Friday 3:02 AM

Sorry Ras…hope it’s not you crib. Don’t want y’all gettin’ a heart attack.

   

Friday 3:06 AM

It’s only 2nd street. Lots of game yet to be played. Not time yet for a Hail Mary.

   

Friday 3:08 AM

Tough one today-just a little too early to go for the all or nothing decision-straddle the fence with this hold and live to fight the second half of the game

   

Friday 3:12 AM

I know 5-8 averages less than 5-5 to opponents crib. Both 5 and 8 are rather one-sided due to all the gappers I have. I could have held more and given more, but this appears to be a mid-level approach seeing dealer is ahead of position.

   

Friday 3:56 AM

Nearly half way through the game, we are Pone, and we are trailing by Ten Points. We are getting our butt kicked! It could be worse; it could be raining.

While we are on Second Street is a very bad place to be giving away Toss (5 5) or Toss (7 8). Other bad places to be giving away Toss (5 5) or Toss (7 8) include First Street, Third Street, and Fourth Street! And so, we should probably look for a Happy Medium to solve this dilemma (maybe she could invoke a miracle via séance to help us?).

Rather, I'm thinking Toss (5 8) unsuited may come to the rescue! We still get to enjoy the gooey goodness of a Double RUN, but hopefully, we don't buy or sell (or give away) the farm in the process.

After the Jack Cut, while the Dealer takes "Two for His Heels," we can only be glad that we didn't Toss (5 5) today. And after all, we are holding Ten Points for our cleverness.

We should definitely lead a 7 Card from our PAIR today.

Having become a bit tired and jaded by Wordle, and WordPlay, and Quordle, I was trying to solve Evil Wordle in fewer than Six Guesses, wondering if it can be done!?

My first approach was to "blanket" all the vowels by first guessing with three words such as: cairn, whole, gusty, etc., but those silly remaining consonants and double-letter solutions will sneak up on you almost every time!

Here, I will show how it took Seven Guesses to converge on the solution, where uppercase shows either Yellow (correct letter) or Green (correct letter AND correct placement), as I tried: ghost, luRky, bREad, wIpER, FInER, FIxER, FIVER. So, you can see how the "answer" almost becomes a "moving target" as you attempt to narrow it down.

It almost reminds me of how Quantum Mechanics works, when decoherence occurs, and the experiment wave ultimately collapses into a real, measurable solution. In theory, if only two letters "solve" the puzzle (as when I had either "FIXER" or "FIVER"), a guess should be correct 50% of the time, but with Evil Wordle, your first guess will be incorrect 100% of the time.

The "answer" in Evil Wordle seemingly keeps changing, like trying to assign fault or blame with a young kid, as the truth gets stretched by "plausible deniability" all the way through!

I got a little more adept after a few dozens of attempts, and solved it in Six Guesses a number of times: snark, clovE, might, Buffy, DwEEB, EBBED. (Yes, "Buffy" is a word; it's in the Scrabble Dictionary!). Or: blame, ghoSt, sNIpS, wINdy, rINkS, FINIS. Yeah, "Finis" is also a word -- who knew?

Therefore, my question remains without a proof: Can Evil Wordle be solved in fewer than Six Guesses? REF: https://swag.github.io/evil-wordle/

   

Friday 4:15 AM

It is the way.

   

Friday 4:17 AM

When I saw 5-6 discard as the leader, I had to look at the scores. 5-8 should be the more sensible pick here unless you want to roll the dice and toss 7-8. dec

   

Friday 4:36 AM

Elsewhere on the board I would toss 55. At this position, I am too weak-kneed to bet the farm. I hedged with 5-8. Lead the 7.

   

Friday 4:55 AM

Where was this hand one deal prior?

   

Friday 5:01 AM

I had a guy put 55 in my crib recently and it wasn't a disaster for him.

   

Friday 5:02 AM

Cutting for 24, keeping 12, 10 points behind.... damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead!

Lousy cut

   

Friday 5:21 AM

Agree with the hybrid approach at this point in the game. If in a desperate spot later in the contest might then sell out tossing 55.

   

Friday 5:37 AM

This game is about to get out of hand, with our opponent already dealing firmly ahead of 2nd street CPZ (43-47) already at hole 49. We have no concerns with dealing from there on the next deal...We have a concern, however that our opponent could be firmly into 3rd street CPZ by the next hand (let alone his deal 2 hands from now), onto the next street ahead of us and have a serious danger of being skunked at this point! So toss (5 5) is an absolute no-no...sure if we were lucky we could draw the 24-pt hand, but it does us little good if we give up an equal amount, as we will still be dealing from well short of 3rd street in all likelihood. (7 8) is a possibility, keeping the double run with the 2 fives, but even for me this is too risky, and I'm willing to short my hand by 4 pts in order to toss this instead of (5 5), then I'm thinking I might as well toss the (5 5) in the first place....So (5 8) it will have to be, which is a good deal safer than the (7 8), maintains an 8-pt double run and is guaranteed improvement with all 46 cuts...Of course we got the worst kind of improvement, a J cut, giving dealer yet another 2 holes separation on us, and only improving our hand by 2 pts as well, thus changing nothing....The next issue is what to lead. I guess it'll have to be the 7s and lets's focus on trying to keep dealer in our sights...We are in real trouble.

   

Friday 6:32 AM

Taking the strategy of trying to hold back opponent. This is definitely not the best net choice here. But my thought is that pulling opponent below the CPZ’s over the next several deals is the most likely way to get back into this game. They’re about +5 now. But 8-6 is aided by the delta from our 7-7 hold. Additionally, 5577 has a pretty nice chance of being 8+ points anyway. Going for a big hands doesn’t seem to especially help in this spot anyhow since we’d need 31+ to take position outright.

   

Friday 7:01 AM

I gotta keep a double run and no way am I passing 2 fives to the crib.

   

Friday 7:05 AM

If this sites computations are to be believed, the dealer has a 75%+ chance to win from this score. https://www.orbitals.com/cp/calc/tblwin.html

I like descriptive words like Jazz’s hybrid and dec’ s sensible for this discard/keep. Tossing pair of 5s…depending on situation I am willing to toss A-5, 2-5, 5-8 & 5-9. This keep gets cut help from 13/13 ranks.

   

Friday 7:10 AM

As painful as it may seem, choosing a defense strategy when ten points down offers the best opportunity to get in this game at some point. Lead the 7S (doesn't matter much which 7) as if dealer doesn't play next to the 7, plan to drop that lone 5 next. AS n/d, don't want to end up holding 5-6 with the lead. If dealer plays a mid- card on the 7 lead, will just have to grab a few pegs. If dealer plays a small card or X-pointer in
response, n/d will be able to wiggle out of pegging trouble.

   

Friday 7:14 AM

CONGRATS to 🥳Daniel Crete (dec0194/dec)🥳
*Internet Player of the Month*
with a total of 195 IRP's in Jun 2022. WTG Dan!👏

   

Friday 8:23 AM

There wasn't anything left to do toss the 5-5 to keep the runs in place and yes, it is early, also counting on probability may not get just the pair :(

   

Friday 1:01 PM

Actually had this similar hand. Because our Grass Roots club has a high hand pot, I tried for the 24 and sent 5-5 to the crib. I am not doing that again. Still had 12 in my hand the the dealer had at least 16 in the crib. Lesson learned.

   

Friday 2:04 PM

I think here we must play all out Defense so I'll discount 5-5 and 7-8. The most Defensive throw, taking account of the negative delta holding two 7s is 6-8 so I'll keep 5-5-7-7.

   

Friday 2:12 PM

At 39-49* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib___Total_____W5 %____W6 %
5D-6-7-7___11.65+1.46+(-5.85)= 2.78___5.2____10.7
6-7-7-8____14.83+1.22+(-9.61)= 2.59___9.0_____9.2
5-5-6-7____12.13+1.17+(-6.49)= 1.77___5.5_____9.8
5-6-7-8*____9.43+1.33+(-6.30)= 0.22___3.5_____7.9
5-5-7-7_____7.74+1.17+(-4.38)=(-0.14)__2.4_____8.6

Offense______L5 %____L6 %
5D-6-7-7______32.8____65.1
6-7-7-8_______44.2____71.4
5-5-6-7_______36.4____67.0
5-6-7-8*______34.8____68.0
5-5-7-7_______26.9____60.0

5D-6-7-7 is best for expected averages by 0.19pt. but 6-7-7-8 is slightly better for Win %s. In this board position where Dealer is 5pts past 2nd street positional hole and we're 5pts short so I think the Win/Loss %s are the more important factor. 5-5-7-7 is considerably lower than all the other hands for Loss %s while it is lower for Win %s by much less so even though I'm recommending Offense for the pegging I'll select 6-8 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead a 7 and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts.
7_________________1.18
5_________________1.14