June 30, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by MiketheExpert
52*-57  ?
63%
28%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 260
Goatman
2203 votes

Joined: March 2017

 
 
 
Thursday 3:03 AM
Might catch a K tossed to my crib. Like the pegging of this keep. Don’t like K9 to my crib so no flush for me.
Gougie00
5094 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:21 AM
Not seeing much I like on this menu. Ordering the chicken. Maybe the pone tossed me a wayward Queen?

Dilemma because I am not seeing a path to a lot of pegging.

Had hail here last night in Massachusetts.
mrob2199
1025 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 3:35 AM
With a bad hand such as this the best strategy is just try to squeeze every last drop of value -pegging included-and then try to make up the pegs later in the game-this hood enables us to keep a 2 point hand with a magic eleven for pegging-while discarding a pair of kings which often turns into a 6 point crib with 3 kings
Sally3 says: We have a new strategy--the "hood" ;)
mrob2199 says: Haha I like that!!!!
dec
5718 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:47 AM
K-9 discard no thanks. Best way I can see how to play this minimal hand. Defense and halfway on a face card double run in the crib. No hunches for me. dec
Ras2829
4544 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 4:04 AM
Half the time dealer just dumps the "garbage" to the crib. So, that's the case this day. Choosing an optimal strategy to include the pegging, iot pays to flush. The potential hand value is so superior to any other holding that tossing 9-K is good. Combined values favor the flush by about 2.5 points. The 9-K averages 3.071 and K-K weighs in at 4.298. That does not make up the difference in points the flush offers. With n/d at 57, minimize pegs on that side of the board and take pegs that seem safe (cautious offense as Coeurdelion often labels it). Choosing an optimal strategy, pegs are net; so, dealer doesn't average a full peg with either hold.
Nelson says: Didn't see that coming, thanks for the lesson Ras. Pays to flush AND to memorize averages 😎
Samgash33
127 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Thursday 4:18 AM
Enjoy the last day of Q2 everyone!
Ras2829 says: Hi Samgash33: Does Q2 stand for second quarter? Or is it one of the new gender symbols?
Ras2829 says: Hi Samgash33: Does Q2 stand for second quarter? Or is it one of the new gender symbols?
Gougie00 says: Pretty sure Q2 is 2nd quarter of the year. Enjoying the heat and sunshine, but not much else.
Gougie00 says: Pretty sure Q2 is 2nd quarter of the year. Enjoying the heat and sunshine, but not much else.
MiketheExpert says: I hope so. At least in my regular job that is how we represent the quarters in a year. Because it sounds pretty ominous if it means the last day for a gender, haha!
MiketheExpert says: I hope so. At least in my regular job that is how we represent the quarters in a year. Because it sounds pretty ominous if it means the last day for a gender, haha!
JQT
3539 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 4:46 AM
Our Crib is gone to the dogs! FLUSH more than makes up for the Split-PEAR. Let's hope Pone tossed Ten-Queen today.
Jazzselke
2140 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 4:55 AM
Lower hand value than the flush, but with the pone at 57, the Magic 11 seems valuable at this particular position. Any help with the cut would be appreciated (like the Jack with this puzzle), as getting to Hole 70/71 for our next deal could be challenging with this uninspiring deal.
mfetchCT425
1149 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 5:02 AM
Flush was close for me, but I don’t like 9-K to our own crib. Holding a combined 4 this way with better pegging potential and the pair of kings may make something in the crib as pone often dumps a lone K or Q there (and both with Q-K).
james500
3306 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Thursday 5:27 AM
Showing my contrarian colours today.
2-K-4 sixteen might be useful.
MiketheExpert says: So contrarian that it is the only vote as of 11 ET :0)...I expected it to be the 4th most populous choice behind the flush, (K K), and (2 4). I'm sure somebody may join forces with you!
MiketheExpert
502 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 5:43 AM
At first glance, I have to admit being tempted to toss those K's into the crib, being left with both a "magic 11" and "sweet 16" combo in hand for the pegging....Then I examined things a little closer. What are you in fact gaining by this? What are you hoping to hit by tossing a pair of K's? Probably another K thrown by pone (as a K on the cut does not even improve this hand), of which the odds are already 50% lower as there is only 2 left in the deck. So say you do get that K. You are left with (2 4 9 J) - (K K K ?). This adds up to a total of 2 (hand) + 6(crib) = 8 off the bat before the cut assuming it has been tossed by pone. Let's say you kept our club flush instead (assuming that pone again tossed a K (2 4 J K) - (K 9 K ?). What does this amount to? This amounts to 6 pts already (just 2 pts less), and if the K happened to be the cut instead (remember only 2 left in the deck), this amounts to the same number of points (a 6-pt) crib flush + at least 2 in the crib than if you had tossed the pair of K's! All in all, does this appear to warrant lowering the starting value of your hand by 2 pts, as well as losing the 0.2 pt for any cut card by keeping the flush instead? In my opinion, the potential loss in hand value by doing so does not justify the means (potential gain) by just examining the raw numbers. So, toss the lowly (9 K) instead, and continue with our optimal strategy in this middle-of-nowhere position to try and catch up our points. (2 4 9 J) is a SLIGHTLY stronger pegging hand, but in comparison to expected value of the hand flush, nowhere near enough to tip the scales in my opinion.
MiketheExpert says: Also surprised that only 1% of the voting to this point garnered the keep of (9 J K K), and the throw of (2 4) into your own crib, which appears to have not been considered by the majority of all commenters (although rightly so :-) I thought that with the potential of a favorable cut and the ability for small cards to explode in the crib (it is probably fairly close in value to the KK, which is 13th among pair discards into your own crib), this may have been looked at and selected by close to 10%..And would the people who have otherwise picked this eventually landed on the correct flush, or chose to have thrown the pair of K's instead...Always interested in trying to read what people's thoughts are in arriving at their ultimate decision!
Ras2829 says: Hi MiketheExpert: Fine puzzle and so far only 24% have chosen the flush. Interested in what HalscribCLX shows this day.
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 5:48 AM
fentesk
598 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 6:19 AM
Looked at the Ks initially, but while the 2-4-9-J benefits from low cuts (A-6), there is only a single cut (3c) that even gets to 8 points.

That pushes me to the flush and the unfortunate K-9 discard, but you can't always have a great crib toss.
Sally3
251 votes

Joined: October 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 6:54 AM
Going with the big boys on this ugly hand.
Sally3 says: I meant, their opinions.
Ras2829 says: HI Sally3 - Thought you were promising the big boys "the night of their life!"
Sally3 says: ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh RAS..don't give them any more ideas!
Eolus619
726 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Thursday 6:59 AM
hmmmm…current relative score is not a good board position for being first to deal @ 70+. And this hand does not help me. In fact if the cycle averages hold up for current Pone he/she could be at or near 84 after the next hand while I’m struggling in the 70s. Going the flush route today. Most frequent Pone discard to crib involves a K..and my keep gets cut help from 10/13 ranks..
wasa
2422 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Thursday 10:13 AM
It pays to flush
MiketheExpert says: Would have been disappointed if you of all people, wasa, did not come up with the flush as the answer today, lol:). Your name is synonymous with the phrase = "pays to flush" in my book.
wasa says: Hi Mike. It's true! When in doubt, flush! I will admit to being influenced by RAS's YouTube videos, as well as his online classes (Class 1 Part 9 -Remember to Flush). I do admit that there are times when it does not pay to flush, but those are rare in my books (obviously not tossing my opponent 5-5, 2-3, 5-J etc just to keep a flush!)
Nelson
39 votes

Joined: June 2022

 
 
 
Thursday 2:27 PM
Kings will hopefully pick up a friend from pone or a Queen to go with that Jack cut. Magic eleven and a three card sweet 16 will come in handy for the play. After looking at Ras and Mike's reasoning, I will adjust mine going forward. Love this site as I'm always learning.
Coeurdelion
4994 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Thursday 2:57 PM
I think it's between the flush and 2-4-9-J (K-K):

2-4-J-KC: 4pts + 3pts (Schell: 3.06) = 7pts

2-4-9-J: 2pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.58) = 6¾pts

Potential:

2-4-J-KC: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 999, JJJ, QQQQ, KK = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 7/8/11pts with AAAA, 3333, 5555, QQQQ = 16 cuts. Plus 9 club cuts for 1pt for his nob and 1pt for the flush = 2x9/46 = 0.39pt.

2-4-9-K: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 6666, 999. KK = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 6/7pts with 222, 3333, 444, 999 = 13 cuts.

Position:

Pone is 3pts short of where they would like to be and we're only likely to be at 68pts after this deal. So I think we must play Offense.

Pegging:

I think both these hands will peg quite well. 2-4-9-K has a magic eleven and the flush will be hard to read.

Summary:

2-4-J-KC has the better starting value by ¼pt but it also has an extra approx. 0.4pt for a club cut. Also it has a few more cuts for improvement and 16 cuts for 7-11pts compared to 13 cuts for 6/7pts. So I'll throw the 9-KH.
HalscribCLX
4721 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:03 PM
At 52*-57 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging (cautious offense) and the Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total___W5 %____W6 %
2-4-J-KC___6.57+0.28+2.91=9.76____25.6____38.4
2-4-9-J____4.33+0.76+4.45=9.53____24.2____37.0

Optimal______L5 %____L6 %
2-4-J-KC______38.0____45.0
2-4-9-J_______38.0____46.5

The flush is better for expected averages by 0.23pt. and is slightly better for Win %s and lower for Loss %s so I'll select 9-KH to discard. After the J cut I'll play SAFE to the lead.
wasa says: It still pays to flush! :-)
jmudge
467 votes

Joined: July 2020

 
 
 
Thursday 5:42 PM
Oh snap didn't see the flush at all!