Thursday 3:12 AM

Let it be known I am not confident in my decisions when it comes to an "end" game choice.

Thursday 3:19 AM

Kept the most points in hand. A 7 will win it, anything else and I'm probably losing.

Thursday 3:29 AM

Let's examine both (A 6 8 8) and (A 4 5 6) to begin our analysis:

(A 6 8 8) yields Ten Points or more after Twelve Cuts (AAA, 666, 7777, 88), which is 12/46 equals 0.261 and thus will occur about 26% of the time; (A 4 5 6) yields Ten Points or more after Nine Cuts (444, 555, 666), which is 9/46 equals 0.196 and thus will occur nearly 20% of the time.

(A 6 8 8) yields Nine Points or more after Sixteen Cuts (AAA, 666, 7777, 88, 9999), which is 16/46 equals 0.348 and thus will occur nearly 35% of the time; (A 4 5 6) yields Nine Points or more after Twenty-Nine Cuts (444, 555, 666, 9999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which is 29/46 equals 0.630 and thus will occur about 63% of the time.

(A 6 8 8) yields Eight Points or more after Sixteen Cuts (AAA, 666, 7777, 88, 9999), which is 16/46 equals 0.348 and thus will occur nearly 35% of the time; (A 4 5 6) yields Eight Points or more after Thirty-Three Cuts (3333, 444, 555, 666, 9999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which is 33/46 equals 0.717 and thus will occur nearly 72% of the time.

What's abundantly clear is that if we get a poor Cut Card, we shall likely LOSE this game. But the above calculations also give us quite a bit of hope if we do obtain a fortuitous Cut Card. The data also hints that one other idea, namely (4 5 6 8), might even be superior to (A 6 8 8), given the dire nature of the Relative Score. 🤔

If we cannot peg at all, we should clearly Keep (A 6 8 8) and Toss (4 5); but if we can peg Two Holes, which is a tiny bit LESS than Pone Average Pegging, then we should probably Keep (A 4 5 6) and Toss (8 8). What 'clinches' it for me is that (A 4 5 6) is perhaps the Premier Pone Pegging Presentation! 🌻

Let's Toss (8 8) today, and be rid of those Crazy Eights. After the Deuce Cut, we are stymied with just Five Points, needing to peg a massive Six Holes. And yet, this is maybe just the Hand that could do it; let's lead the Ace and get to it.

Wordle 1,398 4/6 (all 💚 GREEN!)

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⬛⬛🟩⬛⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Thursday 3:41 AM

Pretty straight forward to me, gotta maximize the opportunity to go out with your count, opps crib doesn't matter.

Thursday 3:44 AM

Defense is out the door here. We need as many hand building or game hole cuts. we got two more lead the ace . We need them to have matching cards here to win. End run very difficult to do. dec

Thursday 3:58 AM

The cribbage fairy hates me again, ugh ...

Thursday 4:21 AM

Crib is immaterial. Keeping most likely best melder and best pegger. Very disappointing cut.

Thursday 4:56 AM

Most cuts for 8 or more as detailed by JQT.

Thursday 5:26 AM

Going all in for a 7 cut

Thursday 5:39 AM

Ace lead. I can score on responses of: 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or X.

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
17th Apr 2025
🏆Score: 121 to 119
🔥SP: 1370
📅Streak: 19
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/460/3333658/1

Thursday 5:51 AM

Going with more cuts to get me there, especially faces.

Thursday 6:33 AM

Lead the 4 and pray.

Thursday 6:42 AM

Hand over the 8s, keep pegging cards hope for good cut to boost hand(didn’t happen), and accept our fate!

Thursday 6:42 AM

Hand over the 8s, keep pegging cards hope for good cut to boost hand(didn’t happen), and accept our fate!

Thursday 8:16 AM

imo..... this gives us the best chance at pegging something plus hand count.

Thursday 9:57 AM

Kept it this way because I know it is Pone's best offensive pegging hand; but you got top lead the *Ace*, not the 4.

Thursday 9:57 AM

*to*

Thursday 1:47 PM

At 110-117* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___Win %___Loss %
4-5-6-8____8.04+1.61+(-4.48)=5.17____40.3____59.7
A-4-5-6____8.48+1.50+(-6.36)=3.62____74.4____25.6
A-6-8-8____7.48+1.20+(-7.20)=1.48____30.0____70.0

4-5-6-8 is best for expected averages but A-4-5-6 is very much best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. In this end of game board position the Win/loss %s are the most important so I'll select the 8-8 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead the 5 and play Offense:

Lead_______________Our Pegging Points____Loss %
A_________________________1.36____________69.4
4_________________________1.25____________68.8
6_________________________1.17____________73.5
5_________________________0.71____________63.2

Although the A lead is best for Our Pegging Points the 5 lead is lowest for Loss %s.