Saturday 3:01 AM

As we are Dealer and tied at Hole 68, this is now akin to a "short" game, perhaps after one deal has passed.

We'd rather be at the Second Street Par Hole 70, so it would be nice to optimize our Hand and Crib to get back on track.

We could Toss (2 3) or Toss (7 8), so it's between good and great! But which one is the "great" discard? Toss (2 3) is more likely to receive help from our Opponent, and that's where two-thirds of the help comes from in Cribbage. But Toss (7 8) is also a fantastic discard!

And that's because Pone is as likely to throw a Middle Card such as a 6, 7, 8, or 9 Card, as Pone is likely to throw a Small Card such as Ace, Deuce, Trey, or 4 Card.

Nothing usually beats Toss (2 3) in terms of Future Growth in our Crib, and I believe it's the right discard today. We can probably peg more defensively if we Keep (2 7 8 8).

After the Queen Cut, our Hand still has just Six Points, and yet we have very good prospects for our Crib. Meanwhile, we can probably best defend during the pegging without several of those pesky Small Cards.

With great help from fellow "Hand of the Day" poster, fentesk, I was also able to confirm the conjecture that Evil Wordle can indeed be solved with just Five Guesses, and did so in virtually poetic fashion: ready, pluck, fight, moons, BOMBS!

I also conjured a way so that Guess Six in Evil Wordle would become "BOOBS" after: ready, pluck, fight, swoon, zooms, BOOBS. My supposition is that this feat can also be performed in a few as Five Guesses, a proof I leave for the reader.

   

Saturday 3:02 AM

Like to keep 788 together. LOVE 23 to my crib.

   

Saturday 3:07 AM

Two good discards available in 2-3 or 7-8d.

Two open-ended double run possibilities that could be kept in -2-2-3- or -7-8-8-.

Six points plus 2-3 in the crib seems good to me.

   

Saturday 3:17 AM

I saw the three diamonds might be a few plays to utilize a fake flush play. Two-three in the crib always warranted. dec

   

Saturday 3:56 AM

I wanted that 223 together. Looks like I'm an outlier today.

   

Saturday 4:21 AM

After reading comments from Goatman and dec, I realize that I threw the wrong 2!

   

Saturday 5:07 AM

Potential for 12 or 14 with this hold while stashing the powerful 2-3 to our own crib? Sign me up!!!!

   

Saturday 5:08 AM

   

Saturday 5:10 AM

23 a higher average than 78, and more likely to be helped by the opponent; hope for the somewhat popular hi-low toss of AX.

   

Saturday 5:27 AM

I should be back on track after this discard...with this cut, I'm not so sure. Now I may need to risk taking a couple of points on the pegging I otherwise wouldn't have had to take if I'd gotten the cut I wanted........

   

Saturday 6:25 AM

Whether I toss 7-8 or 2-3, every cut helps hand or crib. That's unusual. Since 2-3 averages more, off it goes!

   

Saturday 7:16 AM

This is a tight game and somewhere on my journey to par holes 70 & 96 I need @ least three additional points to be @ 111-104*. Following Rob’s soon to be even more famous cribbage theorem ..” don’t over think this” ..powerful 2-3 to the crib ..and to repeat scott …..cut help… hand or crib …from 13/13 ranks

   

Saturday 8:04 AM

Tied at 68 with a hand that is crib friendly. 7-8 or 2-3 to the crib are both fantastic, and then there's the 2-2-3-8 hold that would have benefited from the cut card, but too late now. 2S-3H to the crib. I will attempt to fake a flush and peg with caution while still trying to pick up an extra point or two. Nice puzzle.

   

Saturday 8:19 AM

Since it was my crib, I went with toss 2-3

   

Saturday 9:49 AM

Must be a catch somewhere.

   

Saturday 11:17 AM

OK Ras!! We get it. 2-3 to the crib. Keep the diamond deuce to maybe go with one of the other diamonds to fake a flush.

   

Saturday 2:21 PM

Three likely choices here I think - 2-2-3-8H (7-8D), 2-7-8-8 (2-3) and perhaps 3-7-7-8 (2-2):

2-2-3-8H: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 10½pts

2-7-8-8: 6pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 12¾pts

3-7-8-8: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.72) = 11¾pts

Potential:

2-2-3-8H: Improves with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 5555, 777, 88 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 5555, 88 + 16xXs = 35 cuts.

2-7-8-8: Improves with 22, 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 10/12/14pts with 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 17 cuts.

3-7-8-8: Improves with 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 10/12pts with 4444, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 17 cuts.

Position:

We're both 2pts short of third street positional hole but we're there as Dealer and Pone is 18pts short of where they would like to be. So I think we can afford to play Offense.

Pegging:

I think 2-2-3-8 will peg best as it has 3 small cards and a middle card together with a magic eleven.

Summary:

2-7-8-8 is best for starting value by 2¼pt but 2-2-3-8 has many more cuts for improvement and 35 cuts for 8-12pts compared to 17 cuts for 10-14pts with 2-7-8-8. Also 2-2-3-8 should peg better so I think it will catch up the 2¼pts and I'll throw the 7-8D.

   

Saturday 2:25 PM

At 68*-68 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging (cautious offense) the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
2-2-3-8H___7.87+1.48+6.39=15.73____45.7____37.6
2-7-8-8____8.30+0.39+6.82=15.51____47.7____43.3
3-7-8-8____8.35+0.65+5.38=14.38____41.8____37.8

Optimal_______L4 %____L5 %
2-2-3-8H_______44.7____46.1
2-7-8-8________39.6____41.5
3-7-8-8________39.5____46.3

2-2-3-8H is best for expected averages by 0.22pt but in this board position approaching 3rd street positional hole Win/Loss %s are more important. 2-7-8-8 is appreciably best for Win %s and very much lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 2S-3 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Offense to the lead.