Wednesday 3:02 AM

If we could somehow get close to a Dozen Holes further down that board, we might become Next Dealer at or beyond Hole 96, which seems a lofty goal.

Normally, Two PAIRS is not Too Terrible, but the nature of Keep (4 4 6 6) is either "hit or miss" and it strongly depends upon a 5 Card Cut.

Toss (2 6) would still leave us with Four Points assured, but it responds well to 50% more Cuts, including a 5 card, only instead of Twenty-Four Points, we would only have Sixteen Points. But that meets our objective!

Toss (2 6) should be no more dangerous than Toss (2 7), and yet we get significant help from not just a 5 Card Cut, but a 4 Card Cut as well. And we also avoid the risky Toss (4 4).

Keep (2 6 6 7) is tempting, but it appears to me that it's tempting fate in a perilous position. Therefore, let's try Toss (2 6) and lead a 4 Card as if it were the only one we had!

   

Wednesday 3:26 AM

Today toss 44 gives us the strongest hand, but dealer is perilously close to 121 next deal if we boost his crib - consider 109 Vs 107 for example, and it's clear we need to exercise care.

In fact what we need to do is to keep our opponent to around 26 points in this deal and the next, because if he were to reach say 28, then he'd likely peg out.

Meanwhile we need 35 from two deals as pone and 1 and as dealer.

That's not too hard at all, if we don't help dealer and he doesn't get lucky !

27 and 26 are very similar tosses in dealer's crib, but we are looking for 8+ points here:

4466
24 with 5 (4)
8 with A469 (12)
6 with 37 (7)
4 with 28tjqk (23)

4467
16 with 5 (4)
12 with 4 (2)
9 with 8 (4)
8 with 6 (2)
6 with a279 (14)
4 with 3tjqk (20)

It's not easy to choose between the distributions , but for example with 5 we consider 110+ Vs 102+. These seem like useful points, in that while our opponent has first take next time, this at least substantially reduces the chance of him pegging out the following deal.

Anyway, having chosen the jackpot cards, and cut the jackpot, there's now nothing to do but peg as defensively as possible, because we cannot hope to peg 11 in two deals.

After leading the 4 we have a bit of a conundrum ! If dealer pairs it, then he can peg 14 to our 6 and maybe even go out this time. However let's hope not, and just maybe we even score 12-3 with our remaining 6s

   

Wednesday 3:46 AM

My thought today is more minimal hit in the hand and pegging combined with a good chance at a low scoring crib. Nineteen cuts adds four or more to this keep. Then there is the six I was going to if only a little gain in the hand with the 6-5-4 pegging possibility . Early in the game if it is close I would do this keep most of the time. I would like to think they might have a ten/fifteen type of hand over cross the board. This hand has a lot more upside then being concerned about sixteen face cards available. Still leading the six after the cut, I suppose I'm into killer mode here. dec

   

Wednesday 3:51 AM

I chose expected averages by tossing 4-4 to opponent. Could be a risky move based on previous comments. A lesson today?

   

Wednesday 4:15 AM

I thought about keeping 4466 and gambling on 5. Wouldn't you know it, I would have hit the jackpot this time. There were a few more cuts that helped, plus the 5 still did well, if I held the 4467.

   

Wednesday 5:13 AM

2 - 6 best compromise as per JQT. Interesting cut lol

   

Wednesday 5:50 AM

Whew...some challenging choices for a player with limited experience. Especially with the score..toss the 4-4, 2-7 or 4-7 were my choices. ..toss the 4-4 and cut cards 3,5,6,7,8,& 9 help my hand

   

Wednesday 5:55 AM

Few more cuts helps us I think with this hold vs 4-4-6-6 and we toss the off-suited 2-6 which is less dangerous than 4-4 and I would say a bit less dangerous than suited 2-7. We have 16, so Will per defensively and lead from strength with one of my 4s.

   

Wednesday 6:41 AM

If dealer was at 95 or beyond I would hold 2667;tempted to do so here but will opt for 4467.

   

Wednesday 6:56 AM

I wishfully considered throwing 2 7 but decided on 2 6, because I thought that left me with more flexibility. Of course the other throw would have left me with points which may perhaps be a little more important.

   

Wednesday 7:24 AM

First job is to not let my opponent go out with this hand-crib-hand. So not tossing the 4-4, as I would be very unhappy if opponent tossed 2-3 or 3-5, or 5-6 or 7-7 or other combos that as dealer I'd want to toss in my crib.

Wednesday 9:37 AM

Decision made due to negative delta. Everything else was too risky right about now!

   

Wednesday 11:59 AM

The trouble with not logging in until the evening, is that all the good points have already been made and there's nothing left to add. 2-6 from me.

   

Wednesday 12:50 PM

Offense at this spot, shocked to be alone.

   

Wednesday 3:50 PM

I think it's between 2-6-6-7 (4-4), 4-4-6-7 (2-6) and 4-4-6-6 (2-7):

2-6-6-7: 6pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = -½pt

4-4-6-7: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.97) = -1pt

4-4-6-6: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.97) = -1pt

Potential:

2-6-6-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 5555, 66, 777, 8888, 9999 = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 10/12/14pts with 222, 5555, 66, 777, 8888, 9999 = 20 cuts.

4-4-6-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 44, 5555, 66, 777, 8888, 9999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 8/9/12/16pts with 44, 5555, 66, 777, 8888 = 15 cuts.

4-4-6-6: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 44, 5555, 66, 777, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/24pts with AAAA, 44, 5555, 66, 9999 = 12 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is 5pts short of fourth street positional hole while we need the average 10pts to reach it for next deal. I'll play Defensively.

Pegging:

Playing Defensively I think 4-4-6-6 will peg best but if we need to peg Offense 2-6-6-7 will be advantageous.

Summary:

2-6-6-7 has the lowest starting value by ½pt but has the most cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 10-14pts. It also will peg well if we need to play Offense. So I'll throw the 4-4.

   

Wednesday 3:59 PM

At 86-91* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Defense___Hand_Pegs___Crib____Total_____W2 %___W3 %
2-6-6-7___8.96+(-3.17)+(-6.08)=(-0.29)___9.4____37.8
4-4-6S-7__6.65+(-2.59)+(-4.35)=(-0.29)___6.6____33.0
4-4-6-6___7.09+(-2.98)+(-4.42)=(-0.31)__10.5____32.6

Defense_______L2 %____L3 %
2-6-6-7________27.9____53.3
4-4-6S-7_______20.0____56.7
4-4-6-6________19.5____55.6

2-6-6-7 is equal to 4-4-6S-7 for expected averages but 2-6-6-7 is significantly best for Win %s and although it isn't lowest for Loss %s I'll select 4-4 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the 7 and play Optimally:

Lead______________Net Pegging Pts._____Loss %
6______________________(-1.50)__________0.5
2______________________(-1.60)__________0.3
7______________________(-1.68)__________0.2

The 6 is best for Net Pegging Points but the 7 lead has the lowest chance of Losing by a very small margin.

   

Wednesday 10:45 PM

Needing 9 holes to deal from 4th Street CPZ am choosing an optimal strategy out of the gate and into the pegging. Will lead a four, if paired, will take the 15-2 rather than the triple. After seeing the five on the deck, should know that I have 16 points in hand, take the reasonably safe pegs, skip those which entail risk. The five cut does not excite me as dealer counts 8 cards with it. Did I see any X-pointers in my hand? The deal is comprised of 12 cards and there are cards of 13 ranks. So it is likely dealer got more than a fair share of X-pointers. The 2-6 in the crib just might limit the crib to four points with the five on the deck. RAS will sigh in relief if dealer does not lay down a double run of X-pointers. If dealer gets the average of 16 (pegs, hand and crib scores), will be at hole 107. That's quite aways out and the chance of opponent winning on the next deal becomes one of six.