June 28, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by jmath714
62*-61  ?
61%
35%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 242
jmath714AA vs J5 are the main options, but I’m curious if the upside of J665 is worth it, plus the defensive options seem better on J665 as well. That’s why I eventually selected AA. For those interested in results bias, I cut a 2, pegged 9 and had a 10 crib. (Opponent held 69KK and led a K)
JQT
3539 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:00 AM
We are the Dealer at Hole 62, currently edging out our Opponent by One Point, yet Pone does threaten to reach the Third Street Par Hole 70 by completion of this deal.

We could view this as a "short" game on a board where the race is to Sixty-One Holes, or we might view this as a relay race after the second passing of the batons has just occurred.

Those of you who have ever played the wonderful "short" game of Cribbage know just how quickly Sixty-One Points can be traversed! It's a sprint to the Finish Line! Like a 100-metre dash in track, or a 50-metre swim, many athletes hold their breath nearly throughout.

We could either Toss (A A), or Toss (6 6), or Toss (5 J) today. Keep (5 6 6 J) and Toss (A A) allows us to keep the 5-6-6 trio together. Keep (A A 6 6) and Toss (5 J) looks interesting for the pegging, and powerful for the Crib.

Keep (A A 5 J) and Toss (6 6) might peg the most, and yet I have concerns about the Crib. Thus, I'm going to relegate Toss (6 6) to receive a Bronze Medal and move into Third Place.

Toss (5 J) is the natural inclination, and I'm looking for any compelling reason(s) why we wouldn't stay on the main path today. It's only "hopeful" points when we keep the 5-6-6 together, and these cards can often stand "on their own" as well as they do together.

Let's Toss (5 J) and get this show on the road!

After the Queen of Hearts Cut, we now still have just Four Points in our Hand, and yet prospects for a great Crib.

It's Day 30 (in a row) at Wordle, and I am getting to that place where I could either lose interest in all of these word games, or have my streak finally get broken.

I almost wiped my streak off the map by accident, not by missing in six guesses, but as I regularly clean my computer and reboot every few weeks, it dawned on me that I had probably also wiped clean the logs for this game.

It was only through luck I believe that I had already placed The NY Times in my "save cookies" list, and I believe this saved my records from extinction!

After a full week of Daily Games, and numerous Practice Games, I am still undefeated in Quordle, but I just 'squeaked by' today with 6, 9, 5, 4, or a Total of 24.

I nearly got WordPlay in two tries again, and this would have beaten my all-time best score of 93. I had to finally settle for 3/6, tied with my second-best score of 81. Ref: https://wordplay.com/shr/997605290
JQT says: Puzzle contributor, jmath714, said Pone in the original game had (6 9 K K), from which Pone led a King. I would usually save the High PAIR for last during the pegging, and lead a 6 Card from such a hand, unless it was a very unusual relative position. This hand got me to wondering, as Cribbage Hands always do, since I usually try to guess what a player put in my Crib before looking, and I was thinking perhaps Toss (A T) was the discard. After the Deuce Cut in the original game, a Pone with (6 9 K K) would have Four Points. On our side of the board, it would make Toss (5 J) today provide a Hand of Eight Points and a Crib of Four Points (Five Points if the Deuce Cut was a Heart Suit) for a Total of 12 or 13; and it would make Toss (A A) today provide a Hand of Four Points (Five Points if the Deuce Cut was a Heart Suit) and a Crib of Eight Points for a Total of 12 or 13; and it would make Toss (6 6) today provide a Hand of Four Points (Five Points if the Deuce Cut was a Heart Suit) and a Crib of Four Points for a Total of 8 or 9. However, the puzzle poster says that the Crib in the original game was Ten Points, so my "guess" of Toss (A T) can be ruled out! What did Pone therefore discard in the original game? Thus, to state the question: the Crib (A A ? ?) must equal Ten Points after a Deuce Cut, and yet the two unknowns must be two cards that Pone would normally get rid of when it leaves (6 9 K K) behind. Calculate the two unknown cards. I'll leave it for some homework!
scottcrib says: Maybe pone tossed 3-4.
JQT says: Good! (A A 3 8) with a Deuce Cut also works and equals 10.
Goatman
2203 votes

Joined: March 2017

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:01 AM
Like the 5J in my crib.
Gougie00
5094 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:53 AM
a 4 in 39 chance of cutting a 4. If I was way down I would have tried for it. In this case face-five. Can always count on the pone to toss faces in the crib.
dec
5718 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:05 AM
Like tennis hoping opponent can make a forced error. Backhand defense on the lead. dec
Sally3 says: Congrats on placing second in 2 ACC tournies over the weekend, Dan--one at each online site :)
mrob2199
1025 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:06 AM
Like to play the odds here and have the chance for multiple cuts helping my hand or crib-there is a very good chance of parlaying the aces for at least 3 as well
fentesk
598 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:13 AM
Broke up the 5-6-6 for the strong discard while keeping 4 points in hand.
mfetchCT425
1149 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:47 AM
I think the 5-J here is too strong a discard with this arrangement of cards to pass up. The double pair with the aces could generate some pegs in the right configuration of pone cards.
james500
3306 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:14 AM
Try to keep the Aces for as long as possible. Maybe I can get them in back to back.
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:20 AM
Hmmm...surprised to be the lone ranger today.
Jazzselke
2140 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:37 AM
Generally I am not crazy about aces to the crib, especially when I can throw J5. However, in this game we are out of position, and the cut of a 4 produces a 14 hand, with great potential for the crib. And our host Jason details the pegging possibilities. If we were in solid position on the board I would toss the J5.
Jazzselke says: The display of my cards should be 566J.
Jazzselke says: The display of my cards should be 566J.
wasa
2422 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:48 AM
Hate throwing pairs into my crib (exception - 5-5) so the J-5 jumps out at me today. Second best toss (although I'm wrong, I love the 2-3 combo to my crib more than the J-5). Surprised (as of 8:47 EDT) most voters tossed the A-A, although most commenters tossed the J-5.
wasa says: Well, I'm wrong about being wrong! It looks like 2-3 is better than 5-J to your own crib. Great article here http://cribbageforum.com/YourCrib.htm
Eolus619
726 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:08 AM
62*-61…78-71*…88*-87…104-97*…114*-113…You can see the problem current Pone has with regard to board position..If thei cycle averages hold up, Pone is on the wrong side of the cycle as to who counts first above 111. I like the power of J-5 to my crib. There will be two more hands when current Pone will deal..that is where I likely will have to play “D” when discarding & pegging.
Jazzselke says: Pone counts first from 113...
JQT says: Cribbage Par Holes are 18, 44, 70, and 96, and the first player to DEAL from each of these targets has the Positional Advantage. Our current game score is Hole 62, and so we are Eight Holes 'short' of the Third Street Par Hole 70, and Pone's average of Ten Holes will allow our Opponent to be the first Dealer at or beyond the next Par Hole. In Summary: Memorize those four targets, and you can infer ALL positional information necessary without having to extrapolate.
MiketheExpert
502 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:13 AM
We are in a tricky relative position, kind of in no man's land, and I'm just as concerned with preventing my opponent's forward movement as my own. Never fear, it seems one choice in particular can satisfy both objectives today. I get to throw a top star discard (5 J) in my crib, and hold onto 2 separate pairs a few ranks apart (A A 6 6), one of my favorite things to do in exactly these types of situations. The safety in numbers hold of keeping these cards makes hands like this perform very well when looking to slow your neighbor down, and often quite well on the offensive end as well when in need of a big score...Granted it is not the BEST possible pegging keep to leave together, (especially upon a 4 lead by pone), however all ranks except a 4, 5, or face card grant this hand improvement, and combined with the power of (5 J) in the crib, I think it more than compensates for the bingo cut holding (5 6 6 J) and magic 11, which are both good attributes to consider for getting rid of those aces.
Sally3
251 votes

Joined: October 2021

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:19 AM
I hate throwing aces to my crib and losing them, but I see more cuts this way.
Duby86
77 votes

Joined: May 2022

 
 
 
Tuesday 8:12 AM
I too liked the 5J in my crib
Ras2829
4544 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 10:07 AM
Choosing an offense strategy, the 5-J jumps out as the correct discard choice. Certainly 5-6-6-J has highest potential hand score. The value of that hand just is overwhelmed by the crib value of 5-J. My empirical data shows 5-J discard to own crib 7.088 based on 1,678 tosses. The Cribbage Prof show that average to be 6.91. Thus the 5-J fills in all those 10-Q, Q-K discards (highly favored choices of n/d if tossing X-pointers when 10-K not present). So, the 5-j scores 8 or more nearly half the time (47.138%). Been missing y'all the past four days as played the Independence Day Classic in Reno. Must have been the smallest ever with 112 players. Went down with 3 bills (electric, telephone, and homeowners' insurance); returned with 32 bills (room, 7 service station stops, etc.) Just a bit of subterfuge intended for the IRS in case they look for tax evasion on this site. My money clip spring nearly broke from such pressure. For those who play video poker, had A-A-A-A-2 three times, numerous other fours of kind, and knocked off a Royal Flush in clubs about the time was fixing to go to bed Sunday evening. Had one nice string in Cribbage winning 7 in a row with two skunks. Got knocked out in playoff rounds early. Greg Schleusner who beat me went on to win the tournament playing Winona Mc Daniels in the finals. Nice to rejoin the fold
Ras2829 says: After seeing the starter card Queen, with the 5-J on the table, could be an easy nine or more in the crib. So will downshift to an optimal strategy and take pegs that look reasonably safe. With n/d at hole 61, dealer position is precarious; So, want to avoid giving up triples or runs.
Inushtuk1
912 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 12:24 PM
I too went with the (5-J). I always like to turn it around, and ask myself what I would do if I had this hand as the other guy. I'm afraid I would have to keep 5-6-6-J(A-A) as the Pone, at the score of 61-62*; even though I know Dealer's second favourite toss is (2-3). Yikes.
Coeurdelion
4994 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Tuesday 12:52 PM
I think it's between 5-6-6-J (A-A) and A-A-6-6 (5-J):

5-6-6-J: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 9¼pts

A-A-6-6: 4pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 11pts

Potential:

5-6-6-J: Improves with 3333, 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 8/10/14pts with 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 9999, JJJ = 20 cuts. Plus 12 heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

A-A-6-6: Improves with AA, 3333, 66, 7777, 8888, 9999 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 8/12pts with AA, 66, 7777, 8888, 9999 = 16 cuts.

Position:

Pone only needs 9pts to reach third street positional hole while we need 24pts to put us in a good position to reach fourth street positional hole at the end of next deal. This is unlikely so I think we should play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think the two pairs will peg better.

Summary:

A-A-6-6 has the better starting value by 1¾pts but 5-6-6-J also has an extra approx. ¼pt for nob potential. This still leaves A-A-6-6 1½pts ahead. 5-6-6-J has many mor cuts for improvement with 20 cuts for 8-14pts while A-A-6-6 has 20 cuts for 8/12pts. So although 5-6-6-J has better potential because I think we should play Defense and A-A-6-6 will peg better playing Defense I'll throw the 5-J to our crib.
HalscribCLX
4721 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 12:53 PM
At 62*-61 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
A-A-6-6____6.35+0.96+6.91=14.22____18.1____38.2
5-6-6-J____7.39+1.39+5.11=13.90____17.1____36.2
A-A-5-J____6.52+1.22+5.59=13.33____16.2____36.4

Optimal_______L4 %____L5 %
A-A-6-6________16.7____42.0
5-6-6-J________17.3____43.2
A-A-5-J________16.6____43.0

A-A-6-6 is best for expected averages by 0.32pt. over 5-6-6-J and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 5-J to discard.

After the QH cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).