March 23, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by wildman
109-107*  ?
55%
39%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 288
wildmanThrow 5-7, keep the double run, and hope to gun it to the finish before dealer counts? Perhaps a compromise is the way to go?
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:05 AM
Today we are Pone needing a Dozen Points to WIN in a puzzle by wildman. With the Dealer at Hole 107 and needing just Fourteen Points to defeat us, should we try to 'spike' the Crib, or retain our Best Hand and hope the Dealer never gets to count?

Wildman asks whether we should, "Throw 5-7, keep the double run, and hope to gun it to the finish before dealer counts?" and finally adds, "Perhaps a compromise is the way to go?"

If we Keep (9 9 T J) and Toss (5 7), then we can obtain Ten Points or more after Twenty-Three Cuts (555, 6666, 8888, 99, TTT, JJJ, QQQQ), which is HALF of the remaining deck.

If we Keep (5 9 T J) and Toss (7 9), then we can obtain Ten Points or more after Eighteen Cuts (Ad, 555, 6d, 99, TTT, JJJ, QQQQ, Kd), which is nearly 40% of the remaining deck.

If we Keep (5 9 9 J) and Toss (7 T), which is our most DEFENSIVE DISCARD, then we can obtain Ten Points or more after only Three Cuts (TTT), which is only about 6.5% of the remaining deck.

Toss (7 T) clearly leaves us in a bad place, while the Double Run should ALWAYS get us to Hole 117 or farther, but with a large risk if the Crib gets tallied. Choosing the Double Run seems like we would be playing Russian Roulette, and with an extra bullet being added into the equation!

I'm liking the compromise idea most today, since after Toss (7 9), we shall always get to at least Hole 116, and nearly 40% of the time, we'll only need to peg a few holes in the worst case.

Let's Toss (7 9), unsuited to be sure, because a Crib FLUSH would be a very sad way to lose!

After the Ace of Diamonds Cut, we now have Ten Points in our Hand. Let's lead the Jack.

Wordle 642 4/6 (once used this as my first guess!)

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Eolus619 says: Morning John..if you were dealer in this puzzle, would you be playing O or D for the pegging strategy
fentesk says: Any consideration for leading the 5 today? Or being 12 out would you assume dealer isn't taking a 15 unless they only have X cards?
JQT says: The Dealer should try to accurately assess our own prediciment today, and this means not only the Dealer's Cards, but the Cut Card and especially our Lead Card. A 5 Card Lead after an Ace Cut speaks a bit too much of a desperation of needing Two Poiints by Pone, so I much prefer leading a Ten or "X" Card today, and we should do so from the 'edge' of our Run, thus the Jack. The Jack of Diamonds is also a small show of strength, since it does reveal a point, and every point is nearly 8% of our way toward VICTORY.
fentesk says: Thanks for the thoughts!
glmccuskey
4093 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Thursday 3:22 AM
I like keeping max points in this spot.
Falseclaimofgame_
46 votes

Joined: February 2023

 
 
 
Thursday 3:34 AM
Pretty dumb for anyone to toss the five. Same cards get you out anway. Also 7-9 to their crib would also possibly give you a chance to peg out next hand, with them leading to you.
wasa says: I respectfully disagree. As per JQT, tossing the 5-7 gives us a 50% chance of winning with the cut. Holding this way gives you a 40% chance of winning with the cut. It will be interesting to see what HAL says with the odds of winning/losing. I can definitely understand if my choice is not optimal.
MiketheExpert says: I think the W/L%'s are probably indeed as close as what HAL says due to the fact. Better odds of getting out on this hand by keeping the double run, but much better odds of seeing the next hand compensates for this.
Gougie00
5722 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:52 AM
Too chicken to toss 57. 9910J isn't the hand I want to bet the farm on. The cut gives me 10. Do I lead the Jack seeking a 5 reply or lead the 5 looking for a jack?
Eolus619 says: Morning…I should not and will nor speak for Al Miller..just a reminder to us all ..one can play defense into a close loss.
Gougie00 says: "one of the each" is both a better offense and defense strategy. Holding 9910J means I am looking for a 5910J. Holding 5910J means I have a few more starters to help. What do I know?
Eolus619 says: Gougie00…well you do know a lot out cribbage for sure..the cut card makes us all a clairvoyant genius or something else !
james500
3915 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Thursday 4:03 AM
I'm with the unsuited 7-9 brigade.

I'll lead the 5. 50:50 chance of 25/2, plus with only big cards left in hand, I'm likely to get a go.
Hawthorn
456 votes

Joined: January 2023

 
 
 
Thursday 4:18 AM
Out on a limb today (not unusual). I felt this was a situation for all-out offence or all-out defence - and that the compromise position was most likely to leave me tantalisingly close but no further. With pegging prospects looking dicey with the offensive 5-7 leave, I plumped for the defensive 10-7. As it happens, the cut has gifted me 9 points, so looks like I might be best served by a sudden switch to all-out attack!
Hawthorn says: Sorry, that should be "offensive 5-7 toss" not "leave"
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Thursday 4:19 AM
Oh man, one of “those” puzzles. There are two paths forward at 109-107*: count out now, or peg out in the next hand. At 107*, it’s more likely that dealer will simply count out if we fail to do so, but it’s still sufficiently in the realm of the possible that it’s not an eventuality to ignore, especially since our prospects for counting out are not great with these cards.

In order to have a good shot at pegging out, I want at least 9 points in the count on this hand: none of these keeps look like very good peggers, although with high card ranks we’ll probably get a “go”. And besides, if the cut leads me to pursue a peg-out next hand, I’d rather play defense in the pegging now, hence a target of 9 rather than 8 or lower. 99TJ and 59TJ are pretty much equal for cuts for 9+, with 99TJ better for winning cuts, but not by much.

79 is no balk, and with dealer 14 points shy of the game hole, either 57 or 79 is probably going to turn out badly for us if we don’t count out. We’re in a basically losing position right now, but 99TJ and 59TJ are close enough on cuts for win vs cuts for 9+, that I’m going with the safer crib throw. It’s a gamble, but the odds are against us, and anything we do is basically a gamble. I just don’t feel the cards are strong enough to go all-in on the hand with a few more winning cuts.

The cut gets me to at least 118* next hand. Even though I wrote above about going for the peg-out, it's tempting to lead the 5 for a shot at a 15-2, and then win on my likely "go". But it's still not probable enough - I think even most kitchen table players would see through the 5-lead ruse, and we only hold a T and a J anyway. So I'd lead the 9 and play away as much as possible. Mathematically speaking, the 9 has more immediate losers than the T or J, but there's such a bias to hold fives in hand that I figure it's safer.
horus93 says: Oops, missed the nob. So I'm at 119*. Still play away with the 9 though.
horus93 says: Maybe it'd be better to lead the J, though, with JQT, and look for a game-winning five response. Even against a savvy opponent, at 107* the other person's cards could be weak enough that he feels he has to take the fifteen.
horus93 says: And since the scoring reply wins, besides a pair but why would he pair, the j lead is surely right. But it took all morning to see that… the people I know get annoyed if you take even 20 or 30 minutes to make your play! Haha
dec
6350 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 4:22 AM
Eleven game cuts. Sixteen cuts could get you Ten or eleven points. That is over half or the deck. I also like the Jack lead if we had three face cards, I might lead the five there. dec
Jason19 says: Agree. Although I get the idea behind leading a 5 when you have 3 faces, I've never had the nerve to try it.
mfetchCT425
1393 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 5:25 AM
I’m with Gary today. Nice puzzle.
mrob2199
1427 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 5:31 AM
If we don’t get a cut I much prefer the 79 in my opponents crib rather than the 5-7-also the pegging value of 9-9-10-J as pone is very minimal-at least keeping the 5 gives us a chance to match a dealer 15 on our opening picture lead
Eolus619 says: morning Rob..if you were dealer in this puzzle would , and you held a five . would you play it for 15/2..thx
Eolus619 says: meant if the J was lead
mrob2199
1427 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 6:25 AM
Depends on my other cards Bruce-if I had a hand such as 4567 I would unquestionably play the 7 on a picture lead
Eolus619 says: right thx..obviously hand dependent ..at least obvious after you explained it !
LoneStarPegger
811 votes

Joined: January 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 7:21 AM
I’ll give up 1 point to keep from putting a 5 in dealer’s crib. Leading the 10 and hope to pair the 5 reply.
wasa
3011 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Thursday 7:56 AM
Mathematically, tossing the 5-7 gives us the highest odds of going out on first count. It probably maximizes our chances of losing if we don't get a favourable cut. Hmmmmm
winesteward48
830 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 8:28 AM
Putting a 5 in the crib gives the dealer at least 2 points if we don't go out. So, I will try this set of cards. I hope the dealer does not notice I have my fingers crossed with each play.
Ras2829
5145 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 10:05 AM
True that 9-9-10-J provides the largest potential hand score. There are no four cards among these six that give the n/d two full pegs. 5-9-10-J does out peg the double run by a bit. There is a chance dealer will not go out (1 in four). So let's minimize crib score with 7-9. That 5-7 average is 7.083, two points higher than the 7-9. So, let's consider those combined values and avoid the double run this day.
Ras2829 says: Am choosing an optimal strategy when looking at the pegs, once seeing the six cards, and will shift to offense once seeing the starter card and knowing that need two pegs.
Ras2829 says: With dealer 14 out, take any two pegs offered.
Ras2829 says: With n/d needing 12 points to win, not likely that dealer will 15-2 or pair the lead. Lead the Jack as it leave the 9=10 intact and if not picking up tywo pegs earlier, just might trap an 8 spot by dropping five as second card played. Always tough to get two pegs as non-dealer in situations where those pegs are essential.
RGM
893 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 3:13 PM
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Thursday 3:32 PM
I'll look at 9-9-10-J (5-7) and 5-9C-10-J (7-9S) and perhaps 5-9-9-10 (7-J):

9-9-10-J: 8pts - 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = +1pt

5-9C-10-J: 7pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.26) = +1¾pts

5-9-9-10: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.68) = -½pt

Potential:

9-9-10-J: Improves with 555, 6666, 8888, 99, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12/15/16th with 6666, 99, 101010, JJJ = 12 cuts. Plus 11 diamond cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

5-9C-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 8888, 99 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 67.4% up to 12/13/14pts with 555, 99, 101010, JJJ = 11 cuts. Plus 11 diamond cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

5-9-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 8888, 99 +14xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 555, 6666, 8888, 99, 101010, JJJ = 23 cuts.

Position:

At 109-107* I'll play Offense. The decision may rest on the number of cuts for 12pts or 10/11pts needing to peg 1/2pts.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 5-9C-10-J will peg slightly best.

Summary:

5-9C-10-J is best for starting value by ¾pt over 9-9-10-J.

5-9C-10-J has 555, 99, 101010, JJJ = 11 cuts for 12pts+. Plus AD, 6D, QQQQ, KD = 7 cuts for 10pts.

9-9-10-J has 555, 6666, 99, 101010, JJJ = 15 cuts for 12pts+. Plus 8888, QQQQ = 8 cuts for 10pts.

9-9-10-J has 4 more cuts for 12pts+ and one more cut for 10pts needing to peg 2pts so I'll throw the 5-7.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:35 PM
At 109-107* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense____Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___Win %___Loss %
5-9C-10-J___9.26+1.28+(-4.78)=5.76____47.9____52.1
9-9-10-J____9.83+1.04+(-6.88)=3.99____46.9____53.1
5-9-9-10____6.78+1.43+(-4.43)=3.78____20.4____49.8

5-9C-10-J is best for expected averages by 1.77pts and is slightly best for win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select the unsuited 7-9 to discard. After the AD cut I'll
lead the J and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
J__________________1.60
10_________________1.55
9__________________1.38
5__________________1.22
MiketheExpert
1114 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 4:21 PM
At this junction, it is not likely we can prevent dealer from going out, but with slightly less hand potential and slightly better pegging potential than keeping the double run, I'll do it this way..(7 9) has a much better chance of preventing dealer from counting out than does (5 7). Ad gives us a cool 10 pts, however we are still 2 pts away from pegging. J lead sounds good to me.