Saturday 3:05 AM

Giving myself a chance for an A or 2 cut to help the hand.or a middle cut to help the crib

Saturday 3:13 AM

Some will probably be tempted to go with JQ or A3 because of the submitter. Still, I'll follow the general rules of thumb here. The position is obviously defensive - even with lackluster cards we have a massive surplus to win on an extra count (six points even if we scored 0). We have little hope of making up our 4 point deficit to win in n. So even though we're "short of our target" (as some would say), consider that pone only has a five point surplus, and can easily be knocked back with judicious play, while aggressive pegging will just push him up and not get us anywhere near position in the front.

Even though the score looks balanced (-4/+5), the true dynamics are different - the score next hand will likely be something like 48-47* (-11/+5). A big part of positional cribbage is using the cards you actually hold to predict what the RP will be like on the NEXT hand and playing accordingly, especially in balanced and marginal positions like this one - likewise to make the same calculation based on pone's lead and whether it matches the starter, how the second card works with the first, what hands are likely to have contained these cards, and so on.

With careful pegging and a little luck, the score next hand might well be more like 48-44*. And even if pone scores big - say we're looking at a score like 48-52*. Well, that's still a position where defense was not at all wasted (-11/+10), and oppo is still in a position to be knocked down (though things look worse!) Meanwhile aggressive pegging probably only would have gotten us an extra couple of points over average in most cases, so it's hardly worth it here.

On pegging, you could probably do some hairsplitting analysis on the defensive pegging of A378 and A3JQ, but I'm sure they're very comparable on that front. They both have an eleven, they both have touching cards, they both have gapped low cards and an ace - the difference will be negligible.

Checking Liam, my keep is "on top" in hand+crib at 9.4. A378 is "in second" at 9.2. 78JQ is behind them at 8.8. I suppose the bot will pull one of its "shockers" and claim A378 is better. In reality, it's too close to call.

Saturday 3:29 AM

Lo and Behold! It's another RAS Cribbage Puzzle that greets us today, as we 'bake and bathe' beneath a lovely Harvest Moon 🌕 during the height of Indian Summer, in which parts of the country toast in the Autumn 🍂 Colours beneath the Longer Shadows of a Scintillating September Sun, whilst the remainder of people living along the East Coast sadly see flooding, and must fathom its not-so-fanciful implications.

After all, nobody likes wet playing cards! I am fortunate to be living in the Western Region of New York State, far away from any current rain or flooding, but I also realize that historically, we are just days away from a possible early blizzard, with inundation of snowfall. Onto the Puzzle!

At a score of (38*-37), we find ourselves as the Dealer, with a One-Point Lead, as we venture onto Second Street, and we're sitting Six Points 'shy' of the Second Street Par Hole 44, while our Opponent has plans, after achieving an average Ten Points as Pone, of becoming the Next Dealer at Hole 47, which is Three Holes "deep" into that very same Second Street "Zone."

At such a score, we could almost approach this as beginning a new, 25%-off game, using a shortened board; it's maybe akin to when a younger child picks up a three-quarter size violin! Would we trade seats with our Opponent? And would the answer to that question change after looking at our cards?

It's important for new players to understand that during a real game, we could never apply all of the scrutiny and evaluations that are covered in some of these long, detailed Discard Decision discussions such as the one I present today: these are instead more of a way to reveal a way of dissecting and studying a specific problem or puzzle, and in doing this enough times, we can often come to a quicker, more accurate decision during a real game after such practice.

I have often stated that Cribbage is not a self-correcting game, and so in order to improve, it's probably not the best plan to simply play more games. I believe that a much better way to improve our strength in Cribbage is to spend some quality time on specific, instructive hands, as well as strategic Relative Positions, and with more study and effort, a player will slowly acquire better decision-making skills that consume far less time during live games.

We dealt ourselves a few Gapped Small Cards in the form of A-3, and a few Touching Middle Cards that combine to make Fifteen-Two in the form of 7-8, and a few more Touching High Cards in the form of J-Q. Which, if any, of these three separate two-part segments of our six-card Hand should we send a-packin' into our Crib today?

Let's work these in reverse order: Toss (J Q) is the third part of that 'triad' that I have long ago dubbed the "Discard Cousins," or namely: Toss (3 4), Toss (6 7), and Toss (J Q), all of which start out with Zero Points, and yet conspire to reach about Five Points, or become equal to or greater in Crib Value than several High PAIRS in our Crib, namely: Toss (K K), Toss (Q Q), and Toss (T T).

Not only is Toss (J Q) therefore generally a good Dealer Discard, but today it would seem to be part of a "logical split," due to the fact that we have no actual RUN or PAIR, and because we have no 5 Card (or cards that 'add up' to Five); thus, Toss (J Q) seems to be a very natural Dealer Discard.

There's no question that Toss (7 8) is our most powerful Crib Idea today, and yet it means that we would begin with Zero Points in our Hand. However, if we examine the idea of Keep (A 3 J Q) and Toss (7 8), the fact that we have no cards in our Hand that 'add up' to Five does not mean that the Cut Card won't create such; and several, or namely Fifteen Cut Cards (AAA, 2222, 4444, 5555) could serve to 'energize' such an idea.

We would, however, have Fourteen Cuts (6666, 7777, 888, 999) that 'stick us' with at most just One Point, and that's only if the Cut Card is one of Three Heart Suits that give us "Nobs" (or 6h, 7h, or 9h); otherwise, Eleven of those Fourteen Cuts means that our Hand would yield Nothing at All! Yet it should be noted that ANY or ALL of those Middle Card Cuts that do NOT help such a Hand would ALWAYS help boost our Crib!

When considering Keep (7 8 J Q) and Toss (A 3), we see that we'll have a Hand of Six Points or more after Fourteen Cut Cards (5555, 6h, 777, 888, 9h, Th, Kh), which is 14/46, or greater than 30% of the remaining deck. We also note that we have Fourteen Cuts (AAA, 2222, 333, 4444) that 'stick us' with at most just One Point, and that's only if the Cut Card is one of Three Heart Suits that give us "Nobs" (or Ah, 2h, or 4h); otherwise, Eleven of those Fourteen Cuts means that once again, our Hand would yield Nothing at All!

Keep (A 3 7 8) looks as though it's DTP. (What? You never heard of "Down To Peg"?! That's because I just made it up! And only time will tell if the name sticks.) Here we have not just a two-card Magic Eleven of 3-8, but also a three-card Sweet Sixteen of A-7-8. If we can respond to any Ten (or "X") Card Lead with our 8 Card, against a Pone Hand filled with "X" Cards, we might 'snag' an easy (31=2) with our Trey; or, against a Pone Hand of either (5 X X X) or (5 5 X X), we may be able to do the same with our A-7-8 trio.

Recently, we looked at some Discard Decisions that benefitted from having two Small Cards being stashed in our Crib, and I mentioned learning to hone this tactic from Max Kassler's Cribbage Solitaire tool. But these discards almost always involved arrangements of cards in which we had NO OTHER MEANINGFUL DISCARD CHOICES! It's important to note that this is definitely NOT the case today, and it is so pronounced, I think we can rule out Toss (A 3) altogether. While that's not a terrible Dealer Discard, it pales in comparison to those other two choices today.

Since Toss (7 8) is at least a point-and-a-half higher in Crib Value than Toss (J Q), we need to evaluate whether the (A 3 7 8) Pegging Hand can reliably 'make up' for such a difference in our Crib, and I believe it's close enough such that choosing between these two very good Dealer Discards may 'boil down' to a matter of style or player preference today. Both are good ideas.

Leading the First Card when we are Pone is what I consider to be the most difficult skill to master when playing Cribbage, but a close second on the difficulty scale would have to be Dealer Discarding. When we are discarding as Pone, it is a more straightforward matter of retaining what's good, while discarding 'over the board' what is not good. When we are the Dealer, however, now our task becomes more intricate and nuanced, since we shall be trying to achieve "synergy" between the Hand, and our Crib, as well as the attendant pegging.

Today, while Toss (7 8) meets the criteria of trying to establish a powerful Crib, I think in aggregate, Toss (J Q) is a better overall allocation of our resources, especially when we look at Crib, and Hand, and the Prospective Pegging!

Let's Toss (J Q) today, and seek harmony and balance.

After the Deuce of Hearts Cut Card, we now have Five Points in our Hand, with prospects for an average Crib. We might be surprised if Pone decides to Toss (2 T) or (3 K), but we could also come up almost 'Empty-Cribbed' and simply have One Point for Nobs. Those are the breaks.

How shall we usher in the Miraculous Month of October?

Let's listen to Duke Ellington's magnificent "Satin Doll," 🧜🏼‍♀️ which was composed in 1953, and played here fifteen years later (and now, over half a century ago) by the incomparable Thelonious Monk, who conjured up sweet and delightful 'tessitura' and mood in this live performance in Berlin, Germany (1969): https://youtu.be/RsJEkl5GBco

Saturday 4:03 AM

Hmmm...I'm almost equally amenable to the (7 8) or (J Q) throw here, but I'll explain my reasons for the slight preference of (J Q) here. First of all, (A 3 J Q) starts off with 0, and can stay at 0 on the cut, which is almost a deal-breaker, save for the fact these non-helpful cuts to the hand (6,7,8,9) could result in a 24-pt crib, which gets help from at least 2 more discards by pone. Next of all, we are in a position which triggers my offensive aggression, being a few points short of target as dealer, and pone resting comfortably at hole 37. The chances to hold pone to 6 points or fewer (short of hole 43) seem very low to me (I would predict less than 1 in 8, but would defer to Ras for the actual odds.) This suggests that speeding up the game pegging-wise will be in my favor as long as I maintain an optimal pace and don't lose any more ground. Thirdly, (A 3 7 8) which already starts off with an initial 2 pts, will improve on any cut except a face card, and any face card will receive help from the (J Q) crib throw, as well as potentially getting help from the remaining 2 discards thrown by pone. I'm sold on the (J Q)!

Saturday 4:36 AM

What JQT said.

Saturday 4:54 AM

I believe this one will have more factors in our favor. Yesterdays .02 reflected more on style of play. dec

Saturday 5:07 AM

Toss the middle cards and pray for some help.

Saturday 5:18 AM

Better pegging hand. We're getting help from the cut regardless if we toss A3, 78, or JQ.

Saturday 5:24 AM

Not the time to go "fishing" in the crib. Touching cards with pone likely to toss king + something.
Magic 3-8 in hand

Saturday 6:08 AM

Any cut A to 9 helps the hand, any X cut helps in the crib. Certainly speculative, but K-? isn't an uncommon Pone discard either. 3-8 eleven for pegging may be useful.

Saturday 6:22 AM

Tossed the middle cards.

Saturday 6:46 AM

It appears that a preponderance of poor play or poor points has put the dealer in this pit. Here I go again Ras..I need a favorable cut. And here i go again JQT about card frequency. Of the ten most likely Pone crib discards, a 10,Q or K is involved. I also have a 30% chance a X will be cut.

Saturday 10:50 AM

CribEDGE likes the J-Q toss, likely hoping to improve pegging performance. Here's the specifics:

Keep: Ace of Spades, Three of Hearts, Seven of Clubs, Eight of Hearts
Toss: Jack of Hearts, Queen of Clubs
Worth: 2 / Bonus: 4

Saturday 3:32 PM

The hand breaks into 7-8-J-Q (A-3), A-3-J-Q (7-8) and A-3-7-8 (J-Q):

7-8-J-Q: 2pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.52) = 6¼pts

A-3-J-Q: 0pt + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 6½pts

A-3-7-8: 2pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 6¾pts

Potential:

7-8-J-Q: Improves with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 5/6pts with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, 10101010, JJJ, KKKK = 29 cuts. Plus 10 heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

A-3-J-Q: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 3/4/6/7pts with AAA, 2222, 4444, 5555, 10101010, KKKK = 23 cuts.

A-3-7-8: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 5/6/7/8pts with 2222, 333, 4444, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 25 cuts.

Position:

We're only 6pts away from 2nd street positional hole but ideally we'd be at 60pts by the end of this deal which is 22pts away, 6pts more than the average so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think A-3-7-8 will peg best with two low cards, two middle cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

A-3-7-8 is best for starting value by ¼pt and it doesn't have the benefit of the nob potential but it has 25 cuts for 5-8pts compared to 29 cuts for 5/6pts with 7-8-J-Q and 23 cuts for 3-7pts with A-3-J-Q. Plus A-3-7-8 will peg best so I'll throw the J-Q to my box.

Saturday 3:34 PM

At 38*-37 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
A-3-7-8____4.52+3.46+4.78=12.76____17.7____25.9
A-3-J-Q____2.83+2.63+6.67=12.13____18.1____27.6
7-8-J-Q____4.39+2.72+4.41=11.52____16.1____24.9

Offense_______L6 %____L7 %
A-3-7-8________27.2____49.5
A-3-J-Q________25.1____47.1
7-8-J-Q________26.7____49.7

A-3-7-8 is best for expected averages by 0.63pt. and although A-3-J-Q is slightly best for win %s and lowest for Loss %s as it's early in the game I'll decide based on the expected averages and select J-Q to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.