Friday 4:27 AM

I trust Dan's math, but don't see this one as that close. Guessing Eolus will point us to the big hand rule and discards where it's ok to sacrifice 2 pts making this simply a good teaching hand.

Cribbage Pro Daily Scrimmage
Score: 121 to 117

Differential Discards
1. T-Q 0-0*
4. 9-T 45*-39
7. 2-J 100-76*
8. A-T 114*-94

7 and 8 were more about justifying my discard Hand 7 than they were about winning the game or getting the skunk at that point. Unfortunately, even if I hit the cut Hand 7 with the same peg I end up in the dead hole and the opp still escapes the skunk, so I guess I unjustified the discard.

Friday 4:46 AM

I would slow play this discard. Could be either an on or off play depending on lead. The math sells itself. dec

Friday 5:16 AM

My maths says to go with 4+2.

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
26th Dec 2025
🏆Score: 121 to 104
🌋SP: 1735
📅Streak: 193
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/713/3333658/1

1. Ad-7
2. 5-5
3. 4-K
4. 5-10
5. 4-10h
6. 2-3
7. 8-J
8. A-10
9. A-Q

* I knew 10-5 from hand 4 was incorrect, but I fancied trying it.
(2-4-5-6-9-10)
* A-Q from hand 9 was only because my position. Maybe 3-8 somewhere else.

Friday 5:18 AM

I was looking for a 6 but the 3 works for me. Gotta keep the 445 together just in case.

Happy Boxing Day.

Friday 6:34 AM

Like starting with 6 points this way with these touching face cards. If the face cards were 10-K, 10-Q, J-K, or Q-K, I would have thrown the 5 with the higher producing face in the crib (ex, 5-K if holding 10-K, 5-J if holding J-K).

Friday 6:42 AM

Thanks Dan for your befuddling dealer discard puzzle involving multiple Ras’s axioms and a decision if this is the 95% or 5% of the time they do or do not apply …I see the value of keeping the 4-4-5 together ..respect that choice…5/J is on Ras’s approved list of dealer discards when sacrificing two points is involved. ..4/4 is in group #2 of Ras’s highest average dealer discards ..

https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen7.asp

https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/uploads/5/6/7/4/56741021/chart_11.pdf

Friday 6:58 AM

Not keen on pairs to my crib. Like this hand for pegging and potential for runs.

Friday 7:07 AM

Happy with keeping 445 together (with a close 7) and putting touches in crib

Friday 7:11 AM

My main interest was seeing if it was worthwhile to give up 2 combined points to hold the open-ended double run. In most positions on the board I think I would not, and hold either 57JQ or 447Q. But as it is the first hand of the game, I might make that sacrifice with the JQ toss, with the propensity of the pone to often throw at least one face-card, especially the K.

Friday 7:29 AM

I'll keep the guaranteed 6, with 2 to the crib, and hope for a little help. Didn't get it.

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
26th Dec 2025
🏆Score: 121 to 101
🌋SP: 1790
📅Streak: 25
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/713/8363472/1

Friday 7:47 AM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
4-4-5-7____7.43+(-1.98)+4.58=10.03____37.2____49.3
5-7-J-Q____6.76+(-2.24)+5.46= 9.98____37.0____49.7
4-4-7-Q____5.39+(-2.20)+6.73= 9.92____35.2____49.2
4-4-7-J____5.63+(-2.22)+6.39= 9.80____35.8____49.8

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
4-4-5-7________26.9____25.0
5-7-J-Q________26.7____24.7
4-4-7-Q________25.2____24.7
4-4-7-J________25.1____24.3

4-4-5-7 is best for expected averages by 0.05pt. over 5-7-J-Q. However, 5-7-J-Q is very slightly best for Win %s and very slightly lower for Loss %s. So, I'll select the 4-4 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Friday 7:58 AM

I figure the opp will toss away junky face cards on the first hand, and I'd rather peg with the littler cards.

Friday 8:57 AM

Chose to send JQ to the crib, possible K,Q, 10 pone discard. Keeping 4457 opens doors for help from all cards other than A.

Friday 9:12 AM

J-Q holds an opportunity for a run of face cards on the play. Even though the double run (3 on the cut) was missed there’s a chance for it to happen in the crib with 3-4-4. 4-4-5-7 was a close second.

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
26th Dec 2025
🏆Score: 121 to 94
🌋SP: 1985
📅Streak: 375
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/713/7389935/1

Friday 10:09 AM

I agree with the Jazzman above. I don't like taking points away from my hand to "roll the dice" for a possibly better outcome but if I was going to try it, then this is the time and place to do it.

Friday 11:04 AM

I may do some different things on different days with this hand. I liked the potential growth of (J Q) in the crib and the cuts for significant improvement in the hand today. 2/2 over the last 2 days for our cut.