Saturday 3:06 AM

Believed that tossing the pair of six's was safer than tossing 5-6 to opponent with today's hand. We have sixteen points with the cut of a 6 and opponent has six points in his crib. Quite a coincidence that a six turns up as the starter.

   

Saturday 3:17 AM

Completely agree with Rosemarie here-the 5-6 is potentially much more dangerous-and keeping the double 5 gives us 12 instead of 10 with any picture cut

   

Saturday 3:27 AM

16 faces and only five of the 6/9 available . We are non dealer here so start with the 8-2 and hope to increase from twelve to seventeen. Numbers lead the six. dec

   

Saturday 3:56 AM

All of the above.

   

Saturday 3:58 AM

Concerned about the value of their crib, but what will be will be. 6 lead.

   

Saturday 4:56 AM

With my Monte Carlo program, that plays the whole hand - total points from play and show, throwing any 5-6 combo gets on average 15.2 points. Second best is any pair of 6s for an average of 14.9. Almost too close to call.

   

Saturday 5:04 AM

Aside from Toss (6 7), Toss (6 6) may be the safest discard we have today.

Throwing a 5 Card might tidy things up on 'our side' of the board, but could wreak havoc and make our situation much worse 'over the board.'

Now, do we dare lead a 5 Card to start a game and from such a hand? I often do!

Leading a 5 Card can *only* cost us at most an immediate Two Points, and it's often worth the price of admission paid to learn the most about the composition of the Dealer's Hand.

   

Saturday 5:44 AM

Agree with those above with this hold. Double run holding the two 5s makes the most sense to me. There is no balking cards we can toss to opponent’s crib, but I think 6-6 is safer than 5-6, and I would guess in the same ball park as 6-7. I would lead the 7 and look to dump a 5 on next play.

   

Saturday 5:49 AM

(6h 6d) for me. Discard both red 6s so that with what remains a fake flush is possible.

(6d 6c) could achieve that same effect.

JQT's thought on leading 5c is intriguing.

   

Saturday 5:55 AM

Toss 6-6?

   

Saturday 6:07 AM

Looks unanimous. I’ll lead the seven and peg aggressively from there.

   

Saturday 6:39 AM

Got to toss 6-6. I'll get rid of those with a blush. It's off., off., off since opening n/d. Been a very busy week as have been hosting the I-5 North Toutle Rest Area all week. Baked 1,200 cookies to go with coffee, tea, or hot chocolate. All volunteer project with donated supplies. no charge though we can accept donations. If traveling the I-5 corridor this past week, you just might have sampled some of those home-made cookies. Logan Hill Grange does this 3 weeks in the year during months of October, February, and March. More later!

   

Saturday 8:19 AM

Academic which sixes to dump. That skews the percentages above a bit. Wish I was there to donate my oatmeal raisin cookies or chocolate chips. (I'd probably eat the CC cookies first.)

   

Saturday 8:31 AM

Well I guess the dealer's gonna get at least 6 in their crib after the cut. Figured first hand I want to keep my 5's together and start with the most points I can.

   

Saturday 9:08 AM

I’ve know where every 6 is, so I’d lead the 6 I still have. If dealer plays a 9, I’d play a 5 to make it 20.

   

Saturday 2:32 PM

I don't see any real alternative to throwing 6-6 and keeping 8pts. The next best, which I wouldn't be keen on, would be 5-6 (unsuited). I'll compare the two:

5-5-6-7: 8pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 7.08) = +1¼pts

5-6-6-7: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.47) = +½pt

Potential:

5-5-6-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 6, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/16/17pts with 3333, 4444, 55, 6, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 34 cuts.

5C-6-6-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 6, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/15/16pts with 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 6, 777, 8888, 9999 = 26 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Both should peg well playing Offense.

Summary:

5-5-6-7 has a starting value ¾pt more and although it has the same number of cuts for improvement it has more cuts for a good to very good hand (34 vs. 26). So I'll throw 6-6.

   

Saturday 2:47 PM

At 0*-0 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
5-5-6-7___12.04+1.15+(-6.04)=7.15____36.3____28.7
5C-6-6-7__11.63+1.65+(-6.83)=6.45____36.4____27.5

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
5-5-6-7______43.8____48.1
5C-6-6-7_____45.4____49.4

5-5-6-7 is better for expected averages by 0.70pt and is better for Win %s and Loss %s so I'll select 6-6 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead the 7 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Pts.
7_____________________1.23
5_____________________1.17
6_____________________0.98