Monday 3:29 AM

I don't believe tossing 2-3 will help us as much as helping the dealer who is already 11 points ahead on the board. This flush increasing with every cut.
Looking forward to others comments on today's hand. Nice one james500.

   

Monday 3:56 AM

Defense and acourse some offense. Just something about that 8-2 discard I am not big on. Perhaps that a combinations of fifteens could hit on that one. Keeping 9-10 might be a great hit but I went for cuts that would add to my hand and hopefully not theirs. I would do this live especially with them at 94. Playing with a better chance to win hopefully.Holding tight on the pegging, no pegs- three lead. dec

   

Monday 4:12 AM

Willing to risk the 23 for more points.

   

Monday 4:56 AM

Tough spot here-we need points to get into better position but have to very wary of discarding with dealer only 27 out-my basic philosophy here is that it’s easier to be aggressive with my deal next hand and try to steal a few points there than it is to be aggressive here and have to defend the opponent being closer to the finish line with first count next hand-thus I’m not going to risk the 2-3 discard to keep the pretty 5-8-9-10 flush-with the 3-5–9-10-you are guaranteed at least 8 points with a safe lead of a 3 that gets you 2 more if matched-not very worried about the 2-8 discard-if the dealer throws cards that fill it in to give him a good crib that’s just bad luck-giving 2-3 with him 27 out is just bad play,in my opinion

   

Monday 4:58 AM

Reasonably safe discard.
Every cut will help me, 4c helps more than most.
3 lead covered by the 9.

   

Monday 5:21 AM

Needing to deal from 4th street CPZ (95-99)it's off., off., off. for me, needing 12 holes. Not crazy about 2-8 (2-9 is lower scoring to opponent rib), my need for points caused me to go with the larger potential scoring hand. Discarding the 2-8 is softened a bit with the presence of the 5 in hand and a touching card. The starter card gives me 10; so will grab pegs if offered in hopes of reaching 95 for the deal. More later.

   

Monday 5:50 AM

Wasn’t giving up 2-3 even if that means I deal from a few holes short on 4th street.

   

Monday 6:11 AM

If the dealer wants 2 extra points, they will have to earned. This is not the position nor the time to give points away. If this hand was at an end game position with first count, my discard would be the 2-3. Right now the dealer is in too advantageous position. Let's hope for better cards on my deal.

   

Monday 6:25 AM

I prefer to throw 2 - 8. Got to limit dealer's point potential.

   

Monday 6:45 AM

Agree with above folks who decided not to toss the oh so dangerous 2-3 to opponent’s crib. Liked the touching 9-10 in hand so tossed 2-8. All cuts help this hand. Lead the the 3 and if paired take the 15 for 2. We have 10 in hand so a few pegs will get us in pretty good position for next round as dealer.

   

Monday 6:53 AM

As above

   

Monday 7:00 AM

I WANT to keep opponent short of 111 for next hand but he's already a little short to pull that off.

I NEED to get to/past 96 to stand a half decent chance of winning myself.

   

Monday 7:04 AM

I will NOT, I repeat NOT give up 23 to the pone leading on 4th street...there are other options here that keep surrendering 23 or a 5 at this juncture....to me, if you do that you might as well be prepared to write 0 on your card vice 2.........

   

Monday 9:00 AM

64% throw the 2-3. But for all the reasons stated above 2-8 is the right throw. If we lose, we lose, but dealer will have to earn it.

   

Monday 12:19 PM

Need to get close to 95, otherwise we will probably lose anyhow. But not throwing 23 with opponent in approximate position.

   

Monday 2:19 PM

As above... Defense needed now, so it's an option next time.

   

Monday 5:57 PM

I kept the 8 instead of the 9 for the magic 11.

   

Monday 7:34 PM

I'm in the minority here - I discarded 5-2, keeping 3-8-9-10(flush). Here's my reasoning. Maybe someone can comment on it:
I have 83 points, and as pone I want to reach 85(if I can) without giving dealer too much latitude to advance.
I need 12 points to hit 95.
Dealer has 94, so I want to peg defensively, so that he doesn't gain too much in the pegging department. This means that most of my needed 12 points should come from the hand, and not the pegging.
And that means I should keep the flush, bit not give dealer 2-3 in the crib, which can easily give dealer 8 points.
I selected discarding 2-5, worth on average about 5 pts in his crib, and keeping 3-8-9-10, worth as a flush 7 points. (The cut gave me 3 more points, making 10 in all, meaning I only need to try for 2 points pegging.)
I see this as a reasonable balance between trying to reach 95, and restricting the dealer from making too much.
Any comments/corrective advice from the experts here?
Thanks in advance - John

   

Monday 7:36 PM

Correction: When I said above "as pone I want to reach 85(if I can)" I meant "as pone I want to reach 95(if I can)" Sorry for the typo.

   

Tuesday 2:06 AM

At 83-94* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
3-5-9-10__8.98+(-2.65)+(-4.48)=1.85____0.0____2.2
3-5-8-10__8.72+(-2.85)+(-4.39)=1.48____0.0____1.9
5-8-9-10_11.89+(-3.11)+(-7.33)=1.45____0.0____3.8

Defense______L1 %___L2 %
3-5-9-10_____1.8____35.3
3-5-8-10_____1.7____36.0
5-8-9-10_____4.8____52.6

3-5-9-10 is best for expected averages by 0.37pt and although its not best for Win %s it is lowest for Loss %s. So I'll 2-8 to discard.

After the 4C cut I'll lead the 3 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

___________________Net______Loss %
10_______________(-0.64)_____0.9
9________________(-0.79)_____1.0
3________________(-0.84)_____0.0
5________________(-1.73)_____0.8

The 10 lead is lowest for expected averages but the 3 lead is lowest for Loss %s.

Tuesday 5:18 AM

Seems Halscrib considers the 5 should be retained in all 3 of its top 3 options. Means giving up on the run(bad thing), playing more defensively in the crib(good thing) and making it harder(I think) to reach 95 this deal(bad thing).
I would like to see its W/L %s on holding 3-8-9-10. (Discarding 2-5)
Probably a moral here for me about discarding 5's to opp. crib - even if it may be justified in order to reach your target.

Tuesday 5:48 AM

"may be justified" in the above should read "may seem justified"