Friday 3:51 AM

No sense giving the dealer anything. I'd rather play a 0 hand than give up a potential big crib.

Friday 4:52 AM

A9 or 39? I will opt for A9, if the dealer has a 5 more likely in hand. My thinking may be skewed by throwing 39 at Deadwood giving my opponent 24 points! I still normally consider it a somewhat defensive throw.

Friday 4:53 AM

It's another Splendid and Fine RAS Puzzle as we 'play out' this Final Friday of what portends to hopefully be the Antithesis of an Austere Autumn Day, as we welcome the lovely onset of colors into what shall soon become the last weekend of this Serendipitous, Sanguine September. 🍁🍁🍁

We are Pone trailing by Two Holes, so let's order up "Tea for Two," which sounds a lot more hospitable as we attend to a Relative Score that isn't quite so harsh as yesterday's debacle. Ironically, we seem to have at least half-a-dozen ways we could do this, even though we hold a High PAIR!

In fact, as I wrap up my work today and insert this paragraph and idea as my final thought -- imagine being nearly tied on First Street, and we are Pone: Is there any Six-Card Arrangement that, while containing a High PAIR (but no more than those same Two Points) that could actually permit us to consider ANY AND ALL, or up to ELEVEN DISCARDS?!

I'm not going to walk through the analysis of each one of these, since enough other players will no doubt enumerate the 'whys and wherefores' of their particular choice(s) today. I'm just fascinated by the wide variety of ideas we could likely come up with, given such a bland-looking card-cluster to start with today! I'm curious how RAS encountered such a motely arrangement, and how various players will approach it.

I'm leaning toward Toss (9 Q) here, as it allows us to potentially 'jam up the works' of our Opponent's Crib, while simultaneously allowing us to 'snare' at least maybe a few potential points. But several other ideas are just as valid here, all the way on up perhaps even including the very adventurous Toss (Q Q)!

In a quick glance at the Expected Values of all Eleven Choices, they only differ by about Two Points in TOTAL, with Toss (Q Q) of course in Last Place. Hessel has Toss (A 9) and Toss (3 9) leading the pack, but Toss (9 Q) is mid-pack, and only about a Half Point away from either extreme. And to further emphasize the 'blandness' of these cards, even the Delta Values only extend about 0.15 Points at most, and mostly in the POSITIVE direction!

When six unique cards have been dealt to us in Cribbage, we can have a maximum of '6 choose 2' equals Fifteen Different Discard Choices, but with one PAIR as we have today, we can 'knock this down' to Eleven Discard Choices. Amazingly, if we include even the strange possibility of 'chucking the PAIR itself' today, we could indeed actually consider ALL ELEVEN CHOICES! I'm sure I've seen something like this before, but it is quite a surprising 'bad bundle' of cards, and if someone had challenged me to compose or construct a Pone Hand with a PAIR present and ELEVEN POSSIBLE CHOICES, I wonder whether there exists a better representation!

How we tackle this puzzle and predicament really depends on our 'style' of play, and any concurrent game situation (our Opponent, and any Tournament Implications, and Stakes Involved, if any, including SKUNK implications). I would really find it difficult to question ANY Discard Choice today, as long as a player comes up with some idea or 'formula' or plan: it's time to let your Cribbage Creativity shine!

Those who enjoy trivia and other miscellaneous minutiae might wish to 'hazard a guess' as to what discard allows us to 'aim high' for the greatest number of points in our Hand today, and it's a bit tricky (answer appears at the end of my post), but it might be a valid discard choice somewhere on the board (but certainly not here!), and so it's probably not a worthwhile consideration at the given score.

Toss (A 9) is another, more aggressive idea, which would enable us to always start with Two Points, while not feeding too much more into the Enemy Crib. But Toss (A 3) seems too risky, and it only hopes to squeeze a bit more out of the "Touching" 8-9 Cards, while placing too much "Youthful Energy" in the Dealer's Crib.

If we Keep (A 3 8 Q) and Toss (9 Q), not only is this the safest Discard Idea that we have today, but it's also one of the very safest Pone Discards in all of Cribbage. After Toss (9 Q), this also means that we shall 'rack up' a healthy Four Points or better after Fourteen Cuts (AAA, 2222, 333, 4444), which is 14/46, and equals just above 30% of the remaining deck.

After Toss (9 Q) however, we would fail to obtain ANY Points whatsoever after an even greater number, or Fifteen Cuts (999, TTTT, JJJJ, KKKK), which is 15/46, and this equates to nearly 33% of the remaining deck. Still, given the cards we have been dealt, this seems to be our best option.

Let's try our Defensive Skills out, and Toss (9 Q) today.

After the Deuce Cut, we now hold Five Points. Let's lead the 8 Card, because if the Dealer 'jumps on it' with any Ten (or "X") Card, then we can 'shinny' the Count up to Twenty-Eight, and either secure a "go" and claim our (31-2), or maybe we can score Two or Three Precious Points with our Ancillary Ace.

Oh, that trivia question is burning in the minds of many, so let's answer it before I forget: we can actually amass Nine Points with (wouldn't you know it) a Deuce Cut, but only if we dare to Toss (8 9)!

Bonus Thought: Is there a Relative Score, something such as (111-117*), that would induce or entice or encourage you to Toss (8 9) from this arrangement? Incidentally, Toss (8 9) is also a way to possibly relinquish a Twenty-Four-Point Monster Crib; imagine being at (118-65*), and after a 7 Card Cut, the Dealer pegs half a Dozen Points to our None, and we score our lowly PAIR of Queens, and then the Dealer plunks down both a Twenty-Four-Point Hand AND a Twenty-Four-Point Crib, and we lose the game, (120-121*)!

Is there any other risk of a Twenty-Four-Point Crib today? Yes, it's very rare, and that would be Toss (3 9)! Toss (Q Q) of course is more familiar territory, and can reach Twenty-Two Points, if the cards conspire.

Looking for something slightly safer? The tricky Keep (A 9 Q Q) and Toss (3 8) is actually our Next Best Hand Scoring Candidate, and it can reach Eight Points after a 5 Card Cut. And Toss (3 8) has ONE THING and ONLY ONE THING in common with Toss (9 Q): Neither of these discards can ever reach beyond the Lowest Maximum Crib Value of Fourteen Points!

Friday 5:47 AM

A tough one this afternoon, and A9 is very much a, "stab in the dark", rather than an answer I'm confident in. The reasonably common, and unwelcome from my point of view, 2-3 and 7-8 discards are less likely from Dealer since I hold a 3 and an 8.

Not the best pegging plan ever, but 3+8+Q = 21 so maybe we'll see:

8(8)-X(18)-Q(28)-go-3(31/2).

Friday 5:53 AM

I’m Keeping my 2 points and tossing the defensive A-9.

Friday 6:23 AM

The 8-9 does not go with the rest of the hand. I took the chance and was rewarded with a 2 cut, ending up with a respectable 9 point hand. Yeah, my opponent could end with with a 12 to 24 point crib. From my point of view, this is a card game - not a tactic in a real life game of war...

Friday 6:24 AM

Here's CribEDGE's result for today's hand:

Keep: Ace of Diamonds, Three of Hearts, Queen of Spades, Queen of Hearts
Toss: Eight of Hearts, Nine of Diamonds
Worth: 2 / Bonus: 5

That turn card is a welcome sight today, boosting the worth of this hand to 9 points.

Friday 6:25 AM

One puzzle where I truly felt caught in the middle...(8 9), (A 9), (3 9), (A 8), (3 8)...I still haven't really made up my mind. Considering our low odds of making it to the first par (hole 18), I will try to throw mud in the already murky water with (3 9), although throwing cards summing up to 10 at the same time getting rid of a potentially weak lone A (A 9) is about equally enticing. Wish I had gone the other way after the deuce cut...With (A 8 Q Q), give me a 4,7,or 8 cut (I guess?) Leading the QH..Will dealer be greedy enough to pair it if he has one with a (X X X X) hand?

Friday 6:53 AM

Another famous Rob quote to guide me. “ If my hand takes me down in the mud then I am bringing my opponent down there with me”

Friday 7:02 AM

Pondered A-9 vs 8-9... with a brief thought at 9-Q. In the end, decided that tossing A-9 is helped by a 5 cut, and so is my hand. A cut helping the 8-9 toss (6,7.8,9,T) would not help my hand, so A-9 it is for me. Cut is to my liking.

Friday 8:44 AM

Many years ago a voice would have said "don't give up points". This forum and years of playing have showed me the error of that statement. Sometimes you have to give up points so you are not giving points to your opponent. The point is I agree with JQT and Gougie00.

Friday 9:39 AM

Yes a nine point hand would have been great. Not willing to give up even an eight point crib. Pluses we could still get a six point hand without immediate help to opponent. The lead the three that way it could not turn into a larger pegged against card. dec

Friday 11:21 AM

Submitted from Noah's Ark. Man, this is a lot of rain.

Friday 3:38 PM

I'll compare A-3-8-QH (9-QC), 3-8-Q-Q (A-9), A-9-Q-Q (2-8), 8-9-Q-Q (A-3) and A-3-Q-Q (8-9):

A-3-8-Q: 0pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = -4pts

3-8-Q-Q: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.55) = -2½pts

A-9-Q-Q: 2pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.94) = -3pts

8-9-Q-Q: 2pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = -3pts

A-3-Q-Q: 2pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = -3¾pts

Potential:

A-3-8-QH: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, QQ = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 4/5pts with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444 = 14 cuts.

3-8-Q-Q: Improves with 2222, 333, 4444, 5555, 7777, 888, QQ = 24 cuts = 52.2% up to 6pts with 2222, 5555, QQ = 10 cuts.

A-9-Q-Q: Improves with AAA, 4444, 5555, 6666, 999, QQ = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8pts with 4444, 5555, QQ = 10 cuts.

8-9-Q-Q: Improves with 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 10101010, QQ = 24 cuts = 52.2% up to 5/6/7pts with 5555, 7777, 10101010, QQ = 14 cuts.

A-3-Q-Q: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 5555, QQ = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8/9pts with AAA, 2222, 4444, 5555, QQ = 17 cuts.

Position:

It looks as if it is the second deal and we only just reached positional hole so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think A-3-8-QH and A-3-Q-Q will peg best playing Offense.

Summary:

3-8-Q-Q is best for starting value by ½pt but A-3-Q-Q has the same number of cuts for improvement and 17 cuts for 6-9pts compared to 10 cuts for 6pts with 3-8-Q-Q. So although the starting value is 1¼pts lower I'll throw the 8-9.

Friday 3:45 PM

At 8-10* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total______W8 %____W9 %
A-8-Q-Q____3.48+(-2.78)+(-4.72)=(-4.02)____11.1____25.0
3-8-Q-Q____3.48+(-2.89)+(-4.67)=(-4.08)____11.0____24.8
3-9-Q-Q____3.43+(-2.83)+(-4.69)=(-4.09)____11.3____23.8
A-9-Q-Q____3.48+(-2.85)+(-4.92)=(-4.29)____10.9____24.4
8-9-Q-Q____3.65+(-3.00)+(-5.05)=(-4.40)____12.1____25.8
A-3-8-Q____2.04+(-2.46)+(-4.08)=(-4.50)_____9.6____22.8
A-3-Q-Q____4.00+(-2.98)+(-5.82)=(-4.80)____11.9____24.8

Defense_______L8 %____L9 %
A-8-Q-Q________22.4____44.4
3-8-Q-Q________22.1____44.4
3-9-Q-Q________22.1____44.0
A-9-Q-Q________22.6____45.1
8-9-Q-Q________23.8____44.5
A-3-8-Q________21.8____45.8
A-3-Q-Q________25.4____46.2

A-8-Q-Q is best for expected averages by 0.06pt over 3-8-Q-Q and it is second best for Win %s to 8-9-Q-Q, Although it is not lowest for Loss %s I'll select 3-9 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead a Q and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Points
Q_____________________1.17
A_____________________1.08
8_____________________0.88