April 26, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by fentesk
109-100*  ?
32%
31%
10%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
2%
1%
Total votes: 287
fenteskFinish line is in sight, now we need to send dealer two cards and try to cross it. Which two?
MA2906Bptrs
206 votes

Joined: October 2023
 
 
 
Friday 3:08 AM
I’m giving the pair of Qs
sharp21
190 votes

Joined: January 2010
 
 
 
Friday 3:34 AM
Absolutely no WAY I'm giving any points to Jakes crib. Too close to the end and they count first next hand. That means 2-3 and Q-Q discards are out.

The only draw that doesn't help this hand is a 9 so I'm reasonably looking at 9 to 12 points, taking me to close to the end. Peg smart and I can win this thing.

Lead the 4.
Chessops says: Giving Q-Q is aggressive and gains more points with the straight. The straight has more chances of getting help from the starter card than giving a single queen with 2.
sharp21 says: How does it gain more points? I'm not seeing it. 2-3-4-5 starts with 4pts, plus gives up a pair in the crib. Best case draw is a 5 resulting in 12 points in the hand. Same as my best case except I didn't give up 2pts off the hop.
MiketheExpert says: All X-card cuts give the hand 8 points, any matching cut from 3 to 5 gives you enough points to count out, and all cuts here guarantee improvement. If some people more confident than myself of pegging 3-4 pts, seems like a good gamble if you are ultimately trying to prevent dealer from counting their hand :). I tend to be more pessimistic when it comes to pegging, and so I'd rather use the next deal as an option to try and peg out if need be. No need for me to offer any help with dealer 21 pegs out.
MiketheExpert says: 2-3 discard is a definite no-no in this situation.
zeke76
1408 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Friday 4:01 AM
I’d like to get out or with 2 on our count. Not letting this get to them counting first next hand. Peg aggressively.
james500
3935 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 4:01 AM
I'd like to try Q4.

I hold another Q and a 5, so the Q is denied two friends. I hold a 3 and that 5, so the 4 is denied two friends.

Lead the 2 from the 2-3 combo, since I don't mind if they reply with a 5.
Ras2829
5166 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 4:04 AM
With dealer needing 21 points to win on this deal, am choosing offense to include the pegging. Have two chances to win (pegs and first count on this hand and with dealer advantage on pegging next? Prefer to end game on this deal. The only discard that I considered was 2-Q.
Ras2829 says: Since have chosen offense, will lead the Queen, keeping 3-4-5 intact. Leading the sleeper card hides the true identity of the remaining cards. With n/d needing 12 to win the game, dealer is not going to touch any opening lead - more likely to catch a small card for pairs or run in later pegging. Many assume a X-point lead indicates the absence of a small card in hand; so, holding 3-4-5 in sequence is very good strategy most of the time. Will not split the lower cards; if dealer does not peg on Queen lead, will drop the 5 next card. These four cards provide for the greatest combined value (pegs, hand score, less crib acore).
Ras2829 says: BTW Q-Q discard to dealer crib is not so good because of frequent dealer J-Q and 10-J discards with an average of 5.364. Holding 2-3-4-5 certainly has the highest possible hand value among these six cards and it also garners more pegs. Once subtracting for the crib holding 3-4-5-Q has the edge. Have no idea what the difference in win/loss % are and that might be all that matters. Certainly not critical of those choosing 2-3-4-5; will defer to HalscribCLX as to win/loss %.
Gougie00
5742 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 4:26 AM
Hedging like a coward. The dealer is 21 out, and just need to get close enough to peg out next deal. Since I know where 3 Queens are, and I want to peg, lead the Queeen.
mrob2199
1445 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 5:12 AM
Full speed ahead here-pretty good chance we score at least 8 to get us to 117 BEFORE pegging commences-dealer needs 21 but he can’t afford to be too aggressive in his pegging with us so close to 121- and remember we don’t have to worry about a 5 cut here since it would put us out before any potential crib damage would occur
Eolus619 says: hello Rob..Congrats on your 36 points earned ( HQ?) in the Thursday 22 game Deadwood main..i contributed two to that total.. and Fyi..CHODers..farleysma, wendy and Jazz also in the playoffs..maybe more not sure ..Sally just missed by one point ( i think?) of advancing…
RubyTuesday
920 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Friday 5:13 AM
2 Q to my opponent. Leaves me with an OK hand and doesn’t do anything helpful (hopefully) to his crib.
MiketheExpert
1134 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Friday 5:43 AM
The chances are good to either get out or within range to peg and count out on the next deal if we don't here. If we are playing Grass roots and spread score could be a deciding factor, I suppose it is time to consider tossing the (Q Q) and aggressively trying to count out here prior to dealer counting their hand. As always, for me at CHOD the goal is just to try and win if possible. Thus the (2 Q) defensive crib throw goes. The cut lands us 3 pts away. There's a decent chance we'll be in hole 120 once this hand is over...Again, if I'm going to push hard to try and get out on this deal, we can lead the Q. Otherwise, the 3 lead seems pretty reasonable.
MiketheExpert says: Personally I'd go with the Q lead here after seeing one cut --- when I can taste victory, let's try and not leave anything to chance. A pair of Q's in dealer's crib could become 6 or 8 pts with a little help, and if I'm playing on a weird online cribbage site, I could be expecting the routine 12 or 16 pt hand from dealer here :))
MiketheExpert says: Here's the interesting question of the day: If leading the Q and dealer takes the 15-2, do we then pair it guaranteeing hole 120 and very likely earning those 3 pts needed, but possibly giving up a lot of pegs while leaving us in the stink hole prior to dealer counting their hand?
MiketheExpert says: (The alternative would be to try and play hard for the run of 3 or more I'd think)....
kal79 says: Mike, what a good question. If it’s me, I’m playing for the run. While pairing the 5 gets us to 120 guaranteed. Our opponent likely has an X card they will play to get to 30. We say “GO” and end up leading the next sequence too. At this point, it would be reasonable we’d be shut out beyond the pair for two, and dealer showing 5-X with a Queen cut could indicate a big hand…
kal79 says: That being said, a hypothetical of 120*-117 would also feel comfortable. I look at this hand and want to go out, but pairing the 5 would still land us in a good spot for next hand, barring a 5-5-Q-K-K hand from the dealer 🤓
arthurk
58 votes

Joined: January 2024
 
 
 
Friday 6:36 AM
My thought process is that I'd take the six points up front and hope for a few points pegging to peg out. On second thought I might have gone 235Q for 4 up front and expecting a face card or a 10 on the cut. On third thought, maybe I should have gone with a popular run option!
Jazzselke
2594 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Friday 7:15 AM
Agree with the strategy of doing our best to go out on this deal.
kal79
26 votes

Joined: April 2024
 
 
 
Friday 8:22 AM
Let’s go out. We’re 12 points away, and holding 2-3-4-5 as the dealer allows us to get crafty pegging. While tossing 2-Q is safer, I don’t want to risk dealing at 116*-116, so I’ll take the risk now instead 😊

After the cut, our hand is now at 8, so we need 4 pegs to go out. I’m leading the 3 and hoping for a 7, 8, or X to snag that 15 for 2. Otherwise, we can try and lean into a run, but if our opponent is smart, they’ll keep away from runs and give themselves a chance to count first next time and win. Depending on what our opponent lays on the first sequence, I’ll try and hang on to my 5 for the next sequence, assuming I can get the go point. If our opponent is holding any X cards, they will have to play them and we will take advantage of another easy 2. I’d imagine this is enough to get us out, even if our opponent pegs a few as well.

Again, 2-Q is also a sensible play here, but for me, I’d rather rely on my ability to set up a strong pegging sequence and a viable hand than rely on my opponent to not hit big on either this hand or the next.
dec
6373 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 8:33 AM
I was waiting for some opinions related to these possible discard choices. Justifying 2-4 did not receive much support. Two Queens a little too much to give in these position. 2/3 is also out. So game cuts here and many cuts to get seven to ten. Opponent wont cooperate here so four lead lets keep them short anyway. dec
sterno
457 votes

Joined: December 2020
 
 
 
Friday 8:41 AM
Tricky puzzle with a couple of shiny objects and the end game is in sight. Q-2 way with the thought of balking the dealer.
horus93
1287 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Friday 8:50 AM
1) QQ will not usually allow dealer to score 21 (or even 20) points in hand+crib+peg
2) A safer toss will still *usually* leave oppo in good position to count out next hand

Therefore, I should aim at either getting as far into peg-out range as possible, or counting out on this hand. So 2345 is a no-brainer to me. The QQ isn't dangerous enough to put oppo out, the "safe" tosses aren't helpful enough as far as, say, keeping oppo to ~112 and then he fails to count out thereafter, with him already at 100*. 2345 is also far and away the best offensive pegger available. I get it, "oh man what if you get in a big exchange of runs, make it to 120*, and then oppo counts out?" Yeah, but I'm more worried about those other scenarios.
wasa
3029 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Friday 10:24 AM
full offence to go for the win
Samgash33
128 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Friday 12:53 PM
Lots of opportunities to go out here. If not, let's hope opponent doesn't go out and then we peg out. Easy peasy.