November 28, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0-0*  ?
60%
21%
8%
8%
0%
0%
Total votes: 253
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Monday 3:16 AM
Not enough guts to throw 23 to dealer so I’ll sacrifice the three points to NOT throw to them.
Goatman says: Wonder what their crib would count with the 23 discard and that 3 cut card…
glmccuskey
3960 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Monday 4:03 AM
Sacrificing to many points as opening non dealer to avoid throwing 2-3. I’ll lead the jack and take any points offered.
mrob2199
1302 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 4:22 AM
I’m with Gary today-just too many cuts give us at least a 10 point hand to break it up
dec
6207 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:25 AM
Not here to start with 3-4 points less. Ten lead. dec
Gougie00
5583 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:36 AM
I hedged. Tossing 23 for what is only 7 pts could lose the game on 1st st. I might learn something today.
Eolus619 says: Well said Gougie00..i might learn something too!
Ras2829 says: Hi Gougie00: Well done and you were the first this day to make this choice. Deciding to retain the 2-3 makes all the differnce.
sterno
370 votes

Joined: December 2020
 
 
 
Monday 5:05 AM
Some will say this is a typical RAS puzzle. Others will believe it is a cup of cribbage poison. I have not had my coffee and are in a bit of a hurry this morning so poison it is. I tossed 2-3
james500
3780 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 5:06 AM
Only four cuts before the cut, but a safe-ish discard and fair chances for hand improvement.
5 lead.
MiketheExpert says: This hand still has many cuts for improvement (222,333,4444,555,7777,888,TTT,JJJ,QQQQ,KKKK), that is 34/46 cuts, and also keeps our J for an extra 0.2. I think it may outperform on offense because of the very dangerous (2 3).
MiketheExpert says: The (888) above should read (999).
Jazzselke
2494 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Monday 5:56 AM
Sometimes a calculated risk has to be considered. I have been known to say "they don't always match".
Jazzselke says: Although today might be one where they do!
MiketheExpert
979 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Monday 6:52 AM
I don't like any options. Here is one where I honestly may play it differently, depending on my mood and how desperate I am to make "hay" on the opening and how much risk I'm willing to take. Today, I was not in the mood to risk the (2 3) toss, and so I hedged with the (2 9). If that 9 was a Q, then I'm not giving up the 9 pts, and would be tossing (2 3) any day.
wasa
2878 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Monday 7:32 AM
I'm in the "full charge as first pone" camp, so it's the most aggressive 2-3. Obviously my cutting skills need work today....
Eolus619
1200 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Monday 8:02 AM
I took longer to decide than would be allowed in a live face to face game. In situations like this , it is helpful for me to remember the most frequent dealer discards to crib. Pone sending 2-3 is helped by 2-3…6-7..A-2…A-3…Q-K…and it is a powerful point generator. Keeping 2-3-5-10 only misses on two cuts. I am blaming Jazz if I am wrong..Colvert is the right answer ( full on offense from 0-0*) until he isn’t.
Eolus619 says: The Dan/Bruce counting puzzle today is, according to Colvert, the most often miscounted hand in cribbage....6---2-3-4-9 = 9
Eolus619 says: A BTW..yesterday Mike the Expert cautioned that keep 2-3-4-7 required careful counting so...the following cuts produce these scores..no wonder he cautioned us A=6..2=10..3=10..4=10..5=6..6=7..7=5..8=7..9=5 and all the face/tens = 5..for practice use each cut and count the hand
horus93
1157 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Monday 8:06 AM
Defense with these cards. 23 absolutely not worth it.
Hillchem
2801 votes

Joined: April 2015
 
 
 
Monday 9:10 AM
Need 121 points to win this one. I can hold 7 with a good shot at least 10. More often than not, I’ll lead the 5 and see if I can’t pair or get a run at the end.
winesteward48
707 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Monday 9:23 AM
Just not willing to put 2-3 into the dealer's crib. Why toss 9-J? I like the pegging possibilities of 2-3-5 and put 9-J in the crib to hopefully prevent a run.
Obscure
94 votes

Joined: September 2022
 
 
 
Monday 10:51 AM
Interesting... Ran today's hand through CribEDGE, and I gotta say I didn't like it at first. I'm once again surprised to see how popular its choice turned out to be with you guys. Here's CribEDGE's output:

Keep: Five of Hearts, Nine of Clubs, Ten of Clubs, Jack of Hearts
Toss: Two of Clubs, Three of Hearts
Worth: 7 / Bonus: 3

I thought more of you guys would consider keeping the Two and Three for pegging purposes to be the stronger hand. Still, I am happy to see that CribEDGE's ongoing streak of sensible choices seems to be yet unbroken. I gotta start keeping a tally of how many days it's been...
Inushtuk1
1336 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Monday 11:34 AM
I tossed the 2-3 as well. I will lead the 5. Nine replies allow us to recoup those 2 points. (999, 101010,JJJ. The 5 would make a great defensive lead also.
Inushtuk1 says: I agree with Hillchem about getting a run at the end with this 5 lead. Also, I missed the Ace reply which would also allow us to draw first blood with our 5 opening lead. And it makes perfect sense for the Dealer, playing defense as GSD, to reply to our 5 opening lead with an Ace, or a 9.
Eolus619 says: Inush..i see your logic and you may very well be right tossing the 2-3. What I can't come to terms with is the Dealer starts the game with a +7 point advantage.Pone tossing 2-3 averages 7 in dealer crib. So now dealer is +14 and only needs to get to 8 to maintain advantage.I await Ras & Hal to straighten me out.
MiketheExpert says: This is why more often than not, I might disobey Colvert's advice with this hand - As good as (2 3) is in your own crib, it is even higher average on the other side of the board. I suspect it will be close, but the combined value may suggest that (2 3) is the correct throw from HAL... But, I'd probably only try it in the final game of a match that I absolutely needed to win having the disadvantage of being first hand pone.
Ras2829 says: Hi MiketheExpert: Have no idea how De Lynn Colvert defined offense. Played him scores of games over the years and should have asked. HalscribCLX and I agree that offense is determined by pegs scored + or -, hand score, and crib score + or -. Just counting the value of a hand is often not the gain/loss experienced. Using the combined values offers a far more accurate measure though complicates a complex game for most.
MiketheExpert says: Hi Ras. That makes perfect sense. I'm not sure myself what the combined value would dictate here. Even if it came to be (2 3), I'd still be heavily reluctant :-)
Coeurdelion
5475 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 5:14 PM
I'll look at 5-9-10-J (2-3), 2-3-5-J (9-10) and 2-3-5-10 (9-J):

5-9-10-J: 7pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.33) = -½pt

2-3-5-J: 4pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = -1¼pts

2-3-5-10: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.96) = -1pt

Potential:

5-9-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 8888, 999 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 10/12/13/14pts with 555, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 16 cuts. Plus 10 heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

2-3-5-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 7777, 8888 + 14xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 7/8/10pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555 + 14xXs = 31 cuts. Plus 10 heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

2-3-5-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 7777, 8888 + 14xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 7/8/10pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555 + 14xXs = 31 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is at 18pts so I'll play Offense to try to reach or exceed it.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 2-3-5-J and 2-3-5-10 will peg best.

Summary:

5-9-10-J is best for starting value by ½pt over 2-3-5-10 and with the 0.22pt for nob potential 2-3-5-J is roughly equal. Both 2-3-5-J and 2-3-5-10 have more cuts for improvement and both have 31 cuts for 7-10pts. So I think they will catch up the ½pt especially as both should peg better. I think that the fact that 9-10 is suited may tip the balance so I'll throw the 9-J.
HalscribCLX
5187 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 5:17 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-3-5-10___7.22+1.70+(-4.77)=4.15____25.6____23.7
5-9-10-J___9.72+1.30+(-7.19)=3.83____30.4____23.2
2-3-5-J____7.43+1.63+(-5.28)=3.78____26.0____22.8
3-5-10-J___6.76+1.50+(-4.52)=3.74____24.0____23.7
2-5-10-J___6.50+1.41+(-4.45)=3.46____22.8____22.7

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-3-5-10______38.4____50.9
5-9-10-J______44.7____53.0
2-3-5-J_______40.5____52.3
3-5-10-J______36.5____50.3
2-5-10-J______36.5____51.0

2-3-5-10 is best for expected averages by 0.32pt. and although 5-9-10-J is appreciably better for Win %s and 3-5-10-J is slightly lower for Loss %s as it's the beginning of the game I'll decide based on expected averages and select 9-J to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
3_____________________1.81
10____________________1.70
2_____________________1.60
5_____________________1.58
Inushtuk1 says: Son of a gun.
MiketheExpert says: Very interesting. I would have chosen (2 3 5 10) with the discard of (9 J) a very close second, and it is only my aversion to throwing J's away which prevented me from doing so as my first choice. But "our" pegs makes up the balance to propel this into the front, even ahead of (5-9-10-J), which is not altogether surprising.
BreadedFungus
36 votes

Joined: March 2022
 
 
 
Monday 8:18 PM
Eolus619 says: welcome!..keep posting
Ras2829 says: Hi BreadedFungus: Sounds real tasty -like a morel mushroom dipped in egg, coated in bread crumbs, and sauteed in butter. Great to have a fungus amungus. Welcome aboard, hang on, enjoy the ride, as it's a fast-moving train with few stops along the way.
Ras2829
5009 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 8:21 PM
It's not often that n/d can hold a hand of 7 points and discard a combination which averages more than 7, and gain points in combined score. The 2-3 is such a powerhouse of a discard to opponent that even from hands such as 2-3-10-J-J-Q, 2-3-J-J ought to be retained. What? Give up on 16- or 17-point hand? Yup!! Choosing offense to include the pegging, RAS will lead the 10, keeping 2-3-5 intact. Very little difference in pegging value whether holding 5-9-10-J or 2-3-5-10. It's that huge 7+ points in crib that thrusts 2-3-5-10 to the fore.