July 1, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Bronco Smitty
39-49*  ?
34%
31%
26%
3%
2%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 232
Bronco SmittyTurn card was 10 hearts
Goatman
2203 votes

Joined: March 2017

 
 
 
Friday 3:02 AM
Sorry Ras…hope it’s not you crib. Don’t want y’all gettin’ a heart attack.
Ras2829 says: Hi Goatman: It's been quite a while since we got to play a game. If you suddenly appeared in Chehalis WA on crib night, just might toss you the 5-5 as a welcoming gesture. No kidding!
glmccuskey
3532 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Friday 3:06 AM
It’s only 2nd street. Lots of game yet to be played. Not time yet for a Hail Mary.
mrob2199
1025 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Friday 3:08 AM
Tough one today-just a little too early to go for the all or nothing decision-straddle the fence with this hold and live to fight the second half of the game
Sally3 says: It's sinking in :)
bbaer1
3122 votes

Joined: February 2011

 
 
 
Friday 3:12 AM
I know 5-8 averages less than 5-5 to opponents crib. Both 5 and 8 are rather one-sided due to all the gappers I have. I could have held more and given more, but this appears to be a mid-level approach seeing dealer is ahead of position.
JQT
3539 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:56 AM
Nearly half way through the game, we are Pone, and we are trailing by Ten Points. We are getting our butt kicked! It could be worse; it could be raining.

While we are on Second Street is a very bad place to be giving away Toss (5 5) or Toss (7 8). Other bad places to be giving away Toss (5 5) or Toss (7 8) include First Street, Third Street, and Fourth Street! And so, we should probably look for a Happy Medium to solve this dilemma (maybe she could invoke a miracle via séance to help us?).

Rather, I'm thinking Toss (5 8) unsuited may come to the rescue! We still get to enjoy the gooey goodness of a Double RUN, but hopefully, we don't buy or sell (or give away) the farm in the process.

After the Jack Cut, while the Dealer takes "Two for His Heels," we can only be glad that we didn't Toss (5 5) today. And after all, we are holding Ten Points for our cleverness.

We should definitely lead a 7 Card from our PAIR today.

Having become a bit tired and jaded by Wordle, and WordPlay, and Quordle, I was trying to solve Evil Wordle in fewer than Six Guesses, wondering if it can be done!?

My first approach was to "blanket" all the vowels by first guessing with three words such as: cairn, whole, gusty, etc., but those silly remaining consonants and double-letter solutions will sneak up on you almost every time!

Here, I will show how it took Seven Guesses to converge on the solution, where uppercase shows either Yellow (correct letter) or Green (correct letter AND correct placement), as I tried: ghost, luRky, bREad, wIpER, FInER, FIxER, FIVER. So, you can see how the "answer" almost becomes a "moving target" as you attempt to narrow it down.

It almost reminds me of how Quantum Mechanics works, when decoherence occurs, and the experiment wave ultimately collapses into a real, measurable solution. In theory, if only two letters "solve" the puzzle (as when I had either "FIXER" or "FIVER"), a guess should be correct 50% of the time, but with Evil Wordle, your first guess will be incorrect 100% of the time.

The "answer" in Evil Wordle seemingly keeps changing, like trying to assign fault or blame with a young kid, as the truth gets stretched by "plausible deniability" all the way through!

I got a little more adept after a few dozens of attempts, and solved it in Six Guesses a number of times: snark, clovE, might, Buffy, DwEEB, EBBED. (Yes, "Buffy" is a word; it's in the Scrabble Dictionary!). Or: blame, ghoSt, sNIpS, wINdy, rINkS, FINIS. Yeah, "Finis" is also a word -- who knew?

Therefore, my question remains without a proof: Can Evil Wordle be solved in fewer than Six Guesses? REF: https://swag.github.io/evil-wordle/
JQT says: It's maddening: shEar, bound, miLky, ExcEL, lEvEL, tEtEL, JEWEL! TETEL (noun): 1. A large african antelope (alcejaphus tora) with widely divergent, strongly ringed horns.
Eolus619 says: so yesterday…my wife and I worked our way on wordplay to the 6th guess and determined there was no other way then to chose the word ANIME..we looked it up in the dictionary ..it is a legit word..but we stumbled in to it
fentesk says: I had not met Evil Wordle before. For what it's worth, it is possible to get it in five, uncertain if you can get it in four. Separately I found a note that it has been "proven" for Wordle you can get any word in five guesses, but I didn't immediately come across said proof.
fentesk says: Eolus, I had a similar experience to you with UTILE, I've never seen it used anywhere in real life, but it was an answer for Quordle.
JQT says: Evil Wordle does repeat if you enter the same words IN THE SAME ORDER, so I'd love to see any five-word solution! What are the words?? I would be very impressed; I've spent quite some time on this! I might have to ease up, and go back to Quantum Electrodynamics! Yes, Wordle itself can ALWAYS be solved in Six (maybe even Five) guesses, but by trying to get it in just Two or Three, this will occasionally take you above SIX!
fentesk says: You can get a five guess answer using Ready, Block, and Swing as the first three guesses. I lost my daily Quordle streak by not following my own advice and taking two early guesses at a word I had the last four letters of and missing on both. At the end I got the other three but was down to a 50/50 on the last and guessed wrong. Had I accepted I wasn't getting a 3,4,5,6 and just guessed to limit choices I'd have been out with a 7 or 8.
JQT says: Yes, Wordle is quite easy to get in five or six if you don't try to get it in two or three! But just to be clear, my challenge today (above) is to solve ANY "EVIL Wordle" (a different game; not plain Wordle) puzzle in fewer than Six Guesses.
JQT says: Okay, fentesk: you are correct! ready, block, SwIng, SmITH, SHIFT. Brilliant!!
Bottomfeeder
157 votes

Joined: February 2022

 
 
 
Friday 4:15 AM
It is the way.
dec
5718 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:17 AM
When I saw 5-6 discard as the leader, I had to look at the scores. 5-8 should be the more sensible pick here unless you want to roll the dice and toss 7-8. dec
Sally3 says: HEYYYYYYYYY!!! Congrats on being June POM! See my post below, which is also on the ACC FB page :)
scottcrib says: Congrats Dan! I'm glad to have contributed to your success. :-)
dec says: Thank you Sally,Scott I had one very good week there that shot me up. Would love to translate that more to live play. dec
Gougie00
5094 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:36 AM
Elsewhere on the board I would toss 55. At this position, I am too weak-kneed to bet the farm. I hedged with 5-8. Lead the 7.
james500
3306 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Friday 4:55 AM
Where was this hand one deal prior?
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021

 
 
 
Friday 5:01 AM
I had a guy put 55 in my crib recently and it wasn't a disaster for him.
wasa
2422 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Friday 5:02 AM
Cutting for 24, keeping 12, 10 points behind.... damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead!

Lousy cut
Jazzselke
2140 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Friday 5:21 AM
Agree with the hybrid approach at this point in the game. If in a desperate spot later in the contest might then sell out tossing 55.
Sally3 says: *patting myself on the back* AM thinking like the big boys now lol. Am coming to your tourney in 2 weeks to win!(or at least meet expenses--my usal goal lol)
Jazzselke says: Also to win Canadian Doubles
Sally3 says: Well, of course since you ae my regular partner!
scottcrib says: Jealous!
MiketheExpert
502 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 5:37 AM
This game is about to get out of hand, with our opponent already dealing firmly ahead of 2nd street CPZ (43-47) already at hole 49. We have no concerns with dealing from there on the next deal...We have a concern, however that our opponent could be firmly into 3rd street CPZ by the next hand (let alone his deal 2 hands from now), onto the next street ahead of us and have a serious danger of being skunked at this point! So toss (5 5) is an absolute no-no...sure if we were lucky we could draw the 24-pt hand, but it does us little good if we give up an equal amount, as we will still be dealing from well short of 3rd street in all likelihood. (7 8) is a possibility, keeping the double run with the 2 fives, but even for me this is too risky, and I'm willing to short my hand by 4 pts in order to toss this instead of (5 5), then I'm thinking I might as well toss the (5 5) in the first place....So (5 8) it will have to be, which is a good deal safer than the (7 8), maintains an 8-pt double run and is guaranteed improvement with all 46 cuts...Of course we got the worst kind of improvement, a J cut, giving dealer yet another 2 holes separation on us, and only improving our hand by 2 pts as well, thus changing nothing....The next issue is what to lead. I guess it'll have to be the 7s and lets's focus on trying to keep dealer in our sights...We are in real trouble.
MiketheExpert says: And Happy Canada Day to all my fellow Canadians!!
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks Mike. And you.
Samgash33
127 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Friday 6:32 AM
Taking the strategy of trying to hold back opponent. This is definitely not the best net choice here. But my thought is that pulling opponent below the CPZ’s over the next several deals is the most likely way to get back into this game. They’re about +5 now. But 8-6 is aided by the delta from our 7-7 hold. Additionally, 5577 has a pretty nice chance of being 8+ points anyway. Going for a big hands doesn’t seem to especially help in this spot anyhow since we’d need 31+ to take position outright.
MiketheExpert says: Interesting one, Sam. I do agree fully with your last statement, and on the actual cut today on CHOD, the (6 8) could be a very good balker against the J, and me holding 2 7's in the hand. I just can't bring myself to make an 8-pt hand sacrifice with the possibility of no hand improvement on the (5 5 7 7), though. We are down by 10 pts without the deal, and we can basically call it a wrap right here if we only get 4 pts out of this sucker.
Ras2829 says: HI Samgash33: Brilliant and you picked up two strong supporting voices in Coeurdelion and HalscribCLX.
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Friday 7:01 AM
I gotta keep a double run and no way am I passing 2 fives to the crib.
Eolus619
726 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Friday 7:05 AM
If this sites computations are to be believed, the dealer has a 75%+ chance to win from this score. https://www.orbitals.com/cp/calc/tblwin.html

I like descriptive words like Jazz’s hybrid and dec’ s sensible for this discard/keep. Tossing pair of 5s…depending on situation I am willing to toss A-5, 2-5, 5-8 & 5-9. This keep gets cut help from 13/13 ranks.
Ras2829
4544 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Friday 7:10 AM
As painful as it may seem, choosing a defense strategy when ten points down offers the best opportunity to get in this game at some point. Lead the 7S (doesn't matter much which 7) as if dealer doesn't play next to the 7, plan to drop that lone 5 next. AS n/d, don't want to end up holding 5-6 with the lead. If dealer plays a mid- card on the 7 lead, will just have to grab a few pegs. If dealer plays a small card or X-pointer in
response, n/d will be able to wiggle out of pegging trouble.
Ras2829 says: After seeing the Jack starter card, sure glad held back one of those fives.
Sally3
251 votes

Joined: October 2021

 
 
 
Friday 7:14 AM
CONGRATS to 🥳Daniel Crete (dec0194/dec)🥳
*Internet Player of the Month*
with a total of 195 IRP's in Jun 2022. WTG Dan!👏
Duby86
77 votes

Joined: May 2022

 
 
 
Friday 8:23 AM
There wasn't anything left to do toss the 5-5 to keep the runs in place and yes, it is early, also counting on probability may not get just the pair :(
winesteward48
272 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 1:01 PM
Actually had this similar hand. Because our Grass Roots club has a high hand pot, I tried for the 24 and sent 5-5 to the crib. I am not doing that again. Still had 12 in my hand the the dealer had at least 16 in the crib. Lesson learned.
Coeurdelion
4994 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Friday 2:04 PM
I think here we must play all out Defense so I'll discount 5-5 and 7-8. The most Defensive throw, taking account of the negative delta holding two 7s is 6-8 so I'll keep 5-5-7-7.
HalscribCLX
4721 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Friday 2:12 PM
At 39-49* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib___Total_____W5 %____W6 %
5D-6-7-7___11.65+1.46+(-5.85)= 2.78___5.2____10.7
6-7-7-8____14.83+1.22+(-9.61)= 2.59___9.0_____9.2
5-5-6-7____12.13+1.17+(-6.49)= 1.77___5.5_____9.8
5-6-7-8*____9.43+1.33+(-6.30)= 0.22___3.5_____7.9
5-5-7-7_____7.74+1.17+(-4.38)=(-0.14)__2.4_____8.6

Offense______L5 %____L6 %
5D-6-7-7______32.8____65.1
6-7-7-8_______44.2____71.4
5-5-6-7_______36.4____67.0
5-6-7-8*______34.8____68.0
5-5-7-7_______26.9____60.0

5D-6-7-7 is best for expected averages by 0.19pt. but 6-7-7-8 is slightly better for Win %s. In this board position where Dealer is 5pts past 2nd street positional hole and we're 5pts short so I think the Win/Loss %s are the more important factor. 5-5-7-7 is considerably lower than all the other hands for Loss %s while it is lower for Win %s by much less so even though I'm recommending Offense for the pegging I'll select 6-8 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead a 7 and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts.
7_________________1.18
5_________________1.14