Thursday 3:38 AM

I will take my chances with the double-run

Thursday 3:46 AM

I will keep eight . I would have played on also. Playing to win confident here. dec

Thursday 3:50 AM

Double run.

Thursday 4:13 AM

I'd choose 9 with Q/K, but not 10/J.

Wordle 1,482 5/6

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Thursday 4:22 AM

We are Pone with a significant Fourteen-Point lead as we arrive on Fourth Street. Our lead inspires confidence, and all we need to remain "on pace" is to reach beyond the Fourth Street Par Hole 96 by completion of this deal. Either the Double Run of (A 2 3 3) or (2 3 3 J) can meet this goal, but the Double Run "meets and exceeds" it, so we are left to contrast and compare Toss (9 J) with a Crib Value of 4.96 Points with Toss (A 9) and its Crib Value of 4.55 Points (Schell). Other discard tables can only find a maximum difference of about 0.75 Points between these two ideas. 🤔

I don't think an added 0.41 Points, or even 0.75 Points, has much significance, not with our Opponent at Hole 78, but that won't stop a few sleuths from finding that one exists should we lose! The fact is, there is almost always a specific Dealer Discard or set of circumstances that can defeat us, or a pegging battle that "goes all wrong" that can harm us, but we shouldn't let an occasional random result affect the way we approach our decision-making process. According to Rex Cribbage, Toss (9 J) boosts our odds of losing over Toss (A 9) from just below 1% to just above 1%! It's barely noticeable! 🎠

We often debate Discard Decisions that differ in NET Total by less than half-a-point, but today, Toss (9 J) is nearly Two Points superior in aggregate to any other discard, so it's not even close. (A 2 3 3) starts out with Eight Points, can reach Sixteen Points, and will attain a Dozen Points after Twenty-Six Cut Cards (AAA, 222, 33, 999, TTTT, JJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which is 26/46 equals 0.565 and thus will occur nearly 57% of the time! No other hand comes close. 🎨

Choosing Toss (A 9) for "defense" trades away an added greater than 30% chance of winning, for a fraction of 1% decrease in odds of losing, an abysmal trade-off! I would even contend that Toss (A 9) jeopardizes the outcome of this game far more than Toss (9 J), because the slightly lower chance of getting into pegging difficulty, along with a fractionally lower risk in the Crib, cannot offset the huge loss in Hand Value if we don't retain the Double Run! Cribbage can be a rough game: Don't beat yourself up over a rare loss that could only have been prevented by making a discard that would have actually INCREASED your chances of losing. 🐶

Let's Toss (9 J) today, and risk that extra less-than-half-point difference in Crib Value. After the Ace Cut, we now have Sixteen Points; let's lead a Trey from our PAIR. Remember: The best discard is NOT the particular discard that would have maybe won that particular game; the best discard is the one that you would choose to do all over again, given the same position on the board and the same cards. And in this case, I believe it's Toss (9 J). 🏰

Wordle 1,482 4/6

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Thursday 4:25 AM

Take the sure 8 minimum here and lead with the 3. After the A cut and a 16 before pegging, setting up nicely.

Thursday 4:43 AM

Putting this one in the "Don't overthink it" bin today.

Cribbage Pro Daily Scrimmage *Spoiler*
-Rough Day- Score: 119 to 121

Discards:
1. A-Q 0-0*
2. 4-5
3. K-K 26-32*
4. 5-J 32*-62
5. T-Q
6. 5-8
7. 6-7 90-111*
8. Q-K 114*-120

Wordle 1,482 6/6*

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Thursday 4:50 AM

I’ll stay with this double run

Thursday 5:12 AM

In the actual game the escape card would have come in handy. I'm still on the fence whether keeping an escape is worth the 'two point hit' at this position.

Thursday 5:30 AM

i’m keeping the double run. Lead with a 3.

Thursday 5:45 AM

I am playing offense here with my keep/discard. Read the submitter’s comments..Hard to process being ahead by 14 and then also starting with eight to then be dealing next from 100 and losing.

Thursday 8:19 AM

This should be 100% imo

Thursday 9:50 AM

Double run. The Double run is also the keep to consider for skunk possibilities.

Thursday 10:31 AM

At 92-78* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs____Crib____Total___W1 %___W2 %
A-2-3-3_____11.74+(-2.61)+(-5.26)=3.87____0.0____58.5
2-3-3-J______9.78+(-2.59)+(-4.54)=2.57____0.0____42.1
A-2-3-JD_____7.91+(-2.59)+(-4.29)=1.03____0.0____30.6
2-3-3-9______7.74+(-2.37)+(-4.67)=0.70____0.1____31.2

Defense______L1 %____L2 %
A-2-3-3________0.0____1.2
2-3-3-J________0.0____0.8
A-2-3-JD_______0.0____0.9
2-3-3-9________0.0____0.7

A-2-3-3 is best for expected averages by 1.30pts. and is very much best for Win % although very slightly the worst for Loss %s. So, I'll select the 9-J to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead a 2 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead____________Net Pegging Points____Win %
3____________________(-0.37)___________0.0
2____________________(-0.68)___________0.1
A____________________(-1.17)___________0.1

A 3 lead s best for Net Pegging Points but the 2 lead is very slightly better for Win %s.

Thursday 12:22 PM

Why do they show the cut on this webpage? Does it help to see how it turned out?