Wednesday 3:05 AM

We are Pone, trailing by Eleven Holes on Fourth Street: Call the Cribbage Medics! At least the SKUNK has been averted. If this Cribbage Puzzle were a real human drama, while waiting to make what is likely to be our Final Discard of this game, someone would probably be performing CPR on our Pone Player! 🩺

The Dealer tends to average Sixteen Points by the time the Crib has been tallied, and yet our Opponent only needs a Dozen Points to 'clinch' this game, so we had better take our best shot with First Hand Show.

If we retain the 5 Card today in order to hold a Double Run, we could either hold (5 6 6 7) or (5 6 7 7), so let's examine these two ideas first.

While both of these hands can reach Sixteen Points, (5 6 7 7) is helped by every Cut Card, whereas (5 6 6 7) fails to get any help after Four Cuts (AAAA). And yet, (5 6 6 7) is the more versatile, Powerful Pegging Hand, and this has been discussed by some of us during a few recent, similar puzzles (refer back to puzzles on July 19, 2020, and yesterday, July 15, 2025, for those discussions).

Ref: (5 6 6 7) vs (5 6 7 7)
https://dailycribbagehand.org/show.php?date=2020-07-19
https://dailycribbagehand.org/show.php?date=2025-07-15

But if we want to "show our work" and provide a Full Proof today, let's see how these two very similar hands "map" mathematically:

* * * ☕ 🍪 💐 * * *

(98-109*) (5d 6d 6s 7h 7c Kc) Cut = Js, by lydia_47, Jul 16, 2025.

Idea 1) Dump the 7-K Idea: Keep (5d 6d 6s 7c) and Toss (7h Kc)

Expected Hand Average is 540 DIV 46 = 11.739
(minus) Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 4.270
Total is 11.739 (Crib is "Don't Care," so do not subtract it!)

05x16=080 - 555, 77 (Maximum Hand, 5 cuts = 16 Points)
02x15=030 - 66 (7 cuts >= 15 Points)
04x14=056 - 4444 (11 cuts >= 14 Points)
16x12=192 - 2222, 3333, 8888, 9999 (27 cuts >= 12 Points)
15x10=150 - TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKK (42 cuts >= 10 Points)
04x08=032 - AAAA (Minimum Hand, 4 Cuts = 8 Points)
46 ___ 540

* * * ☕ 🍪 💐 * * *

Idea 2) Dump the 6-K Idea: Keep (5d 6d 7h 7c) and Toss (6s Kc)

Expected Hand Average is 540 DIV 46 = 11.739
(minus) Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 4.140
Total is 11.739 (Crib is "Don't Care," so do not subtract it!)

05x16=080 - 555, 66 (Maximum Hand, 5 cuts = 16 Points)
02x15=030 - 77 (7 cuts >= 15 Points)
04x14=056 - 8888 (11 cuts >= 14 Points)
12x12=144 - 2222, 3333, 4444 (23 cuts >= 12 Points)
23x10=230 - AAAA, 9999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKK (Minimum Hand, 23 Cuts = 10 Points)
46 ___ 540

* * * ☕ 🍪 💐 * * *

Both of these ideas produce almost identical results, but while the (5 6 7 7) does indeed get help after any cut, it also has Twenty-Three Cut Cards that only boost it to Ten Points! Meanwhile, (5 6 6 7) gets to reach Ten Points or more with Forty-Two Cuts!

Look at the hand mappings above, and especially look at the number of cuts that yield a Dozen Points or more for each, and you'll see further proof of why (5 6 6 7) is the superior choice. Specifically, (5 6 6 7) can reach a Dozen Points or more after Twenty-Seven Cut Cards, while (5 6 7 7) can only reach a Dozen Points or more after Twenty-Three Cut Cards.

Finally, we see that for either Double Run Idea, we only have Five Cuts that will yield Sixteen Points, and this is the Maximum amount we can obtain. Sixteen Points, however, will only get us to Hole 114, so even if we do obtain that elusive 5, 6, or 7 Card Cut, as the case may be, which can only occur 5/46 equals 0.109 or about 11% of the time, we would still need to peg a whopping Seven Holes as Pone, and that simply is never going to happen. Luckily, in this puzzle by lydia_47, we do have Idea 3, one more way we might WIN:

* * * ☕ 🍪 💐 * * *

Idea 3) Dump the 5-K Idea: Keep (6d 6s 7h 7c) and Toss (5d Kc)

Expected Hand Average is 364 DIV 46 = 7.913
(minus) Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 7.250
Total is 7.913 (Crib is "Don't Care," so do not subtract it!)

04x20=080 - 8888 (Maximum Hand, 4 cuts = 20 Points)
03x16=048 - 555 (7 cuts >= 16 Points)
04x12=048 - 2222 (11 cuts >= 12 Points)
08x08=064 - 66, 77, 9999 (19 cuts >= 8 Points)
08x06=048 - AAAA, 3333 (27 cuts >= 6 Points)
19x04=076 - 4444, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKK (Minimum Hand, 19 Cuts = 4 Points)
46 ___ 364

* * * ☕ 🍪 💐 * * *

The overall Expected Average of this idea is much lower than the previous two ideas, but what's most important here is that we now have Seven Cuts that yield Sixteen Points or more, which is already a 40% improvement over the previous two ideas, which only had Five Cuts that did this. But more importantly, we now have Four Cuts (8888) that yield Twenty Points, so if we can get an 8 Card Cut, and this shall indeed occur 4/46 equals 0.087 or about 9% of the time, we would then only need to peg Three Holes as Pone in order to WIN!

Let's Toss (5 K) today, and give ourselves that chance to prevail. After the Jack Cut, our Opponent gets "Two for His Heels," and we get to lead our 7 Card and sulk, although it's fun to imagine an 8 Card Cut smiling up at us, especially if the Dealer were to score on our Lead Card, as that's all we would have needed in order to WIN. 🌺

Wednesday 3:06 AM

Not much choice but to go for the eight cut.

Wednesday 3:13 AM

Looks like we'll be short regardless of what the starter is. Trying it this way.

Wednesday 3:27 AM

Decided on this hold and it's not looking so good no matter what I choose.

Wednesday 4:22 AM

4 cuts for 20. Last train outta dodge. Not gonna get there any other way. Alternatives max out at 16 with only 5 cuts available to get there, leaving us 7 to peg, which is too much to consider the alternative.

Daily Cribbage Scrimmage *Spoiler*
Score: 117 to 121
A loss today, but given how it went, there was only 1 pegging sequence that didn't go almost perfect.

Discards
1. A-9
2. 7-8
3. Q-K
4. A-8
5. A-9 63-51* (Submitted to DCH)
6. A-T
7. 3-Q 93-94*
8. 7-Q 102*-111

Wordle 1,488 5/6*

⬜🟨⬜⬜🟨
⬜⬜⬜🟨🟨
🟨🟩⬜⬜🟩
🟩🟩🟩⬜🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Wednesday 4:23 AM

Hopefully K6 is a, "spanner in the works". Too little, too late though perhaps.

** spoiler **

Cribbage Pro had a big hand in deal 8 as Pone. A 108 to 121 loss today. I mishandled deal 5, by discarding Qh-9 from A-3-8-9-Q-Q, but it wouldn't have mattered in the end.

Wordle 1,488 5/6

⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
⬛⬛🟨🟨🟩
🟩🟩⬛⬛🟩
🟩🟩⬛⬛🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Wednesday 4:24 AM

Not much of a hold. Crib flush possibility and maybe a kabangi with an 8 cut.

Wednesday 5:01 AM

Eleven points needed in three counts. The patron saint of lost cribbage causes is needed here. Spread be darned. dec

Wednesday 6:01 AM

Keeping this double run. 6677 may give us a slim shot with a long shot cut, but don’t see the need to give dealer an extra boost of K5 since they may not have enough in hand anyway. In other words trying to to hang on to live another day…or at least hand.

Wednesday 6:21 AM

Got zapped again in CribPro with a Jack cut. Opponent didn't even have to count his crib, to which I discarded the 6-K.

Wednesday 7:01 AM

Look, we need 23 points here on this hand or we're done. Damn the torpedoes. Fire away

I don't see any other hand combination that gets me even close. I need a triple run and some 15s, so let's go 8!

Jack. Good game.

Wednesday 7:42 AM

Ever hear of a 2-2 or a blankedy-blank for the dealer? Swing & a miss if you went for the 2 or 8 cut..... whereas this hold still has some life.

Wednesday 2:13 PM

At 98-109* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Our
Offensse___Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total______Win %___Loss %
5-6-6-7C____11.74+1.67+(-3.77)=9.64_______2.0_____68.4
5-6-7-7_____11.74+1.46+(-3.67)=9.53_______0.5_____67.3
5-6-7-K*_____7.72+1.67+(-5.44)=3.95_______0.1_____75.5
5-6-6-K______6.87+1.67+(-6.38)=1.86_______0.0_____79.5
6-6-7-7______7.91+1.30+(-7.39)=1.82_______3.0_____86.5

* unsuited discard

5-6-6-7C is best for expected averages by 0.11pt. and although 6-6-7-7 is best for Win %s, 5-6-6-7C has a 2% chance of Winning and the second lowest chance of Losing so I'll select 7H-K to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead a 6 and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Points______Loss %
6___________________2.01______________67.1
7___________________1.59______________68.6
5___________________1.01______________70.5