April 27, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
33*-40  ?
47%
42%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 235
james500
3935 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:05 AM
5-5 for me.
MA2906Bptrs
206 votes

Joined: October 2023
 
 
 
Saturday 3:15 AM
Double nickels
sharp21
190 votes

Joined: January 2010
 
 
 
Saturday 3:30 AM
I never know what to do with hands like this. 5's and 6's give a potential 24 so went with that
dec
6373 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:45 AM
Sixteen face cards where are you art thou? A six cut here would be a dozen. Maybe twelve could be in the crib? dec
Annabella says: I always learn something from your posts. I picked this too, but wasn’t completely sure why. Read yours- it’s like a double espresso- quick and does the job! Thank you, and all, who share their knowledge.
mrob2199
1445 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 4:13 AM
Too early here for the home run swing of 5566
Eolus619 says: Congrats to Rob on a top four finish in the Deadwood main playoffs.!
ZulwarnGames says: Congrats Rob!
scottcrib says: Bravo!
Annabella says: W O W! Congrats.
zeke76
1408 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 4:30 AM
Not going to overthink double nickel to my crib.
Samgash
405 votes

Joined: November 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 4:33 AM
Yuck! Now let’s hope for KT in the crib!
Gougie00
5742 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:37 AM
anything but an 8 cut. I went for the Grand Slam.
ZulwarnGames
142 votes

Joined: November 2022
 
 
 
Saturday 6:30 AM
Trying to keep the most points. 3-6-6 is two, pair is four. Double fives should be at least 4, right? I believe the average is closer to 9 (8.79 on Schell, just looked it up). Seems like the smart choice.

(please don't cut a 4. please don't cut a 4. please don't cut a 4.)
Inushtuk1
1497 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 7:43 AM
On Defense at this score I will play it this way. On offense I would have tossed (A-3).
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Or as n/d with these cards or similar, it would likely be 100% to hold 5-5-6-6.
Inushtuk1 says: Indubitably young man.
kal79
26 votes

Joined: April 2024
 
 
 
Saturday 8:01 AM
Selling the 3-6-6 15 for a swing at a 24 pointer, though I strongly considered the 5-5 throw like many of you, and winced a bit seeing the 10 cut. 5-5 could lead to a monster crib.

One positive of keeping 5-5-6-6 that’s NOT the potential for 24 is the magic 11. If the pone leads X, I’m taking the 15 for 2 and hoping they lead another X. We peg 8 if our opponent only kept X cards. This of course isn’t a guarantee, but it gives this hand an edge in pegging when comparing to A-3-6-6.

So yes, after the cut, I’m missing out on a double digit crib, barring an opponent A-2 or similar toss. However, as the dealer, it’s within reason we can peg our way out of our 7 point deficit. Hoping for a 2 from our opponent in the crib to complete a high upside deal.
MiketheExpert
1134 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 8:13 AM
I'm behind and could use a monster hand....(5 5) in the crib should give us the highest hand+crib expected value...But having 2 magic-11's with a chance at a 24-pt hand feels right to me...With the X-card cut, I'm not sure if I'm happy I kept it this way or not.....
MiketheExpert says: The only cut in which I'd immediately regret this decision is with the 6, and I already have 2 of them in my hand.
Sgt Pegger
288 votes

Joined: July 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 9:24 AM
Caution to wind! We are still on the "up" side of the board and slightly behind. A 4 or a 7 would be real "attention getter" for the pone in this position. I seriously considered tossing the 5's but that is not always the best show in town so... Take a chance and see how much real-estate I can grab here.
HaydenSr
1474 votes

Joined: April 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 12:36 PM
Play the points,and averages. Not chances of cut
Coeurdelion
5606 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 1:28 PM
A-3-6-6: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 55, 66, 8888, 9999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 8/9/12pts with 2222, 333, 55, 66, 8888, 9999 = 19 cuts.

Position:

Pone only needs 4pts to reach 2nd street positional hole so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think A-3-5-6 will probably peg best and it has a magic eleven.

Summary:

A-3-6-6 is best for starting value by 4¼pts over A-3-5-6 and although A-3-6-6 doesn't have the most cuts for improvement it still has 19 cuts for 8-12pts so I don't think the other hands will catch up the 4¼pts. Therefore I'll throw the 5-5 to my box.
HalscribCLX
5329 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 1:28 PM
At 33*-40 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
A-3-6-6____6.04+2.80+8.66=17.50____17.9____20.3
3-5D-6-6___7.74+5.39+5.39=16.67____16.2____18.9
5-5-6-6____9.09+3.20+4.27=16.56____19.2____20.4
A-3-5D-6___5.39+3.98+6.54=15.91____13.4____15.4

Offense_______L6 %____L7 %
A-3-6-6________34.8____56.8
3-5D-6-6_______34.8____57.7
5-5-6-6________33.6____55.1
A-3-5D-6_______37.6____62.0

A-3-6-6 is best for expected averages by 0.83pt. and although 5-5-6-6 is best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s as it's still early in the game I'll select the 5-5 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Inushtuk1 says: Wow! +5.39 pegs with 3-5-6-6. Perhaps something to think about in an end game scenario wher Dealer need to peg out.
MiketheExpert says: It must be a typo...Don't think there is a 4-pt combo which will average that many pegs on offense.
MiketheExpert says: 4 cards I should say.
MiketheExpert says: Not too surprised to see the W/L% as highest with keeping the 5-5-6-6 here. It is one of those situations given the score it seems there is more to gain with a "hit" here than there is to lose in case of a miss. I will earn 8 pegs in any case if pone has kept any hand of XXXX here.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1 & MiketheExpert: The 5.39 for pegs with 3-5-6-6 is an obvious typo. Right next to that is the crib value of 5.39. Looks like a case where crib value was keyed twice.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks guys.
HalscribCLX says: Erratum: Pegs for 3-5-6-6 should be +3.54pts. Apologies for inept human operator.
wasa
3029 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Saturday 3:35 PM
Late to the game, but the only pair I like putting in my crib is 5-5
Ras2829 says: Hi wasa: The 5-5 stands alone at 1/91 as a pair unsurpassed. The 3-3 is no slouch though and comes in at #10. Many like 7-7 although that pair is three spots down the list from the treys at 13/91. The 5-5 scores a mere two points 2.4%; 3-3 does so 21.272%, and 7-7 scores two points 22.011%. From there the pairs deteriorate with an increasing number of two-point cribs.
Ras2829
5166 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:55 PM
Generally, if dealer is holding a pair of fives for two points in hand, that powerful pair ought to be in crib where they average close to 9 points (8.876 on 500 discards to own crib).Exceptions would be hands that look like A-4-5-5-7-8, 2-3-5-5-7-8, or similar. If these six cards were picked up by non-dealer, holding 5-5-6-6 would be correct most everywhere on the board. As dealer it's 5-5 to crib except in end-game scenarios where one of the fives might be retained for pegs (as in A-3-5-6).
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. I imagine with A-4-5-5-7 Dealer tosses (7-8), and Pone tosses(A-8) on both offense, and defense. With the second example the same thing; Dealer tosses (7-8), and Pone tosses wide.