Yesterday's results

*** This hand was suggested by JQT
99*-110  ?
35%
17%
15%
10%
8%
5%
3%
2%
0%
Total votes: 288
Gougie00
5667 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:13 AM
I wish I knew the 8 would be cut. I split my 5-5. Nice having an extra one. Gotta peg aggressive.
mrob2199
1375 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:29 AM
Very interesting puzzle today-especially with the respective positions-we need 22 while holding the pone to 10-this hold provides the best flexibility to limit pones pegging( albeit not very much but a non picture even a 9 could get us out of potential trouble-we have the Q5 in the crib so any picture will hit both hands and give us a chance to get that 22 points
glmccuskey says: I agree but as I post this we at 3%. Surprising.
zeke76
1332 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:41 AM
Kept the fives together, hoping to seed a run in the crib.
Samgash
382 votes

Joined: November 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:57 AM
Opponent 11 holes out - trying to give up less during the play.
dec
6287 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:29 AM
I went for the big bang here. Three ways both hands or a very good size one with either hand. I feel unless a bust by the opponent they will be very close if they do not get in on this count. Defense off the lead. dec
horus93
1237 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:47 AM
Seems like a lot of the time in a situation like this, if I say “well I need a big score I’ll do something different”, this line of thought turns out to be wrong. Usually the hand that is normally best overall, is either best for a big score too, or not far south and more reliable at the lower end.

So it’s 55JQ (9T) or 5TJQ (59) or 59TJ (5Q), and I like the middle choice. My gut says “five is way better placed with TJQ than 9TJ, and that should outweigh the 59 vs 5Q crib factor; 55JQ should be close too but pegging will be what leads me away from that one”. And I’ve come across hands like these so many times so I figure it’ll be close in hand+crib between 55JQ and 5TJQ.

Checking Liam for straight hand+crib means, my keep is basically tied with the 55JQ (9T) (Liam claims a 0.1 edge for mine); 5Q is further off than I would have thought, -0.5 or -0.6. And I think this will be a somewhat safer pegger (two fives for dealer are open to many more traps); on offense, it misses out on a potential triple with the five exchange; but this keep is perhaps more likely to trap a face or nine in the second series. And the biggest, most likely albeit not very exciting offensive feature for either is a relatively safe 15 on a X lead and they’re obviously even on that.

Distributions make me even more confident this is the way to go. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve failed to count out from even 113 or 114 – 111 is a poor target, and this also btw means that “being on par” is a poor target in earlier game. Given our guaranteed peg, say we’d really want at least 13 points in hand+crib (that gets us to at least 113). Toss 59 will accomplish this 90% of the time; toss 9T? 76%. Hitting 15 points we’d have little to fear for counting out on next; this will hit min 15 61% of the time, vs 58% for 9T (okay okay not a big gap, probably within margin of error). For counting out entirely, i.e. hitting min 21 in hand+crib, Liam thinks this is perfectly tied with toss 9T.

Cut could be better, I’ll still peg defensively. However I will fifteen a X lead, not only for the points, but also because when a five is joined with high ranks, and you try to hold it, a lot of the time you end up giving up points anyway.
Eolus619
1278 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:00 AM
Based on board position I’m deciding to break two rules today…big hand rule and “don’t look for a favorable cut.” Split the 5s looking for a cut turbo boost both hand & crib. I even lit a cribbage candle in hopes the cribbage fairy would look favorably on my plight..and…not so ….as is too often the case.
mfetchCT425
1372 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:02 AM
Like the 5s together here and touchers in the crib.
Sgt Pegger says: I'm with Mike today. I had the exact same thoughts.
glmccuskey
4041 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:23 AM
Agree with Rob
sterno
416 votes

Joined: December 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:29 AM
Interesting puzzle this morning.... JQT is once again dangling a shiny object, this case a pair of fives and a four card run. Positionwise I am behind and the game is slipping away. I need a good hand (and a good crib) to pull this out. 5-9 away.

An 8 cut... who cuts an 8? Outside of the herd which valued keeping the fives together.
Looking at Liam.... Top three choices are very close together accross the Avg, Min, and HM...

james500
3860 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:33 AM
Better 5-? discards exist than 5-9, but I'm guaranteed 9+2 = 11 points this way.
SallyAnn3
855 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:34 AM
I spilt the 5's this way. I see how I'd been better off tossing the Q instead of the 9
wasa
2957 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:49 AM
Tricky one today. Pondered keeping the 5-5, tossing the 5-5, and splitting the 5-5. Decided to go for max points as if opponent doesn't get their 11 points I need all I can get to win
Hawthorn
401 votes

Joined: January 2023

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:49 AM
I've also gone for the 5-Q toss today. My immediate priority was to minimise the chances of the opponent counting out, and then to see whether I could do this in a way that would still leave open winning chances for me.
bbaer1
3632 votes

Joined: February 2011

 
 
 
Wednesday 8:07 AM
Went this way thinking LMHH would avoid n+2 on the back.
guideontheside
290 votes

Joined: July 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 12:02 PM
I figured this gives me the best options for defense, while still a chance at offense.
MiketheExpert
1059 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Wednesday 12:32 PM
Very tough one, with pone at 110 - I don't have a lot of wiggle room here. I'm going to throw (5 Q), because I think the variety of high cards with the 9 will allow me to maneuver around the pegs most efficiently. I did consider throwing (9 10) and keeping (5 5 J Q) also. Having two 5's may not be as dangerous as appearances suggest, although you slightly worry about getting a 5 trapped or having to lead one. Don't expect to get 22 points between hand, crib, and pegging after this cut, which appears not to aid the crib and only gives modest improvement to the hand. Pure defense on the pegging, and hope to see another deal - odds are against us as will be very tough to hold current pone back from peg-out range.
RubyTuesday
872 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Wednesday 12:35 PM
5 9 to my crib, for the reasons others did so. Now not so sure that 5 Q wouldn’t have been better though!
horus93 says: Yeah it's not obvious to me that 59tj is so much safer in the pegging than 5tjq as to make up for poorer scoring (about 10% lower for 13+ for example) but... maybe it is
Ras2829
5092 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 1:28 PM
With n/d at hole 110, will choose an optimal strategy. That favors the 5-Q discard. Will play off the lead although would 15-2 a X-point lead, the latter not likely because of the 5-5-X-X-X in dealer hand. Otherwise avoid pegs. If dealer average of 16 points will be at hole 115 if n/d does not score 11 points. Tough assignment here anyway you slice it as n/d is likely to be very close to end of board with dealer pegging advantage upcoming. Second choice would have been 5-9.
Coeurdelion
5544 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Wednesday 2:30 PM
I'll compare 5-10-J-Q (5-9), 5-9-10-J (5-Q), 9-10-J-Q (5-5) and 5-5-J-Q (9-10):

5-10-J-Q: 9pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 14¼pts

5-9-10-J: 7pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 13½pts

9-10-J-Q: 4pts + 8¾pts (Schell: 8.79) = 12¾pts

5-5-J-Q: 10pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.29) = 14¼pts

Potential:

5-10-J-Q: Improves with 55, 999 + 13xXs = 18 cuts = 18/46 = 39.1% up to 12/16/17pts with 55 + 13xXs = 15 cuts. Plus 11 spade cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

5-9-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 55, 6666, 8888, 999 + 13xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 10/12/13/14pts with 55, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQ = 14 cuts. Plus 11 spade cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

9-10-J-Q: Improves with 55, 6666, 8888, 999 + 13xXs = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 10pts with 55, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQ = 14 cuts. Plus 11 spade cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt. Plus 11 spade cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

5-5-J-Q: Improves with 55 + 13xXs = 15 cuts = 15/46 =
32.6% up to 16/17/20pts with all cuts. Plus 11 spade cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

We're 3pts past 4th street positional hole while Pone only needs 11pts to go out. I'll play Defense and hope Pone doesn't score enough. With a very good hand and a reasonable crib we could go out this deal needing 22pts.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think it may be awkward with any of these hands.

Summary:

5-10-J-Q and 5-5-J-Q both have the best starting value by ¾pt over 5-9-10-J. 5-5-J-Q has fewer cuts for improvement but has 15 cuts for 16-20pts compared to 15 cuts for 12-17pts with 5-10-J-Q and in this position a good/very good hand could be critical. So I'll throw the 9-10.
HalscribCLX
5265 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 2:30 PM
At 99*-110 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense____Hand__Pegs____Crib_Total____W1 %____W2 %
5S-10-J-Q___11.28+(-2.13)+5.21=14.36____22.8____42.1
5-5-J-Q_____12.52+(-2.15)+3.91=14.28____23.4____42.0
5-9-10-J_____9.54+(-2.02)+6.26=13.78____16.4____39.4
5-5-10-Q____12.02+(-2.15)+3.55=13.42____15.3____38.8
5-5-10-J____12.46+(-2.20)+2.82=13.08____14.0____38.3
9-10-J-Q_____6.41+(-2.22)+8.35=12.54____16.5____41.5

Defense________L1 %____L2 %
5S-10-J-Q_______40.7____49.8
5-5-J-Q_________39.1____49.5
5-9-10-J________41.7____53.9
5-5-10-Q________39.0____54.9
5-5-10-J________39.3____55.7
9-10-J-Q________34.9____54.9

5S-10-J-Q is best for expected averages by 0.08pt. over 5-5-J-Q but 5-5-J-Q is very slightly best for Win %s and appreciably lowest for Loss %s. So in this critical end of game board position I'll decide based on the Win/Loss %s and select 9-10 to discard.

After the 8S cut I'll play a SAFE pegging strategy to the lead.
MiketheExpert says: Well, it seems 5-9-10-J is indeed safest for pegs, but both 5S-10-J-Q and 5-9-10-J are better for total hand + crib points than is 5-5-10-J. Don't know again what makes the Win/Loss %'s the way it is - but all other things being equal, I still like the pick that offers the most "pone pegs" protection without knowing any better.
MiketheExpert says: Oops, it was 5-5-J-Q with (9 10) throw the other option I considered (HAL's pick), not 5-5-10-J.