Thursday 3:07 AM

Interesting dilemma. I need to get close enough without allowing the opponent to peg, and hope he does already have a 10+ point hand. Not an easy task to accomplish.

Thursday 3:14 AM

No. Statistics say otherwise. Doing so reduces the probability of improving the value of the hand and also reduces the value of the cards tossed in our crib.

Thursday 3:25 AM

The most defensive pegging should be employed, and we might do that with (3 3 7 8) or (3 6 7 8), but probably not with (6 7 8 Q). 🌋

A hand like (3 3 8 Q) may defend well, but we also want to move down the board as far as we can with Hand and Crib, because if we survive Pone's First Hand Show, we may still have a chance to WIN, or more likely, at least we can attempt to log a 'mess' of points! 🌞

Let's Toss (3 Q) today, which at least gives us a better 'out' card than a Queen during the pegging. After the 9 Card Cut, we now have Eight Points in our Hand, with prospects for a weak Crib. 🌵

Wordle 1,489 3/6

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Thursday 4:00 AM

No reason to overthink this one, sitting only +2 of the positional hole. After the favorable 9 cut we're at a minimum of 111 after this deal, it's full defense here. (And I don't share JQT's PTSD of pegging as dealer with 6-7-8-Q, but I'm sure he has stats somewhere to back it up)

Daily Cribbage Scrimmage *Spoiler*
Score: 121 to 87

Discards:
1. 6-T 0*-0
2. 2-4 16-6*
3. 3-7
4. 2-3
5. 9-J 61*-41
6. 5-8 83-59*
7. J-Q
8. 9h-T 107-78*
9. A-A 119*-87

Wordle 1,489 4/6*

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Thursday 4:19 AM

3-3-7-8 improves after any non-X cut, and includes an 8-3 eleven combo. Seven known points down to four is a sizable reduction though.

** Spoilers ahead **

1. *0-0, 6-J
2. 17-6, 2-4
3. *33-18, 3-7
4. 45-21*, 2-3! (maybe 3-8d?)
5. *62-39, 9-J, (maybe 5-J?)
6. 80-53*, 8-Jc (maybe 8-9 / 5-8?)
7. *91-67, J-Q (maybe 6-8?)
8. 102-72*, 9h-10h
9. *114-81, 3-8 (AAA389).

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
17th Jul 2025
🏆Score: 121 to 93
🌋SP: 1920
📅Streak: 31
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/551/3333658/1

A few of those hands didn't have obvious discards, I could've gone a different way quite a few times.

Thursday 4:24 AM

Straight forward for me today.....keep what I can muster and try to safely peg.

Thursday 4:31 AM

Need the crib more then an eleven count in hand. dec

Thursday 4:56 AM

We are in position, but definitely need to play defense here ... 3-3 is a terrible pitch for that. Want to keep some points and try to go out the next hand.

Thursday 5:02 AM

Going for known scoring in both hand and crib

Thursday 10:06 AM

Here are a few Endgame Battles, one WIN and one NEAR-WIN: 🎭

(98*-111) (3h 6s 7d 8d) (3s Qs) vs (5s Ts Js Jd) (Ac 2h) As
Pegging: J [10] 8! [18] T [28] 3 [31=2], J [10] 7 [17] 5 [22] 6 [28=4], (104*-111).
Pone 9, Dealer 7, Crib 12, (121*-120).

By holding the Trey as an "out" card, we not only manage to orchestrate a Magic Eleven for Thirty-One during the first volley of pegging, but this also allows us to set up the 5 Card Trap during the second volley of pegging, allowing us to 'blank' Pone by a Four-to-Zero margin, and in this instance, WIN the game! 🤩

Here, let's observe a brutal LOSS:

(98*-111) (3h 6s 7d 8d) (3s Qs) vs (Ad 2s 6c 9c) (Td Kh) Th
Pegging: 9 [9] 3! [12] 6 [18] 6!? [24=2] 2 [26] "go" A [27-1], 7 [7] 8 [15=3], (103*-112).
Pone 2, Dealer 5, Crib 2, (110*-114). We proceed to another deal! 🎠

(110-114*) (Ad 6s 8h 8c) (3c Td) vs (2c 6c 7d 8d) (Th Jh) Kd
Pegging: 8 [8] 8 [16=2] 8 [24-6] 7 [31=2], A [1] 2 [3] 6 [9] 6 [15=5], (116-121*).
Pone 6, Dealer 7, Crib 2, We never get First Hand Show, as Dealer Has Pegged Out! 🥴

Thursday 11:43 AM

At 98*-111 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total____Win %__Loss %
6-7-8-Q____7.24+(-2.09)+5.83=10.98____6.8____52.3
3H-6-7-8___7.50+(-2.02)+3.59= 9.07____1.8____55.1
3-3-7-8____6.37+(-1.98)+3.10= 7.49____0.1____50.9

6-7-8-Q is best for expected averages by 1.91pts. and is best for Win % and second lowest for Loss %s. So, I'll select 3-3 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Thursday 12:18 PM

I'm tossing the 78 and keeping 336Q. Even if we hold pone to a little bit of pegging, I suspect we need to go out on this hand, or at the very least on the next pegging. I don't see me keeping pone to 9 total points this hand. I don't think I get to see my next hand.

So, tossing 33 or Q3 won't do it. Just not enough points available. I'm tossing the 78 in the hopes of a 6 or 9 cut with the pone depositing some combination of 6789 in the crib.

Who knows? The 9 cut helps. 11 known points of the 23 I need.

Thursday 2:05 PM

🧐🧐🧐

Thursday 2:11 PM

Thursday 8:56 PM

Same, same

Friday 12:45 AM

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