Today's results so far

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
13-9*  ?
48%
26%
17%
5%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 197

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

james500
2506 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 3:15 AM
Six points is plenty.
Very little synergy between the Q and 8, although they are the same suit.
mrob2199
342 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 3:25 AM
Little too much risk in keeping the Q for the extra 2 points-keep the 6 points with the open ended double run possibilities and the safe Q-8 discard
cribbagepogo
2977 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 3:36 AM
Wrong person dealing!!! No 5/Q nor 7/8. Too dangerous even this early.
thelawnet
157 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Tuesday 3:41 AM
today we have a choice of:

89 (5TTQ)
16 with a cut of a J or 5 (7)
14 with a cut of a T (2)
12 with a cut of a Q (3)
10 with a cut of a K (4)
otherwise 8 (30)
= 9.91
It incurs ~5.5 points, and could go up to 24.

8Q (59TT) - which scores
14 with cut of J (4)
12 with cut of 5, 8, 10 (8)
8 with cut of A, 6, 9, Q, K (18)
otherwise 6 (16)
8.52
It incurs ~4.2 points, and could go up to 14.

9Q (58TT) - which scores
12 with 5, 9, T (8)
8 with 2, 7, 8, J, Q, K (22)
otherwise 6 (16)
= 8 exactly
It incurs ~3.9 points, and could go up to 14.

We can see that 59TT is a decent bit stronger than 58TT, but the 9Q toss is more likely to blank pone. Blanking is not a major goal here, we are far from home, and our first priority is scoring more points than pone. There isn't too much to choose between these two hands for pegging. We really can disregard the 9Q toss.

So we have a choice between 5TTQ with the 89 toss, and 59TT with the 8Q toss. Both appear to have a similar hand - crib value. I think that 5TTQ will be the cheapest pegging hand for us (as non-dealer we should count on LOSING the pegging). It's my assessment therefore that 5TTQ comes out a bit ahead of 59QQ. However this is likely to be by 0.1 or 0.2 points.

On the other hand, 89 can incur 24 points, which probably won't happen, but it seems to me that even though 5TTQ has the highest expected value by maybe 0.1 or 0.2 points, we cannot win a game of cribbage by 0.2 points, but we can certainly lose one by 20!

So I will hold 59TT, and expect to end this deal on around 24*-25, and therefore a >50% chance of winning.

Will lead the T, and the cut of 7 doesn't change that. Will pair a 5 reply.
dec
4886 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 4:15 AM
Taking a chance with eight cuts to get sixteen points would not be a good decision on my part to give them Q-5. Good with a wide discard for opportunities of twelve to fourteen points. Tens the lead , a nine lead might lead to many pegging opportunities for opponent with the seven other cards involved. dec
JQT
2843 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 5:28 AM
It's Toss (8 9) and 'Turtles All The Way Down' ... at least until approaching Fourth Street.

Interesting if Toss (5 Q) would be chosen if the score were say (109-106*)?
Gougie00
4284 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 5:37 AM
That's what I get for being clever. I tried to sneak the 89 into crib and if I am lucky it will have only 5. Might be 12 or more. Yuck. Lead the 10 and try to peg a little. Relatively good position now but I'd like to be at hole 25.
SallyAnn3
70 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Tuesday 6:18 AM
Playing it safe to hold 6 vs 8.
Jazzselke
1481 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 6:23 AM
Will give up 2 points in this position to not throw 89 or 5Q.
mfetchCT425
552 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 7:13 AM
Like the 8-Q defensive toss and the touching 9-10-10. I think it’s worth giving up 2 points to avoid a block buster crib.
dgergens
590 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Tuesday 7:27 AM
I know the math will say I'm wrong, but my choice today reflects my own personal battle scars. After that cut, I don't think my choice will score much worse than anyone else's.
horus93
725 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Tuesday 11:57 AM
Happy to take a chance for a double run with so much game to go. Our opponent has a nine point deficit so I'm okay with risking 5-Q. Even if it blows up it won't likely put him back in the game.
joekayak
1090 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Tuesday 12:30 PM
Q-5 scary throw. 8-9 almost as scary. 6 point hand to go with our 13 and next deal is good enough. Q-8 throw far less scary at this point in the game.
RubyTuesday
434 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Tuesday 3:31 PM
Throwing 89 will be fine as long as a 7 isn’t cut.
Coeurdelion
4204 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 4:00 PM
I think it's between 5-10-10-Q (8-9) and 5-9-10-10 (8-Q). I don't think 8-9-10-10 (5-Q) will compete but I'll examine it:

5-10-10-Q: 8pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = +2¼pts

5-9-10-10: 6pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = +1¾pts

8-9-10-10: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.34) = +½pt

Potential:

5-10-10-Q: Improves with 555 + 13xXs = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 12/14/16pts with 555, 1010, JJJJ, QQQ = 12 cuts.

5-9-10-10: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 888, 999 + 13xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 12pts with 555, 888, 1010, JJJJ = 12 cuts.

8-9-10-10: Improves with 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 1010, JJJJ = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12/15/16pts with 555, 7777, 888, 999, 1010 = 15 cuts.

Position:

It looks like it's second deal and we were first Dealer. We've scored below average by 3pts but I'll carry on playing Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 5-9-10-10 and 5-10-10-Q will peg better.

Summary:

5-10-10-Q has a starting value ½pt better than 5-9-10-10 and has a better maximum of 16pts. 5-9-10-10 has more cuts for improvement and still 12 cuts for a dozen. However I think I'll risk the 8-9 and keep 8pts.
HalscribCLX
3973 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 4:16 PM
At 13-9* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

__________________Pone's
Defense____Hand___Pegs___Crib___Total____W8 %____W9 %
5-10-10-Q__9.91+(-2.70)+(-5.22)=1.99____38.2____54.7
5-9-10-10__8.52+(-2.61)+(-4.16)=1.75____34.6____53.2
5-8-10-10__8.00+(-2.67)+(-3.89)=1.44____32.7____51.9
5-8-9-10___7.57+(-3.09)+(-4.41)=0.07____32.1____50.3
8-9-10-10_10.30+(-2.98)+(-7.36)=(-0.04)_38.1____51.6

Defense_______L8 %____L9 %
5-10-10-Q______22.1____20.0
5-9-10-10______19.6____20.6
5-8-10-10______19.0____21.3
5-8-9-10_______20.9____23.0
8-9-10-10______27.0____24.2

5-10-10-Q is best for expected averages by 0.24pt and significantly best for Win %s. 5-9-10-10 is lowest for Loss %s with 5-8-10-10 very close behind. But 5-10-10-Q is not too much higher. So I'll select 8-9 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead a 10 and play Defense:

Lead_________Pone's Pegging Pts.
10__________________(-2.41)
Q___________________(-2.57)
5___________________(-3.24)