July 2, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
68*-68  ?
36%
22%
21%
18%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 211
JQT
3539 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 3:01 AM
As we are Dealer and tied at Hole 68, this is now akin to a "short" game, perhaps after one deal has passed.

We'd rather be at the Second Street Par Hole 70, so it would be nice to optimize our Hand and Crib to get back on track.

We could Toss (2 3) or Toss (7 8), so it's between good and great! But which one is the "great" discard? Toss (2 3) is more likely to receive help from our Opponent, and that's where two-thirds of the help comes from in Cribbage. But Toss (7 8) is also a fantastic discard!

And that's because Pone is as likely to throw a Middle Card such as a 6, 7, 8, or 9 Card, as Pone is likely to throw a Small Card such as Ace, Deuce, Trey, or 4 Card.

Nothing usually beats Toss (2 3) in terms of Future Growth in our Crib, and I believe it's the right discard today. We can probably peg more defensively if we Keep (2 7 8 8).

After the Queen Cut, our Hand still has just Six Points, and yet we have very good prospects for our Crib. Meanwhile, we can probably best defend during the pegging without several of those pesky Small Cards.

With great help from fellow "Hand of the Day" poster, fentesk, I was also able to confirm the conjecture that Evil Wordle can indeed be solved with just Five Guesses, and did so in virtually poetic fashion: ready, pluck, fight, moons, BOMBS!

I also conjured a way so that Guess Six in Evil Wordle would become "BOOBS" after: ready, pluck, fight, swoon, zooms, BOOBS. My supposition is that this feat can also be performed in a few as Five Guesses, a proof I leave for the reader.
fentesk says: It took me longer than it should have to figure out what Evil Wordle was after you first mentioned it as my first play had the answer of BOOBY, so I assumed the "evil" was meant more as "adult".
JQT says: The trick is to exhaust not just all but one vowel and the "S" but also those two-letter consonant pairs such as BR, FL, etc., and isolate just one vowel. Oh, if you were born in the late 50s and came of age in the 70s, getting your red-segment Texas Instruments calculator to spell "BOOBS" (upside down) using the number "58008" was an electronic nerd's rite-of-passage. Evil Wordle, the site, not just an adjective! https://swag.github.io/evil-wordle/
fentesk says: 58008 remains a favorite of students today. Some things are timeless.
Goatman
2203 votes

Joined: March 2017

 
 
 
Saturday 3:02 AM
Like to keep 788 together. LOVE 23 to my crib.
Goatman says: Just now saw “it”…Should have kept 2D to fake a flush.
Goatman says: Just now saw “it”…Should have kept 2D to fake a flush.
jmudge says: Ohhh clever, I hadn't considered that tactic. This is why I love hanging out with this group: I continue to learn!
jmudge says: Ohhh clever, I hadn't considered that tactic. This is why I love hanging out with this group: I continue to learn!
Nelson says: I'm not drinking an Irish coffee this morning but I think I'm seeing double.
Nelson says: I'm not drinking an Irish coffee this morning but I think I'm seeing double.
Inushtuk1 says: You *did* keep the 2d Goatman.
Inushtuk1 says: You *did* keep the 2d Goatman.
JQT says: Pressing those buttons on the elevator several times doesn't make it go any faster!
JQT says: Pressing those buttons on the elevator several times doesn't make it go any faster!
JQT says: Pressing those buttons on the elevator several times doesn't make it go any faster!
JQT says: Pressing those buttons on the elevator several times doesn't make it go any faster!
james500
3306 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Saturday 3:07 AM
Two good discards available in 2-3 or 7-8d.

Two open-ended double run possibilities that could be kept in -2-2-3- or -7-8-8-.

Six points plus 2-3 in the crib seems good to me.
dec
5718 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 3:17 AM
I saw the three diamonds might be a few plays to utilize a fake flush play. Two-three in the crib always warranted. dec
Gougie00
5094 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 3:56 AM
I wanted that 223 together. Looks like I'm an outlier today.

jmudge
467 votes

Joined: July 2020

 
 
 
Saturday 4:21 AM
After reading comments from Goatman and dec, I realize that I threw the wrong 2!
mrob2199
1025 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Saturday 5:07 AM
Potential for 12 or 14 with this hold while stashing the powerful 2-3 to our own crib? Sign me up!!!!
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021

 
 
 
Saturday 5:08 AM
Jazzselke
2140 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Saturday 5:10 AM
23 a higher average than 78, and more likely to be helped by the opponent; hope for the somewhat popular hi-low toss of AX.
MiketheExpert
502 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Saturday 5:27 AM
I should be back on track after this discard...with this cut, I'm not so sure. Now I may need to risk taking a couple of points on the pegging I otherwise wouldn't have had to take if I'd gotten the cut I wanted........
scottcrib
1008 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Saturday 6:25 AM
Whether I toss 7-8 or 2-3, every cut helps hand or crib. That's unusual. Since 2-3 averages more, off it goes!
Eolus619
726 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Saturday 7:16 AM
This is a tight game and somewhere on my journey to par holes 70 & 96 I need @ least three additional points to be @ 111-104*. Following Rob’s soon to be even more famous cribbage theorem ..” don’t over think this” ..powerful 2-3 to the crib ..and to repeat scott …..cut help… hand or crib …from 13/13 ranks
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Bruce. I'm seeing us at 110 in three deals time, and our opponent at 104. So it would be 110-104*. So we need to find at least one additional point. Perhaps I am missing something. Cheers.
Eolus619 says: yes your cycle calculation is correct…i was must giving myself some wiggle room…111+ is the goal ..all the best
Nelson
39 votes

Joined: June 2022

 
 
 
Saturday 8:04 AM
Tied at 68 with a hand that is crib friendly. 7-8 or 2-3 to the crib are both fantastic, and then there's the 2-2-3-8 hold that would have benefited from the cut card, but too late now. 2S-3H to the crib. I will attempt to fake a flush and peg with caution while still trying to pick up an extra point or two. Nice puzzle.
Duby86
77 votes

Joined: May 2022

 
 
 
Saturday 8:19 AM
Since it was my crib, I went with toss 2-3
Inushtuk1
912 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 9:49 AM
Must be a catch somewhere.
joekayak
1722 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 11:17 AM
OK Ras!! We get it. 2-3 to the crib. Keep the diamond deuce to maybe go with one of the other diamonds to fake a flush.
Coeurdelion
4994 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Saturday 2:21 PM
Three likely choices here I think - 2-2-3-8H (7-8D), 2-7-8-8 (2-3) and perhaps 3-7-7-8 (2-2):

2-2-3-8H: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 10½pts

2-7-8-8: 6pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 12¾pts

3-7-8-8: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.72) = 11¾pts

Potential:

2-2-3-8H: Improves with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 5555, 777, 88 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 5555, 88 + 16xXs = 35 cuts.

2-7-8-8: Improves with 22, 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 10/12/14pts with 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 17 cuts.

3-7-8-8: Improves with 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 10/12pts with 4444, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 17 cuts.

Position:

We're both 2pts short of third street positional hole but we're there as Dealer and Pone is 18pts short of where they would like to be. So I think we can afford to play Offense.

Pegging:

I think 2-2-3-8 will peg best as it has 3 small cards and a middle card together with a magic eleven.

Summary:

2-7-8-8 is best for starting value by 2¼pt but 2-2-3-8 has many more cuts for improvement and 35 cuts for 8-12pts compared to 17 cuts for 10-14pts with 2-7-8-8. Also 2-2-3-8 should peg better so I think it will catch up the 2¼pts and I'll throw the 7-8D.
HalscribCLX
4721 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 2:25 PM
At 68*-68 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging (cautious offense) the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
2-2-3-8H___7.87+1.48+6.39=15.73____45.7____37.6
2-7-8-8____8.30+0.39+6.82=15.51____47.7____43.3
3-7-8-8____8.35+0.65+5.38=14.38____41.8____37.8

Optimal_______L4 %____L5 %
2-2-3-8H_______44.7____46.1
2-7-8-8________39.6____41.5
3-7-8-8________39.5____46.3

2-2-3-8H is best for expected averages by 0.22pt but in this board position approaching 3rd street positional hole Win/Loss %s are more important. 2-7-8-8 is appreciably best for Win %s and very much lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 2S-3 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Ras2829
4544 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 8:51 PM
Thought there would be more keeping 2-2-3-8H> Those are the cards with the greater combined value (pegs, potential hand and crib values). Only 20% made that choice. Even Coeurdelion and HalscribCLX are at odds as to the better choice. Choosing an offense strategy after seeing the starter card. Play on the lead, and take any pegs offered. Another day has come and gone. He who goes forth with a fifth on the fourth may not come forth on the fifth. Have a great Independence Day!