June 1, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by ccjohnson
91-105*  ?
59%
23%
8%
2%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 214
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 3:14 AM
Tough spot to be in.

Every cut bar a 4 is helpful.

With a 2nd two and an 8 in my hand, 2-9 might achieve below its average.

2 lead.
thelawnet
262 votes

Joined: January 2020
 
 
 
Monday 3:25 AM
Seems to be a choice between 79 and and 29.

79 averages more points. Need to keep pone pegging down but don't see an easy path to win here!

Say we get to 103*-113, we could win. But still need a good hand next time and a very bad hand now and a bad one next time for pone.

We can't go ultra defensive here and must accept the right cards or cut for pone and this is game over.

Lead 8? Could go 8-x-2-x which is bad. Or 8-x-5-5-2 which is slightly better

Or lead 2? Pone might reply with 6, 7, 9, X , which aren't promising for us. Think I would lead the 8.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Monday 3:34 AM
Desperate days. I'll try throwing the 7 - 9. In the hope they don't match. Need dealer to have a zero crib.
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:55 AM
Don't gain a thing here with dealer already at hole 105 by playing offense. So am thinking def., when picking up the cards, thinking def. when discarding 7-9 (admittedly 2-9 has a much lower average), and playing SAFE once knowing that I have the six points after seeing the starter card. Will lead the 8 and escape with 2D if dealer pegs on my lead. If RAS is going to have even a slim chance to win, got to limit dealer on this hand to no more than 8 holes (pegs, hand and crib scores). What's the chance of that? That's one of 14. Am looking at all-out defense this hand and the next if get a chance to play it. If dealer gets the average pegs, hand, and crib score on this deal of 16, the game is over.
thelawnet says: Hi, I suspect our holding an 8 is making the 7-9 toss a bit cheaper than the average 7-9 toss, in that we're most likely to toss 7-9 in hands with NO 8s, whereas here we have one. This won't make 7-9 cheaper than 2-9, but it should cut the mean by a few tens of a point compared to the average 7-9 toss. Even so, probably 'mean' is not that interesting here in that we have a specific need for a blank crib. K9 and KT have almost the same average toss cost, for example, but if we were winning bigly we might prefer to toss K9 over KT because of the distribution of the outcomes. Here we specifically need 0-2 in pone's crib. It could be in certain situations it might be better to toss something with a high average, but a low 25th percentile, for example. In this case, 79 is going to participate in some REALLY expensive cribs. But that doesn't matter at all here, because if pone tosses, say, A3 to our 29, then we are just as much toast with 7+ points in his crib, then if he tosses 88 to our 79 for 12+ points, or indeed if the cut is 7 for 24 points. 24/12/7 all spell a loss for us.....
Ras2829 says: Hi the lawnet: Suspect the presence of one 8 in our hand reduces the value of the 7-9 by about .16. Certainly would sooner toss 2-9 4.573(2,056) 24/91 than 7-9 5.105 (820) 49/91 though am not willing to play four points in preference to the six points retained. Would likely do that if at hole 94 rather than hole 91. Regardless combined values demand retaining the 2-2-5-8. Is giving up two points in hand score worth the slightly more than half point deduction in crib value?
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:04 AM
Seeing what the situation is guessing we are at least 5-1 to lose here... So not giving up will discard 7-9 and try to peg very defensively now. Perhaps they kept a minimal of middle cards in hands and just threw face cards in the crib. They also get a non cut and we proceed with the next hand perhaps a minimal of them being a little long on first count. That is my optimism and I play hard here right to the end. Two lead peg from my strength. dec
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:19 AM
I tossed the 7-9 reluctantly, and probably got away with it. The 4 doesnt help the cause. Lead the 2. Praying the dealer has a clunker of a hand and crib, otherwise this game is a big L.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:48 AM
The POSITION forces our choice today. If we were Dealer, we'd have a chance here; but sadly, we are Pone.

The Dealer will really have to 'fall flat' on his/her face to lose this game, maybe via a Two-Point Hand and a similar Crib.

If I thought Toss (2 9) would aid in that effort, I'd try it, but I don't see that anything helps us. But giving up Two Points to save maybe half-a-point in Crib Value does not serve us well here.

It's just a good thing we're already over the SKUNK line!
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Should have read your post first and could have just said "ditto"! Well stated and concisely so.
JQT says: Yes indeed, although I did happen to post almost one hour AFTER you did today, and thus you would have had to read my MIND as opposed to read my post (or, you could have simply used your time machine, in which case you must already know that I said this ; - )
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Monday 7:50 AM
All or nothing throw in this desperate situation.
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Monday 8:29 AM
No hold to get more than a dozen...maybe parlay the 2's at the end.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Monday 9:38 AM
I'm really surprised at how many people are gambling with 7-9. We have almost no chance of winning unless our opponent scores very badly.

He has first count next hand...
horus93 says: I don't know the numbers but I'm confident that 2-9 is significantly more likely to get a 0 crib than 7-9. I understand the logic of risking 7-9: even if we are lucky and our opponent underscores, we still want to be well past 96 if possible to have a good chance. But I'm surprised to be totally alone in throwing something that's a much better balk and still leaves a decent hand!
Ras2829 says: Hi horus93: Based on my empirical data, 2-9 scores 0-2 points 30.155% and 7-9 scores 0-2 33.896% when tossed on the other side of the board. They both score 12 or more in excess of 6% as the two most frequent discards made by dealer are 7-8 and 2-3. The 2-9 has the lower average since it scores fewer cribs in the 3-7 point range. In point ranges of 8-11 and 12+, these choices are very near identical. Of course neither do wo well when tossed to own crib. Would have retained 2-5-7-8 had I been 2-3 points further down the board.
horus93 says: Thanks ras!
JQT says: I think your final idea is correct, horus93, but the logic needs to be extended just a bit: "We have almost no chance of winning unless our opponent scores very badly..." to which I would add: "And since this is more based on POSITION than on our discard, we have very little control over it ... thus, we ought to simply MAXIMIZE our own chances and Toss (7 9)."
thelawnet says: there's no obvious reason why 2-9 should zero out. 7-9 15s with 6,8 (also run for the 8, but no need to count it twice), and pairs with 7-9. that's any combination with 6, 7, 8, 9 also we can consider cards adding up to 8 and 6, that would be 7-A (7 already counted), 5-3, 4-4 (but that's inherently 2 points), and 3-3 (inherent 2 points) 4-2, 5-A Meanwhile 2-9 hurts also vs. 6/9 but with no 7 the 7/8 is gone, but instead of 7+9 = 16, which is more than 15, we now have 2+9 = 11, which means we are hit by ALL 4s, as well as 2-2 (inherent 2 points), and 3-1. The 2 means a two card 13, which is 9+4, 8+5, 7+6. 3-card 13s are also possible and intuitively should be much more common than 3 card 8s and 6s, since you can make a 13 with ANY card. So anyway, the base bad cards would be: 7-9 - 6789 (14 cards) 2-9 - 2469 (15 cards) and then we have 2 + 3 card combinations adding up to 6 or 8 vs. 6, 4, or 13. So it should be clear that 7-9 is more likely to zero out. It's worth noting that the 7+9 = 16 property results in a significantly lower average for the 7,9 toss compared to 6,8 btw
Ras2829 says: Hi thelawnet: Not sure I understand all you've said here. The last I get very clearly is that the even cards 6-8 have the higher averages than do the odd cards 7-9. So it is with many other combinations. The even 2-4 has higher average than the odd A-3 when tossed to the other side of the board.
thelawnet says: Hi, I was observing that 2+9 and 6+8 are both less than 15, so can combine with 1 or more other cards to make 15, whereas 7+9 is more than 15 and cannot do that. It's not obvious to me that 2-4 and a-3 are comparable in that a is an end card
james500 says: Both can be "filled" to become a run, but 2+4 is greater than 5 so can combine with another card to make 15 (9), whereas A+3 is less than 5 so cannot.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Monday 10:56 AM
Dealer must completely miss in the crib. Throwing 2 semi touchies increases the odds of a complete miss or (it prob doesn't matter anyway) a complete hit. Two highs or 2 lows from dealer and we may have our complete miss. There is a maxim in bridge that if you need cards to lie a certain way to make your contract, you must play for it. So too here, need dealer to have a complete miss??...play for it.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Monday 12:13 PM
Really need to keep dealer pegging down.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 2:59 PM
I think it's between 2-2-5-8 (7-9) and 5-7-8-9 (2-2) or perhaps 2-7-8-9 (2-5) and 2-5-7-8 (2-9):

2-2-5-8: 6pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.26) = +¾pts

5-7-8-9: 5pts - 6½pts (Scgell: 6.38) = -1½pts

2-7-8-9: 5pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.11) = -1¼pts

2-5-7-8: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.70) = -¾pt

Potential:

2-2-5-8: Improves with 22, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 888 + 16xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 12pts with 22, 555, 888 = 8 cuts.

5-7-8-9: Improves with AAAA, 22, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 17 cuts.

2-7-8-9: Improves with 22, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 10/12pts with 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 13 cuts.

2-5-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 22, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 7/8/10pts with 22, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 18 cut.

Position:

Dealer only needs 16pts to go out which is the average for Dealer so I'll play Defense to try to keep them short.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 2-2-5-8 will peg best with 2-5-7-8 close behind.

Summary:

We're in a pretty hopeless position but so I think we may have to play desperation Defense and throw the safest 2-9.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:21 PM
At 91-105* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Win % and Loss %s for this deal are:

Offense_________Win %________Loss %s
2-2-5-8__________0.0__________36.8
2-5-7-8__________0.0__________38.8
2-5-7-9__________0.0__________40.2
2-5-8-9__________0.0__________40.4
2-2-5-7__________0.0__________44.8
2-2-7-9__________0.0__________51.1
2-7-8-9__________0.0__________51.4
5-7-8-9__________0.0__________52.4
2-2-7-8__________0.0__________52.7
2-2-5-9__________0.0__________55.8
2-2-8-9__________0.0__________57.8

We have no chance of getting out this deal but 2-2-5-8 minimises the chance of losing on this deal. So I'll select 7-9 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead a 2 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Pts.________Loss %
8_____________________1.23________________13.5
5_____________________1.16________________18.3
2_____________________1.14_________________9.9

The 8 lead pegs best but the 2 lead has lowest chance of losing so I'll lead a 2.
travelingman2019
513 votes

Joined: December 2018
 
 
 
Monday 6:03 PM
The infamous "crib-killer" toss and you need the peg cards to block any further movement by the pone......plus, its the only way in this scenario to obtain a double-digit hand......