March 26, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Jazzselke
70*-70  ?
75%
9%
6%
4%
2%
1%
0%
Total votes: 224

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

JQT
2779 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Thursday 3:16 AM
Toss (2 3) might have to 'duke it out' with Toss (4 5) today, but Toss (5 J) beats them both silly!
horus93
685 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Thursday 3:39 AM
Pretty straightforward today, this has the highest min and could peg well. Offense to the cut
mrob2199
282 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Thursday 3:58 AM
Ughhh brutal cut here-as a general rule I don’t like keeping A234 together-the max cut is only 10 and it is a hand which has the potential to give up a lot of pegging points-which we certainly don’t want in this spot-an ace,2 or 3 gives us a double run,and the 3 could also give us a double run in our crib-this is also what I call an insurance hold-if we cut a 6-which would kill our A-2-3-j hold-it would fill in our 4/5 crib discard-the Jack provides us with an out card in the pegging as well-obviously the 7 cut is a punch to the gut-peg aggressively now to try to get as close to 90 as we can-since the cut didn’t do us any favors
thelawnet
95 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Thursday 4:09 AM
see 21st March for similar hand.

Happy to be tossing points to my crib while keeping my run intact.
dec
4824 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 4:39 AM
I understand they might peg a few also but I like as many opportunities to get to that 85 mark trying to set up for fourth street positions is important to me. Play on especially after that cut. dec
mfetchCT425
493 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Thursday 5:12 AM
Used to toss 2-3 from this hand but now like the 5-any face, so will toss 5-J here. Max is only 10 for this hold, but every cut does help us. We also guarantee a decent hand even with thr 8 or 9 cut. If pone is holding the common hand of all faces or a 5 and three faces, this hold can peg at the end of a pegging sequence. Opponent leads a face, we respond with the 4, which takes the 5 off the table. Opponent has to come back with another face making the count 24. We then can play our 3,2,A for a run of 3 and a go.
Gougie00
4218 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 5:30 AM
Face-Five. Lousy cut. Try to parlay the 3-2-A
james500
2443 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 5:39 AM
I'm guessing that with an Ace and a 4 out of circulation, 2-3 might not be as strong as usual?
Rosemarie44
1542 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 5:46 AM
Toss 5-J to our crib beats 4-5 and 2-3 retention cards.
Jazzselke
1423 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 5:55 AM
Similar to a puzzle last week, Ras and others have always brought up the pegging value of A234 as the dealer. Also J5 is a top 5 throw to the crib. I always hesitate on this throw because I am not as crazy with keeping A234 for the reasons specified by Rob above. My purpose for posting this puzzle was to see arguments for alternatives to play this classic hand. 23 and 45 have always seemed intriguing; cutting a 7 doesn't help any of the choices!
King Richard
2808 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 9:22 AM
With the Pone also at Hole 70, I’m not concerned about keeping an escape card here. The King just wants to keep scooting down the board. While I have itchy fingers wanted to grab and pitch 2-3, a cooler head must prevail. Everything hits A234 and as Jazzselke says, J5 is a Top 5 toss - DeLynn shows it tied with 2-3 at 6.9:average.
Ras2829
3674 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Thursday 1:05 PM
At hole 70 dealer of this hand needs to get down the board. It's off. off., off as two pegs for me are of greater benefit to me than a pairs royal for six would be of benefit to n/d of this hand. BTW it matters not whether choosing offense or defense, the A-2-3-4 performs at a higher level than any other choice. Holding A-2-3-J with 4-5 discard would be the second choice, starting with 7 points. So I am choosing a BOLD pegging strategy and will play on the lead.
jmath714
713 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Thursday 2:27 PM
Guess I am alone here with 2-3 in the crib. Always try to pick what I would genuinely do, and hopefully learn why I am wrong.

Would really like to see the pure numbers from the computer here.
Coeurdelion
4139 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 3:30 PM
I think it's between A-2-3-4 (5-J), A-4-5-J (2-3) and A-2-3-J (4-5):

A-2-3-4: 4pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 11pts

A-4-5-J: 4pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10¾pts

A-2-3-J: 5pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 11½pts

Potential:

A-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts.

A-4-5-J: Improves with AAA, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 333, 444, 555, 6666 + 15xXs = 31 cuts. Plus 11 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

A-2-3-J: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 9999 + 15xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8/9/12/14pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, JJJ = 15 cuts. Plus 11 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

We're at 3rd street positional hole and Pone is short of the 86pts where they would like to be but they are already at 70pts. So I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think A-2-3-4 will peg best with A-2-3-J next best.

Summary:

A-2-3-J is ¼pt best for starting values by ½pt. A-2-3-4 has most cuts for improvement and more for 7-10pts but A-2-3-J has the best maximum of 14pts. A-4-5-J and A-2-3-J have the benefit of the nob potential but A-2-3-4 should peg best. So I'll throw the 5-J.
HalscribCLX
3909 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 3:33 PM
At 70*-70 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

______________Our
Offense__Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
A-2-3-4___8.11+3.80+6.91=18.82____15.0____56.5
A-2-3-J___8.02+3.46+6.31=17.79____14.4____53.4
A-4-5-J___7.39+3.54+6.45=17.38____13.0____52.3

Offense______L3 %____L4 %
A-2-3-4_______4.2_____19.3
A-2-3-J_______3.9_____20.2
A-4-5-J_______3.9_____21.1

A-2-3-4 is best for expected averages by 1.03pts and is slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 5-J to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.