Tuesday 3:55 AM

Four different cards.

   

Tuesday 4:10 AM

Like the multiple coverages this hold brings to the table-a magic 11,a 5 and a pair of deuces for a potential 3 or 4 points

   

Tuesday 4:15 AM

9+2 = 11 and 9+5+2 = 16, but I reckon I need to get the twos in back to back at a high count.

   

Tuesday 4:46 AM

Can we get the count up to mid to high twenties here to peg our four? dec

   

Tuesday 4:56 AM

5 covers all face leads so will dump the 10 and J. Pair of deuces could be key at the end of pegging sequence.

   

Tuesday 5:09 AM

Keeping 22. Not sure about the rest.

   

Tuesday 5:22 AM

Rob covers it all for me very succintly.(The pone is 9 points out, so very well may have to keep all face-cards, hence retaining the 5).

   

Tuesday 5:25 AM

Offense or defense? Let’s get two birds stoned at once and keep 2259. I doubt it’s much worse on defense than other keeps, in fact it could be the best of them, and it’s on top for offense imo. Its biggest defensive vulnerability is likely letting pone steal last card. But some other keeps risk low-card mischief at the end of the first play series, and that’s probably more dangerous. Yeah a deuce could be trapped. So could a five, nine, ten, or jack. It probably won’t get trapped. And I think it's harder to trap two deuces than a lone deuce.

Some people will want to dump the five under the notion that fives are dangerous for dealer. This isn’t so, imo. There are some famous pone five traps but they don’t show up that much. 95+% of the time, pone scores nothing off dealer five, unless dealer allows it (e.g. taking a fifteen and letting him pair it etc). Fives are way more dangerous for pone. And besides, we shouldn’t lock in on defense in the discard at this score.

Let's say pone leads a X. Do you fifteen it, or not? I think that's a more interesting question than the discard itself today. 9 points for pone is no sure thing at all, and if he pairs your five, that could be all he needs to go over the top. I'd probably make my decision based on whether pone's lead card works with the starter, but I'm leaning toward defense in general here, rather than desperately trying to peg 4 and just pushing the other guy forward. But I would for sure try to conserve my deuces. But even that is only a 3-point play that probably loses you last card.

   

Tuesday 6:15 AM

Following RAS logic - 4 lowest cards have the best pegging potential. Try to pair my own 2s. James mentioned the 2-9 magic 11 and the 2-5-9 magic 16 but I don't think my opponent will be keeping 5-X-X-X or X-X-X-X.

Opponent does need 9 points (if I can math before coffee) so if I don't peg out still a chance I can count out, but not willing to bet the farm.

   

Tuesday 7:05 AM

I agree with the people who have chosen the 4 lowest cards today. In my mind, I will be trying awfully hard to peg those 4 before pone's count.

   

Tuesday 8:31 AM

5-9-10-J is overkill for points and probably will not peg well. I want to keep the 2s for their potential to peg. What else? I decided on the J just in case we cannot peg out and pone does not have enough points. But, I can also see the value of the 9 for the 31 potential.

   

Tuesday 9:02 AM

As winter relinquishes its once-mighty grip on the Northern or 'Top' hemisphere (and it receives such billing, why? Because we happen to live in it! So much of our existence is self-centered!

And thoughts turn to warmer weather, budding flowers in the fields, and tanks rumbling south toward Crimea, getting superior traction . . . okay, one step at a time, I suppose!

Let's just rejoice for those who have endured this new year, this new decade, and this new millennium, thus far, having experienced the recent passing into and through the Vernal Equinox (both words too long for Wordle, sorry!) It's maybe a metaphor for today's Cribbage Puzzle!

I lay around, amidst a barrage of crumpled bits of medical bills, another rent increase contract, other detritus and tax forms, ensconced within a paper mountain in a purportedly paperless world, next to a variety of prescription pill bottles . . . some full, some empty, most at an interim state of having helped, and possibly still having the ability to help: for what more can be asked of any substance, whether it be physical or tangible, or even imaginary or embodied and thus emboldened with . . . hope. Hope tethered to action; that is good. (Am I avoiding today's puzzle?)

Hearing the reliable, first early-morning note of the Cardinal always helps soothe; it always calms and heals; it occurred promptly and predictably this morning, at 6:34 a.m., followed by idle chatter from the Chickadees (as if they existed in the bleachers, from farther afield), and then there is the pleasant activity of the various and sundry Woodpeckers: the Downy, the Red-bellied, and the "Heard But Rarely Seen" Pileated. And all the while (for this is no mere ensemble!), honking geese arriving from All Points North, bellowing and echoing across the vast, snowy meadow, like the bassoons and the French horns of an orchestra.

We are greeted by a Cribbage Puzzle from Eolus619, who admits that he "did not peg four points" and that he lost the game (120-121) "Ouch!" after Keep (2 2 5 J) and Toss (9 T); with the puzzle he has provided us under careful consideration, he is asking the group how any and all and each of us might have achieved another outcome.

Let's examine our predicament: If we can peg Four Points and do so without giving up Nine Points to our Opponent FIRST in the process, we shall secure the WIN, end of story. Since we were dealt a Jack, this means we have about a 6.5% chance of cutting a Jack, and after scoring "His Heels," that would chop our workload in HALF, and allow us to begin at Hole 119. But we know that this will NOT happen roughly 93.5% of the time, so let's not count on a Jack Cut.

Regardless of how we discard, I believe we can call the Crib a "Don't Care" in today's puzzle. Our primary and first objective is to attempt to assess whether we should try to DEFEND and perhaps allow Pone to count or tally the Hand, and in the process, prevent Pone from scoring those Nine Points needed for the WIN. However, we do know that Pone NET Total tends to be closer to Ten Points, and with approximately Two Points usually coming from the pegging, it's a crap-shoot, although not a very bad one, if we merely attempt to defend in this manner.

Conversely, if we go all-guns-blazing and try to peg out, we also must realize that the Dealer Pegging Average is close to 3.5 Points! And I don't know about you, but I despise losing Cribbage games by one-half of a point!

Luckily, regardless of what cards we are dealt, we can retain BOTH options simultaneously, and thus while trying to peg out, we can also do so opportunistically, with some finesse, and at the same time, look to prevent Pone from pegging very much.

A LOT of how we choose to act and react will be determined by the Cut Card, for if it's say a 5 Card, we shall know that this will very likely help Pone have enough points to go out with First Hand Show. That means we might be switching tactics, not just upon seeing the Cut Card, but actually after seeing each card played by Pone. Being observant is what wins such endgames.

We are also assured of being able to peg One Hole as the Dealer, unless in the rare case, Pone should somehow peg Nine Holes unopposed and go out FIRST! That should NEVER happen, so we should bank on always getting either that Last Card, or a "go," somewhere along the way.

What to do? I am drawn to those two Deuces, not just as "goal-getters" for pegging, but also as a good defensive resource, since it provides "safety in numbers." Anything we were dealt in abundance means the odds that Pone was dealt these same cards is diminished.

Also, I like the 2-9 duo as it forms a "Magic Eleven" in order to reach a Count of Thirty-One. And since the 5 Card is a powerful Pegging Card, it seems that Keep (2 2 5 9) is a natural idea for an Offensive Pegging Hand.

Some players may view the second Deuce as possibly redundant: granted, it can often SELF-PAIR, and it is indeed yet another High Value Pegging Card. But if we hold just one Deuce, we STILL "cover" the rank if a Deuce is led, and meanwhile, we can add yet another rank to "cover" more lead cards by Pone.

The problem however is that that "other" card we might hold happens to be another Ten (or "X") Card, and if this means adding the Jack into our Hand, now we're talking about trying to benefit from a card that is often a liability! This is where Cribbage gets very difficult and nuanced. We found a possible way to improve our variety by sending one Deuce into our Crib, but in doing so, we may be allowing the camel's nose (the Jack) to slide beneath the tent. If we had a better "replacement" or substitute card, I'd be all for it; but I'm afraid I will have to vote against it here.

Defensively, I still like those Deuces as previously mentioned, but in this case, perhaps Keep (2 2 9 T) makes sense. Pone needs to hold enough to go out, which means holding a Jack for possible "Nobs" will be a BIAS for Pone, and that means we should ditch the Jack.

As we predicted earlier, the most difficult matter to decide upon is not the particular Hand, but the POSTURE to adopt: Offense or Defense! I think we risk more if we lean toward defense, because Pone may have enough to WIN from the start, and then we would be beat from the start; also, we stand much less of a chance to peg out ourselves if we choose defense.

Let's look to adopt an Offensive Posture, and Keep (2 2 5 9) and Toss (T J) today.

After the 9 of Hearts Cut, we now have Four Points in our Hand, with prospects for a Crib we shall likely never look at. It's all about the pegging today. Do we PAIR a Deuce Lead? CERTAINLY! Do we PAIR a 5 Card Lead? Ah, now we're getting into the tough territory! I think I might, but in a "live" game, I'd want to see if Pone's hand was trembling when it was played!

Pegging Four Holes against a Defense-Minded Opponent is NOT an easy task. But in many instances, Pone will need to peg a few holes, so it is here where our opportunity presents itself.

It's a bit lengthy (I'm not joking!) to cover all of the possible plays and contingencies, but generally, I would play aggressively in this Relative Position. Four Points can be an eternity, but it can come as early as half way through the pegging as well. And PEGGING is our only friend and ally today. But I've rambled on quite enough already today (this is me in the midst of a several-days episode of nasty neuralgia; a familiar occurrence, as the air pressure darts up and down like fairgoers on a carousel, wreaking havoc with any attempt at having a normal day, during these seasonal changes). I hope you enjoyed the ride!

We'd REALLY like to score upon Pone's Lead Card, and perhaps surprisingly, this is possible after Pone might lead Twenty-Five Cards (22, 555, 6666, 99, TTT, JJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), or more than HALF (55% in fact) of the remaining deck! Be optimistic, and PLAY TO WIN!

   

Tuesday 9:22 AM

AsI said up top..I kept the J thinking, erroneously[!], that Pone would possibly keep one and I could pair..as it turns out my held J is actually a liability. Lesson learned. I got good choice distribution among the overall voters..BUT the seasoned players not so. Thx to all for your insight.

   

Tuesday 9:36 AM

The late, great DeLynn Colvert told me in a few of the years that I played the Montana State Championship which he directed so effortlessly that "here is the key to pegging". If this is all you know about pegging it will put many games in the win column for you. A, 2, 3, 4, 5 have high pegging value; 6-7-8-9 have moderate pegging value, Jack has low pegging values, 10-Q-K have none. Retain cards when available based on those values. By retaining the 2-2-5-9 dealer has gained two other advantages (2-card "eleven from heaven") and a "sweet sixteen". With dealer needing four to win, peg values were my only consideration. If one focuses on the pegging game which is non-existent with most players, you'll stand out in a crowd. A strong pegger will average more than 26 pegs per game. That's far more than can be realized on average from crib scores. Half the players are adept at avoiding pegs; about 25% have a true offensive pegging plan among tournament players. At the "kitchen player" level, pegs are purely accidental. Develop a pegging plan and refine it; Once done, I'll read of your success on the front cover of Cribbage World magazine. Great puzzle Eolus619!

   

Tuesday 2:35 PM

I'll try to prevent Pone from pegging any points and hope we can safely peg 4pts. So I'll try 2-2-5-9 which keeps the low cards and a magic eleven.

   

Tuesday 2:46 PM

At 117*-112 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the Our Peg Out %s and Pone Peg Out %s are:

Optimal___________Our Peg Out %______Pone Peg Out %
2-2-5-9_______________51.6________________0.0
2-2-5-10______________42.2________________0.0
5-9-10-J______________41.1________________0.0
2-2-5-J_______________39.7________________0.0
2-5-9-10______________39.7________________0.0
2-5-9-J_______________39.4________________0.0
2-2-9-10______________29.8________________0.0
2-2-9-J_______________29.4________________0.0
2-5-10-J______________27.7________________0.0
2-9-10-J______________23.9________________0.0
2-2-10-J______________18.8________________0.0

2-2-5-9 has very much the best chance of Our Pegging Out so I'll select 10-J to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.