May 30, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by James500
73*-84  ?
38%
36%
17%
5%
2%
Total votes: 198
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:05 AM
Looks like I need to change the board positions when I submit my next puzzle. Yet another 73*-84 today.

With all the nines still in play, as compared to only three of the eights, I'll try A-5.
Ras2829 says: Hi james500: A fine puzzle again this day. You're on a roll!
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:07 AM
Slightly higher expected averages with this hand and crib. Looked at 3 choices: 5-6, A-5 and 2-5. Every cut helps hand or crib with this retention.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:24 AM
Someone might even do A-2 not me lookin for that four or seven cut, an another six might end up doing the deal. dec
thelawnet
262 votes

Joined: January 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 3:24 AM
The 5 gets tossed.

And then 6, a or 2. A5 is slightly better in the crib because of the 9s.

In this spot we're behind so keep the flush, hope that pone has a poor hand, so he starts next deal at 93* or similar, and we have a good hope of winning. Allow pone to peg and we will be in trouble as he nears 100*.

If pone leads an X he may have xxx5 or xxxx. Will reply with 8. A lead of 4 could be 456x or 456*2 or 432x etc. Should be wary about our 7 getting trapped, so will reply with the 7. A lead of 6 could be from 669 or 6678. Will reply with a 2.

7 or 8 and we have
8767-21 (31) or 879-21
And
7867-21 (31) also 789-21
thelawnet says: The 3 is not a great cut for us in that we have 9 and it's not necessarily good for our crib. However our crib does ok with 4,6,7,9,X and others so could be good still
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:48 AM
It pays to flush as with puzzle of yesterday, there are just so many cards that add value to a flush. Here we get to dump power-hours building blocks to the crib as well. Although normally a far more aggressive player than HalscribCLX, today I will choose def., def., SAFE, and play off the lead. A few dealer pegs would be a good thing though want to exercise caution to limit n/d in reaching that 4th Street CPZ (95-99).
Ras2829 says: Sorry ..."power-hours" above should read "power-house"!
RubyTuesday
913 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 5:14 AM
I threw 2 5, am hoping pone threw me some court cards!
HfxKen
886 votes

Joined: February 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 5:19 AM
I've submitted 2 hands to the site and both have not appeared . Today is one of those days. Has this happened to anyone else?
BTW I went for the flush in James500's puzzle.
cwed says: When you submit a hand to this site, it tells you what date it will appear on. There is a backlog of hands, so it is usually a couple months in the future.
cwed says: I just check the list of future hands, and you have one scheduled on June 3.
HfxKen says: Thank you very much. Really enjoy the daily puzzles and various solu tions from cribbage minds much above my pay grade.Thank you for all of your work.
Gougie00 says: Evil Elves sometimes delete hands that are either too obvious or are repeats of scenarios we've seen before. I have the ability to delete, but I do not. Several of us do, This is supposed to be a learning website, and others are a little lower on the tree. For the record, all the puzzles I submit are hands that I actually had dealt and probably made a bonehead decision on. More interestingly, the vast majority happen in Game 1 of a tournament. Then you get the life master sitting to your right mentioning how he'd play it differently. --Greg
Ras2829 says: Hi Gougie00: Am one of those Evil Elves (think there are 10 though some are not evil at all.) The quality of puzzles has improved immensely. When I first started as a moderator, deleted half of all puzzles submitted. Think that is down to about 10% in recent months. With all the prior junk submissions the wait to see a puzzle appear after submitting was nearly a year. Now it's less than two months.
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:52 AM
I saw the flush, but I like the A678 more. In both cases I am looking for a 678 to be the starter.
Ras2829 says: HI Gougie00: Although this choice ranks third among those analyzed by HalscribCLX, you're in good company as the cribbot also opted to play this hand with 2-5 discard since it has best win/loss %.
Gougie00 says: Don't fall in love with the flush.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 6:05 AM
That score looks familiar: and, the FLUSH to the rescue!

That 5 Card *belongs* in the Crib here, but the great thing about the FLUSH is that it eliminates our need to examine the merits of Toss (A 5) vs Toss (2 5) today!

And as for Toss (A 2), I cannot imagine a scenario or board position in which this would help solve anything, unless we somehow knew Pone was about to Toss (3 3)!
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
Saturday 6:18 AM
A strange-looking flush, but all cuts except face cards (non-clubs) help. Must play defense, prevent opponent from Hole 95/96.
Jazzselke says: A278
mfetchCT425
1399 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 6:49 AM
At this board position, our primary goal should be to hold back opponent from reaching their 4th street CPZ (95-99). This, I like the flush hold which gives us more defensive options in the pegging to help us achieve that goal. It also allows us to discard the puissant (powerful) 5-6 which is a ‘top 5’ toss to own crib. Will peg defensively and only take safe pegs.
mfetchCT425 says: Should say *Thus* above.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 8:45 AM
I believe this is a good example of the score/position influencing the keep. Here we need to keep a DEF pegging hand that also may score. I believe this is it.
joekayak says: Interestingly, not one of the panelists, so far, has chosen the what the majority has chosen to keep 8-7-6-5. Could be a nightmare DEF pegging hand.
Ras2829 says: Hi joekayak: Most often when dealing, holding a five spot in hand for a single point is not productive when a five with anything to crib averages nearly six points. Think that might be the major contributor here and most who comment have a good understanding of the game. Hopefully some on the sidelines will look at the posts, scratch their heads, and opt to look more frequently for opportunities to discard a five spot when dealing.
thelawnet says: X5 is the classic toss. e.g., k87653, and the 3 is doing little, but we can't keep 5 cards, so best to transfer the k5 to our crib, where it is 2 intact points and likely to improve. but also when our hand is otherwise trash we might to well to salt our crib with a 5, giving up on our hand in favour of the crib...
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 3:29 PM
In this marginal position holding good cards we will probably peg cautiously. I imagine this is best for pure expected averages and I'm sure it's best for defensive pegging.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 4:22 PM
I think there are four likely keeps - A-2-7-8 (5-6), A-6-7-8 (2-5), 2-6-7-8 (A-5) and 5-6-7-8 (A-2):

A-2-7-8: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 12½pts

A-6-7-8: 7pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.45) = 12½pts

2-6-7-8: 7pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.45) = 12½pts

5-6-7-8: 6pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.23) = 10¼pts

Potential:

A-2-7-8: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/10/11/12pts with 3333, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 20 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pts extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-6-7-8: Improves with AAA, 222, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 10/13/14/16pts with AAA, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 16 cuts.

2-6-7-8: Improves with AAA, 222, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 10/11/14/16pts with 222, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 19 cuts.

5-6-7-8: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/10/12/14pts with 222, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 23 cuts.

Position:

We're 3pts past positional hole and Pone is 2pts short of where thay would like to be. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

5-6-7-8 always pegs well but playing Defense I think I prefer the flush and it will be harder to read.

Summary:

A-2-7-8, A-6-7-8, 2-6-7-8 have the same starting value of 12½pts. The flush has more cuts for improvement and 0.20pt for a club cut while A/2-6-7-8 have fewer cuts for improvement but a higher maximum. On the other hand 5-6-7-8 has a much lower starting value by 2¼pts but guaranteed improvement and 23 cuts for 9-14pts. If we peg more offensively it will also peg well. Will it make up the 2¼pts? I don't think so. So I'm inclined to keep the flush and throw the powerful 5-6 to my crib.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:25 PM
At 73*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense__Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
A-2-7-8___8.52+(-1.98)+6.61=13.15____25.6____37.2
2-6-7-8___9.35+(-2.09)+5.53=12.79____25.1____38.5
A-6-7-8___9.48+(-2.13)+5.42=12.77____25.7____38.4
5-6-7-8___9.61+(-2.15)+4.13=11.59____22.4____35.0

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
A-2-7-8_______45.3____51.4
2-6-7-8_______42.8____49.8
A-6-7-8_______42.8____49.6
5-6-7-8_______44.3____54.0

The flush is best for expected averages by 0.36pt but A-6-7-8 is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So as we're at a critical board position just past third positional hole I'll put most weight on the Win/Loss %s as they take account of board position. So I'll select 2-5 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 4:57 PM
I really would like to understand the logic behind the Halscrib program in order to understand how to interpret the numbers. Just curious exactly how much more credence, and why, one should give to a 0.1% win percentage over the 0.38 point difference.
Ras2829 says: Hi dgergens: Am a great supporter of Hal Mueller and his wonderful cribbage tutorials (Halscrib, REX, and Cribbage Prof). Can't tell you why a greater combined value does not reflect directly in win/loss percentages. Perhaps there is somebody that can explain why that might be so?
thelawnet says: The numbers above don't seem to be combined values. The pegging numbers should be positive numbers not negative numbers. The numbers given are pegs incurred, but we will also score. It seems the numbers are misleading for that reason. Also it seems logical that 2678 and a678 are almost identical, which shows in the numbers, whereas a278 for example doesn't behave the same way with cuts of 678. In general, not only are the numbers not averages for our points, even if they were they don't necessarily follow into win % in that in this spot our exact points and pones are critical. Many games are lost by 1 or 2 points, so it follows that if one hand has a tendency to leave us just short while often giving us TOO MANY points, then that might not be as good as a hand which always delivers the exact number of points required. Here, clearly, we are losing, so it could also be the other way round, in that hypothetically at say 100-112* a hand that deliver exactly 14 points always is no use - we'd look to find a hand that can give 20 points, and would have a greater winning chance with a hand that say 20% of the time does 20 points and 80% of the time has 6 points (mean score 9.8) than one that 100% of the time gives 14. I would expect win % to be much more correlated to points totals at 0-0, but if pegs are expressed as pone's pegs only, and not (ours - pone's), then that's hard to judge