March 24, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
33-35*  ?
44%
23%
10%
8%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 269
Jason19
392 votes

Joined: March 2023

 
 
 
Friday 3:11 AM
I was in a similar position last night at grass roots with A23589 and tossed (5 8). Crib ended up with 4.
james500
4005 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Friday 3:13 AM
I'll start with six points, and hope that a favourable cut and/or some pegging gets me down the board.
3h is a very welcome sight. I'll lead the 4h and announce, "see one, play one", to further sow the seed in their mind of my fake flush.
Gougie00
5817 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:28 AM
I'm tossing 99 to keep the 445 together. Looks like everyone is a winner today.
dec
6464 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:00 AM
5/9 is potentially the second least possibility to hit large out of the five groupings. Now lead the four of hearts and limit the pegging and perhaps have a chance on next deal with good par for us. dec
mrob2199
1492 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Friday 4:05 AM
Not thrilled with my list of options here -let’s go with the 2445-3 cuts will improve us to at least 12-the 99 shouldn’t be too dangerous( famous last words)!-very good possibility of pegging 3 or 4 with the 4 lead -even if things blow up and we give up a 16 crib here there’s a lot of board to catch up
Ras2829 says: Hi mrob2199: Like your thinking. That's easy to do when it matches mine.
JQT
4167 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:16 AM
Today we would like very much to become Next Dealer a or beyond the Second Street Par Hole 44.

Keep (2 4 4 9) and Toss (5 9) may seem a natural solution, but as I look more and more at Keep (2 4 4 5) and Toss (9 9), I believe that the latter idea will ultimately generate just as many points in our Hand, while turning over about the same amount over the board.

Let's Toss (9 9) today.

After the Trey Cut, we now have a Dozen Points, and we are sure to meet our goal! Let's hope that the Dealer did not Toss (3 3) or Toss (6 6)! Let's lead a 4 Card, and look to dump our other 4 Card next.

Wordle 643 4/6 (filled it in with only two positive clues)

⬛⬛🟩⬛⬛
⬛🟨⬛⬛⬛
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
horus93
1330 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Friday 4:25 AM
This position is heavily offensive. Even though dealer is only 7 points shy of par, which can certainly be overcome with so much board to go, especially if we go all-out in the pegging and discard, we are only in marginal position ourselves. The dealer is way too far ahead for there to be any realistic hope for a back game, so our only way forward is forward, even though this is not without risk.

My initial reaction to a Ras puzzle is almost always, “well this one looks easy enough at least.” But they turn out to be trickier than that, and my initial reaction is often wrong. What makes them especially difficult is that they tend to showcase exceptions to Ras’ own rules of thumb. A choice that looks “hopenotic” may really be on top. 23 might not be worth a 3 point sacrifice in starting hand value. Etc.

Today, closer examination confirmed my gut’s initial choice. 59 is about as safe as you can get giving a five to dealer, and this hand is on top in the show. Its biggest rival, as far as I can see, is 2445, which is not far for average count, has a high max, and could rack up a lot of points against some dealer hands. But its averages are being pulled up by the outlier six cut, and the hands against which 2445 would perform really well are probably not really all that probable.

2449 isn’t a great pone pegging hand on offense (no sixteens, no 3-card elevens) but we could get lucky. And isn’t that what cribbage is all about?

Checking Liam, 2449 averages 7.9 in the hand and 6.2 in dealer crib. 2445 averages 7.7 in hand and 6.3 in dealer crib. The ultimate verdict is probably very close – the better pegging of 2445 (it has a 3-card 16 at least) could go a ways to closing the 0.2 point gap. OTOH, while 2449 isn’t a great pegging hand, it’s not bad either simply for its lllm configuration.

Everyone’s a winner with a three cut. I want to be as far past the next par as possible and will continue to pursue an offensive strategy with a nine lead. Might have to switch to defense in the coming hands, but for now I want to pad my surplus.
horus93 says: I won't be at all surprised if the bot favors 2445 based on mean pegging and and hand count. But nearly 20% of 2445's mean hand count is accounted for by four cuts for six. Similarly it can peg huge against some hands, but not commonly. So even if the means favor 2445, I'd stick with the 2449 for a more favorable distribution overall.
horus93 says: *4 cuts for 14 which are sixes
MiketheExpert says: The other thing to consider is though a 6 cut is more helpful for (2 4 4 5) putting is into good position for next deal, it comes with the cost of having thrown the pair of 9's, giving up a crib of at least 6 and quite easily 8-12. Not wild about the 6 cut with (5 9) in the opponent's crib either, but being insulated by holding two 4's in my hand, might not get hurt as much in the crib although costing us points in the hand.
glmccuskey
4179 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Friday 4:45 AM
I’m hoping to get to 45ish. All out offense. Nice cut.
mfetchCT425
1451 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Friday 5:14 AM
Like starting with 6 vs 4 (2-4-4-5), but I think it’s close between these two. 5-9 and 9-9 close as well with respect to dangerous tosses to their crib. Will lead the 4h for possible flush fake.
MiketheExpert says: Feel the same way, as (5 9) and (9 9) are close, and it seems to be my personal experience that I end up getting burned more when I toss (9 9), and I often only give up around 4-6 pts with (5 9), so that may subconsciously have factored into my own decision.
MiketheExpert says: (5 9) is one of those throws that the other player never seems to expect... :)
Jazzselke
2646 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Friday 6:07 AM
Razor-thin difference IMO, as Mike points out above not much to choose between 59 and 99. I like starting with the 6, but it might depend on which side of the bed I get out of, as I seem to do well with 2445.
JQT says: These two hands are indeed close, but let's try to find any subtle or meaningful differences: Both (2 4 4 5) and (2 4 4 9) look similar, but while (2 4 4 5) fails to receive any help from Four Cuts (AAAA), (2 4 4 9) fails to receive any help from Twenty-Four Cuts (AAAA, 8888, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), or SIX TIMES AS MANY CARDS! That's a significant difference for retaining those extra Two Points at the start. We could even then look further to examine if those "Loser Cuts" for either discard idea might tend to possibly help (or hinder) the resultant Hand on our side of the board, as well as the resultant Crib for our Opponent, an exercise I am both humble and kind enough to leave for the curious reader.
RedTailRogue
808 votes

Joined: December 2021

 
 
 
Friday 6:39 AM
"Cut off my nose to spite my face"
Sometimes I would rather sacrifice getting points than giving my pone points. 5 in the crib can be lethal.
wasa
3094 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Friday 6:47 AM
Pondered tossing 9-9 or 5-9. Either way is sure 2 points for opponent. Tossing a 5 is always dangerous. Keeping 4-4-5 has open ends for the 3 or 6 cut double run. 2-4-4 hoping for inside cut? Lower odds, but keep 6 and toss 2 vs keep 4 and toss 2.... Schell has 5-9 at 6.15 and 9-9 at 6.39. So it's close....
Eolus619
1425 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Friday 6:59 AM
it depends on board position and what would be left in my hand that make me willing to make discards like 5-A..5-2…5-8..5-9.

Today..Start with six points and see if I can get to 44.

and to present “evidence” about sending nines across the board I post this from Ras’s ACC tip list

“For those who worry about dealer making the count eleven on the deuce lead (which will require you to make the count 21), let's take a look at what happens to a 9 in dealer's hand. Of the ten most frequent dealer discards to his or her own crib, 6-9, 8-9 and 7-9 stand out. When we look at the next group of ten, there's the 9-10, and a short distance down the list is the 9-9. There is a high percentage chance that if dealer started with a 9, it is now in the crib. Secondly, if a 9 is retained, most often it is retained with other middle cards or 3s. Only in the case of 6-9-10-J (the 6 could be any other card), 9-10-10-J or some other double run from a 9 upwards, or 5-9-10-J, is a 9 present with ten-point cards. Those hands do cause some vulnerability to you if the 9 is used to make the count 11, but they will be in play only about 10% of the time. Play the percentages. If you looked at this over many pegging scenarios, for each 100 pegs that the 2 lead would produce, the x lead would garner the dealer 233 pegs.



Eolus619 says: and it’s Friday..so a short weekend homework assignment if you are so inclined . We have had some very interesting and challenging end game puzzles recently. Here is a scenario involving what to reply to a specific lead based on your keep. Once the link is open click on show the answers after you decide. Two hall of famers disagree! http://www.cribbageforum.com/Ask2009_12.htm
JQT says: Regarding your text which states the RAS idea which states that: "There is a high percentage chance that if the Dealer started with a 9 (Card)..." and so we have to place this entire "If Clause" or supposition under the scrutiny of the fact that in this particular scenario, we have already been dealt HALF OF those 9 Cards! This would I believe tend to reduce the odds of having to follow the otherwise very good advice IN HALF right from the very start! We should always take such ideas, rules, and knowledge, and then, ask, "And how does that affect THIS PARTICULAR SITUATION and THESE CARDS?" In this specific puzzle, maybe we don't worry as little as HALF as much, but the presence of two 9 Cards in our Hand should at least greatly diminish those concerns as per the advice as given.
Eolus619 says: Easy to see your point JQT..the evidence was more about nines in a “general” sense than this specific puzzle..but your comment is accurate , and agreed with , about knowing where 1/2 are
Eolus619 says: and ..counting practice…2-3-6-9…6 = 8
31for14
753 votes

Joined: May 2019

 
 
 
Friday 8:20 AM
All alone here with total defense. Will catch up on one my next 3 deals. He says hopefully.
Eolus619 says: nice to see you posting..CHOD benefits from your experience …
Falseclaimofgame_
46 votes

Joined: February 2023

 
 
 
Friday 8:51 AM
They all only ever get four in the crib when I toss 5-9 🤷‍♂️
winesteward48
898 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 8:52 AM
If we do not discard 9-5 or 9-9, we give up too much to be defensive. Not sure if there is any difference which 9 is kept.
MiketheExpert
1206 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 8:55 AM
(5 9) is an acceptable risk for me to try and make it close to that 2nd street par, with dealer short of position. Very nice cut with the 3H. Switching to defense on the pegs. 4H lead.
MiketheExpert says: Keep (2 4 4 5) and throw pair of 9's is not that far off the pace, as many of the same cuts will aid this hand, and we outperform on pegging with the 2-4-5 magic 11's. Would rather slightly start with 6 pts when comparing the 2 crib discards.
Inushtuk1
1560 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Friday 10:38 AM
Definitely not Defense at -1 to Dealer's +17 (per Schell). I see JQT's point under Dan Selke's post. He may be right again. I hate it when that happens. :). We're dealing at 45 minimum. Honestly not sure whether I should play on or off. I will play Defense with the 4h lead.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Agree with your assessment: "Definitely not Defense". The 2-4-4-5 in that case has the edge. My end-of-day post may fill in a few other blanks for you.
Coeurdelion
5666 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Friday 3:00 PM
I think it's between 2-4-4-5 (9-9) and 2-4-4-9 (5-9):

2-4-4-5: 4pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.39) = -2¼pts

2-4-4-9: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.15) = -¼pt

Potential:

2-4-4-5: Improves with 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/12/14pts with 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666 = 16 cuts.

2-4-4-9: Improves with 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 99 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 12pts with 222, 3333, 44, 99 = 11 cuts.

Position:

We need 11pts to reach 2nd street positional hole and Dealer is 9pts short of it so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

2-4-4-5 has 3 low cards and a 5 plus a 3-card magic eleven so I think will peg better.

Summary:

2-4-4-9 is best for starting value by 2pts but 2-4-4-5 has many more cuts for improvement and 16 cuts for 8-14pts compared with 11 cuts for 12pts with 2-4-4-9. Will 2-4-4-5 catch up the 2pts? I think it might so I'll throw the 9-9.
HalscribCLX
5391 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:35 PM
At 33-35* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total_____W6 %____W7 %
2-4-4-9____7.91+(-2.33)+(-6.29)=(-0.71)___15.1____33.8
2-4-4-5____7.65+(-2.24)+(-6.15)=(-0.74)___16.8____34.8

Defense________L6 %____L7 %
2-4-4-9_________21.9____41.0
2-4-4-5_________23.7____40.2

2-4-4-9 is best for expected averages by 0.03pt. However 2-4-4-5 is slightly better for Win %s although 2-4-4-9 is very slightly lower for Loss %s. As the difference in expected averages is so slight and we're approaching a positional hole I'll decide based on the Win %s and select 9-9 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead a 4 and play Offense:

Lead________Our Pegging Pts.
4________________1.85
2________________1.65
5________________1.61

If we adopted an Offense strategy the results would be:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total
2-4-4-5____7.65+2.07+(-6.15)=3.57
2-4-4-9____7.91+1.22+(-6.29)=2.84

I am however recommending a Defense strategy for the pegging.
horus93 says: Today I learned the value of a three-card 11 versus LLLM without an 11 or sixteen.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Bruce. So the play of the hand is: 4-X-2-X-5(31-2). And *not* 4-X-5-X-2(31-2)? Because he might drop his 5 on ours. Is that correct?
Inushtuk1 says: And thanks Hal for showing us your analysis if on Offense. Because Offense is how I saw the board position strategy.
Ras2829
5235 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Friday 9:58 PM
This is from a live game. The cut, as here, was a trey. Have always ben amazed how frequently a trey is cut when holding 2-4-4-5 Needing ten holes to deal from 2nd street CPZ ()43-47), RAS chose offense to include the pegging. Will lead 4D. Will downshift to defense once seeing the starter card and knowing that have 12 points. Take pegs that appear reasonably safe. Would not triple a four for six pegs as seems dealer would not pair in this position unless holding the hammer. Much preferable to give up a run of three if that should happen than to chance a dozen. Only an Ace does not add value to this hand.