Today's results so far

*** This hand was suggested by joekayak
12*-15  ?
59%
40%
Total votes: 168

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

dec
4779 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 3:08 AM
When you got a chance for 14 to 21 I will keep that choice. never keen on K-5 to the crib and despite being more difficult to peg defensively here I just might play on depending on lead card. dec
JQT
2730 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 3:23 AM
With two 4 Cards and one Trey, I might have to think about Toss (5 K).

But with the wonderful start of Ten Points that is (3 3 4 5), it's no debate at all. Toss (8 K) it is.
thelawnet
46 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Sunday 4:00 AM
there doesn't appear to be a catch here, although there are similar looking hands where it can pay to balance crib + hand, in this case we max out our hand and anything else in the crib is a bonus.
Jazzselke
1403 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Sunday 4:11 AM
If the configuration was 34458K usually the play is to throw 5K. But 3345 is a much stronger hand; even a 7 or 8 cut is 14. Alas, only an ace does not help 3345!
james500
2399 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 4:35 AM
I share the opinion of those above.
I would break up an eight point 3-4-4-5 double run to discard X-5, but wouldn't do so with the ten point 3-3-4-5.
Gougie00
4172 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 5:15 AM
Anything but an Ace! Ugh!
RubyTuesday
337 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Sunday 5:26 AM
What did I miss? The 3 3 4 5 fifteen!
horus93
646 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Sunday 6:09 AM
A magic 11 and a 5-trap
wasa
1504 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Sunday 6:47 AM
Saw the ten points vs 8. 5-K to crib is nice. Trying to recall RAS's lesson as to when to break up a double run. Will have to Google that this morning (or wait until RAS chimes in).
Ras2829
3634 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 9:46 AM
This hand is one of the finest hands in cribbage, ten points prior to the cut, a potential of 21 points and a 3-card 11. On a 10-point lead go ahead and take the 15-2; if opponent holding X-X-X-X will advance count to 25 and you can see where that goes. If opponent pairs your five, play a trey for 23, a likely go and you still get the threes in back to back though not for 31. Half the time dealer cannot put anything in crib except "leftovers". That might be 10-K, 9-K, 9-Q, 6-K or as today with 8-K. There are very few discards in from dealer hand worth a sacrifice of points. The 5-K is one of those although no more than two points in hand score can be sacrificed. In this case, you would be giving up four points in hand score (dropping from 10-6). BTW if hand would have been 3-4-4-5-8-K,the combined values would be very close on whether to play the double run or 3-4-4-8. Not so when the double in this arrangement is 3-3. If you would like to know more about Big Hand Rule, sacrifice limits, etc. email raswino29@outlook.com. My first thought was to play def. since opponent needs 11 to reach hole 26 for upcoming deal. After seeing the Ace cut which is the only card not adding value to 3-3-4-5 and with no known points in crib, will shift to optimal and look for pegs which seem reasonably safe. See wasa comments above if you wish to watch You-Tube video on this and related subjects.
Rosemarie44
1498 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 11:42 AM
Late to the party. Tossing 8-K cause 10 points to start can't be overlooked. Let's see comments.
Coeurdelion
4101 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 3:54 PM
Double-run or 5-K to crib?:

3-3-4-5: 10pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.16) = 13¼pts

3-3-4-8: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 12½pts

Potential:

3-3-4-5: Improves with 2222, 33, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/20/21pts with 2222, 33, 444, 555, 6666. 7777, 888 = 23 cuts.

3-3-4-8: Improves with 2222, 33, 444, 555, 7777, 888, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12/14pts with 2222, 33, 444, 555, 888 = 15 cuts.

Position:

Looks like we were First Pone and although we scored 12pts opponent still has positional advantage so I'll continue to play Offense.

Pegging:

Both hands will peg well playing Offense but I think 3-3-4-5 will peg better.

Summary:

3-3-4-5 has more cuts for improvement, a higher maximum and 23 cuts for 12-21pts. It also will peg better I think. So I'll throw 8-K.
HalscribCLX
3871 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 3:59 PM
At 12*-15 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W8 %____W9 %
3-3-4-5___13.74+3.74+3.15=20.63____40.8____35.6
3-3-4-8____8.61+3.37+6.60=18.58____34.9____31.3

Offense_______L8 %____L9 %
3-3-4-5_______39.6____43.0
3-3-4-8_______38.5____46.2

3-3-4-5 is better for expected averages by 2.05pts and is better for Win %s and Loss %s so I'll select 8-K to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Offense to the lead.