Today's results so far

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
68*-68  ?
Total votes: 184
3494 votes

Joined: October 2008

Saturday 3:01 AM
As we are Dealer and tied at Hole 68, this is now akin to a "short" game, perhaps after one deal has passed.

We'd rather be at the Second Street Par Hole 70, so it would be nice to optimize our Hand and Crib to get back on track.

We could Toss (2 3) or Toss (7 8), so it's between good and great! But which one is the "great" discard? Toss (2 3) is more likely to receive help from our Opponent, and that's where two-thirds of the help comes from in Cribbage. But Toss (7 8) is also a fantastic discard!

And that's because Pone is as likely to throw a Middle Card such as a 6, 7, 8, or 9 Card, as Pone is likely to throw a Small Card such as Ace, Deuce, Trey, or 4 Card.

Nothing usually beats Toss (2 3) in terms of Future Growth in our Crib, and I believe it's the right discard today. We can probably peg more defensively if we Keep (2 7 8 8).

After the Queen Cut, our Hand still has just Six Points, and yet we have very good prospects for our Crib. Meanwhile, we can probably best defend during the pegging without several of those pesky Small Cards.

With great help from fellow "Hand of the Day" poster, fentesk, I was also able to confirm the conjecture that Evil Wordle can indeed be solved with just Five Guesses, and did so in virtually poetic fashion: ready, pluck, fight, moons, BOMBS!

I also conjured a way so that Guess Six in Evil Wordle would become "BOOBS" after: ready, pluck, fight, swoon, zooms, BOOBS. My supposition is that this feat can also be performed in a few as Five Guesses, a proof I leave for the reader.
fentesk says: It took me longer than it should have to figure out what Evil Wordle was after you first mentioned it as my first play had the answer of BOOBY, so I assumed the "evil" was meant more as "adult".
JQT says: The trick is to exhaust not just all but one vowel and the "S" but also those two-letter consonant pairs such as BR, FL, etc., and isolate just one vowel. Oh, if you were born in the late 50s and came of age in the 70s, getting your red-segment Texas Instruments calculator to spell "BOOBS" (upside down) using the number "58008" was an electronic nerd's rite-of-passage. Evil Wordle, the site, not just an adjective!
2079 votes

Joined: March 2017

Saturday 3:02 AM
Like to keep 788 together. LOVE 23 to my crib.
Goatman says: Just now saw “it”…Should have kept 2D to fake a flush.
Goatman says: Just now saw “it”…Should have kept 2D to fake a flush.
jmudge says: Ohhh clever, I hadn't considered that tactic. This is why I love hanging out with this group: I continue to learn!
jmudge says: Ohhh clever, I hadn't considered that tactic. This is why I love hanging out with this group: I continue to learn!
Nelson says: I'm not drinking an Irish coffee this morning but I think I'm seeing double.
Nelson says: I'm not drinking an Irish coffee this morning but I think I'm seeing double.
Inushtuk1 says: You *did* keep the 2d Goatman.
Inushtuk1 says: You *did* keep the 2d Goatman.
3266 votes

Joined: June 2013

Saturday 3:07 AM
Two good discards available in 2-3 or 7-8d.

Two open-ended double run possibilities that could be kept in -2-2-3- or -7-8-8-.

Six points plus 2-3 in the crib seems good to me.
5671 votes

Joined: April 2008

Saturday 3:17 AM
I saw the three diamonds might be a few plays to utilize a fake flush play. Two-three in the crib always warranted. dec
5051 votes

Joined: March 2008

Saturday 3:56 AM
I wanted that 223 together. Looks like I'm an outlier today.

433 votes

Joined: July 2020

Saturday 4:21 AM
After reading comments from Goatman and dec, I realize that I threw the wrong 2!
996 votes

Joined: February 2009

Saturday 5:07 AM
Potential for 12 or 14 with this hold while stashing the powerful 2-3 to our own crib? Sign me up!!!!
Fender Bass
370 votes

Joined: July 2021

Saturday 5:08 AM
2109 votes

Joined: March 2009

Saturday 5:10 AM
23 a higher average than 78, and more likely to be helped by the opponent; hope for the somewhat popular hi-low toss of AX.
458 votes

Joined: April 2021

Saturday 5:27 AM
I should be back on track after this discard...with this cut, I'm not so sure. Now I may need to risk taking a couple of points on the pegging I otherwise wouldn't have had to take if I'd gotten the cut I wanted........
967 votes

Joined: August 2019

Saturday 6:25 AM
Whether I toss 7-8 or 2-3, every cut helps hand or crib. That's unusual. Since 2-3 averages more, off it goes!
685 votes

Joined: June 2020

Saturday 7:16 AM
This is a tight game and somewhere on my journey to par holes 70 & 96 I need @ least three additional points to be @ 111-104*. Following Rob’s soon to be even more famous cribbage theorem ..” don’t over think this” ..powerful 2-3 to the crib ..and to repeat scott …..cut help… hand or crib …from 13/13 ranks
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Bruce. I'm seeing us at 110 in three deals time, and our opponent at 104. So it would be 110-104*. So we need to find at least one additional point. Perhaps I am missing something. Cheers.
Eolus619 says: yes your cycle calculation is correct…i was must giving myself some wiggle room…111+ is the goal ..all the best
16 votes

Joined: June 2022

Saturday 8:04 AM
Tied at 68 with a hand that is crib friendly. 7-8 or 2-3 to the crib are both fantastic, and then there's the 2-2-3-8 hold that would have benefited from the cut card, but too late now. 2S-3H to the crib. I will attempt to fake a flush and peg with caution while still trying to pick up an extra point or two. Nice puzzle.
36 votes

Joined: May 2022

Saturday 8:19 AM
Since it was my crib, I went with toss 2-3
896 votes

Joined: July 2016

Saturday 9:49 AM
Must be a catch somewhere.
1695 votes

Joined: May 2016

Saturday 11:17 AM
OK Ras!! We get it. 2-3 to the crib. Keep the diamond deuce to maybe go with one of the other diamonds to fake a flush.
4956 votes

Joined: October 2007

Saturday 2:21 PM
Three likely choices here I think - 2-2-3-8H (7-8D), 2-7-8-8 (2-3) and perhaps 3-7-7-8 (2-2):

2-2-3-8H: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 10½pts

2-7-8-8: 6pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 12¾pts

3-7-8-8: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.72) = 11¾pts


2-2-3-8H: Improves with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 5555, 777, 88 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 5555, 88 + 16xXs = 35 cuts.

2-7-8-8: Improves with 22, 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 10/12/14pts with 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 17 cuts.

3-7-8-8: Improves with 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 10/12pts with 4444, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 17 cuts.


We're both 2pts short of third street positional hole but we're there as Dealer and Pone is 18pts short of where they would like to be. So I think we can afford to play Offense.


I think 2-2-3-8 will peg best as it has 3 small cards and a middle card together with a magic eleven.


2-7-8-8 is best for starting value by 2¼pt but 2-2-3-8 has many more cuts for improvement and 35 cuts for 8-12pts compared to 17 cuts for 10-14pts with 2-7-8-8. Also 2-2-3-8 should peg better so I think it will catch up the 2¼pts and I'll throw the 7-8D.
4682 votes

Joined: February 2008

Saturday 2:25 PM
At 68*-68 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging (cautious offense) the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %

Optimal_______L4 %____L5 %

2-2-3-8H is best for expected averages by 0.22pt but in this board position approaching 3rd street positional hole Win/Loss %s are more important. 2-7-8-8 is appreciably best for Win %s and very much lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 2S-3 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Offense to the lead.