-5-7-Q that gives that hold a slight edge. Appreciate all the fine feedback this day.
Have a great Fopurth of July. Remember that he who goes forth with a fifth on the fourth may not come forth on the fifth!

   

Friday 5:21 PM

As above. Close.