Friday 3:18 AM

While Toss (7 8) in isolation is a much stronger discard, I believe that the "Touching Twosome" of Toss (T J) provides us a much better balance overall here.

We have the powerful pegging prospects of the (4 7) "Magic Eleven," and also we look to perhaps profit precipitously in our Crib as well after maybe the likes of Toss (9 Q) from Pone.

   

Friday 3:23 AM

10-J is immediately helped by a 5,9,10,J or Q. The problem is, Pone won't want to donate a 5 or J, which limits the liklihood of any "magic" occurring in the crib.

The possible "bonus" point for the Jack is mine regardless of whether I hold/discard it, and so the discard charts may give a misleading impression if simply taken at face value, (no pun intended).

Hopefully the better pegging manoeuvrability that comes from holding a wider range of values will make up for any crib "impotency".

   

Friday 3:38 AM

Tempted to throw the 10-j here but want fulll value if an ace or middle card gets cut-the 4-7-8-k is a better pegging hand than the one I kept but not so much as to give up the shot at potential 12 cribs

   

Friday 3:39 AM

As JQT says, T-J to our crib and holding 2 points to start is a better balance with today's hand.

   

Friday 3:46 AM

Will have to let go of the better peggers for a chance in the crib.

   

Friday 4:50 AM

A five cut might still suit hand and crib. Position play. dec

   

Friday 5:06 AM

I'll toss the 78 and hope the opponent helps out the crib.

   

Friday 5:55 AM

9 Cut would be nice

   

Friday 6:11 AM

478K has a Magic 11, but other than that the cards do not fit together very well. 78 more potential than 10J, although in many cases 10J is a solid throw.

   

Friday 6:11 AM

78 to my crib where hopefully they’ll do me more good than in my hand.

   

Friday 7:04 AM

With the flow.

   

Friday 7:30 AM

Looks like I differ from the crowd here. I want the most pegging options in this spot - I want to avoid a 2-2 (or 0-2), and I think I just have more options to score this way.

   

Friday 7:49 AM

Surprised that this was not almost 100%

   

Friday 7:53 AM

My immediate reaction was to toss the 7-8 but then I paused when I saw who submitted this hand. After pondering the T-J for a bit, I feel that tossing the 7-8 is the better way to go. As others said, opponent tossing me a 5 is a low probability (although tossing me a 9 is a reasonable probability). Will be interested to see HAL's numbers.

   

Friday 7:54 AM

With a bad hand like this, will try to build a big crib. 7-8 is a top ten toss to own crib- even if pone tosses defensively like 9-X, 8-X, 7-X, we could end up with 10/12 in there. Touching 10-J is a decent toss, but I don’t think the possible added pegging potential of that hold makes up the difference.

   

Friday 12:27 PM

The choice is between a very good discard, and a pretty good discard. The trick is determining which, is which. Tossing the 4-K into your own crib is bordering on the ridiculous.

If possible, holding the T-J as your last two plays may work out to your advantage.

   

Friday 4:55 PM

A poor hand on our deal. I'll put close, preferably -touching cards into the crib. So that's either 7-8 or 10-J:

4-10-J-K: 0pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 6½pts

4-7-8-K: 2pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.61) = 6¾pts

Potential:

4-10-J-K: Improves with AAAA, 444, 5555, 9999 + 13xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 3/4/6/9pts with AAAA, 5555, 9999, QQQQ = 16 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

4-7-8-K: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, KKK = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 5/6pts with 444, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 17 cuts.

Position:

It looks as if it's 3rd deal and we scored 1pt below average as First Dealer and opponent as First Pone has scored well below average so our positional advantage has improved. I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 4-10-J-K will peg better.

Summary:

4-7-8-K has a better starting value but only by ¼pt and 4-10-J-K has the benefit of the J for nob potential so that evens it up. 4-7-8-K has a few more cuts for improvement but 4-10-J-K has 16 cuts for 3-9pts and should peg better defensively so I'll throw the 7-8.

   

Friday 4:58 PM

At 25*-20 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense____Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W8 %____W9 %
4-10-J-K____2.41+(-2.59)+6.76=6.58____54.1____39.4
4-7-8-K_____3.96+(-2.15)+4.52=6.33____52.8____37.1

Defense_______L8 %____L9 %
4-10-J-K_______52.3____40.9
4-7-8-K________54.1____42.9

4-10-J-K is better for expected averages by 0.25pt and is appreciably better for Win 5s and lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.