Today's results so far

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0*-0  ?
46%
36%
5%
5%
4%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 215

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

james500
2443 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 3:18 AM
Before I started using this site I would've chosen A-J for a five point hand, and left the crib to fend for itself. I've since learned to choose 2-3 for a minimum of 4+2=6 points. The latest advice though, (I seem to think anyway), is that if one/both of the X cards is a Jack, to keep the A-2-3-4 run.

A-4 was never in my thinking.
mrob2199
282 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 3:27 AM
Nice puzzle today Ras-I said a couple days ago I don’t love keeping the A234 together-but in today’s puzzle it’s the best keep IMO-the 10-j is a decent discard to our own crib-if the 10-j were 10-q,10-k,j-k or q-k I would keep the pictures with the Ace-4 and discard 2-3-the open ended aspect of the 10-j provides extra value
dec
4824 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:52 AM
Difference of start of game and being in positions later of being more desperate. Pegging could be offensive or very defensive depending on lead. dec
horus93
685 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Tuesday 5:05 AM
I wanted the touchies in the crib but Liam says I'm definitely wrong and by such a margin that the pegging won't make up the difference (toss 2-3 is 13.3, t-j is 12.6).

When oh when will I learn how to dance around these configurations?
Gougie00
4218 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 6:00 AM
2-3? Surprised the experts didnt toss 2-3 to their own crib without a flush to consider.
Rosemarie44
1542 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 6:35 AM
I like 2-3 to crib with hand starting at 4 and has a maximum of 11 points. Great starter card
wasa
1547 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 7:44 AM
Whenever I can toss myself 5-5 or 2-3 into my crib I smile. To me, didn't think hard about 2-3 to my crib here.
RubyTuesday
380 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Tuesday 8:23 AM
I wanted to toss 2 3 into my crib but decided to throw 10 J instead.
cwed
1036 votes

Joined: October 2014

   
Tuesday 8:26 AM
I toss 2-3 to my crib from this hand every time I see it.
joekayak
1037 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Tuesday 9:09 AM
Good arguments both ways. I like the run in my hand with the touchies in the crib.
mfetchCT425
493 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 10:03 AM
If the two faces were split (10-Q, J-K, 10-K) or were on the end (Q-K) or were a pair (10-10, J-J, etc), I would toss 2-3. The 5 cut isn’t great for the hand but we may have a nice crib waiting for us.
JQT
2779 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 12:12 PM
I also used to *always* Toss (2 3) from such hands, but we must beware of terms like *always* and *never* in Cribbage and in Life!

Because I also always never used to wear a mask while taking out my trash . . .
Andy (muesli64)
1706 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 1:23 PM
Would throw 2-3. Better yield of points. Surprised the field is against that. Ras?
dgergens
529 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Tuesday 2:39 PM
Tossing 2,3 has more points out of the gate. Unless there is some other hidden knowledge here? Didn't feel like hoping for a double run this time.
Coeurdelion
4139 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 4:04 PM
Mick Michaelis' hand where he demonstrated that from A-2-3-4-X-X (2-3) can be the best throw. However Ras has shown that taking account of the pegging and close cards to the box A-2-3-4 can be the better keep:

A-4-10-J: 4pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10¾pts

A-2-3-4: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.61) = 8¾pts

Potential:

A-4-10-J: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 9999 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 7//8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 24 cuts. Plus 10 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

A-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer I'll play Defense. Positional hole is 8pts but I'll try to score the average of 16pts for pegging, hand and crib.

Pegging:

A-2-3-4 will peg better than A-4-10-J. Although playing Defense I think A-4-10-J will be OK too.

Summary:

A-4-10-J is 2pts better for starting value and also has the benefit of the nob potential. However A-2-3-4 has guaranteed improvement and 38 cuts for 7-10pts. So I think A-2-3-4 will catch up the 2¼pts therefore I'll throw the touching 10-J.
HalscribCLX
3909 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 4:07 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense__Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
A-4-10-J__6.74+(-2.00)+6.44=11.18____38.9____52.2
A-2-3-4___8.09+(-2.20)+4.43=10.32____38.7____50.4
2-3-10-J__7.13+(-2.15)+5.25=10.23____36.1____49.8

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
A-4-10-J______25.3____22.4
A-2-3-4_______27.9____24.6
2-3-10-J______25.6____24.4

A-4-10-J is best for expected averages by 0.86pt and is slightly best for Win %s and slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
3674 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 9:24 PM
Actually I had inside knowledge pertinent to this hand as dealer of opening hand. The puzzle is from a game with Cribbage Prof although had noticed the same pattern with Halscrib and REX, all programs developed by Hal Mueller. If playing a defense pegging strategy, discarding the 2-3 is correct as A-4-10-J gives up fewer pegs and scores a much larger crib. Now if the choice is offense as dealer as it might be in other positions on the board, mrob2199 outlines it very well. If the ten-pointers are 10-J or J-Q, hold A-2-3-4. If the J-K is present, it's a push as to whether to discard 2-3 or the J-K. If the low-scoring 10-K 2.836, 10-Q 3.166, or Q-K 3.483 are present, then 2-3 would give the better combined average. Those weak X-point combinations to own crib score 0-2 a very high percentage of the time. For example 10-K does so at a 50.043%; Q-K is at 46.674%; and 10-Q scores 0-2 45.069%. So if you were looking at a fairly simple rule to apply, here goes. If the X-point combination does not include a Jack, discard the 2-3 when playing an offense pegging strategy. If the J-K were the choice, it's a push (choose either.) My choice with the J-K present would be to play A-2-3-4. If the two X-pointers are 10-J or J-Q, clearly choose the X-pointers as your discard. Yes, its. def., def., def., and play off the lead. That means to play the Ace on X-point leads and the four on most other leads. If a trey were led, would respond with the 10 spot. If a deuce lead, would respond with the four spot. On most mid-card leads would play the Jack. Appreciate all the fine wisdom shared this day. Don't like sacrificing the national economy in response to this virus. Some precautions make sense (distancing and eliminating large groups). So many make it sound as though the death rate would be zero without this pandemic. Cars kill 50,000 annually, drug overdoses exceed 100,000 per year, self inflicted gun shot wounds claim more than 45,000 annually, regular winter time visitors (flu strains, pneumonia, etc.) claim an average of more than 50,000 annually. Deaths from murder are nearly 20,000 annually. Lewis county Washington as of yesterday had 7 tested positive (all beyond age 50), none are hospitalized and no deaths here. We have two counties with 85% of the cases. So would favor more local control. Here social distancing and no groups of more than 10 would be all that is necessary. Re=open restaurants and seat with some spacing. If the lock-down continues into June as some are suggesting, it will take years to recover. Our economy will still be in the tank when the next pandemic arrives on our shores. JQT, that's my take on it.