Yesterday's results

*** This hand was suggested by Eldoran
13-18*  ?
50%
23%
18%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 275
Ras2829
5214 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:34 AM
Choosing offense as n/d at hole 13, it's offense and 5-9-10-J is best hold to do that minus the crib score. Can't discard 5-J to hold one point more in hand. That 5-J averages 8.136 on that side of the board. Will seldom work to retain a hand of 8 points and give up a crib discard of 8+. Will lead the five, keeping 9-10-J intact. If dealer scores 15-2 with 10 or J, safely pair. Will take any pegs offered although hand is of poor pegging prospects. On average these cards will not peg two points for n/d.
Annabella says: Thank you, I like your info& reasoning. It is helpful. 100,000 + samples would be needed before you saw your % change. It’s reverse exponentiation. Have a good day!
cribbagepogo says: How many 24 cribs do you give up with a pair of 8's in the dealer's crib?
MiketheExpert says: I think more on some online sites that should be the case, and I'm pretty sure it's more than just a feeling: It feels like it should be a rare event, and although I wouldn't toss (8 8) particularly often, I don't feel it should happen more than 1% of the time. In retrospect, I wish I recorded some of my online experiences with certain "specific" discards, because it is feeling like it is happening maybe 1/20 or 1/25 times. How much does that translate to specifically as a number? I may have tossed it 70-80 times over a long stretch of time, and I feel like I've given up 4-5. Btw, I wonder if there is such a thing as beginner's luck on certain cribbage sites. I had to delete my cookies and created a new ID on cardsio.com, and ever since I have been getting some crazy cuts and good fortune. When I examine my own discards and those of the person I'm playing, I'm confident that the site "sets up" pre-existing scenarios at random which highly depend upon the "good" choice or the "bad" choice selected, maybe for both players. If you're going through too good of a stretch, it will then "reverse" the odds on you, putting you into the fire, and giving you the "tough" cards...Nah, it couldn't be if it was truly random. Even through a relatively short stretch of 55 games under the new ID, I've won a ridiculous 40 games, which seems too good to be true, even for this small sample size. I fully expect to get knocked back to my 60% average over the next 50 :)
Ras2829 says: Hi cribbagepogo: of the 205 times discarded to opponent crib 6 have been of 20 points or more. That's 3/100: 1/8 have been 12 or more. Admittedly 8-8 is dangerous discard although does score 2 points 27.282%. The 8-8 is nine times as likely to score 2 points as to tally 12 or more in live play. Joy to the world!
Ras2829 says: If choosing defense as an approach to the pegging as HalscribCLX has done this day, by all means break the upper sequence by leading the 10-spot. If dealer scores 15-2, play the 9 for 24. If dealer does not score 15-2 on lead, try to drop the five as second card played. If following those guides on pegging response, n/d may just give up a dealer "go". My choice on pegging was offense and the lead of the five, and I see no reason to downshift to defense.
Jason19
369 votes

Joined: March 2023

 
 
 
Thursday 3:46 AM
It's early and didn't want to give up double run. Gotta get up the board.
RubyTuesday
956 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Thursday 3:56 AM
I’m not far enough behind to need to keep the double run, so 8 8 went to dealer.
kal79
73 votes

Joined: April 2024

 
 
 
Thursday 4:22 AM
This is not the way we want to start the game! We were outscored by 5 as dealer on opening hand, and pone hit their par number per Colvert’s 26 theory. I think a handful of commenters will take an offensive stance here to take back control of the game, but I’m going the other direction. I think we need to wait for a better offensive hand to attack…this one just gives us too much trouble.

So, bye 8-J, nonsuited. I’ll lead the 9 and only take safe pegs, if I’m offered any. If things go well for us, we regain the deal with a less than 10 point deficit and hopefully we see some cards with a little more pegging potential.
kal79 says: I really don’t like discarding a Jack as pone, giving away the potential nobs point. But, to prevent a dangerous discard, I think the defensive trade off is there.
fentesk
1260 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 4:47 AM
I came down to 8-8 or J-8. I ended up choosing defense, but even while doing it felt like I should take the offensive risk. I would do 8-8 here over J-5. I'll probably be pushed to all offense or all defense for the next hands based on how this ends, but J-8 is unlikely to completely take me out of the game.
dec
6434 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 5:43 AM
it appears we were non dealer first. I would like to risk 8-8 but I will go conservative and still have chances for twelve here. Here in north country of New Hampshire saw a record 70 degrees for Mt. Washington yesterday. dec
Gougie00
5789 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 6:02 AM
Okay then. I was worried I was making another foolish decision tossing 88. Behind in position and points, cannot toss 8-J. Reluctant to toss the lit dynamite J-5 in his crib. Tossing the 8-8 change-up and hoping to get away with it.

Got the A/C unit on already. It might hit 100 here in Northern Massachusetts.
Ras2829 says: Hi Gougie00: It's 57 here near the mighty Pacific.. Been cool with average daytime temperatures in May at 62, down from the average 71 of prior years. Only one day in June over 80 and none projected over next 10 days. I like it although some folks haven't put away the winter underwear.
Eolus619
1399 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Thursday 6:03 AM
Only considered 8-8 & 8-J…Tossing 5-J which averages 7+ to keep eight ..not for me today..Keep..5-8-9-10 starts with five points and has cut help from 11/13 ranks. Keep 5-9-10-J starts with seven but gives up a sure two points in the crib when tossing 8-8 & gets cut help from 9/13 ranks. 8-8 is the 4th highest average points of pairs across the board. Understand 5-9-10-J has most cuts for 12/14 points. Either keep does not lend itself to pegging offense imo. But 8-8 , at this board position is too dangerous for me. With 7..maybe even 8 hands left, I will try to overcome my current disadvantage . See Ras went 8-8..so food for thought… as his choices always are.
MiketheExpert says: Hi Eolus, I am sharing your post today, hope you don't mind :) I read that we are the dealer today for some reason, and I was wondering about the obviousness of the (5 J) toss, and why this was a puzzle....Now I understand. So to avoid the "double-comment" embarrassment of switching my vote, I'll vote for the (8 8) (just barely over the 8 J), with the fact that dealer is just borderline into position, but neither is our position that great, so I want to play offense but with caution. The (8 J) is a safer crib throw, but since it is a J and not a Q or K, while at the same giving me an uncomfortable lead, I think the increased hand value of (5 9 10 J) will compensate (usually) for this risk. The Q cut is one of the best I could hope for.
Eolus619 says: Hi MtE..welcome anytime!!..you, Ras, Gougie00 Inush.....etc.certainly must consider the 8-8 in the future with that crowd doing it
MiketheExpert says: I prefer the J lead slightly over the 5 - just don't want to give the easy 15-2, although there is still a risk no matter what the lead. I'm banking on a go and maybe scoring later with the 5, rather than the 50% chance of pulling even if I give up an early 15-2.
Ras2829 says: Hi MiketheExpert: If not leading the five, would lead the 9. Too many folks pair the dealer five after the 15-2, then it's often "go". Who knows what will ensue?
MiketheExpert says: Hi Ras. I don't think I would pair in this spot either if goes 15-2 on my Jack lead. I may actually play the 9 next if this were to occur, thinking at least a 6 is likely to come. I am more hoping I can play 2 high cards to earn a go, and possibly playing the 5 into dealer's lead on the 2nd round.
wasa
3073 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Thursday 6:08 AM
Similar to Eolus, I pondered tossing 8-8 vs 8-J. I'm not tossing 5-J to hold 8-8-9-T (but would consider tossing 5-J if I was holding 7-7-8-8 or 7-8-8-9).

Cut appears not to help the crib so yay!
hecklebush
210 votes

Joined: February 2022

 
 
 
Thursday 6:11 AM
I went with the majority, tossing the 5-J to my opponent. The cut was not in my favor. I played this out on CribPro, and my opponent scored 8 in the hand, a 17 point crib, and paired his 6 to 31 for another 4 points!
Inushtuk1
1542 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 6:16 AM
Offense but not tossing (5-J) to keep an 8 point Double Run. I'd have to have 12 points in my hand to do that. Lead the 5.
Inushtuk1 says: Had I been approaching a critical board position on 3rd or 4th Street I would have kept the safer 5-8-9-10(8-J). But there's plenty of real estate left if the (8-8) blows up in my face.
Sgt Pegger
331 votes

Joined: July 2017

 
 
 
Thursday 6:45 AM
I see no need to be so risky in the toss to the pone's crib in this board position. As noted above, it appears that both of us are struggling anyway. It will be a game time decision on whether I lead the 8 or the 9.
horus93
1325 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Thursday 7:39 AM
I'm throwing a balk at this relative position. Playing offense here does not really make sense - the way these people are thinking, "well dealer is already at par, I can only hope to catch up" - is why I refer to their systems as "candyland", because they act like the whole game changes because someone is at par, and don't understand that oppo can score below average, especially if you throw balks and play carefully (I'd say in that case they actually *usually* score below average). Also that our hopes of catching up in the front are extremely slim. The logic here is simple and I've explained it at length before, no need to recount all of that, it's straight Schell anyway. In college we learned about "invincible ignorance" and this seems to be the case with some.

However I do see a case for 88. The reason is that if you play TOO defensively, you tend to fall off course "in the back", i.e. maybe I'm dealer next hand at 20* that's only four points north of par, not much of a buffer. I still think 88 is too risky though. Defense to that cut, lead the eight. My hope is that the score next hand will be like 20*-30, and then I get strong enough cards to sustain defense; or if not will probably get away with a bit of offense. I get it this is super advanced and arcane stuff, right?
horus93 says: Oh and some numbers on 88 - it will give up an 8+ crib about 30% of the time. That said, if you consider a crib of 5 or less as having "gotten away with it", you have near a 50/50 shot of getting away with it. Still this position is quite defensive, enough that I'd rather throw the 8J which has good prospects as a balk especially with this delta. If oppo has an average hand and a 0-2 point crib, we're in it to win it and may even be able to switch to playing on (not to catch up in the front, which is almost impossible, pace Ras, but to shore up our surplus). 8J will give a 0-3 point crib about 40% of the time here. Ras likes to report his own numbers, but his sample sizes for things like 88 across the board are too small to be useful.
Ras2829 says: Hi horus93; Have discarded 8-8 and recorded results 1,706 times in live play, admittedly less than 300 of those were to opponent crib. Would like to have 10,000 samples. Of the 91 discards no more than .05 of a point variation occurred on posting new data once surpassing 200 samples.
fentesk says: For reference, when I took Ras's frequencies for all discards and used them as a weighting factor and then ran them each against every possible discard (again weighted) and all cuts, I got the following for 8-8 to opponent's crib. 2 points 17.3% ; 2-4 points 40.7% ; 8+ points 32.7% ; 12+ points 19.4%. The main assumption here is that Ras's tracking of 87,111 discards to opponent's crib (I believe against top level players?) is a large enough sample size to determine how often something is discarded. The analysis I added then extends these discard frequencies to how they would perform at those frequencies against every other possible discard and cut. I'll add 8-J and 5-J values below for those interested.
fentesk says: For 8-J to opponent's crib: 0 points 5.3%; 0-2 points 28.0%; 0-4 points 55.1%; 8+ points 15.0%; 12+ points 3.2%.
fentesk says: For 5-J to opponent's crib: 2 points 1.9%; 0-4 points 20.7%; 8+ points 48.4%; 12+ points 12.1%. I do not know that I would have guessed 8-8 would have significantly more 12+ hands than 5-J. I see C. Liam Brown's algorithm agrees directionally.
Ras2829 says: Hi fentesk: According to my empirical data 8-8 to opponent crib scores 12+ 13.757%, and 5-J does so 6.35%. Am not surprised by that as 7-8 is by far the most frequent of the 91 discards to dealer crib. Even so, this day calls for pitching 8-8.
Assman
40 votes

Joined: May 2024

 
 
 
Thursday 9:28 AM
Another intriguing puzzle. I threw the 8-8 combo. Keeping the double run is tempting, but that means giving the opponent a huge opportunity with at J-5 in her crib. Not gonna do it. Good cut. Have a great day!
Coeurdelion
5644 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Thursday 2:49 PM
I'll look at 8-8-9-10 (5-J), 5-8C-9-10 (8S-J), 5-9-10-J (8-8) and 5-8-8-10 (9-J):

8-8-9-10: 8pts - 8pts (Schell: 7.76) = 0pt

5-8C-9-10: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = +½pt

5-9-10-J: 7pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 6.82) = +¼pt

5-8-8-10: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.96) = -1pt

Potential:

8-8-9-10: Improves with 555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999, 101010, JJJ = 22 cuts = 22/46 =47.8% up to 14/15/16pts with 7777, 88, 999, 101010 = 12 cuts.

5-8C-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 555, 7777, 88, 999, 101010, JJJ = 18 cuts.

5-9-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 88, 999 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.25 up to 10/12/13/14pts 555, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 16 cuts. Plus 10 club cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

5-8-8-10: Improves with 2222, 555, 7777, 88, 999 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.25 up to 8/10pts with 2222, 555, 7777, 88, 999, 101010 = 19 cuts.

Position:

If opponent were First Pone then they've reached the positional hole. Although we are still 5pts past our positional hole I'll play Offense to try to increase our advantage.

Pegging:

5-8C-9-10, 5-9-10-J and 5-8-8-10 will peg similarly and I think will peg better than 8-8-9-10 but I think 5-8C-9-10 will just have the edge.

Summary:

5-8C-9-10 is best for starting value by ¼pt over 5-9-10-J but 5-9-10-J has an extra ¼pt potential for a club cut. It also has the most cuts for improvement and 18 cuts for 8-12pts. 5-9-10-J has 16 cuts for 10-14pts compared to 12 cuts for 12-16pts with 8-8-9-10 and 19 cuts for 8/10pts with 5-8-8-10. I also think 5-8C-9-10 will peg best so I'll throw the 8S-J.
HalscribCLX
5369 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 2:49 PM
At 13-18* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Peg__Crib____Total___W8 %____W9 %
5-9-10-J___9.67+1.30+(-6.07)=4.90____37.5____36.9
5-8C-9-10__7.59+1.33+(-4.25)=4.67____32.2____36.8
8-8-9-10__10.30+1.28+(-7.86)=3.72____38.3____34.0
5-8-8-10___6.26+1.35+(-4.67)=2.95____28.0____33.2

Offense______L8 %____L9 %
5-9-10-J______48.5____43.4
5-8C-9-10_____42.9____42.7
8-8-9-10______53.0____47.5
5-8-8-10______43.5____46.8

5-9-10-J is best for expected averages by 0.23pt. over 5-8C-9-10 and is slightly best for Win %s. Although it is not lowest for Loss %s I'll still select the 8-8 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll lead the 10 and play Defense:

Lead_____________Dealer's Pegging Points
10_______________________(-2.30)
J________________________(-2.34)
9________________________(-2.62)
5________________________(-3.03)
RGM
935 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 9:07 PM