Thursday 3:05 AM

Today we are Pone needing a Dozen Points to WIN in a puzzle by wildman. With the Dealer at Hole 107 and needing just Fourteen Points to defeat us, should we try to 'spike' the Crib, or retain our Best Hand and hope the Dealer never gets to count?

Wildman asks whether we should, "Throw 5-7, keep the double run, and hope to gun it to the finish before dealer counts?" and finally adds, "Perhaps a compromise is the way to go?"

If we Keep (9 9 T J) and Toss (5 7), then we can obtain Ten Points or more after Twenty-Three Cuts (555, 6666, 8888, 99, TTT, JJJ, QQQQ), which is HALF of the remaining deck.

If we Keep (5 9 T J) and Toss (7 9), then we can obtain Ten Points or more after Eighteen Cuts (Ad, 555, 6d, 99, TTT, JJJ, QQQQ, Kd), which is nearly 40% of the remaining deck.

If we Keep (5 9 9 J) and Toss (7 T), which is our most DEFENSIVE DISCARD, then we can obtain Ten Points or more after only Three Cuts (TTT), which is only about 6.5% of the remaining deck.

Toss (7 T) clearly leaves us in a bad place, while the Double Run should ALWAYS get us to Hole 117 or farther, but with a large risk if the Crib gets tallied. Choosing the Double Run seems like we would be playing Russian Roulette, and with an extra bullet being added into the equation!

I'm liking the compromise idea most today, since after Toss (7 9), we shall always get to at least Hole 116, and nearly 40% of the time, we'll only need to peg a few holes in the worst case.

Let's Toss (7 9), unsuited to be sure, because a Crib FLUSH would be a very sad way to lose!

After the Ace of Diamonds Cut, we now have Ten Points in our Hand. Let's lead the Jack.

Wordle 642 4/6 (once used this as my first guess!)

⬛⬛🟨🟨⬛
⬛⬛🟨🟨⬛
⬛🟨⬛🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

   

Thursday 3:22 AM

I like keeping max points in this spot.

   

Thursday 3:34 AM

Pretty dumb for anyone to toss the five. Same cards get you out anway. Also 7-9 to their crib would also possibly give you a chance to peg out next hand, with them leading to you.

   

Thursday 3:52 AM

Too chicken to toss 57. 9910J isn't the hand I want to bet the farm on. The cut gives me 10. Do I lead the Jack seeking a 5 reply or lead the 5 looking for a jack?

   

Thursday 4:03 AM

I'm with the unsuited 7-9 brigade.

I'll lead the 5. 50:50 chance of 25/2, plus with only big cards left in hand, I'm likely to get a go.

   

Thursday 4:18 AM

Out on a limb today (not unusual). I felt this was a situation for all-out offence or all-out defence - and that the compromise position was most likely to leave me tantalisingly close but no further. With pegging prospects looking dicey with the offensive 5-7 leave, I plumped for the defensive 10-7. As it happens, the cut has gifted me 9 points, so looks like I might be best served by a sudden switch to all-out attack!

   

Thursday 4:19 AM

Oh man, one of “those” puzzles. There are two paths forward at 109-107*: count out now, or peg out in the next hand. At 107*, it’s more likely that dealer will simply count out if we fail to do so, but it’s still sufficiently in the realm of the possible that it’s not an eventuality to ignore, especially since our prospects for counting out are not great with these cards.

In order to have a good shot at pegging out, I want at least 9 points in the count on this hand: none of these keeps look like very good peggers, although with high card ranks we’ll probably get a “go”. And besides, if the cut leads me to pursue a peg-out next hand, I’d rather play defense in the pegging now, hence a target of 9 rather than 8 or lower. 99TJ and 59TJ are pretty much equal for cuts for 9+, with 99TJ better for winning cuts, but not by much.

79 is no balk, and with dealer 14 points shy of the game hole, either 57 or 79 is probably going to turn out badly for us if we don’t count out. We’re in a basically losing position right now, but 99TJ and 59TJ are close enough on cuts for win vs cuts for 9+, that I’m going with the safer crib throw. It’s a gamble, but the odds are against us, and anything we do is basically a gamble. I just don’t feel the cards are strong enough to go all-in on the hand with a few more winning cuts.

The cut gets me to at least 118* next hand. Even though I wrote above about going for the peg-out, it's tempting to lead the 5 for a shot at a 15-2, and then win on my likely "go". But it's still not probable enough - I think even most kitchen table players would see through the 5-lead ruse, and we only hold a T and a J anyway. So I'd lead the 9 and play away as much as possible. Mathematically speaking, the 9 has more immediate losers than the T or J, but there's such a bias to hold fives in hand that I figure it's safer.

   

Thursday 4:22 AM

Eleven game cuts. Sixteen cuts could get you Ten or eleven points. That is over half or the deck. I also like the Jack lead if we had three face cards, I might lead the five there. dec

   

Thursday 5:25 AM

I’m with Gary today. Nice puzzle.

   

Thursday 5:31 AM

If we don’t get a cut I much prefer the 79 in my opponents crib rather than the 5-7-also the pegging value of 9-9-10-J as pone is very minimal-at least keeping the 5 gives us a chance to match a dealer 15 on our opening picture lead

   

Thursday 6:25 AM

Depends on my other cards Bruce-if I had a hand such as 4567 I would unquestionably play the 7 on a picture lead

   

Thursday 7:21 AM

I’ll give up 1 point to keep from putting a 5 in dealer’s crib. Leading the 10 and hope to pair the 5 reply.

   

Thursday 7:56 AM

Mathematically, tossing the 5-7 gives us the highest odds of going out on first count. It probably maximizes our chances of losing if we don't get a favourable cut. Hmmmmm

   

Thursday 8:28 AM

Putting a 5 in the crib gives the dealer at least 2 points if we don't go out. So, I will try this set of cards. I hope the dealer does not notice I have my fingers crossed with each play.

   

Thursday 10:05 AM

True that 9-9-10-J provides the largest potential hand score. There are no four cards among these six that give the n/d two full pegs. 5-9-10-J does out peg the double run by a bit. There is a chance dealer will not go out (1 in four). So let's minimize crib score with 7-9. That 5-7 average is 7.083, two points higher than the 7-9. So, let's consider those combined values and avoid the double run this day.

   

Thursday 3:13 PM

   

Thursday 3:32 PM

I'll look at 9-9-10-J (5-7) and 5-9C-10-J (7-9S) and perhaps 5-9-9-10 (7-J):

9-9-10-J: 8pts - 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = +1pt

5-9C-10-J: 7pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.26) = +1¾pts

5-9-9-10: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.68) = -½pt

Potential:

9-9-10-J: Improves with 555, 6666, 8888, 99, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12/15/16th with 6666, 99, 101010, JJJ = 12 cuts. Plus 11 diamond cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

5-9C-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 8888, 99 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 67.4% up to 12/13/14pts with 555, 99, 101010, JJJ = 11 cuts. Plus 11 diamond cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

5-9-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 8888, 99 +14xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 555, 6666, 8888, 99, 101010, JJJ = 23 cuts.

Position:

At 109-107* I'll play Offense. The decision may rest on the number of cuts for 12pts or 10/11pts needing to peg 1/2pts.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 5-9C-10-J will peg slightly best.

Summary:

5-9C-10-J is best for starting value by ¾pt over 9-9-10-J.

5-9C-10-J has 555, 99, 101010, JJJ = 11 cuts for 12pts+. Plus AD, 6D, QQQQ, KD = 7 cuts for 10pts.

9-9-10-J has 555, 6666, 99, 101010, JJJ = 15 cuts for 12pts+. Plus 8888, QQQQ = 8 cuts for 10pts.

9-9-10-J has 4 more cuts for 12pts+ and one more cut for 10pts needing to peg 2pts so I'll throw the 5-7.

   

Thursday 3:35 PM

At 109-107* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense____Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___Win %___Loss %
5-9C-10-J___9.26+1.28+(-4.78)=5.76____47.9____52.1
9-9-10-J____9.83+1.04+(-6.88)=3.99____46.9____53.1
5-9-9-10____6.78+1.43+(-4.43)=3.78____20.4____49.8

5-9C-10-J is best for expected averages by 1.77pts and is slightly best for win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select the unsuited 7-9 to discard. After the AD cut I'll
lead the J and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
J__________________1.60
10_________________1.55
9__________________1.38
5__________________1.22

   

Thursday 4:21 PM

At this junction, it is not likely we can prevent dealer from going out, but with slightly less hand potential and slightly better pegging potential than keeping the double run, I'll do it this way..(7 9) has a much better chance of preventing dealer from counting out than does (5 7). Ad gives us a cool 10 pts, however we are still 2 pts away from pegging. J lead sounds good to me.