August 3, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0*-0  ?
45%
45%
35%
35%
16%
16%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 231
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4515 votes)

Monday 3:04 AM
No doubt, those who prefer Toss (T J) here will like this alternative for the pegging prospects.

And I would too, except that as First Dealer, our primary focus should be on DEFENSE rather than on OFFENSE, in order to preserve our advantage as the First Dealer of the game.

And Toss (T J) surely wouldn't be a mistake, or rather not a large mistake, not like Toss (2 2) would be. Touching cards such as Toss (T J) or Toss (7 8) should almost always be preferred over throwing PAIRS into our Own Crib.

And thus, I'll settle easily upon Toss (7 8) today, certainly with its less intense pegging, but its much more stalwart approach, given the requirements of our POSITION.
Eolus619 says: Morning...yesterday and today has been interesting to me because it seems to me to involve RAS small hand rule. Based on my understanding of Ras small hand rule & sacrifice limits the way to go today is to discard the 10-J. I understand your comment about position and defense. Others about pegging. My thinking is to try to get to at least 7 combined points on first deal. If you , or others , would care to comment on the small hand rule,.....particularly when to and when NOT to apply it I would appreciate it .
SallyAnn3 says: Good morning. I would love to hear more about applying the small hand rule as well. Thanks :)
Jazzselke says: The small hand rule is if less than 8 points, do not give up points; and give full consideration to combined values of hand/crib.
Jazzselke says: Here is a good example that might not be obvious:A23568. Keep the A238, knowing that 56 is a strong discard and is assured of at least 2 points. Or 23668X, do not keep the 3 with 668X; throw the potent 23 to the crib.
Eolus619 says: Yes...understand....it does seem straight forward to me .....but some very experienced players have chosen not to follow that in the last two days...it may boil down to a “feel” for the game at a point in time//position ..although in Ras’s class he speaks to being guided by % not hunches
Eolus619 says: Yes....thanks for the example ..after your explanation It is clear to me...last two days very experienced players are splitting up the points ..two in hand two to the crib.today....and not following the rule for the reasons given ..so I gues it “depends” which is also understandable
Jazzselke says: There are exceptions to every rule, and as you say position can be an important consideration. For example, if you are behind you may have to go for a gut-shot hit by giving up points.
Jazzselke says: In today's example you are not violating the rule to throw 78. You still have an assured 4 points COMBINED. The 4 points don't have to stay in the hand. So it's understandable why you asked the question. Hope that helps.
Eolus619 says: thanks for the explanations ...with what you have written and another watch of Ras class on sacrifice limits and small hand i should be good to go
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2239 votes)

Monday 3:12 AM
Agree with you John on position (first dealer, defense) but chose to toss T-J to our crib. This hand holds more cuts for improvement.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6854 votes)

Monday 3:33 AM
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 that covers a lot of cuts there. J-10 a winner in my book for a discard. That eleven count could be defensive or maybe peg on those twos. dec
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4344 votes)

Monday 3:50 AM
Pone has a strong bias against discarding fives and Jacks, which has a negative effect on the growth potential of an X-X discard.

Fuelled by cynicism, I'll choose 7-8.
james500 says: Putting all my "eggs" in the "anti X-X basket", two times out of three, the cut won't be an X card either. In today's example, 14/46 are X, so 32/46 are not. Aren't I going to look foolish when 10-J is shown to be optimal later on?!
Jazzselke says: Agree that there is a bias against throwing fives and Jack's. However, QK is a somewhat common throw, top 10 in terms of frequency.
Rosemarie44 says: Mentioned yesterday about bias against receiving five or jacks from opponent. J-Q (best) followed by T-J to our crib.
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4483 votes)

Monday 3:54 AM
I like the pegging value of 2-2-7,
thelawnet

Joined: January 2020 (262 votes)

Monday 4:42 AM
keep the good peggers. dump the JT which is doing nothing here.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6170 votes)

Monday 4:43 AM
I've been tossing middle cards from crappy hands like this for years. I might learn something today.
Andy (muesli64)

Joined: August 2009 (2340 votes)

Monday 4:58 AM
As per JQT
zeke76

Joined: August 2018 (1531 votes)

Monday 5:06 AM
Two choice day—not sure which is best.
mrob2199

Joined: February 2009 (1696 votes)

Monday 5:43 AM
The pegging flexibility of the 2-2-7-8 makes this the correct hold IMO-this hand pegs well versus middle card or picture card holds pone could have-the Q cut gives us a pretty realistic shot at an 8 point crib
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1759 votes)

Monday 5:55 AM
I tossed the 10-J. I am trying to get to at least 7 on first deal. This discard gives me 30 cuts to gain combined points in my hand + crib to get there
Eolus619 says: I miss counted...yikes ...actually 42 cuts
mfetchCT425

Joined: February 2009 (1632 votes)

Monday 6:16 AM
Not only do I like the pegging potency of this hand (this 3 card magic 11 will often garner a 31-4), but also like the potential for decent improvement in the count of this hand after the cut. This discard option allows us to keep touching cards in both the hand and crib which often will result in a nice hand/crib combo.
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1196 votes)

Monday 6:51 AM
RubyTuesday says: I meant to put 7 8 in my crib!
Mark6

Joined: June 2020 (702 votes)

Monday 7:13 AM
Kept the High and Moderate Value Peggers
SallyAnn3

Joined: March 2020 (1253 votes)

Monday 7:49 AM
First hand...opp might throw me something good to get a move on, so points and touching cards to the crib...touching cards held. Not much help either decision.
joekayak

Joined: May 2016 (1877 votes)

Monday 7:51 AM
Ras puzzle. 11 from heaven points the way.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2865 votes)

Monday 7:52 AM
I used to always throw 78 from this or a similar hand. But the pegging prospects are bright here, and also have learned the value of 10J or JQ to the crib. However, if I am behind in position, I may opt for 78 and hope for a 12 point crib.
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3389 votes)

Monday 8:22 AM
Better pegging, more cuts help my hand, tossing a J to my crib. What's not to like?
cribbagepogo

Joined: October 2007 (3302 votes)

Monday 10:26 AM
Beside pegging a fair amount to be gained by 5 or 6 cut as well as 789. Pone more prone to throw 10/K or the such.
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Monday 3:32 PM
The hand breaks naturally with 3 discards 2-2, 7-8 and 10-J:

7-8-10-J: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.71) = 7¾pts

2-2-10-J: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 8½pts

2-2-7-8: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.61) = 8¾pts

Potential:

7-8-10-J: Improves with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 5/6/7pts with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, QQQQ = 22 cuts. Plus 10 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

2-2-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 22, 3333, 5555, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 5/6/7/10pts with AAAA, 22, 3333, 5555, 9999, QQQQ = 22 cuts. Plus 10 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

2-2-7-8: Improves with 22, 3333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 7/8/11pts with all cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is at 8pts so I'll play Defense but hope to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

With a 3-card magic eleven and two low cards and two middle cards I believe 2-2-7-8 will peg best but playing Defense 2-2-10-J will peg well too.

Summary:

All the hands have 28 cuts for improvement and 2-2-7-8 has the best starting value by ¼pt with all cuts for improvement achieving 7-11pts. It also should peg well so I'll throw 10-J.
dgergens

Joined: January 2018 (940 votes)

Monday 4:06 PM
Normally, I'd put 7,8 in and gamble on my crib, but today there was a 3 card 11, and I just wasn't feeling it.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5702 votes)

Monday 4:13 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense__Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-2-10-J__4.57+(-2.13)+6.68=9.12____33.4____47.2
2-2-7-8___6.26+(-2.00)+4.48=8.74____32.3____45.8
7-8-10-J__4.30+(-2.22)+5.61=7.69____30.3____43.6

Defense_____L9 %____L10 %
2-2-10-J_____25.0____26.1
2-2-7-8______26.0____27.6
7-8-10-J_____26.7____29.7

2-2-10-J is best for expected averages by 0.38pt and is appreciably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Monday 4:49 PM
Submitted this puzzle as it is very sensitive to strategy chosen. As dealer of first hand, it's def., def., def. Given that the 7-8 to crib adds value to crib size, pegging of opponent is deduced from score. Once those adjustments are made, the 2-2-10-J has the upper hand only if playing a defense pegging strategy. At other places on the board where offense strategy (perhaps even optimal) the 2-2-7-8 would be the way to go. Will play off the lead although would pair a deuce. Would play the 10 spot on a King lead and would split the deuces on any other X-point lead.