Thursday 3:00 AM

The POSITION is rather bleak, since we are Pone at Hole 98, while our Opponent is Dealer at Hole 100.

Our cards give us some hope, however: even after the risky Toss (7 8) discard, we may be able to "steal" this game, since Sixteen Cuts (5, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKK) will give us Twenty or more Points, and place us within Three Holes of going out.

The FLUSH is a Wild Red Herring, so we won't even go near that today: in fact, the only idea worse than the FLUSH here would be to Toss (5 5) and NOT retain a FLUSH! But we could also consider Keep (5 5 5 7) and Toss (8 K). The problem(s) with this approach in my opinion are at least twofold:

If we Keep (5 5 5 7), now only Five Cuts (5, 6666) give us Seventeen or more Points; and yet maybe even more brutal is that, with Dealer at Hole 100, the otherwise 'safe' Toss (8 K) discard really does little or nothing to mitigate our actual predicament here.

So, let's Keep (5 5 5 K) and Toss (7 8), and try to get one of those Sixteen Cuts, as 16 DIV 46 equals 0.348 and therefore we have about a 35% chance with the Cut of just needing to peg Three Holes in order to win!

That pegging won't be easy to come by, and Dealer is likely to go out with the Crib if we don't claim VICTORY with First Hand Show, and so this probably chops those 35% odds into less than half. But 15% beats NO percent.

   

Thursday 3:14 AM

There are only two choices, 555k or 5557.

555k scores 20+ with any 5tJqk.

This puts us at 118 needing to peg 3 in two hands

5557 doesn't help us nearly so much and it's a really horrible pegging hand (as is 555k) so we should concede points here despite the economical toss. Therefore hoping to keep our foe below 21 points in two deals is not a good chance.

So we go aggressive knowing that we likely need to peg out because there's little chance with first take next deal that he doesn't reach 121.

Of course even having tossed 78 that could still happen , maybe dealer tosses JJ or something and scores only 4

So 78 just isn't as bad as the averages suggest here because those 24 point cribs that it can concede simply don't count 24 here, because dealer is nearly home. So let's not be misled by means that are impossible 21 points from home .

78 is a bad toss, to be sure, but it's BETTER here than it would be at 0-0 because it can't ever cost us the full 24 point whack.

Very clear to me today!

   

Thursday 3:32 AM

As has been said, either hold K555 and hope that the cut allows us to win/come very close during this deal, or discard K8 and keep away in an attempt to reduce our opponent's scoring over their upcoming hand-crib-hand sequence to twenty or less.

I'll try the defensive approach.

   

Thursday 3:45 AM

Go for it! As John mentions 16 cuts increases the value of the hand to 20 or more points.

   

Thursday 4:04 AM

No choice. Best bet by far?

   

Thursday 4:08 AM

What a difference their position is 94 or even 95 I might be reckon to do something like K-8 but here with a shot at winning or getting damn close shoot for the moon would regret it if that particular cut happens. Play thy position. King lead ... now what? dec

   

Thursday 4:16 AM

Gotta go for the cut for 20 here-can’t even think about getting lucky enough to cut the case 5 for the victory-dealer is 21 out which could bring the 5557 hold-K8 discard into the realm of possibilities,but that hand pegs horribly as pone-you basically have to sacrifice giving up 4 points so as not to get totally demolished in pegging-so that kinda throws a monkey wrench into our defensive strategy

   

Thursday 5:21 AM

Going for the grandslam. Lead a 5.

   

Thursday 6:09 AM

My compliments to all the optimists above who have attempted to show the way with their Dunkirk spirit. As for me, i should have played better earlier to perhaps have avoided the board position i am now in.

Thursday 6:32 AM

K cut and I only need to Peg 1

   

Thursday 6:43 AM

Have to go for it.

   

Thursday 7:03 AM

With 15 X cards unaccounted for, the most logical choice is to play for the starter card. This hand can be a pegging nightmare if you don't lead a 5.

   

Thursday 8:05 AM

Grunch: I could not see beyond the 555K. I did consider ditching 2 fives and keeping C578K but having just watched Ras's lesson on 78 there really was nothing to do but let pone have 78 and do what he can with it.

   

Thursday 10:38 AM

re zeke72: my nom de plume. Putting two opposites together to get a name is common enough. Perhaps, most famously the rock band Led Zeppelin. A Zeppelin made of Lead would not fly!

   

Thursday 10:56 AM

With 16 cards available to score 20, 22, or 28 points and dealer at hole 100, it's off., off., and once seeing the deuce starter card a downshift to defense. Lead the 5C and drop another five next play. Dealer will sometimes pair the second card played if knowing of three.
Not much hope for a win here with 14 points in hand and limited pegging potential unless dealer pairs the second five dropped. Have to hope that dealer has no more than ten points (pegs, hand, and crib scores). What are chances of that? That's 1 of 7.5 (about 15%). Slim odds though not beyond the realm of possibility. No time for despair. Play for the win.

   

Thursday 4:04 PM

It's a bleak situation. There are 15 more X cards out there, let's hope. After the 2 cut, time for another drink.

   

Thursday 4:58 PM

5-5-5-K (7-8) will be hard to beat I think the only possible alternative is playing Defense keeping 5-5-5-7 and throwing 8-K:

5-5-5-K: 14pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.63) = +6½pts

5-5-5-7: 8pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.20) = +3¾pts

Potential:

5-5-5-K: Improves with 5 + 15xXs = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 47.5% up to 20/22/28pts with all cuts.

5-5-5-7: Improves with 3333, 5, 6666, 777, 888 + 15xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 14/17/20pts with 3333, 5, 6666.

Position:

We need 23pts to go out so I'll play Offense. If we don't go out this time we may well peg out next deal.

Pegging:

Both hands will peg well.


Summary:

5-5-5-K has a starting value 2¾pts more than 5-5-5-7 and although it has fewer cuts for improvement it has 20 for 20-28pts. So I'll throw the 7-8.

   

Thursday 5:01 PM

At 98-100* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense__Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total____W1 %_____W2 %
5-5-5-K___16.28+0.91+(-7.16)=10.03____12.4_____26.8
5-5-5-7___11.78+1.15+(-3.56)= 9.37_____1.3_____26.9

Offense______L1 %_____L2 %
5-5-5-K_______24.6_____64.4
5-5-5-7________8.4_____63.7

5-5-5-K is 0.66pt better for expected averages and very much better for Win %s. Although 5-5-5-7 is very much lower for Loss %s because of the much safer 8-K as we're playing Offense I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead a 5 and play Offense:

Lead________Our Pegging Pts.
5________________0.97
K________________0.93