November 25, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by joekayak
108-109*  ?
44%
27%
15%
4%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 232
Goatman
2495 votes

Joined: March 2017

 
 
 
Friday 3:21 AM
Going for the 14 hand. Like the 28 to dealer over the 27 only because I have one of the fives.
james500
3476 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Friday 3:45 AM
I'll try 2-8 too.
dec
5890 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:07 AM
Game hole cuts. May be able to trap a run(s) in pegging, might have to chance it on that. dec
mrob2199
1166 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Friday 4:18 AM
Prefer to keep this hood for the 4 cuts for 12 and 1 for 10-combined with the excellent pegging potential of 2345-dealer will be very hesitant to match so we have a great chance of pegging 2 to 4 points-which hopefully will put us out
Eolus619 says: Rob..once again you post a very educational comment. TY.. A BTW though ..I am the one who should probably have a hood over his hand ..not you!
mrob2199 says: Haha Bruce-my typical early morning typo rears it’s ugly head again!
wasa
2595 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Friday 6:58 AM
Either 2-8 or 7-8 to try and keep enough for 12 points and then peg 2. Cut gets me 7. Hope opponent falls into a pegging trap. Maybe keep 2-3-4 to play at the end for 4 points?
wasa says: edit - cut gives me 8
MiketheExpert
670 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 7:52 AM
Desperate situations call for desperate measured. The crib toss is "unlikely" to matter with dealer only 12 pts out (3 to 1) chance of getting 12 pts, and I have to hope for a cut and pegs that will enable me to count out as pone THIRTEEN points from going out. Thus, I am going to throw (2 7) and keep (3 4 5 8), which is one of the "best" hands for trapping dealer as pone for a potential huge pegging score. With the cut of 10, unfortunately I won't be able to get out on this deal. I will still try the 8 lead to prepare for the trap if dealer follows with a face card to either reduce spread points, or still have a glimmer of hope that dealer will be blanked in the crib (2-7-10) being 3/5 cards is a good start!, and that I may be close enough to peg out as dealer on next hand if he fails to make it out.
MiketheExpert says: I just realized, still have a small chance of counting + pegging my 13 points on this deal, if dealer is forced to keep a hand such as (5-X-X-X). See the below: 8(8)-X(18)-4!!(22)-5(27)-3(30) for 4 points (3 + go). 2nd round: X(10)-5(15) for 2 more points, total of 6! (3 4 5 8) with a 10 cut gives you 7, thus 108 + 6 total pegs + 7 hand count = 121!
Eolus619
894 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Friday 8:08 AM
hmmmm..in an actual game it would be hard for me to quickly evaluate the four discards that yield 12+…the 3-4-5 stays together ..sent the 2-8 since I could easily seen the narrow cuts that would get me 14.
horus93
859 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Friday 8:13 AM
Have to risk the 7-8. IF we win it will probably be by pegging out next hand. Have to move down the board, even making a dangerous toss to do so. Hopefully it is only worth 2. I'd lead the three and play offense to the cut.
Inushtuk1
1036 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Friday 8:14 AM
I chose the (2-8) as the safer toss. But the 3-4-5- 8 is the better offensive keep for pegging. See Mike the Expert's excellent post above me.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: If dealer has X-X-X-X or 5-X-X-X, the 8 lead often results in a count of 18, to which n/d responds with the 4 for a count of 22. In either case n/d plays the trey for run of three with a go. Does not work that way with 3-4-5-7 as can't reach count of 22 except by playing the five which dealer will safely pair if holding a five though will work for run of thee and go if dealer holding all X-pointers.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Thanks. But I was aware of that. But I do have a chance for 14 with the 3 cut, and a slightly safer toss. I'm glad you are back. Can you please answer my question at the end of your post, from Wednesday; two days ago. Thanks in advance.
MiketheExpert says: A smart dealer might and "should" next play the 5 over my 8 lead (especially if holding 5-X-X-X) to prevent this potential trap scenario of his 5, and also giving up further points on the next round :-)
MiketheExpert says: As we all know, players do not always make the RIGHT play, and thus for me it is perfectly worthwhile to attempt it!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Mike. Is the 5 *always* the right play for the Dealer on an 8 lead? Or, does the K, Q, or J response ever make sense on offense?
MiketheExpert says: That's the beauty of the game :-) The dealer does not know what I'm holding when I lead the 8, thus there are times when playing the face card would work out BETTER for him if he were on offense (hence why it is called a TRAP play). So I couldn't say it is always wrong --- in this particular situation, it might be hard for the "average player" to recognize that the only way it could go SO far wrong is if he were to get his 5 trapped, and he should make EVERY effort at a score of 108-109* to prevent this from happening, knowing that all he needs is 12 pts to count out between his hand+crib.
MiketheExpert says: But anyway, HAL is rating my selection as last place today, so maybe what I'm saying is all nonsense. Even if dealer does play the "5" next, I would still score 8(8)-5(13)-5(18)-X(28)-3(31) for 4 points, which is still preferable for him than getting his 5 trapped, which would give up 6 points.
Inushtuk1 says: thanks Mike. Just the answer I was looking for. I have long known about the 5 response to an 8 lead from Barlow's book. But only recently did I see it as the obvious way to avoid my 5 being trapped. I usually did it, simply to cause the Pone consternation if he was holding a mitt full of mid cards.
winesteward48
432 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 9:53 AM
A 3-4-5 cut would have been nice.
Gougie00
5270 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Friday 12:08 PM
Was thinking about 2345. But what happens if I miss? Went wide just in case.

Do I lead the 4 or lead the 7 and try to mix it up pegging?
MiketheExpert says: I'd say the 7 on the off chance that dealer kept a double-run of face cards, and you'd at least score some pegs to reduce the spread loss. It is better than the chances of leading the 4 and trying to hope dealer cannot count out, if you're trying to prevent his score it is anyway not a good defensive hold.
Inushtuk1 says: I'm leading my 7, and hoping for a Dealer with all X-pointers.
Coeurdelion
5170 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Friday 1:16 PM
I think it is between 2-3-4-5 (7-8), 2-3-4-8 (5-7) and 3-4-5-7 (2-8) and the deciding factor I think will be the number of cuts for 10-13pts and also how likely it will peg well.

2-3-4-5: 4pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.63) = -3½pts

2-3-4-8: 5pts - 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = -2pts

3-4-5-7: 5pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.94) = 0pt

Potential:

2-3-4-5: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 888 + 16xXs = 39 cuts.

2-3-4-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/9/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 888 = 19 cuts.

3-4-5-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 888 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 9/12/14pts with 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 888 = 19 cuts.

Position:

We need 13pts to go out and it's unlikely that we can stop Dealer scoring enough this hand as they only need 12pts so I'll play all out Offense.

Pegging:

All three hands will peg well but 2-3-4-5 always pegs very well.

Summary:

2-3-4-5: 333, 444, 555 = 9 cuts for 12pts. 222 = 3 cuts for 10pts.

2-3-4-8: 222, 333, 444 = 9 cuts for 12pts.

3-4-5-7: 333, 444, 555 = 9 cuts for 12/14pts

2-3-4-5 and 2-3-4-5 have guaranteed improvement but 2-3-4-5 has 39 cuts for 8-12pts including 9 cuts for 12pts and 3 for 10pts. Also it should peg best. In this position we needn't worry about the 7-8 so I'll throw this.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Richard. Why not consider 3-4-5-8(2-7)?
HalscribCLX
4888 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Friday 1:30 PM
At 108-109* playing an Offense strategy the Win/Loss %s are:

Offense__________Win %_______Loss %
2-3-4-5__________38.3_________61.7
3-4-5-7__________29.2_________70.8
2-3-4-8__________27.1_________72.9
3-4-5-8__________26.3_________73.2

2-3-4-5 is best for Win/Loss %s so I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead the 2 and play Offense:

Lead______________Our Pegging Pts.
2_______________________2.16
3_______________________2.15
4_______________________1.94
5_______________________1.64
MiketheExpert says: I think 2-3-4-5 is definitely not a bad choice, and should certainly rival my selection of 3-4-5-8, as perhaps being "overly HOPEFUL" that a trap play could materialize. Being at hole 108, there are (333,444,555) 9 cuts for a dozen, meaning only having to peg 1 pt, as compared to only 6 cuts for a dozen holding the (3 4 5 8). And I would also say it would be easier to peg 2 pts for sure with (2-3-4-5) than it is with (3-4-5-8). (3 is probably questionable!) However, (3-4-5-8) should certainly be rated above the other 2 choices if you ask me.
MiketheExpert says: Also, the assumption seems to be that it doesn't matter what is tossed in the crib, which is not entirely true - the odds are "technically" close to 1/4 that dealer will earn less than 12 assuming an "average" crib toss and normal play, but you can probably shave this number down given the fact that we are forced to use a very aggressive pegging strategy.
MiketheExpert says: Going back to the "difficult to count hands" subject - not sure if anyone noticed my mistake above - a 3 cut with (3 4 5 8) actually gives me 14 pts and a win, and not a dozen - so it is only 3 cuts for a dozen, but 3 cuts for 14 pts!
Obscure
47 votes

Joined: September 2022

 
 
 
Friday 6:42 PM
Gotta say, I've been pretty happy with CribEDGE's results lately. Here's what it spat out for today:

Keep: Three of Clubs, Four of Diamonds, Five of Diamonds, Seven of Spades
Toss: Two of Clubs, Eight of Spades
Worth: 5 / Bonus: 4