Sunday 3:11 AM

Now, let's imagine one of those 6 Cards were a CLUB, and let's say the score was something like (102*-109) . . . and then, I would probably . . . do the same exact thing.

   

Sunday 3:13 AM

Lots of options to consider here. (Suited) 2-3 is usually a safe bet.

   

Sunday 3:55 AM

2-2-3 works in the hand also. dec

   

Sunday 4:12 AM

I threw 3 3 as more cuts will increase my score than won’t.

   

Sunday 4:52 AM

This hold has the most potential IMO-sacrificing 2 points in the hand to throw 2-3 in the crib rather than 3-3

   

Sunday 5:06 AM

1-second decision for me today but I see not everyone agrees. 3-3 is a great toss.

   

Sunday 5:55 AM

Best hand and a great toss to the crib. Hand has an expected average of almost 9 points, 14 maximum.

   

Sunday 6:44 AM

I would rather throw 2-3 suited than 3-3 or 6-6 to crib. You never know when a crib flush may be in your future...just not today.

   

Sunday 6:49 AM

Love 2-3 in my crib, but 3-3 is a top 10 toss as well and this hold gives us a shot for 14 with the 8 cut. A, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 cuts all provide us with improvement with many of these cuts giving us an above average hand.

   

Sunday 7:12 AM

Tough call between 22 and 33. Similar cuts would help both 3667 and 2677. The difference for me is an A or 4 cut guarantees 5 points in the crib with 23; only 2 with 33.

   

Sunday 8:10 AM

Tough decision today because I really like that 233 together. I kept my points and tossed 3-3 in the crib.

Raining here in northern Massachusetts. Day 15 of isolation. This responsible citizen is getting a little bored, but I hear they are turning the local gymnasium into COVID-19 sick ward, so maybe I'll just stick around the house a little bit longer.

   

Sunday 8:59 AM

Gee why didn't you thrown a flush in there to make this decision more complicated? I'm sure pone tossed a crappy 3 into my crib, this is going to be a good round.

   

Sunday 9:34 AM

2-3 to own crib hopefully trumps loss of 2 points in hand. I notice that so far all of the commentators do NOT keep 3-3-6-6.

   

Sunday 10:48 AM

Choosing defense as dealer of opening hand, have got to go with the 3-3 discard. Admittedly I love the 2-3 discard to own crib and even have a chance here to add a bit in value by tossing suited combo. Based on my scant empirical evidence tossing 2-3 leaves me with a hand potential of nearly 2.5 points less that discarding 3-3. That's too much of a point loss to recover in the crib. Holding 3-6-6-7 would be my second choice. Third would be holding 2-3-3-7 with 6-6 discard. Given these cards would not even seriously consider holding 3-3-6-6 on my deal. That would be the hand to hold if non-dealer. Knowing that dealer has a guaranteed peg, ten points in hand, and a minimum of four in crib (15 points combined) will play SAFE to protect my advantage, play off the lead (though would pair a 6 or score 15-2 on a 9 lead) and look to picking off a few relatively safe pegs.

   

Sunday 2:10 PM

I dealt this hand to myself in the Greater Orlando Open on February 8. There are two ways to hold a total of eight points (toss 2-7 and toss 3-3) and one way to hold six points (toss 2-3). After deliberating longer than I usually do, I tossed 3-3--at which point Rob Medeiros immediately said "bad decision." As it turned out, this ended up being a very good (or least fortuitous) decision, as a 9 was cut and the pone had tossed 3 and the right Jack. I ended up with a 10-hand and a 13-crib. By way of comparison, tossing 2-7 yields 14+1, and tossing 2-3 yields 8+9.

   

Sunday 2:55 PM

I'll look at three keeps - 2-6-6-7 (3-3), 3-3-6-6 (2-7) and 3D-6-6-7 (2-3C):

2-6-6-7: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 11¾pts

3-3-6-6: 8pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 12pts

3-6-6-7: 4pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10¾pts

Potential:

2-6-6-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 5555, 66, 777, 8888, 9999 = 26pts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 10/12/14pts with 222, 5555, 66, 777, 8888, 9999 = 20 cuts.

3-3-6-6: Improves with 33, 66, 9999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 14/18/20pts with all cuts.

3-6-6-7: Improves with 222, 33, 5555, 66, 777, 8888, 9999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 8/12pts with 222, 33, 5555, 66, 8888, 9999 = 19 cuts.

Position:

Aa First Dealer I'll play Defense. Positional hole is 8pt but I'll try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

Playing Defense 3-3-6-6 will probably be best but the other two will be OK as well.

Summary:

3-3-6-6 has the best starting value by ¼pt over 2-6-6-7 but the latter has the most cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 10-14pts. So even though 3-3-6-6 has the best maximum and will peg well Defensively I'll throw 3-3.

   

Sunday 2:59 PM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense__Hand__Pegs__Crib__Total____W9 %____W10 %
2-6-6-7___8.87+(-2.20)+5.55=12.22____42.8____54.9
3D-6-6-7__6.65+(-1.91)+6.85=11.59____40.5____52.7
2-3-3-7___8.09+(-2.22)+5.42=11.29____39.9____50.6
3-3-6-6___9.48+(-2.02)+3.41=10.87____37.6____51.4

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
2-6-6-7_______25.8____20.4
3D-6-6-7______26.3____22.2
2-3-3-7_______29.4____24.8
3-3-6-6_______24.5____22.7

2-6-6-7 is best for expected averages by 0.63pt and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 3-3 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.