February 1, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
117*-113  ?
27%
13%
13%
12%
5%
5%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 251
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:14 AM
I will see if this three card eleven works. I would probably still fifteen a lot of leads here . dec
DoctorWitty
686 votes

Joined: January 2017

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:20 AM
This guarantees me 2 in the hand and 2 in the box so enough to get out, and also gives me lots of different choices during the pegging.
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:54 AM
This hand starts with 2 points and every cut improves hand to at least 2 points or more. We need to peg out and hope opponent doesn't have a really good hand.
Gougie00 says: "Warm snow" here in Massachusetts. No wind, and fairly mild but 2 inches of annoyance snow.
Rosemarie44 says: "Light fluffy snow" 15 degrees today here in Maine. Glad it is not a wintery mix.
duke62
1482 votes

Joined: September 2014

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:35 AM
Wow, 7 different answers after only 14 total votes! (OK, 5 choices without suit considerations, but still!) I see the nickels as a liability and I have the desire for an out card, or the closest thing I can find. Will try to peg out, but will also try to avoid giving up pegs, especially if 8 points doesn't appear likely for pone. It will be tougher to read their point total with the 10 cut since it can score with low, middle, or high cards so will proceed with caution.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:20 AM
A variety of cards if I decide to peg including a magic 11. As the opponent is 8 out they may have to hold a double-run of face cards. Will try to read their hand in conjunction with the cut card.
Guest says: I held the pair of 5's, as this worked for me last night at club. I was dealer and 6 out. I was playing a gold level, and didn't think it would work, but she lead a face, iI played a 5, she paired it and i tripped it. S :)
Jazzselke says: Excellent!
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:49 AM
I'm keeping "one of the each". I'll pair or play into run because my best shot is to peg out.
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:56 AM
Wow. I changed my mind on this about 20 times. Decided to keep the 5's with the 6, giving me the powerful 5-6 magic 11. Ace lead, I'll play a 5, 2 lead, I'll play the 6, 3 lead, I'll pair it, 4 lead, I'll play my 6, 5 lead, I'll pair it, 6 lead, either 3 or pair it - prob go aggressive and pair, 7 lead, I'll play the 3, 8 lead, I'll play the 3, 9 lead, I'll play the 6, 10-card lead, I'll play a 5. I've decided to be aggressive on the pegging and go for the win before pone has a chance to count.
Ras2829 says: Hi mfetchCT425: great response and didn't read prior to my posting. Of all these pegging choices, we're in agreement except I would play the 5 off a four lead. We're on the same page in all other aspects.
JQT says: Those comments made by both mfetchCT425 and RAS2829 today with regards to our need to assess the situation and turn AGGRESSIVE are very important. I maintain that it has to do with CONTROL. Close Endgame Battles in Cribbage often involve not only 'odds playing' and 'risk calculation' but ultimately, the art of CONTROL. I'll add a few more comments that I didn't see included today, but ones I've often made in similar scenarios in the past, so these might not sound new: When Pone requires "more than just a few" points in order to WIN, the Pegging Battle will often tend to "lean" in our favor as the Dealer, since the requirements of retaining Six or Seven or Eight Points can force Pone to retain an inferior pegging hand. Pone is never assured of even a single point during the pegging, and we all know that when we are Pone in a similar situation, it's very dangerous to hold a Weaker Hand with only a "promise" of an easier time during the pegging. Holding sufficient points today will frequently become a HUGE BURDEN for Pone during the pegging, and so this should (and it does) become a large factor over whether we shall decide to play DEFENSE or OFFENSE. Once we've made our Discard Decision, and once the Cut Card has been revealed, and then finally, once Pone gets ready to lead, we may STILL be in a bit of a quandary. Did Pone take a longer-than-usual amount of time to complete the discard? Is Pone hesitating over whether to lead "this" or "that" card? Players will often become extremely restless, and may even drop a card under such pressure: The more points Pone is holding, the "richer" the target environment often becomes during the pegging! As the Dealer, we are left to struggle over whether we can Peg Four as compared with whether our Opponent might have enough (combined Pegging and First Hand Show) to go out. If Pone indeed already has enough points to prevail, as the Dealer, we really have NO CONTROL over that. However, whether we can peg Four Holes or not as the Dealer: THIS is something over which we still have a LOT OF CONTROL. Would it hurt to lose in a close Pegging Battle if we found out later that Pone was only holding a Two-Point loser of a Hand? Sure it would, and it's a result that could occur. But it still would be no comparison to the sadness we would feel with the "missed opportunity" we would endure if we didn't give it our BEST effort.
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:24 AM
I've also kept "one of each", to cover as many leads as possible.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:34 AM
I like an assortment.
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:40 AM
I'm with mfetchCT425 today. We need to peg Four Holes (just slightly above AVERAGE) as the Dealer in order to win.

We can probably get the most pegging energy from our PAIR today, and as much as many players always seem to gravitate toward the "low" ranking cards, I believe it's more important that we push the Count up toward Thirty-One so that we can attempt to peg that (31-2).

This typically requires that our cards 'add up' to about fifteen or sixteen or more, so that almost forces me to Toss (A 3) here today.
JQT says: I found that Keep (3 5 5 6) did fairly well during some rigorous Endgame Battles I attempted earlier today. It's probably as good a time as any for me (just West of Midnight) to bring up a fairly common way to SQUANDER this type of an Endgame Battle: (117*-113) Pone Keep (A 4 Q K) Toss (2 6) vs Keep (3 5 5 6) Toss (A 3) Cut K and pegging might proceed merrily: 4 (4) 5 (9) Q (19) 6 (25) A (26) 5 (31=2) . K (10) 3 (13=1) and lo and behold, as Pone we've finished up the day just One Point Shy at (120-113)! But it all happened so quickly, and so maybe you didn't even "catch" the colossal BLUNDER! This is a mistake that a Master Level Player *probably* wouldn't make, but many, many very strong players will make, and they might not even realize that the next-to-last or penultimate pegging card had cost them the game! Notice what happens if we aren't so "greedy" and so we "switch" the order in which we 'play out' those last two cards, and so now the pegging proceeds: 4 (4) 5 (9) Q (19) 6 (25) A (26) 3! (29=1) . K (10) 5 (15=3) and wouldn't you know it, as Pone we've finished quite differently at (121-113)! In the first example, only if Pone were holding a 3 Card (and ONLY TWO REMAIN...) would we have been able to score more than One Point with our Last Card played. And therefore, we risk very little by playing our own 3 Card to bring the Count 'only' up to Twenty-Nine instead of Thirty-One. (We're essentially "betting" here that the Dealer may indeed hold any of FIFTEEN CARDS, as opposed to just TWO CARDS. And If the Dealer holds a Deuce or another Ace: we would lose that game ANYWAY.) But as we can see in the second example, if we play our 3 Card to bring the Count up to Twenty-Nine, now: if the Dealer has ANY Ten Cards ("X") or even a 5 Card remaining (that means FIFTEEN CARDS IN ALL...), we shall then score Three Points with our own 5 Card (either a 15-2 or a PAIR) to end the pegging, and end the game ... in OUR FAVOR!
JQT says: Let's tidy up a few minor little typos, about half way in: "and wouldn't you know it, as Pone we've finished quite differently" should of course read: "and wouldn't you know it, as the DEALER we've finished quite differently" and then toward the end, when I wrote "the DEALER" it should read "PONE" instead, in all three occurrences of the following text: "We're essentially 'betting' here that the Dealer may indeed hold any of FIFTEEN CARDS, as opposed to just TWO CARDS. And If the Dealer holds a Deuce or another Ace: we would lose that game ANYWAY.) But as we can see in the second example, if we play our 3 Card to bring the Count up to Twenty-Nine, now: if the Dealer has ANY Ten Cards..." Anyway, a few mistakes at this hour are very typical for our species. This puzzle, as well as my Pegging Battle example, illustrates very clearly what I said earlier in my reply to mfetchCT425 about Pone being forced to hold inferior pegging cards due to the score. In my endgame just described above, Pone was dealt (A 2 4 6 Q K) but felt virtually compelled to discard (2 6) in order to retain only Four Points. If the Deuce were retained, then Pone begins with perhaps only Two Points! Would you risk it? Would you risk holding the BEST pegging hand (A 2 4 6) to start with NOTHING AT ALL!? This is a great discarding puzzle, and very instructive for pegging as well.
smugly
387 votes

Joined: August 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:16 AM
Need to peg out -- most likely won't get chance to count melds. A not as useless as often thought, it seems. Kept 3-pair, as better chance use as pair at "go" time. Will peg 1 as dealer, so have to manufacture 3 more.
accoh157
254 votes

Joined: May 2013

 
 
 
Wednesday 8:33 AM
Since opponent is 8 out, I'm trying to peg out here. I hold 4 different cards either to get pairs or get into a run. They are far enough back that taking a run of 3 won't kill us, and we get the guaranteed go at the end.
Inushtuk1
1464 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 9:58 AM
I'm with mfetchCT425, and JQT today. Response to the leads similar to fetch's. Differences are a 5 on the 2 lead. Want to have as many different ranks in my hand after my first response, and at the same time if paired I'm out. On a 4 lead play my 5. Again if Dealer pairs it I'm out. If Dealer takes the 15-5 I'm out. Also the 5's could be liabilities. On a 7 lead again dump a 5. On an 8 lead especially dump the 5. If nothing else Pone will squirm if holding four mid cards.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Like your point on dropping a five on a deuce lead, keeping 5-6 intact since we need four pegs to win.
The_Bee_Mann
306 votes

Joined: November 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 11:20 AM
Put the 5s in the crib. All I want is pegging cards. Got to peg 4 points. I am guaranteed 1 point.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 12:24 PM
I kept the assortment, but limited it to 2 suits. This allows me to show a pseudo-flush if the opportunity presents itself .With the cut I have 4 points up two points down. Try to peg the extra 3 point is my best option.
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Wednesday 12:27 PM
I was tempted by the one of each A-3-5-6 but I think the lone Ace could be dangerous and therefore I would be forced to play it early. I think I'll go with 3-5-5-6.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 2:26 PM
There is about a one in five chance that we can limit non-dealer to 7 holes. Having said that, I will still choose an offensive pegging strategy. It is not likely that dealer can score 4 pegs with these cards. Of these six, the 3-5-5-6 offers the best chance to do that. With non-dealer 8 holes from winning, I will pair any card though would prefer to score 15-2 with a five on a X-lead. On an Ace lead, would play a five; 2 lead would prompt a response with the 6 offering chance for me to score run of three if 15-2 taken; would pair a trey lead; if 4 spot is the lead, would play a five, if five is led would pair; if a six spot appears would pair, on a 7 or 8 would play the trey keeping 5-5-6 for a later run; on a 9 lead will 15-2, and on any X-pointer will take the 15-2. That's my plan and RAS is sticking to it. Sadly, just ran a query on Cribbage Prof and the average potential pegs for this hand is 2.02 if choosing an offense pegging strategy. There are several better choices if choosing a defense pegging strategy. By the way there are several fine players in sanctioned cribbage play who would choose defense. The choices are often not right/wrong. The best choice for offense is much different than the correct choice for defense. Many people tell me that I am quite offensive!
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

Wednesday 4:00 PM
At 117*-113 playing an Optimal strategy (cautious offense) the Chances of Pegging Out are:

Optimal_____Peg Out %
3-3-5-6______56.6
A-3-5-6______56.5
3-5-5-6______54.8
A-3-3-5______48.5
A-3-5-5______48.0
A-5-5-6______47.6
3-3-5-5______41.1
A-3-3-6______38.6

Very little difference between 3-3-5-6 and A-3-5-6 with 3-5-5-6 close behind but as 3-3-5-6 is slightly best so I'll select the suited A-5 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
ken
200 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:31 PM
I pick my ace and six
spunlex
206 votes

Joined: January 2017

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:31 PM
It's all about pegging today and I much as I wanted to keep the ace, the elevens were too attractive here. Glad to see Hal agrees.