Wednesday 3:03 AM

Wednesday 3:35 AM

Try a King and a six then. dec

Wednesday 3:38 AM

Might be early morning brain fog. I'll usually throw K-6 every time, but today we're in no mans land (Directly between positional holes) for both us and our opp. I think our best path to winning this game is hitting this cut for 14, and pegging a couple to get us into the low 60s where we can play aggressively and potentially make up the difference in subsequent hands.

Today we missed that perfect cut leaving us with a measly 4 points. Only 1 way to win from here, full stop. Lead the 6C (And for the record, I should've kept the 10C over 10H)

Wordle 1,453 3/6

⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜
⬜⬜🟩🟨🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Good wordle day for me today. Might direct the daily dress code.

Wednesday 4:45 AM

I'll choose the King with the red 6.

Listed as leading to the 4/91 lowest crib score on average.

Hands , Comp , Number
(T-K) , 3.88 , (#01)
(9-K) , 4.03 , (#02)
(9-Q) , 4.11 , (#03)
(6-K) , 4.14 , (#04)
(8-K) , 4.20 , (#05)
(6-Q) , 4.22 , (#06)
(7-K) , 4.27 , (#07)
(A-K) , 4.30 , (#08)
(6-T) , 4.31 , (#09)
(7-T) , 4.31 , (#10)

Connections
Puzzle #731
🟨🟨🟨🟨
🟩🟦🟦🟦
🟦🟦🟦🟦
🟪🟪🟪🟪
🟩🟩🟩🟩
Something different today.

Wednesday 5:10 AM

I don’t like giving away two sixes when you can get the same net score (6 = 8 - 2) by giving a six and a king.

Wednesday 5:13 AM

Ditto

Wednesday 5:20 AM

When it comes to cribbage “ evidence” ,our Hall of Famer Ras, has given us multiple treasures of data. One is his list of the 46 lowest average balk discards.

https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen7.asp

Wednesday 6:04 AM

Best combination of offense and defense considering the relative positions.

Wednesday 6:24 AM

Keeping 8 points only to give 2 back in crib doesn’t work for me given board board position. Sending the K6 away.

Wednesday 6:43 AM

Giving away 2 to keep 2 is not worth it in this case.

Wednesday 7:00 AM

In some 'Defensive Stand' situations, Toss (6 K) is about as good as it gets, and with a Crib Value of about 4.14 Points (Schell), only Toss (T K) and Toss (9 K) can consistently do better at just below Four Points! Toss (6 K) produces Cribs that are worth Two Points or less 41.4% of the time, and result in Cribs that reach Eight Points or more just 13.1% of the time 👘 (RAS: http://www.cribbageforum.com/OppCrib.htm).

Toss (6 K) is a VERY Defensive Discard, one of the best, so when we are trailing as Pone, we should be delighted that we were dealt a few such defensive cards. In fact, with another 6 Card in our mitts, the Negative Delta Queen that does her very best to watch over us when we're trailing by Ten Points or more in any Cribbage Game will make sure that Toss (6 K) is worth even less than usual, and Rex Crib gauges it at a value of about 3.91 Points. We 'Done Well' as the short-order cook says, for doing absolutely nothing!

While we usually debate different discard ideas that range within tenths of a point of one another, no other Discard Choice here even comes close to Toss (6 K) today, not by over a Full Point, making this the only idea that ends up getting any of our consideration. 🪁

If we were in a more Offensive Position at say (112-116*), we would definitely hold Eight Points with (5 T T K), and Toss (6 6) with no compunctions; but at the given score of (45-55*), it makes absolutely no sense to hold an additional Two Points in our Hand, only to Toss (6 6), with a Crib Value of 7.08 Points, a Crib that is nearly Three Points greater than the Crib Value of Toss (6 K), which again is 4.14 Points (Schell, all values). 🥗

Let's Toss (6d K) today, and after the Deuce Cut, we still find ourselves holding just Six Points. Let's lead our Big, Bold Ten "T" of Clubs. 🌺

Wordle 1,453 3/6 🍹

⬛🟩🟩⬛⬛
⬛⬛🟨⬛⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Wednesday 7:05 AM

K-6 just seems logical with these few options

Wednesday 9:48 AM

Too early in the game for the desperation 6-6 pitch and you need to slow Dealer down, so toss 6-K (or T-K, if you are feeling lucky).

Wednesday 11:28 AM

At 45-55* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Our
Offense_____Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W5 %___W6 %
5-6-10-10____8.09+1.72+(-3.91)=5.90____7.7____8.1
5-6-6-10_____7.00+1.24+(-3.72)=4.52____6.7____7.2
5-6-10-K_____6.13+1.83+(-4.01)=3.95____5.6____6.6
5-10-10-K____9.39+1.30+(-6.79)=3.90____9.3____6.0

Offense________L5 %____L6 %
5-6-10-10_______45.2____73.9
5-6-6-10________45.1____74.3
5-6-10-K________45.6____75.4
5-10-10-K_______55.1____79.0

5-6-10-10 is best for expected averages by 1.38pt. and is very slightly best for Win %s over 5-10-10-K and lowest for Loss %s. So, I'll a 6-K to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead a 10 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Points
10___________________1.93
5____________________1.13
6____________________0.87

Wednesday 2:55 PM

Uh-oh.....Hal & me are....gulp....aligned on this one?

Wednesday 4:36 PM

I almost threw the 6s, but then I considered for a moment: what would JQT do with this hand? :)

Wednesday 5:26 PM

Late to the party and its not often the correct answer is already posted. Usually its me as the first to respond and only idiot with the wrong answer.