Today's results so far

*** This hand was suggested by mrob2199
95-100*  ?
50%
26%
12%
10%
1%
Total votes: 138

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

JQT
2552 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Saturday 3:00 AM
With our opponent Leading at Hole 100 and Dealing, I am going to look for anything to 'jam up the works' of the Dealer's Crib.

I'd Toss (9 K) here if I thought it was a whole lot better than Toss (7 K), but as we were dealt three Middle Cards, I think Toss (7 K) will do nearly as well today.

The Truly Brave among us might Toss (A K); the Super Scared may choose Toss (6 K)! I'd be hard-pressed to criticize either.

We need to prevent Dealer Pegs, so I don't wish to get stuck with that Lone Ace; therefore, let's lead it!
james500
2229 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 3:11 AM
On average, Dealer will score 26 points over the next two hands. I need to hold them to no more than 20, and K-9 is a good "anchor".
dec
4575 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 3:18 AM
What is more essential now a chance at ten points or balking the opponents crib. Something in my mind about giving up a seven on fourth street. Even thou a chance at 105 or deeper would be great I have to hope for the extreme lows for them. Ace lead. dec
joekayak
841 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Saturday 3:25 AM
I'm already barely inside my 4th street CPZ. Opponent is dealing and is already beyond it. Must become a chicken and go BALK BALK BALK. (Say it out loud.) Given this hand K-9 it is.
Rosemarie44
1317 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Saturday 4:41 AM
I must be the truly "Brave" as I tossed A-K to dealer. After coffee and a later start this morning, I will look at previous discard options that were chosen earlier today.
Gougie00
3995 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 4:44 AM
I went wide with the A-K. The Cribbage Fairy hates me today. Lead the 9?
RubyTuesday
178 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Saturday 5:25 AM
I was torn between 7 K and A K. Not so much Truly Brave as Truly Got It Wrong.
zeke76
328 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Saturday 6:15 AM
Defense. Too bad the cut gave them a 15-2 in the crib.
glmccuskey
3051 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Saturday 6:16 AM
At 95 I wanted to keep the two points. I’ll lead the ace and peg as defensively as I can.
mfetchCT425
367 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Saturday 6:46 AM
I think our best chance to win this game is to balk opponent’s crib and try to keep them back as far as possible, so defense is in order today. Will retain my 2 points and toss the defensive 7-K. This will guarantee us to be at least to hole 98 as dealer next round before the cut. This hold gives us a nice variety of cards that should allow us to stay away from any runs and should be difficult I think for opponent to read and peg on. We will need some luck to win this one but if opponent is dealt a sub-par hand and we successfully ball their crib, we can possibly turn the tables here.
HK343
11 votes

Joined: July 2012

   
Saturday 7:30 AM
I threw 79, and held zero points. Trying to blank the crib with the all or nothing toss. Dealer’s most likely crib tosses involve X5, A4, 23, or 78. We blank three of those here. Don’t have enough wiggle room to throw AK or K7 here, as a small crib (four points) likely ends the game as much as a big one does anyway. It’s either zero crib or we lose. And keeping the Ace to lead from. We need a lot of luck, but let’s see what happens when the page turns.
JQT
2552 votes

Joined: October 2008

Saturday 1:11 PM
The Dealer will of course attempt to energize his or her own Crib with two cards that can "boost" the Crib Value.

As an aside, I don't believe that any of these hands will peg very well for us as Pone, especially in the realm of defense, where the 'oddball' Lone Ace stands out as a potential liability rather than an asset.

But also, maybe we could investigate just how many Cut Cards will help each of the '6 choose 2' or fifteen possible Discard Choices today. Let's take a look at them:

Toss (A 6) 13 Cuts (AAA, 666, 8888, 999)
Toss (A 7) 10 Cuts (AAA, 777, 8888)
Toss (A 9) 13 Cuts (AAA, 5555, 666, 999)
Toss (A J) 14 Cuts (AAA, 4444, 5555, JJJ)
Toss (A K) 14 Cuts (AAA, 4444, 5555, KKK)
Toss (6 7) 21 Cuts (2222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999)
Toss (6 9) 06 Cuts (666, 999)
Toss (6 J) 13 Cuts (5555, 666, 999, JJJ)
Toss (6 K) 13 Cuts (5555, 666, 999, KKK)
Toss (7 9) 13 Cuts (666, 777, 8888, 999)
Toss (7 J) 14 Cuts (5555, 777, 8888, JJJ)
Toss (7 K) 14 Cuts (5555, 777, 8888, KKK)
Toss (9 J) 17 Cuts (5555, 666, 999, TTTT, JJJ)
Toss (9 K) 13 Cuts (5555, 666, 999, KKK)
Toss (J K) 14 Cuts (5555, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK)

Since only "same cards" can aid Toss (6 9), it 'chimes in' today with the fewest possible Cuts that help, a total of only 6 Cuts.

But among the fifteen unique discard choices, Toss (6 9) is also the only selection that begins by "giving away" the (15-2) for Two Points right from the start. That means not only two holes less for us as Pone, but more importantly, two holes more for the Dealer!

The next lowest tally is 10 Cuts, for Toss (A 7). And interestingly enough, this Discard Choice would also allow us to retain our own Two Points!

Therefore, if we are looking for that elusive "all or nothing" Discard Choice today, perhaps using some of HK343's interesting logic (above) today, Toss (A 7) has some merit. But its 'bias' however is geared more towards the frequency of the "random" Cut, and not towards the Dealer's "most likely" choices. - j q t -
Andy (muesli64)
1562 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Saturday 1:37 PM
A-K. because 7-K can have expensive consequences via the 7. Look at the position. 10 or 12 in the crib is the end.
JCM
155 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Saturday 1:49 PM
I chose the J-K discard, keeping 9-6 as 2 points and intending to lead the Ace.

Looks like the "greats" here disagree with me. Also, JQT has pointed out there are 14 cuts boosting the J-K discard, but only 10 cuts boosting the A-7 discard. Holding the J gives us a chance at nobs as well.

So, I guess I'm learning today :-)
Ras2829
3463 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Saturday 2:19 PM
It would seem the potential hand value of holding the two gappers 7-9 and 9-J will offset the small difference in averages of 7-K 4.246 (1,953 11/91 and A-K 4.331 (2,571) 13/91. The 7-K is 20% more likely to score 12 or more points.
mrob2199
116 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Saturday 2:22 PM
HK pretty much sums up my thoughts on this hand-we basically have nothing in our hand,so our only thought should be to limit the dealer in his crib and pegging-we need a lot of things to go right for this plan to succeed but if the right circumstances pop up we have to be there to take advantage of it-this is what I like to refer to as an all or nothing throw-the 79 occasionally gives up 12 but often times 0 or 2-so you must factor that into your decision-Also you have to factor in the mindset of the dealer at this point-he is going to expect you to discard something like 10-k to the crib-so if he has a marginal hand with a 5 in it,he might choose to discard it to his own crib to go with the expected picture cards from me-this would also mean he has kept little cards or an assortment of non picture cards to maximize his pegging opportunities-now by keeping the horrendous hand of A-6-J-K,there is no way for him to predict that hold-we lead the ace,hope it gets by,and play off the rest of the hand-I feel this is our best chance to eventually gain victory here-I liken it to a basketball game where the trailing team fouls the leading team and hopes they miss-if they don’t they will win-and if the dealer picks up 4556 here,well there’s nothing we can do-but fortune sometimes shines on the prepared -actually this hand occurred against the great Doug Page in Raleigh-the cut was a 5- so I had 4 points-but he only had a 4 point hand,and his discard of 2-2 didn’t match with the 5-7-9 so only a 2 crib-I was fortunate to cut into a 12 the next hand so I ended up winning-obviously I caught some lucky breaks here but I had a plan and it ended up coming through