March 20, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by jmath714
101-55*  ?
80%
18%
0%
Total votes: 291
jmath714This was a qualifying game, where I was attempting to lock in a skunk. Somehow, I won this game by only 15 after everything was done. I see the position wholly as trying to stop the dealer from getting 36 holes. For the record, I held 55KK, and cut a 4. My opponent pegged all over me, holding 2344 and threw Q5 to the crib.
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Monday 3:37 AM
I think this is the best chance for a skunk.
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:43 AM
I also like this hold. If short after the starter I might try to engage in some pegging to get closer or possibly peg out. dec
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 3:46 AM
More cuts help the double run than do 55KK, but I've no escape card. Hopefully I won't need one.

4 lead.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:47 AM
While we certainly want to log a SKUNK today, I would probably also focus on Spread Points, and this still presents an interesting dichotomy.

If we Keep (4 5 5 6) and Toss (K K), our odds of going out without having the Dealer tally both Hand and Crib would rely upon Eight Cuts (444, 55, 666), or about a 17% proposition; but most likely another Fourteen Cuts (TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KK) might get me very close, pushing the odds up to 49% that will find me reaching at least Hole 117.

If we Keep (5 5 K K) and Toss (4 6), our odds of going out without having the Dealer tally both Hand and Crib would rely upon Four Cuts (55, KK), or nearly a 9% proposition; but most likely another Dozen Cuts (TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ) might get me very close, pushing the odds up to only 35% that will find me reaching at least Hole 117.

It looks clear that we have a better chance of preserving more Spread Points if we Toss (K K), although if we do not go out, our Opponent might avert the SKUNK. But I like the low risk-to-reward ratio, so let's Toss (K K) today.

After the 7 Card Cut, we now have Fourteen Points in our Hand, and in order to stop the Dealer from tallying Hand and Crib, we must peg Six Holes.

Let's BE BOLD and lead a 5 Card -- maybe the Dealer will PAIR it!

Wordle 639 4/6 (knock yourself out)

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Ras2829 says: With a 46-point lead will spend no time on choice of strategy. Move down the board, lead a five. It would seem that n/d to lose this game needs to peg backwards this hand and the next.
JQT says: At a score of (101-55*), what would I say to the Dealer? "Boy, I wish Cribbage had a Doubling Cube like Backgammon!" 🎲 But here is what ELSE I would tell the Dealer: Only two things are necessary to overcome *any* deficit in a game such as Cribbage: We need a Reverse in Luck or Fortune, and we need TIME. More precisely, all that's required in order to overcome our Opponent in any game of Cribbage, no matter how "lost" it appears, is that WE must proceed to get the same (or better) cards dealt to us that have thus far been enjoyed by our Opponent; and similarly, our Opponent should now also begin to get those miserable (or worse) cards that echo those that have so far caused our misfortune and deficit, and of course, we must also not "run out of time" (Real Estate, or Board) in the ensuing process. Given enough time, along with a complete, total reverse in fortune, any deficit can be overcome!
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:57 AM
Full speed ahead and avoid any icebergs.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Monday 4:21 AM
Neat, a double-skunk puzzle. I’ve wanted to submit one for a while. Having been double skunked a few weeks ago (as starting dealer no less) it would assuage my wounded pride a bit to double skunk a make-believe opponent on dch.

Not much to say about this discard though, and wonder if I’m just half-awake and missing something. 4556 is better than 55KK with more cuts for improvement and more cuts that win outright. 4556 is worse for defensive pegging, but we don’t have the luxury of considering that if we want the SS. In the discard our main concern has to be our own scoring, and we just have to trust fate to get us through the pegging. 4556 is too much the better than 55KK in the count for pegging potentiality to weigh with us, whether offensive or defensive.

It sounds like most people are more concerned with the skunk than the double-skunk, though, since double skunks don’t count in acc games. They count in mine! If going for the skunk, more of a case could be made for the defensive 46, since then there’s less pressure to count out now or peg out next hand. But as jmath’s comment points out, 55KK is hardly a standout defensive hand for pone. So if going for the skunk I’d still keep 4556, since so many cuts will get me into reasonable peg-out range next hand, and KK is usually pretty safe.

If concerned only for the win, and not the skunk or double-skunk, would for sure keep 4556.

I never understood spread points, since cribbage isn’t about the score. It’d be like playing a game of 8 ball and then giving bonus points to whoever hit the edge of the table the most times.

Offense to the cut, concur with JQT on the five lead. I’ve had some success on offense lately leading the five from 4556. Like he said, it could be paired, and it keeps a diversity of touching cards to perhaps form a run. Unfortunately, if we go after runs, dealer might peg past the SS line. Still, he’s six points out, we just might get away with it.
horus93 says: I'll never make a post without a typo or muddleminded mistake... when I said "there's less pressure to count out now or peg out next hand", obviously going for a double skunk we need to count out now. Pegging out next hand won't cut it.
Gougie00 says: Back in the day double skunks counted as 4 points. The problem was the 12th game of a tournament, the better players would double skunk their opponents to be the lowest qualifier in the playoffs. Too much suspicion that the opponent fluffed the game. I witnessed someone fluffing a game in West Springfield, tossing a 78 in the opponent's crib, so it definitely still happens. Anytime I am the high non-qualifier, well ...
MiketheExpert says: That's what I remember...in a 7-game match, a double-skunk would be worth the equivalent to 4 won games! But now it seems like there isn't much extra incentive....which could very well be perhaps why some would play it a different way here.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Monday 4:32 AM
3 cards for 23 or 24 points, I would take that chance to get the skunk on this hand. Hopefully we do not run into the pegging issue Jason encountered with 55KK if we don't get the cut, although certainly possible with 4556.
mfetchCT425
1395 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 4:47 AM
Full on offense here. K-K one of the safer pairs to toss to opponent’s crib, and even if a cut occurs that helps their crib, a 5 or a K or may help their crib such as other “10” cards besides the K, these all help our hand.
Jason19 says: Agree.
wasa
3013 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Monday 5:38 AM
As above. Cuts that help my crib toss also help my hand (5,K) plus any T,J,Q cut which may help opponent's crib gives me another 4 points which is nice
mrob2199
1429 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 5:46 AM
I’m actually with you in the distinct minority here Jason-let’s concede that we will obviously win the game-but how to best secure the skunk-with dealer 36 pegs away with his 3 counts( and that third one might be wiped out by our end game pegging) do we play percentages or guard against the worst case scenario?more cards put us immediately out with the 4556 hold-but throwing kings and cutting a JQ or K couid provide a 16 point crib for dealer-much prefer the 46 toss while holding 2 fives-also the dealer is going to be Uber aggressive in pegging here-the 4556 couid be obliterated unless pone leads a 5 to diffuse it-but not many players choose that option-looks like you ran into the perfect storm here Jason but I still think it was the sounder option
MiketheExpert
1116 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Monday 6:15 AM
I guess I'm going for the infamous double skunk which has most cuts by keeping our double run!
MiketheExpert says: I'll worry about the pegging after I get one of these :-)
MiketheExpert says: After the 7 cut, the most offensive as WELL as the safest lead is one of those 5's. Assuming the double skunk is out of reach (unless he slips up, pairs my 5 lead and STILL isn't able to make it past hole 60 before I count out!)
MiketheExpert says: This is one of those "strange" holdings in which the proper keep may "flip-flop" at different point spreads. If we remain fixed at hole 101, and alter the point spreads, what would be your inclination at dealer holes of 55, 65, 75, and 85 respectively? 55 has been covered in this puzzle today. At hole 65, I would keep the (5 5 K K), as I believe the odds of holding him to under 25 pts and still earning a skunk on his next 3-count are better if I toss the (4 6), rather than hope to get a cut that hits (4 5 5 6) to get out on my first count right here. At hole 75, I may REVERT back to holding (4 5 5 6) as my best chance to earn a SKUNK, but I don't have a fear that I will be in danger of giving up enough to give AWAY the GAME! Finally, at hole 85, my chances to skunk are so minimal, that I may revert back to DEFENSE and toss the (4 6), as if I give away the K's and keep the more dangerous pone pegging hand in (4 5 5 6), then some CONCERN starts to creep in that he would have a chance to steal away the game on his next 3-count if I can't count out, or at least get very close within pegging range by the time of the next deal.
Eolus619
1336 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Monday 7:11 AM
hmmmm.. my reasoning..the best way for me to earn 20
points before dealer earns 36 is to get more than half way there with this hold…perhaps the other valuable lesson is to never give up in a game..current dealer earned 51 points in two hands! Can’t remember where in Ras’s video class he talks about a similar situation, being way behind, and still getting the needed win to make the Cribbage All- American team. As Yogi Berra said..” It ain’t over til it’s over”
Ras2829 says: Hi Eolus619: I lead a very talented club in skunk win/loss % and generally would play the hand this way. The 46-point lead caused me to hold 4-5-5-6. If lead were 36, would have chosen 4-6 as discard.
Eolus619 says: thx Ras!!!!!
Eolus619 says: whew...46 back with an All American birth at stake..
Eolus619 says: upon review..maybe you were referring to this puzzle not your needed game
Ras2829 says: Hi Eolus619: Hard to argue your choice when you are supported by Coeurdelion and HalscribCLX. Good job!
Eolus619 says: Thx Ras...quite the game cribbage is!!!
winesteward48
832 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Monday 8:33 AM
I am still thinking defense in spite of the huge lead.
MiketheExpert says: I would ordinarily be thinking defense. As Ras said above, if the lead were only 36, then I think keeping (5 5 K K) is certainly correct with myself at the same hole. This is TOO big a lead for me to thinking defense, so if I have somewhat of a realistic chance for a very rare double skunk, I just had to try! Dealer has an also extremely low percentage shot of avoiding a skunk...I suppose if in some tournaments we were strictly thinking about spread only, then (5 5 K K) defensive maybe? But even here with such a lead, I'd probably hold the double run.
sterno
451 votes

Joined: December 2020
 
 
 
Monday 8:39 AM
Oh.... in the heat of chassing a double skunk this puzzle forced me to tap the breaks.... The pair of kings are so tempting but... the double run gives me the best chance for 20!!
Falseclaimofgame_
46 votes

Joined: February 2023
 
 
 
Monday 12:20 PM
Everyone else should delete their accounts 🤣
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 2:42 PM
If there were a kitty for high hand or points for a double skunk then I'd go for 4-5-5-6. Otherwise I'll keep 5-5-K-K and throw 4-6 which obviously has significant negative delta as we hold two 5s.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 2:45 PM
At 101-55* playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging (cautious offense) the dynamic expected averages, Win/Loss %s, Chances of the Skunk and Equity (Spread Pts) are:

___________________Net
Optimal___Hand___Pegs___Crib___Total____W1 %____W2 %
5-5-K-K____13.74+(-1.43)+(-4.63)=7.68____12.8____99.0
4-5-5-6____15.30+(-2.59)+(-5.12)=7.60____27.4____99.5

Optimal____L1 %____L2 %___Skunk %___Equity (Spread Pts)
5-5-K-K_____0.0_____0.0____93.0____________41.23
4-5-5-6_____0.0_____0.0____91.0____________39.97

5-5-K-K is very slightly better for expected averages by 0.08pt. However 4-5-5-6 has a very much better chance of going out this deal but 5-5-K-K has a slightly better chance of the Skunk and approx. 1¼pts better spread points. So I'll select 4-6 to discard. This makes no allowance for any extra points for a double skunk.

After the 7 cut I'll play Optimally and lead a K:

Lead_________Net Pegging Pts.
K________________(-0.92)
5________________(-1.84)