Today's results so far

*** This hand was suggested by dph
92-78*  ?
81%
81%
16%
16%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 275
dphEnded up in an inescapable pegging war that let my opponent back into this game. In retrospect I regret not throwing A-9 to retain the escape card. I had worked so hard to force Game 3 (CribbagePro Competitive) and then let the match get away. Cut was a King.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6179 votes)

Thursday 3:38 AM
I will take my chances with the double-run
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6865 votes)

Thursday 3:46 AM
I will keep eight . I would have played on also. Playing to win confident here. dec
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2248 votes)

Thursday 3:50 AM
Double run.
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4353 votes)

Thursday 4:13 AM
I'd choose 9 with Q/K, but not 10/J.

Wordle 1,482 5/6

⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
🟨🟩⬛⬛🟩
⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4524 votes)

Thursday 4:22 AM
We are Pone with a significant Fourteen-Point lead as we arrive on Fourth Street. Our lead inspires confidence, and all we need to remain "on pace" is to reach beyond the Fourth Street Par Hole 96 by completion of this deal. Either the Double Run of (A 2 3 3) or (2 3 3 J) can meet this goal, but the Double Run "meets and exceeds" it, so we are left to contrast and compare Toss (9 J) with a Crib Value of 4.96 Points with Toss (A 9) and its Crib Value of 4.55 Points (Schell). Other discard tables can only find a maximum difference of about 0.75 Points between these two ideas. 🤔

I don't think an added 0.41 Points, or even 0.75 Points, has much significance, not with our Opponent at Hole 78, but that won't stop a few sleuths from finding that one exists should we lose! The fact is, there is almost always a specific Dealer Discard or set of circumstances that can defeat us, or a pegging battle that "goes all wrong" that can harm us, but we shouldn't let an occasional random result affect the way we approach our decision-making process. According to Rex Cribbage, Toss (9 J) boosts our odds of losing over Toss (A 9) from just below 1% to just above 1%! It's barely noticeable! 🎠

We often debate Discard Decisions that differ in NET Total by less than half-a-point, but today, Toss (9 J) is nearly Two Points superior in aggregate to any other discard, so it's not even close. (A 2 3 3) starts out with Eight Points, can reach Sixteen Points, and will attain a Dozen Points after Twenty-Six Cut Cards (AAA, 222, 33, 999, TTTT, JJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which is 26/46 equals 0.565 and thus will occur nearly 57% of the time! No other hand comes close. 🎨

Choosing Toss (A 9) for "defense" trades away an added greater than 30% chance of winning, for a fraction of 1% decrease in odds of losing, an abysmal trade-off! I would even contend that Toss (A 9) jeopardizes the outcome of this game far more than Toss (9 J), because the slightly lower chance of getting into pegging difficulty, along with a fractionally lower risk in the Crib, cannot offset the huge loss in Hand Value if we don't retain the Double Run! Cribbage can be a rough game: Don't beat yourself up over a rare loss that could only have been prevented by making a discard that would have actually INCREASED your chances of losing. 🐶

Let's Toss (9 J) today, and risk that extra less-than-half-point difference in Crib Value. After the Ace Cut, we now have Sixteen Points; let's lead a Trey from our PAIR. Remember: The best discard is NOT the particular discard that would have maybe won that particular game; the best discard is the one that you would choose to do all over again, given the same position on the board and the same cards. And in this case, I believe it's Toss (9 J). 🏰

Wordle 1,482 4/6

⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
JQT says: Errata: Third Paragraph, Second Sentence, insert "OR MORE" as follows: (A 2 3 3) starts out with Eight Points, can reach Sixteen Points, and will attain a Dozen Points OR MORE after Twenty-Six Cut Cards . . .
Eolus619 says: wordle ..I believe ONLY JQT could go blank on his first two guesses and then pick a word that has four letters in the correct places …tip of the cap to you 👏👏
JQT says: Anything to avoid the color YELLOW! 🍋
Andy (muesli64) says: It's because in the paucity of vowels found he went HUMPY on third go. Situation happens a lot and a favourite third go therefore.
CaribeGator

Joined: November 2024 (193 votes)

Thursday 4:25 AM
Take the sure 8 minimum here and lead with the 3. After the A cut and a 16 before pegging, setting up nicely.
tevdodd

Joined: May 2021 (286 votes)

Thursday 4:43 AM
Putting this one in the "Don't overthink it" bin today.

Cribbage Pro Daily Scrimmage *Spoiler*
-Rough Day- Score: 119 to 121

Discards:
1. A-Q 0-0*
2. 4-5
3. K-K 26-32*
4. 5-J 32*-62
5. T-Q
6. 5-8
7. 6-7 90-111*
8. Q-K 114*-120

Wordle 1,482 6/6*

🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜
⬜🟩⬜🟩⬜
⬜🟩🟩🟩🟩
⬜🟩🟩🟩🟩
⬜🟩🟩🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
tevdodd says: Today, after the yahtzee cut we lead the 3 and run as far as the opponent wants to. Maybe they feel desperate and pair the 3, otherwise a peg-a-thon from 13 out sounds pretty appealing to me :) Guessing Cribbage Pro didn't give you the yahtzee cut, however.
fentesk says: How did the pegging in the last hand on Scrimmage go for you today? I was sitting 117*-115 and couldn't get the four I needed. Non-dealer led a 3.
tevdodd says: 3-T-5-7-3-2-A(31 for 5)
fentesk says: Thanks, I was torn between the 2 and the T and played the 2 with a thought they may play into a run early. Clearly I should have held out to force a run late. Much appreciated!
domandcarol

Joined: August 2023 (161 votes)

Thursday 4:50 AM
I’ll stay with this double run
dph

Joined: February 2021 (1266 votes)

Thursday 5:12 AM
In the actual game the escape card would have come in handy. I'm still on the fence whether keeping an escape is worth the 'two point hit' at this position.
HfxKen says: That cribbage pro competitive app IMHO, has some serious issues. I only play the regular mutigame mode, too frustrating to play the competitive. Your opponent is usually the app itself. Just my opinion, not sour grapes. I think your double run hold was the right choice.
dph says: I only play Competitive (unless a friend contacts me and wants a private game). My toughest "opponent" in Competitive is whether or not I'm willing to give the game my full attention or if I'm watching NHL/MLB simultaneously.
MarktheShark says: Do not second-guess your discard. You took your best shot and were simply unlucky to lose this game. It happens to all of us.
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (447 votes)

Thursday 5:30 AM
i’m keeping the double run. Lead with a 3.
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1768 votes)

Thursday 5:45 AM
I am playing offense here with my keep/discard. Read the submitter’s comments..Hard to process being ahead by 14 and then also starting with eight to then be dealing next from 100 and losing.
Eolus619 says: To make this scenario even worse…9/J is on Ras’s list of lowest average balk discards by n/der. …double yikes
dph says: Ultimately I won but the next hand was far too interesting for my tastes.
Eolus619 says: good news 👍
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (690 votes)

Thursday 8:19 AM
This should be 100% imo
Shotrock3

Joined: May 2017 (33 votes)

Thursday 9:50 AM
Double run. The Double run is also the keep to consider for skunk possibilities.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5711 votes)

Thursday 10:31 AM
At 92-78* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs____Crib____Total___W1 %___W2 %
A-2-3-3_____11.74+(-2.61)+(-5.26)=3.87____0.0____58.5
2-3-3-J______9.78+(-2.59)+(-4.54)=2.57____0.0____42.1
A-2-3-JD_____7.91+(-2.59)+(-4.29)=1.03____0.0____30.6
2-3-3-9______7.74+(-2.37)+(-4.67)=0.70____0.1____31.2

Defense______L1 %____L2 %
A-2-3-3________0.0____1.2
2-3-3-J________0.0____0.8
A-2-3-JD_______0.0____0.9
2-3-3-9________0.0____0.7

A-2-3-3 is best for expected averages by 1.30pts. and is very much best for Win % although very slightly the worst for Loss %s. So, I'll select the 9-J to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead a 2 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead____________Net Pegging Points____Win %
3____________________(-0.37)___________0.0
2____________________(-0.68)___________0.1
A____________________(-1.17)___________0.1

A 3 lead s best for Net Pegging Points but the 2 lead is very slightly better for Win %s.
Eolus619 says: Thx …it looks to me it is likely this is a three hand game..including this one
Mrkatz1943

Joined: June 2025 (32 votes)

Thursday 12:22 PM
Why do they show the cut on this webpage? Does it help to see how it turned out?
feralba24 says: Mrkatz. For me its nice to know what players would lead as pone or reply as dealer, my 2 cents.
Eolus619 says: Hello ..the cut gets shown for every submitted puzzle as if the hand was part of a live game being played ..that’s the setup for DCH..and it does help voters evaluate their discard decision as to points earned or given up
Eolus619 says: hi feralba24…commenters frequently post what their lead is when playing a n/der …many do…dec…JQT….rob…..marktheshark..etc
feralba24 says: Mrkatz. Theres a good list to learn by, many more etc. Hope you enjoy DCH
feralba24 says: Eolus619. I often run it thru my head after the cut what i would play after the pones play. Any card play.
Eolus619 says: hello feralba24..that is a worth exercise