Monday 3:23 AM

I want that first choice instead. 8 7 6 5 2, preferred cuts. Might still be both on first street after this hand. Seven lead play on probably. dec

   

Monday 3:51 AM

I am at a loss with today's hand. It doesn't make sense to me toss 7-7 or 3-3 to opponent and only hold 6 or 4 points respectively.

Using Ras's value for the discards, 3-3 comes out ahead for expected averages and the most cuts for improvement.

Took the really safe decision and tossed 3-9 but is that the way to go?

   

Monday 4:52 AM

Plenty of helpful cuts for me, and plenty of negative delta for Dealer.

6+7+3=16 so maybe:
6(6)-X(16)-7(23)-5(28)-3(31/2).

If Dealer has no 5 only X's, then:
6(6)-X(16)-7(23)-go-7(30/2+1).

   

Monday 5:50 AM

I need the points ... I think ...

The next sound you hear is the crib going BOOM.

A chilly 13 degrees here in Northern Massachusetts.

   

Monday 6:38 AM

I need a few points in this position so it’s 3-3 not 7-7 for me. I’ll lead the seven of spades and will be forced to mix it up if my opponent has middle cards.

   

Monday 7:05 AM

I may not get to the board position I need, but I can hopefully slow the dealer down by blanking his crib. The King may be just what the doctor ordered. Lead the 7.

   

Monday 7:21 AM

I need to make sure and hit my par and that means giving my opponent a discard that I dread...

   

Monday 7:39 AM

Not much of net difference between 7-7 and 3-9, but 7-7 is a smidgen better.

   

Monday 8:19 AM

It looks like we were game’s starting Dealer, and scored less than average, while our opponent did better. We are + 5. S/he is - 6. Optimal strategy I think means making sure we reach 18 or better as Dealer next hand.

Look at it this way. Even if the Dealer scores 5 over average because of our generous toss, we know we will still have board position with a guaranteed 6 points minimum. A very tenuous board position. But board position none the less. Of course if s/he scores 24 in the crib... But let’s not go there.

After giving away a pair of key connectors; something I rarely do; it’s defense for me. I’ll lead the 3s, and fake the flush with the 9 next if it seems safe.

   

Monday 8:58 AM

Minority report: I thought 3-9 was too defensive, 3-3 and 7-7 too dangerous.

   

Monday 9:39 AM

I don't think 3 - 9 unsuited is too defensive at all. More like paying a small insurance premium against something unpleasant happening!!

   

Monday 1:27 PM

I'm with glmccuskey. Want to keep 4 points to insure getting to 17. Dealer is about 5 short. Hopefully that will give my 3-3 in his crib a cushion.

   

Monday 3:37 PM

Three ways to go I think 3-3-6-9 (7-7), 6-7-7-9 (3-3) or 3-6-7-7 (3-9):

3-3-6-9: 6pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 7.14) = -½pt

6-7-7-9: 4pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.68) = -2½pts

3-6-7-7: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.87) = -2¾pts

Potential:

3-3-6-9: Improves with 33, 666, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 12/14/16pts with all cuts.

6-7-7-9: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 5555, 666, 77, 8888, 999 = 24 cus = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/10/16pts with 2222, 666, 77, 8888, 999 = 16 cuts.

3-6-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 5555, 666, 77, 8888, 999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 6/12pts with 2222, 5555, 666, 77 = 13 cuts.

Pegging:

I think probaly 3-6-7-7 will peg best perhaps playing offense or defense.

Position:

It looks like we were First Pone. I'll continue to play Defense.

Summary:

6-7-7-9 and 3-6-7-7 both have more cuts for improvement but 3-3-6-9 starts with 2/2¼pts more with 8 cuts for 12-16pts. Playing Defense 3-3-6-9 should also peg well. So although its a very risky discard I'll throw 7-7.

   

Monday 4:55 PM

This is the second hand from a game in which I had the opening deal. Picked up these cards and gasped audibly. How do you play def., def., def.? As dealer of first hand, needed 7 points to have 50/50 chance to win. So it's keep six points and discard the dangerous 7-7. At least the King starter card seems not to be of help to that powerful pair. As Inushtuk1 points out, opponent has the deal 5-6 holes short; the 7-7 averages 6.925 to opponent crib. RAS wants to deal the next hand from minimum of 18. Am there so will lead 3s. If choosing an offense pegging strategy, would have led the 6 and retained the treys.

   

Monday 4:58 PM

At 13-12* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total___W8 %____W9 %
3-3-6-9___7.35+(-2.57)+(-6.50)=(-1.72)__30.6____41.8
3S-6-7-7__4.91+(-2.78)+(-4.28)=(-2.15)__25.3____39.5
3-3-7-9___5.79+(-2.28)+(-5.75)=(-2.25)__26.2____39.0
6-7-7-9___6.78+(-2.72)+(-6.42)=(-2.36)__29.5____40.7

Defense______L8 %____L9 %
3-3-6-9______32.3____34.2
3S-6-7-7_____26.8____34.4
3-3-7-9______30.5____36.2
6-7-7-9______32.1____35.2

3-3-6-9 is best for expected averages by 0.43pt and it is appreciably best for Win %s although 3-6-7-7 is best for Loss %s because of the safer 3-9 discard. Even so I'll select 7-7 to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead the 3S and play Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3_________________(-2.10)
9_________________(-2.57)
6_________________(-2.68)