Friday 3:16 AM

I like if a five gets cuts both hands might acelerate here. I need the chance to get twenty plus here. Now I might need to play some d here. dec

   

Friday 3:27 AM

Toss (T J) also seems good.

   

Friday 3:56 AM

We need a good hand here but we also need to keep the pone at bay-this hold provides us with the best defensive pegging hand while it also is helped by most cuts-a jack or queen cut could cost us a 16 point hand but it also could be a 10 hand with a possible 8 crib-peg this hand very defensively-we dont want the pone to get to 95 if we can help it

   

Friday 4:19 AM

I didn’t go with the flush today as I need points and felt that this was the better way to get them.

   

Friday 4:21 AM

Like the Flush as it has the most cuts for improvement and harder to read by opponent. toss J-Q higher value than 3-7 to crib and holding 5-T-J-Q.

   

Friday 5:11 AM

I like the JQ to the crib and it only costs us 1 starting point in the hand. Lousy cut.

   

Friday 5:39 AM

I'll play it this way. I went with the flush as well. Down 13, I'll attack.

   

Friday 5:48 AM

Earlier in the game at say a neutral position, would keep the 5-10-J-Q for chance of a 16/17 hand, but at this position, I think the more important goal is to hold opponent back as much as we can so that they are not dealing from good position on 4th street (ie, try to keep them behind hole 95). The flush hold is a much more flexible pegging hand and has lots of cuts for improvement. Plus, the touching J-Q can often catch something in the crib.

   

Friday 6:06 AM

This was an easier decision than if I was the pone.

I took a guess with the T-J and the cut helped me out. But the J-Q may have been the better choice considering how often Kings are discarded.

I considered 5-T-J-Q, but I discounted it because 7-3 in a dealers crib does not usually get too much from the pone.

   

Friday 6:29 AM

A few flushes available, or maybe 5-10-J-Q.

3-7-10-Q (5-J) allows a lovely discard but a poor hand. I'll pass.

Pone has a bias towards discarding Kings, so a speculative J-Q to my crib may bear fruit. If I choose 10-J however, only the cut of an Ace is unhelpful, whereas 3-5-7-T (J-Q) is unaffected by the cuts of an Ace or a 9.

5-7-10-Q (J-3) won't improve after cuts of an Ace,4 or 9. Places two of Ras' "Key connectors" in my crib though.

3-5-10-Q (7-J) won't improve after an Ace,6 or 9. Two more Key connectors to the crib, but there's no synergy between a Jack and 7, so I'd be sabotaging my crib this way I feel.

"Boom or bust" with 5-10-J-Q. Most of the cuts that help REALLY help, but there's plenty that miss altogether. Discards that total 10, 5-5 being the exception, tend to do little due to Pone's bias against discarding fives. In today's puzzle we already know that one of them is out of circulation too, so we're even less likely to cut one. I'll pass on 3-7 then, even though I'd have nine points before the cut compared to just eight with the various flushes.

   

Friday 6:59 AM

More versatile hand, usually prefer JQ over 10J because of the tendency to have Kings tossed. Facecards that help the 510JQ hold will help our JQ throw.

   

Friday 7:17 AM

73* - 86
I go for 3-5-7-10(flush) discard J-Q.
Starts with 8 pts and puts useful touching cards in crib. J-Q averages 4.8 pts there
Hand/crib could well grow to 17-18 pts. Enough to substantially reduce the distance between us and Opp - especially if he gets a sub-par hand.

   

Friday 7:19 AM

Today's my Friday 6-game match. I'll try to do better than I did last week, folks. More later.

   

Friday 7:56 AM

I like it this way. Checking discardpro I'm surprised J-Q is a better toss to own crib than T-J but I suppose it reflects pone's tendency to chuck a king.

It's a marginal position so we have dual goals. We ideally want to get as far past 86 as we can while holding pone as short of 10 points as we can.

   

Friday 8:19 AM

We need to move but also keep pone from 95. think this does it.

   

Friday 10:26 AM

What's not to like about this lovely flush? Folks tend to think of all those X-pointers (toss in the five too), those cards amount to 5 of the 13 denominations. That's a 61/39 split favoring the cut of something other than a five or ten. The 3-7 to own crib is quite low scoring as well at 3.333 (619). Only a non-club A/9 does not add value to the flush. Holding 5-10-J-Q, A, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8 add nothing. Choosing an off., off., off. pegging strategy although will play off the opening lead unless a X-pointer. Would play that lone 5 to score 2 pegs. How do the 10-J and J-Q compare as discards to own crib?

   

Friday 4:40 PM

My 6 games. Only lost my 2nd game. 116-121. Won all the others. Was doing OK in the 2nd, when Gerald(my Opp), at the end of the game, got a 20 pt hand as pone followed followed by 16 dealer. All I could reach was 116.

If my goal is to be 1st - I failed. If my goal is to be in the top 3(they all win some money) - I succeeded. I think top 3 is a reasonable goal given there are 20+ players. I came 2nd today. The guy who sits to my right(Kirk) won every game for 1st.

So - for Sep so far, 2 of 3 Fridays I'm in the top 3. Not bad!

I recorded this hand(against Gerald, as it happens):

28-7* I'm holding: A-A-3-5-7-8. What to discard? I eventually chose the A-8 discard, keeping A-3-5-7, banking on that every cut helps it. And that I stood a chance to get close to 44 as dealer next hand, especially if we pegged more than normal. Gerald and I both did about 10-12 pts of pegging - I pegged a couple more. Ever-growing runs. I think the score at the end of the hand was 43* - 30.(Didn't record that. Nor the cut card - sorry)

I asked Gerald how he would have discarded - he said the 3-7, keeping A-A-5-8.

Who was right? Maybe there's a 3rd discard better than either of those 2?

My report for today :-)

   

Friday 4:48 PM

I think it must be between 5-10-J-Q and 3-5-7-Q (10-J):

5-10-J-Q: 9pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.58) = 12½pts

3-5-7-Q: 8pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.61) = 12¾pts

Potential:

5-10-J-Q: Improves with 555, 9999 + 13xXs = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 12/16/17pts with 555 + 13xXs = 16 cuts. Plus 12 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

3-5-7-Q: Improves with 2222, 333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 13xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 11/12/14pts with 333, 555, 6666, 777, QQQ = 16 cuts. Plus 8 clubs for 1pt extra for the flush = 8/46 = 0.17pt.

Position:

We're 3pts past positional hole and Pone is on target to reach next positional hole. So I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Pegging.

I think the flush will peg better and be harder to read.

Summary:

The flush starts with ¼pt more and also has more cts for improvement. It has a lower maximum but still 16 cuts for 11-14pts. Also it should peg better. So I'll select 10-J to discard.

   

Friday 4:49 PM

At 73*-86 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
5-10-J-Q__11.50+(-2.15)+3.72=13.07____25.7____31.0
3-5-7-10__10.65+(-2.33)+4.45=12.77____24.3____29.9
3-5-7-Q___10.65+(-2.28)+4.12=12.49____23.0____29.3

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
5-10-J-Q______52.7____58.8
3-5-7-10______54.3____60.5
3-5-7-Q_______53.9____61.4

5-10-J-Q is best for expected averages by 0.30pt and is also best for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 3-7 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.