Today's results so far

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
66*-62  ?
41%
41%
14%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 190

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Goatman
979 votes

Joined: March 2017

   
Monday 3:14 AM
Wow 100%. Like the 2,3 to myself. Nice cut.
Andy (muesli64)
1617 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Monday 3:19 AM
Text book. 7-8 very suitable for crib and 2-3-4-6 pegs very nicely indeed. Apart from the possibility of a double run.
dec
4689 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:29 AM
I like 2-3 to the crib and even thou 2-3-4-6 is a very effective pegger you can either hold opponent down with this keep or play on and outpeg them with this one to. dec
james500
2315 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 3:51 AM
7-8 and 3-4 are the two options that immediately caught my eye, but I'd like to try 2-3. Seems I'm not alone.
Rosemarie44
1409 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 4:00 AM
I like holding 2-3-4-6 as this hand has more cuts for improvement. Only the cut of an ace does not add value.
Gougie00
4084 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 4:48 AM
I used to throw 7-8 from this arrangement. Statz convinced me to toss 2-3 instead. Seems counter intuitive, but the 2-3 always seems to find friends in the crib and the 7-8 does not.
horus93
573 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Monday 5:08 AM
I wasn't sure at all today. Liam has 7-8 better by 0.3 but maybe the magic 11 in this hand will bring them a little closer in actual averages with pegging considered. 2-3-4-6 would peg well against hands of low cards but pone is probably more likely to be holding x-x-x-5 or x-x-a-4 or something than four low cards. Then again 2-3-4-6 has a 5-trap.
Jazzselke
1338 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 5:12 AM
23, 34, or 78? Great puzzle, at 66 we need as many points as possible. 2678 is a possible 14 or 16, but 34 is no guarantee of points in the crib. 4 does not add a lot to 678, but it forms a Magic 11, and allows for 23 in the crib. Also a 67 for a trap of the 5 second series. And 2346 with 78 to throw obviously a viable option as well. Will ho with Option #2, 23 in the crib hard to pass up.
mfetchCT425
431 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Monday 5:28 AM
The 2-3 is tempting as always, but I don’t like the stray 4 in the keep of 4-6-7-8. I like the 2-3-4-6 where we keep the small card run intact and all cards in hand have synergy. 7-8 throw to crib is a top ten toss to own crib as well. This hand should peg well and has a 3-card magic 11 (2-3-6).
JQT
2642 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 5:52 AM
Just beyond half way through this particular game, as the Current Dealer at Hole 66, we find ourselves about Four Points Shy of our desired TARGET, which according to DeLynn Colvert's "Twenty-Six Theory" of Cribbage is otherwise known as Hole 70.

Meanwhile, when those average Ten Points of prospective scoring gets added to where Pone now sits at Hole 62, this likely places our opponent at a positionally advantageous place of around Hole 72, or about Two Holes BEYOND this same, hypothetical yet strategical Third Street TARGET.

Since the absolute value of our Four Point Deficit slightly exceeds the Two Point Surplus currently enjoyed by our Opponent, this calls for an ever-so-slight 'application of the brakes' by us during this deal, which can only be handled via the pegging when we are the Dealer.

Discards such as Toss (2 3), Toss (3 4), and Toss (7 8) all look reasonable from this arrangement of cards, but which of these makes the most sense from a positional perspective? This might get complicated.

The latter idea of Keep (2 3 4 6) and Toss (7 8) seems to be the most energetic of the three prospective discarding ideas (and so, let's 'stick a pin' in that idea for now...), but will this hand peg the most defensively? After an initial glance, it does seem to be a bit 'bunched up.'

At the other extreme, Keep (2 6 7 8) and Toss (3 4) seems to offer us the most flexibility for pegging defensively, with the Deuce as an 'out' card that may perhaps avoid us from getting involved in a back-and-forth RUN situation.

But even with a hand that starts out Two Points Higher than Keep (4 6 7 8), can Toss (3 4) 'make up for' the loss incurred by NOT performing that "Champion of (almost) All Discards" known as Toss (2 3)? Good Question!

Those aficionados of what I have collectively dubbed as the "Three Discard Cousins that Begin with Zero Points" which are otherwise known respectively as: Toss (3 4), Toss (6 7), and Toss (J Q) all should know by now that each one of these discards will frequently average attaining almost Five Points in our Crib.

This means that Toss (3 4), which will usually exceed the Crib Value of several High PAIRS such as Toss (T T), Toss (Q Q), and Toss (K K), is no real slouch! But truth be known, it cannot match either Toss (2 3) or Toss (7 8), even on its best day.

Thus, even though Toss (2 3) is indeed a Discard Champion, Toss (3 4) might 'fit the bill' a bit better defensively today. The key word here of course is "might," because as all Cribbage Players know, both Toss (2 3) and Toss (7 8) are very, very "MIGHTy" Discards! And "Might" might just prove to make "Right" today.

And therefore, I'm going to "Call an Audible" here; for the fact is, Keep (2 3 4 6) is such a powerful hand after so many Cuts, and it also pegs very well from EITHER side of the board, and most notably, Toss (7 8) is one stellar Dealer Discard.

And all of this "adds up" to the realization that sometimes, especially when we're just 'rounding the bases' from Second Street onto Third Street, that occasionally the best DEFENSE is a good OFFENSE! It actually looks better than just "good" here: In fact, Tony the Tiger might even beam brightly and say, "It looks GRRRRRREAT!"
dgergens
427 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Monday 8:44 AM
I had a feeling there would be 2 camps today. This is what I would do, based on my experience. I look forward to reading everyone else's sophisticated explanations to better understand why I did what I did.
JRCeagle78
757 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Monday 10:25 AM
I'll try an offensive strategy and toss 7-8. It is not as strong as 2-3 in my crib, but more cuts favor this arrangement. The cribbage gods decided I have to work a little harder for my points and gave me the Ace of hearts for a starter.

Like sands in the hourglass...so are the less than stellar starter cards.
Coeurdelion
4007 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 3:15 PM
Several choices - 2-6-7-8 (3-4), 2-3-4-6 (7-8) and 4-6-7-8 (2-3):

2-6-7-8: 7pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.96) = 12¾pts

2-3-4-6: 5pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 11½pts

4-6-7-8: 5pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 11¾pts

Potential:

2-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 10/11/14/16pts with 222, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 20 cuts.

2-3-4-6: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/11/12pts with 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 9999 = 20 cuts.

4-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 444, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 20 cuts.

Position:

We're 4pts short of positional hole but Pone is 14pts short of where they need to be so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

2-3-4-6 is an excellent pegging hand with a 3-card magic eleven so should peg best.

Summary:

2-6-7-8 starts with the most by 1/1¼pts but only has 24 cuts for improvement. 2-3-4-6 has a starting value 1¼pts less but has guaranteed improvement and should also peg very well. So I'll throw 7-8.
HalscribCLX
3783 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 3:18 PM
At 66*-62 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
2-3-4-6___8.50+1.54+6.41=16.45____40.8____51.2
4-6-7-8___7.54+1.37+6.86=15.77____38.5____51.8
2-6-7-8___9.46+1.17+4.39=15.02____36.2____50.2

Optimal_______L4 %____L5 %
2-3-4-6_______23.1____35.2
4-6-7-8_______21.1____34.5
2-6-7-8_______20.2____35.3

2-3-4-6 is best for expected averages 0.68pt and is also slightly best for Wion %s. It is not lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).
dec
4689 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:35 PM
looks like win in five to me. dec
Ras2829
3543 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 3:49 PM
At hole 66 I'm 3 holes short of 3rd Street CPZ (69-73); so my choice is for offense, with just a bit of caution. With opponent at hole 62 would play on the lead although will avoid pairing except for trey. Would par that as if tripled, play the six spot for 15-2, and will have scored 4 pegs. Think four pegs for me to be of more value than the six for opponent in that case. If an Ace/2 lead, will play the 6. If a four is led, will play the deuce. Only mid card lead I would touch is a 9, drop the 6 for 15-2 as many players won't pair it for count of 21. Often is safe for that reason. On any X-pointer, will play the six, forces a five off the play, advances the count to 26, and 2-3 combination scores 31-2 very often. It matters not, whether choosing offense, optimal or defense, the 2-3-4-6 will have the greatest combined value regardless of strategy choice. That's my take on it!
JCM
300 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Monday 4:20 PM
I'm late to the party. (Playing chess online!)

But I like to hold 2-3-4-6 together. It's a powerful combination. And (7 8) in our crib can be very good, too.

After the A-cut we have 6 pts in hand and an expected 6 in the crib. Total =12.
Score is 66*-62. We'd like to make 20+ pts this hand so as to be at 86+ next hand as pone.
This means 8+ pts of pegging wanted.
Very unlikely.
So peg defensively, so as to slow opp. down instead.