March 26, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Jazzselke
70*-70  ?
75%
9%
6%
4%
2%
1%
0%
Total votes: 224
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:16 AM
Toss (2 3) might have to 'duke it out' with Toss (4 5) today, but Toss (5 J) beats them both silly!
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Great job and you nailed it with a single sentence without benefit of a single post.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Thursday 3:39 AM
Pretty straightforward today, this has the highest min and could peg well. Offense to the cut
mrob2199
1433 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 3:58 AM
Ughhh brutal cut here-as a general rule I don’t like keeping A234 together-the max cut is only 10 and it is a hand which has the potential to give up a lot of pegging points-which we certainly don’t want in this spot-an ace,2 or 3 gives us a double run,and the 3 could also give us a double run in our crib-this is also what I call an insurance hold-if we cut a 6-which would kill our A-2-3-j hold-it would fill in our 4/5 crib discard-the Jack provides us with an out card in the pegging as well-obviously the 7 cut is a punch to the gut-peg aggressively now to try to get as close to 90 as we can-since the cut didn’t do us any favors
SallyAnn3 says: I tossed 2-3, so now I hope they tossed me face cards!5-3 :)
mrob2199 says: I’m only at 4 percent!!!! I still like my logic but A234 is a nice backup plan anyways
Goatman says: I agree totally with you on this one Rob. Like your thinking.
Goatman says: Rob, told my wife this morning I was going to get a t-shirt made saying “THINK LIKE ROB” for tournament play.
mrob2199 says: Lol I love that idea!!!
SallyAnn3 says: ****rolllllllllls eyes****maybe we should put that on the little playoff scoresheets instead of rookie vs. superstar!lol
mrob2199 says: I would love that as well S!
thelawnet
262 votes

Joined: January 2020
 
 
 
Thursday 4:09 AM
see 21st March for similar hand.

Happy to be tossing points to my crib while keeping my run intact.
Ras2829 says: Hi thelawnet: Your puzzle of yesterday was a very instructional one. Fine submission and keep "'em coming.
thelawnet says: Thank you
dec
6356 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 4:39 AM
I understand they might peg a few also but I like as many opportunities to get to that 85 mark trying to set up for fourth street positions is important to me. Play on especially after that cut. dec
mfetchCT425
1397 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 5:12 AM
Used to toss 2-3 from this hand but now like the 5-any face, so will toss 5-J here. Max is only 10 for this hold, but every cut does help us. We also guarantee a decent hand even with thr 8 or 9 cut. If pone is holding the common hand of all faces or a 5 and three faces, this hold can peg at the end of a pegging sequence. Opponent leads a face, we respond with the 4, which takes the 5 off the table. Opponent has to come back with another face making the count 24. We then can play our 3,2,A for a run of 3 and a go.
Gougie00
5728 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 5:30 AM
Face-Five. Lousy cut. Try to parlay the 3-2-A
james500
3921 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Thursday 5:39 AM
I'm guessing that with an Ace and a 4 out of circulation, 2-3 might not be as strong as usual?
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 5:46 AM
Toss 5-J to our crib beats 4-5 and 2-3 retention cards.
Jazzselke
2585 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 5:55 AM
Similar to a puzzle last week, Ras and others have always brought up the pegging value of A234 as the dealer. Also J5 is a top 5 throw to the crib. I always hesitate on this throw because I am not as crazy with keeping A234 for the reasons specified by Rob above. My purpose for posting this puzzle was to see arguments for alternatives to play this classic hand. 23 and 45 have always seemed intriguing; cutting a 7 doesn't help any of the choices!
SallyAnn3 says: I never thought of the 4-5--the vlaue of this site. Interesting alternative, with a possible 14 hand instead of my 9-10. What happened in the real game?
Jazzselke says: No specific game, traditional thinking says 5J . I'm just not crazy about A234 for the hand count, but the 30 for 4 points does come into play against face cards and a 5 and 3 face cards.
mrob2199 says: Dan the Ace 23 works just as well versus hands like that-and in many cases better- the ace 234 does peg 4, but in many cases it gives up 3-if you hold the ace 23j and play the ace on the opening picture lead,you will outpeg the pone 3-0 at the least and possibly 5-0
SallyAnn3 says: me either...would rather rt a 5 in my crib somehow
SallyAnn3 says: put*
Jazzselke says: A23 can also work against a middle-card hand.
Ras2829 says: HI jazzselke: Like this puzzle very much, and it needs to show up about once every six months. Very instructional as it offers insight as to the potential values of a discard when weighed against the potential hand value and the pegging values as relate to choice of strategy. It's definitely not just the value of the discard to crib that is an important consideration.
King Richard
2825 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 9:22 AM
With the Pone also at Hole 70, I’m not concerned about keeping an escape card here. The King just wants to keep scooting down the board. While I have itchy fingers wanted to grab and pitch 2-3, a cooler head must prevail. Everything hits A234 and as Jazzselke says, J5 is a Top 5 toss - DeLynn shows it tied with 2-3 at 6.9:average.
JQT says: These were my thoughts as well: being the Dealer tied at Hole 70, we enjoy the "Dealer Advantage," and so as long as we "get" as good as we "give" during the pegging, our prospects should be very good.
Ras2829
5152 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 1:05 PM
At hole 70 dealer of this hand needs to get down the board. It's off. off., off as two pegs for me are of greater benefit to me than a pairs royal for six would be of benefit to n/d of this hand. BTW it matters not whether choosing offense or defense, the A-2-3-4 performs at a higher level than any other choice. Holding A-2-3-J with 4-5 discard would be the second choice, starting with 7 points. So I am choosing a BOLD pegging strategy and will play on the lead.
Ras2829 says: Note that RAS will play on the lead and would be extra quick to pair a four. If n/d is leading from a pair, dealer will score 15-2 following the triple by n/d. Four pegs for me of much greater value than the six gained by opponent.
jmath714
1298 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Thursday 2:27 PM
Guess I am alone here with 2-3 in the crib. Always try to pick what I would genuinely do, and hopefully learn why I am wrong.

Would really like to see the pure numbers from the computer here.
Ras2829 says: Hi jmath714: Would like also to see the computer numbers. These numbers are based on my scant empirical evidence. Holding A-2-3-4 with 5-J discard offers potential pegs of 3.8, hand value of 8.1,and an average of 7.1 in crib for total of 19.0 potential. Holding A-2-3-J with 4-5 discard offers potential pegs of 3.4, average hand of 8.0 and average crib of 6.5 for total of 17.9. Holding A-4-5-J with discard of 2-3 offers potential pegs of 3.4, average hand of 7.2,and average crib of 7.0 for a total 17.6. Think these will be close to the computer-generated numbers of HalscribCLX, yet to post.
Coeurdelion
5593 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Thursday 3:30 PM
I think it's between A-2-3-4 (5-J), A-4-5-J (2-3) and A-2-3-J (4-5):

A-2-3-4: 4pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 11pts

A-4-5-J: 4pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10¾pts

A-2-3-J: 5pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 11½pts

Potential:

A-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts.

A-4-5-J: Improves with AAA, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 333, 444, 555, 6666 + 15xXs = 31 cuts. Plus 11 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

A-2-3-J: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 9999 + 15xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8/9/12/14pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, JJJ = 15 cuts. Plus 11 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

We're at 3rd street positional hole and Pone is short of the 86pts where they would like to be but they are already at 70pts. So I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think A-2-3-4 will peg best with A-2-3-J next best.

Summary:

A-2-3-J is ¼pt best for starting values by ½pt. A-2-3-4 has most cuts for improvement and more for 7-10pts but A-2-3-J has the best maximum of 14pts. A-4-5-J and A-2-3-J have the benefit of the nob potential but A-2-3-4 should peg best. So I'll throw the 5-J.
HalscribCLX
5316 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:33 PM
At 70*-70 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

______________Our
Offense__Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
A-2-3-4___8.11+3.80+6.91=18.82____15.0____56.5
A-2-3-J___8.02+3.46+6.31=17.79____14.4____53.4
A-4-5-J___7.39+3.54+6.45=17.38____13.0____52.3

Offense______L3 %____L4 %
A-2-3-4_______4.2_____19.3
A-2-3-J_______3.9_____20.2
A-4-5-J_______3.9_____21.1

A-2-3-4 is best for expected averages by 1.03pts and is slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 5-J to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.