June 14, 2025
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Total votes: 274 |
Penguin50 | Play offence or defence? |
Joined: March 2016 (2222 votes) Saturday 3:11 AM
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Joined: June 2013 (4328 votes) Saturday 3:14 AM
Twelve points guarantees I'll be dealing from hole 98 in the next hand. Hopefully they'll still be behind me when we get there.
Wordle 1,456 3/6 β¬π¨π¨β¬β¬ π©β¬π©β¬π¨ π©π©π©π©π© |
Joined: April 2008 (6838 votes) Saturday 3:18 AM
take twelve and the chances they get thirty or more. Obvious choice for me. dec |
Joined: May 2021 (246 votes) Saturday 3:20 AM
We're cut-proof to our positional hole, and they've got an uphill climb from -19. I don't see the need to overthink this today.
Wordle 1,456 4/6 β¬π¨β¬β¬π© β¬β¬π©β¬π© π¨β¬π©β¬π© π©π©π©π©π© |
Joined: October 2008 (4497 votes) Saturday 3:30 AM
It's much better to hold more points and give away fewer points. And the best DEFENSE is sometimes a good OFFENSE. If we Toss (6 J), that would maybe reduce the Crib Value by Two Points at the MOST, but it would also chop our starting Hand down from a Dozen Points to a mere Six Points, and we cannot DEFEND by doing this much harm to our potential Hand.
Let's Toss (6 7) and bring our Jacks to the Parade! π π π After the Ace of Hearts Cut, we now have Thirteen Points, and we'll proudly lead a Jack. Additionally, I cannot imagine a place where I might consider Toss (J J), even at a score of say (106-115*), because while (5 5 6 7) has Eight Cuts (55, 666, 777) that would yield Fifteen Points or more, but (5 5 J J) has TWICE AS MANY or Sixteen Cuts (55, TTTT, JJ, QQQQ, KKKK) that yield Sixteen Points or more! Unless you know for certain that a 6 Card or 7 Card will be the Cut Card, it's ALWAYS BEST to Toss (6 7). ππ π»π»π» πΉπͺ Wordle 1,456 3/6 π¨π¨β¬β¬β¬ β¬π¨β¬π©π© π©π©π©π©π© Eolus619 says: JQT..although we are playing as n/der, perhaps it is still a good place to remind less experienced players about your dealer discard βcousinsβ which can start with zero and earn 5+ in crib.. 3/4..6/7..J/Q..Pone sending them is the equivalent of dealer sending them..today it happens it is still the best discard choice and one would hope 6/7 does not turn into 5+. |
Joined: March 2008 (6152 votes) Saturday 4:15 AM
The rule is to never break up a double-run. This is one of the exceptions. I'll hold my sure 12 points. |
Joined: February 2009 (1680 votes) Saturday 4:21 AM
This should be close to 90 percent-keep the max points to get as far down 4th street as possible for your next deal-if the opponent goes 44 points in 3 counts with your 67 discard shake his hand and wish him well |
Joined: April 2011 (4476 votes) Saturday 4:24 AM
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Joined: July 2017 (667 votes) Saturday 5:08 AM
LOL!!!!!!!! My favorite toss to the pones crib! Inushtuk1 says: 7 out of every 8 tries you get away with it I remember. JQT says: My favorite Pone Discard in Cribbage is Toss (2 3) . . . because . . . just imagine how good my HAND MUST BE . . . (5 5 5 5), (4 5 6 6), (7 7 7 8) . . . if I am willing to give away a Deuce and a Trey! π π π₯ Djgoat says: Ditto! |
Joined: March 2009 (2856 votes) Saturday 5:08 AM
Echos reverberating... |
Joined: August 2023 (138 votes) Saturday 5:09 AM
Breaking the donβt break a double run rule. |
Joined: June 2020 (1742 votes) Saturday 5:52 AM
ALWAYS a good idea to read Rob Mβs comments..today is no exception ..and Jazzβs increasingly famous cribbage theorem applies today..keeping a double run is the best idea until it isnβt. |
Joined: May 2024 (421 votes) Saturday 6:35 AM
Ditto! |
Joined: July 2016 (1820 votes) Saturday 7:20 AM
Ditto; besides, who wants to lead from 5-5-6-7? One of those 5's always ends up in a trap play. |
Joined: January 2024 (486 votes) Saturday 7:40 AM
We are in good position if we keep our 12-meld. So is Dealer. Both the 6-7 and J-J pitches might help Dealer catch us, but we retain the advantage with deal in hand. |
Joined: July 2020 (1017 votes) Saturday 7:47 AM
Too many points to throw away, IMO. |
Joined: June 2024 (25 votes) Saturday 7:54 AM
I tossed 6/7 in this game and opponent got a 24 point crib on the way to a comeback win. Eolus619 says: hello Penguin50β¦welcome..encourage you to keep posting ..24 point cribs..it certainly can happen π₯ Penguin50 says: Thanks for response. It just goes to show anything can happen in a game. JQT says: Cribbage is a probabilistic endeavor, so the Correct Discard is "Correct" even if something "bad" may occasionally happen. If we determine a specific discard idea is indeed best at a given score, such as Toss (6 7) in this puzzle today, then it's best to make that same discard the next time we encounter that same score and those same cards. The program shows that Toss (J J), for example, will cost you 2.44 Points (a HUGE amount, as we often debate TENTHS of a point!) each time in your Expected Average, and thus there is NEVER a time when switching your idea on a whim will be correct. Players who "switch" to another discard idea will either be immediately disappointed when their inferior choice fails to yield any positive results (and this will be the better of two possible outcomes!), or; they will be temporarily rewarded when their inferior choice does have a momentary payoff due to the random nature of the Cut Card, but this is the worse of the two possible outcomes. It's worse because mathematically, this player will do worse in the long run by not picking the statistically-higher choice(s), and yet since a temporary reward does and will occasionally and occur, they are now being rewarded for "guessing" or straying from making a statistically-better choice, and in addition to a lower payoff amount, this will almost always cause such a player to take more chances in the future, thus further diminishing their net positive results. Being "rewarded" momentarily for inferior decisions firmly places such players on a path of luck and speculation, and begins to erode the logical and mathematical skill element from their game. πͺ |
Joined: December 2023 (128 votes) Saturday 9:49 AM
Ditto!
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Joined: February 2008 (5687 votes) Saturday 10:20 AM
At 86-77* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Our Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total___W2 %____W3 % 5-5-J-J____14.30+1.15+(-5.75)=9.70____29.2____82.4 5-5-6-7____12.22+1.20+(-6.15)=7.26____20.3____74.6 5-5-6-JH____9.46+1.30+(-4.21)=6.55____11.7____61.2 Offense______L2 %____L3 % 5-5-J-J_______1.6_____4.3 5-5-6-7_______1.5_____7.8 5-5-6-JH______0.6____10.1 5-5-J-J is best for expected averages by 2.44pts and is very much best for Win %s and lower for Loss %s. So I'll select the 6-7 to discard. After the A cut I'll lead a J and play Defense: Lead________Dealer's Pegging Points J___________________(-2.26) 5___________________(-3.18) |
Joined: August 2009 (2338 votes) Saturday 2:06 PM
Elementary Watson. |