Monday 3:13 AM

I choose 7-7 we probably still need our best chance to count out this hand. Keeping the seven would be slightly better on the pegging but since we have one peg we now need to have our crib net at least four here. Defense off the lead. dec

Monday 3:22 AM

I like my chance to stay away with the mid-cards and the solid out. Opp is just a little too close to consider thinking outside the box on this one.

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121 to 107
The importance of the cut card. A different cut hand 3 positively or negatively makes this a very different game.

Wordle 1,584 3/6*

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Monday 3:50 AM

I thought about holding 3478 and wonder if that is really the best hold. Too far away to peg out. Non-dealer has a 50-50 shot of going out from 111, with an 8 hand and mustering up 2 points pegging. Play off to wherever is lead.

Monday 3:55 AM

Agree that we are too far away to peg out and dealer could go out only needing 10 points.

Monday 4:19 AM

Keeping lower cards for pegging to get closer to finish if pone doesn’t get there on this hand.

Monday 5:26 AM

It's probably too far down the list to see today, but I'd be interested in how the 4-8 discard performs for the pegging (3-3-7-7). I think we're too far away to try it, but with non-dealer only 10 out, I was looking defense first.

In the end I sent the 7s with the hope my 4-7 eleven and lower total pip count will keep me from getting forced into a run with a non-dealer 5.

Monday 5:27 AM

Maybe a little more wiggle room with these cards as opposed to 3 middle cards, but danger either way.

Monday 5:44 AM

I thought about:

X(10)-8(18)-X(28)-3(31/2).
X(10)-3(13)-5(18)-4(22/3+1).

but that hand plus the 10 cut gives my opponent four X cards and a 5, needing just 10 points. Even with a different cut, they're probably too close for that pegging sequence to work in my favour.

A good puzzle Goatman.

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1. 9-K
2. 5-J
3. 7-10
4. Q-Q
5. 8-J
6. 3-K
7. 8-Q
8. A-J
9. 2-7

Monday 6:05 AM

I don't think we see our third hand today. Even if we escape keeping pone from going out this hand, they/someone likely peg out next.

So it's our 2 hands to their 1, and we need a combination of known points, chances for more points, and pegging to do what we can to keep the pone backed up as much as possible.

I thought about holding the 3377 and 3478 as well, but we give up the upside we need to get our 13. I'll hold 6 in hand, 2 on crib and 1 go,.but I still need 4 more from the cut with chances everywhere.

Worst possible cut for us. We can't risk peg offensively enough today, but I will pair the 3 lead.

Monday 6:08 AM

What the Jazzman said. Wiggle room, and danger with any hold.

Monday 6:40 AM

Points in hand and points in crib.
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20th Oct 2025
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Monday 7:05 AM

Couple of reasons I like this keep:

1. We’ve got two combos in hand. If they play two Xs first we’ve got an 11 combo with 3-8 to secure 31/2 and we’re left with 3-4 to rack more points against them holding a 5. Defense is the first goal with this board position, but if we make a 4-point score with a run at the end of the play it can ensure victory this round with the crib count.

2. I’m not wanting to keep a bunch of mid cards 7s and 8. Too many easy score opportunities for them if their hand is playing mid cards.

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Monday 7:26 AM

Ditto

Monday 8:10 AM

I really studied this and strongly considered the 77 toss first but ultimately decided to go this way in hopes of a 4,6,7,8, or 9 cut. Might just be me but, I find it easier to hit to the middle cards than the little ones.

Monday 12:19 PM

At 108*-111 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total____Win %___Loss %
3-3-4-8____8.61+(-2.00)+5.50=12.11____49.3____50.7
4-7-7-8____8.35+(-2.00)+5.75=12.10____52.7____47.3
3-7-7-8____8.43+(-2.00)+4.64=11.07____51.0____49.0
3-3-4-7D___5.09+(-2.26)+6.22= 9.05____46.8____53.2

Although 3-3-4-8 is best for expected averages by the narrowest 0.01pt. over 4-7-7-8 the latter is appreciably highest for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So, I'll select the 3-3 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Monday 4:15 PM