Friday 3:16 AM

K-3 to keep the six point flush.

If Dealer has XXX5, I might be able to trap the 5 if they don't play it on my lead:
8(8)-X(18)-4(22)-5(27)-3(30/3+1).

   

Friday 3:29 AM

A balance of offensive potential and a more defensive discard concerning the X-5 possibilities. The open end run hand have a higher ceiling and maybe be able to peg more offensively with it. Its a close one to pick out of these two. I will pick a more reserved choice here. Lead card a three thinking of probably a four card play of a thirty one if they have only face cards. dec

   

Friday 3:34 AM

Like keeping the 3348 together here-the 8 lead could potentially trap the opponents 5 at the 22 count-16 cuts give us at least a 12 point hand-and the JK discard could yield 8 but just as likely to score 2 or 3

   

Friday 3:51 AM

Both hands after tossing 3-K or J-K start with 6 points in the hand. The safer toss is 3-K. Both hands have a potential for 13 or 14 points. It pays to Flush and I will go with that today.

   

Friday 4:00 AM

I'll go for the more offensive option.

   

Friday 4:04 AM

This hand pegs the most and scores the most. However JK is possibly slightly worse than 3K in pone's crib.

   

Friday 4:50 AM

Am choosing an offense strategy from the git-go (when looking at cards, when deciding retention as relates to chosen strategy, and after seeing starter card, and knowing that I have 8 points). That means leading the 8 whether holding flush or 3-3-4-8 and take any pegs offered. Someplace else on the board would lead the trey if choosing a defense pegging strategy. Based on my scant empirical evidence, holding the flush has the edge in combined value by about .1. The 3-K average is 4.434 (1,750) 16/91 compares to the J-K at 4.627 (1,369) 31/91. Giving up the Jack transfers a potential point from the hand to opponent crib, being about 1/2 point net loss. That's part of the reason that the flush has a slight edge in combined value (pegs, hand score, minus crib value). Some discard tables show suited J-K values at more than 5.0. If you buy that, then holding the flush has even greater potential.

   

Friday 5:01 AM

I kept the potential for a 14 hand. Lead the 8 and trap a 5.

   

Friday 5:20 AM

I like the upside of this hold, but it's a really nice puzzle.

   

Friday 5:34 AM

Close between this and the flush, but I like the touching cards here slightly better (3-3-4). Would lead the 8 and peg aggressively.

   

Friday 6:25 AM

Great potential with this hand, would not want to give it up at the outset of the game.

   

Friday 6:46 AM

This is the better hand for pure averages and probably for pegging too. I don't think 3-K is much safer than J-K, in fact I couldn't decide which was worse. Turns out 3-K is somewhat safer especially with delta but it's not a big difference.

   

Friday 6:48 AM

It's all been said before - keep the strong 3-3-4 combo with the 8, or the flush. Well, when in doubt, I go with the flush

   

Friday 6:54 AM

And so, as Pone today, and right from the get-go, it's Six of One, and Half a Dozen of the Other.

If we Toss (J K), we retain the "meat" of this arrangement in the form of a both a PAIR alongside a possible chance for a Double RUN, after Eight Cuts. And like many similar hands, if we Cut any of Eight "Matching" cards, we shall also inherit a Dozen Points (and most importantly, these Eight Cuts differ from the previously-mentioned Eight Cuts, thus we enjoy Sixteen Cuts to Double Our Hand and Hit The Big Time!).

If, however, we retain the FLUSH and Toss (3 K), we have a chance after Eight Cuts to get 'Nobs,' or whoop-de-do.

The latter choice or Toss (3 K) surprisingly has a slightly LOWER Crib Value 'over the board' but when we factor in the aforementioned issue of getting (or giving away) 'Nobs' here, I would call it a virtual "wash," and perhaps had we not been dealt that (3 3 4) trio, the Toss (3 K) might even be a bit more risky.

In the Pegging Department, it should not go unnoticed that if the Dealer holds a few Ten Cards (or "X") along with a Trey, that after prudently leading the 4 Card, we would no doubt soon reach that magical Count of Twenty-Two, and possibly 'strike pay-dirt' when the Dealer may be forced or inclined to make the Count Twenty-Five with said Trey, after which we would bag an unopposed and tidy Ten Holes!

If we could manage a 'Pegging Coup' or get a very beneficial Cut (or both), then this is the kind of Hand that could potentially place us AHEAD of the Dealer, and perform that almost magical trick which is commonly referred to as "Stealing the Crib" from the Dealer. This means we could possibly strip the Opponent of having had the "Dealer Advantage" and be on our merry way! The odds are remote, but we could only do this if we see this and discard and peg accordingly.

As we are First Non-Dealer, the initial position does call for us to adopt an OFFENSIVE posture, and thus Toss (J K) meets this objective very well. Conversely, the FLUSH is a more DEFENSIVE pegging hand, and this is what we would be better off avoiding, all other things being equal (which they almost never are, but today, it comes very close I think).

Let's therefore Toss (J K), and Lead the 4 Card, and Rock 'n' Roll this puppy for all it's worth. The computer is a Number Cruncher, and so it will likely disagree with this decision, but these two discard options are extremely close.

The computer program and its "Horizon Effect" is probably not quite capable of 'seeing' the OPPORTUNITY that is present if we assume a slightly greater risk here, which as human players, I believe should sometimes be taken.

   

Friday 10:54 AM

I like the 3-3-4 together. Early in game toss the K-J.

   

Friday 4:36 PM

I think it's a straight choice between 3-3-4-8 (J-K) and 3H-4-8-J (3-K):

3-3-4-8: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.77) = +1pt

3H-4-8-J: 6pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.48) = +1½pts

Potential:

3-3-4-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 7777, 888, 9999 = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 12/14pts with 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 888 = 16 cuts.

3H-4-8-J: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 7777, 888, JJJ = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 10/11pts with 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 888 = 16 cuts. Plus 8 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob and 1pt for the flush = 2x8/46 = 0.35pt.

Position:

As First Pone I'll play Offense and try to reach positional hole at 18pts.

Pegging:

I think both hands will peg well but the flush will be harder to read.

Summary:

The flush has a starting value ½pt more than 3-3-4-8 but 3-3-4-8 has slightly more cuts for improvement and 16 cuts for 12/14pts. Although the flush has an extra 0.35pt for an heart cut I'll select 3C-K to discard.

   

Friday 4:41 PM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

______________Our
Offense__Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
3H-4-8-J__8.39+1.35+(-4.30)=5.44____27.5____25.9
3-3-4-8___8.78+1.33+(-5.01)=5.10____28.5____25.7
3H-4-8-K__8.22+1.35+(-4.78)=4.79____26.7____24.7

Offense_____W9 %____W10 %
3H-4-8-J_____37.4____48.9
3-3-4-8______38.7____49.2
3H-4-8-K_____38.2____50.1

After the A cut I'll lead the J and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
J____________________1.58
8____________________1.30
4____________________1.12
3____________________1.01

   

Friday 9:25 PM

Pays to flush... when there aren't any good reasons not to.