Thursday 3:48 AM

Dealer came up short on last hand but so did we. Go for the dozen cut and toss a five in the crib. Hopefully play on. dec

   

Thursday 4:02 AM

Agree with dec today. A five in the crib and 5 point hand to start. Starter helps our crib.

   

Thursday 5:10 AM

Seems like a pretty straightforward hand to me-keep the 5 points and throw 3-5

   

Thursday 5:11 AM

I've chosen 3-5, but of more interest is who gets chosen tonight. Does anyone on here have any preference for who their team drafts?

   

Thursday 5:23 AM

Speculation. I'll toss myself 3-5 and see in the pone throws me something useful.

   

Thursday 6:31 AM

5 in hand and sure 2 in crib. This should be 100%, don't see an argument for any other throw.

   

Thursday 8:53 AM

Seems like an obvious throw. Not so obvious before the series but obvious afterwards. Carolina Hurricanes in 7 (with double OT win in game 7!!) over the Washington Bullies. Go Canes!

   

Thursday 10:29 AM

Ought to be 100% though there are many who play this wonderful game who have no idea just how strong the 3-5 discard is. Many of those same players love the 7-7 to own crib. In actuality the 3-5 average is 5.971 (455) 12/91 and 7-7 average is 5.873 (1,372) 13/91. Here's what gives that 3-5 the edge. The 3-5 scores two points 8.571% and that hypothetical 7-7 scores two points 22.011%. The hypothetical pair can never score a crib flush. Here you can add about .04 to the suited 3-5 discard as there is potential for crib flush. Like all discards, the 3-5 is worth more when tossed on the other side of the board. Will take pegs as offered as need off., off., off. Not much pegging potential here unless n/d holding middle cards. Looks like will be playing an offense strategy for several hands. That's often how it goes for the person not winning the cut for the opening crib. Think with 7 points we can assume that this is the second deal of this game.

   

Thursday 1:48 PM

I don't think there's much competition to 6-8-9-10 (3-5). Closest will be 5-8-9-10 (3-6) and 3-8-9-10 (5-6):

6-8-9-10: 5pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 6.78) = 11¾pts

5-8-9-10: 5pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.87) = 10pts

3-8-9-10: 3pts + 7½pts (Schell: 7.47) = 10½pts

Potential:

6-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 555, 666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 9/10/12pts with 666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 16 cuts.

5-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 555, 666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 555, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 20 cuts.

3-8-9-10: Improves with 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 6/7/8pts with 333, 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 16 cuts.

Position:

It looks as if we were First Pone and only scored 7pts so I'll still play Offense.

Pegging:

I think these will all peg similarly.

Summary:

6-8-9-10 is at least 1¼pts better and although it doesn't have the most cuts for improvement it has 16 cuts for 9-12pts. So I'll throw the 3-5.

   

Thursday 1:53 PM

At 7*-12 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W8 %____W9 %
6-8-9-10__7.11+2.96+6.13=16.20____17.5____22.9
5-8-9-10__7.72+3.41+3.60=14.73____14.4____19.5
3-8-9-10__5.20+2.85+6.61=14.66____14.7____20.0

Offense_______L8 %____L9 %
6-8-9-10______29.8____49.0
5-8-9-10______30.6____51.6
3-8-9-10______30.2____51.9

6-8-9-10 is best by 1.47pts and it is also best for Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position.

After the K cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

   

Thursday 2:58 PM

Slam Dunk decision. No sweating over this toss.