March 24, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
55*-52  ?
38%
37%
22%
0%
0%
Total votes: 225

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

JQT
2779 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 3:18 AM
Doing Dealer Discard Drills with Max Kassler's old Cribbage Solitaire Program teaches one to Toss (A 3) from such an arrangement, since it offers the best chance to go from where it is, to generating what it might become, after adding Pone's Discard as well as the Cut.

But I'm not too thrilled with that Cut; we have to hope that Pone 'threw us a bone' in the form of an Ace or Deuce, or even a 4 Card.
dec
4824 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:49 AM
Keep points. defense . Hope for Ace thru four fills. dec
mrob2199
282 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 4:00 AM
Good puzzle today Ras-there are 3 possibilities which one can make a case for to the crib-A-3,6-9,or QQ-I feel that the 6-9 to the crib with the A-3-QQ gives me the best chance for something to help somewhere-an ace,2,4 or 5 will help the hand while any middle card provides at least some hope for the crib-obviously the 10 cut is not what we are looking for here
Rosemarie44
1542 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 4:37 AM
Agree that we can make the case for tossing A-3, 6-9, and Q-Q. Not likely that pairs in the crib are too helpful. So we are down to 6-9 or A-3. Expected averages have A-3 the winner here. Ras's small hand rule I believe is to hold and discard attempting to increase the value of both the hand and the crib. So this is it. Also I like this combination of cards in the hand and still we 2 points in the crib. Good puzzle Ras.
mfetchCT425
493 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 5:43 AM
I like 6-9 to our crib slightly better than A-3 or Q-Q, but I think it’s close. All the options start us out with 4 points before the cut. This hold does have an outside shot for 9 points with a 2 cut. And as Rob states above, good chance a cut will help either hand or crib. The two low pegging cards (A,3) may get us some pegging points at the end of a pegging sequence.
Gougie00
4218 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 6:06 AM
I've been tossing the middle cards from this combination for decades. I may learn something today.
james500
2443 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 6:17 AM
Following the point about the "intrinsic value" of discards, as described on here by JQT who references the CribbagePro blog, A-3 should be best for combined values. Queens have no synergy with sixes or nines however, so I'm not too keen on 6-9-Q-Q.

With Pone's bias against discarding Jacks or fives, I'm not that keen on Q-Q either. A-3-6-9 is probably a decent enough hand however, if viewed in isolation.

A half-hearted 6-9 from me.
wasa
1547 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 7:40 AM
Always love tossing a 2-3 to my crib and when I can't I'll try to toss a lone 2 or 3. Here, two low cards, both odd, are a good choice. Keep the points in the hand and let the three extra cards (pone plus cut) help my non-working cards
Jazzselke
1423 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 8:27 AM
Best mix of potential for hand and crib. A3 can work with the Queens, 69 cannot.
Andy (muesli64)
1706 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 8:29 AM
Best way to improve combined yield of hand and crib is to throw A-3. Give those cards a chance to work for us.
horus93
685 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Tuesday 9:03 AM
This site has taught me that it's often best to throw the low cards from these kinds of hands. Offense to the cut
PBatterson
1077 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 9:05 AM
when I agree with rob and mike, I feel a little more confident
UCCF
495 votes

Joined: March 2017

   
Tuesday 9:30 AM
We don't have much, so I'd like to try to peg a little. Tossed the QQ, and maybe my confusing leftover mishmosh will be hard to read during the play.
JRCeagle78
845 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Tuesday 9:40 AM
I am much more likely to receive help from the pone if I toss 9-6, (e.g. 9-K, 6-K, etc.), than Q-Q. We are not in a great position with very few points. We may need the A-3 for important peggers during the play.
cribbagepogo
2960 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 2:20 PM
Wish I had the 3/2 others saw for my crib.
Coeurdelion
4139 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 5:15 PM
Three options I think. 6-9-Q-Q (A-3), A-3-Q-Q (6-9) and A-3-6-9 (Q-Q):

6-9-Q-Q: 4pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.52) = 8¼pts

A-3-Q-Q: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 7¼pts

A-3-6-9: 2pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.79) = 6¾pts

Potential:

6-9-Q-Q: Improves with 5555, 666, 999, QQ = 12 cuts = 12/46 = 26.1% up to 8pts with all cuts.

A-3-Q-Q: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 5555, QQ = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8/9pts with AAA, 2222, 4444, 5555, QQ = 17 cuts.

A-3-6-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 5555, 666, 8888, 999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/7/8pts with 2222, 333, 5555, 666, 999 = 17 cuts.

Position:

We're 11pts ahead of the 44pt positional hole and Pone is 8pts short of reaching the 70pt positional hole on average for next deal so I'll play Defense to consolidate our position.

Pegging:

A-3-6-9 will peg well and to a lesser degree A-3-Q-Q but playing Defense perhaps 6-9-Q-Q will peg best.

Summary:

6-9-Q-Q has the best starting value by 1pt and A-3-6-9 the lowest. However A-3-6-9 has the most cuts for improvement and 17 cuts for 6-8pts. It also should peg well, I think, even playing Defense. Will it catch up the 1½pts on 6-9-Q-Q? I think it will so I'll throw the Q-Q.
HalscribCLX
3909 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 5:18 PM
At 55*-52 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense__Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W5 %____W6 %
6-9-Q-Q___5.04+(-1.98)+4.50=7.56____35.6____58.1
A-3-Q-Q___4.00+(-1.98)+5.18=7.20____34.5____57.7
A-3-6-9___4.00+(-1.87)+4.55=6.68____33.9____55.3

Defense_____L5 %____L6 %
6-9-Q-Q______21.1____22.0
A-3-Q-Q______20.2____22.1
A-3-6-9______23.1____24.9

6-9-Q-Q is best for expected averages by 0.36pt. and is slightly best for Win %s although A-3-Q-Q is very slightly best for Loss %s. Even so I'll select A-3 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
3674 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 8:13 PM
If you noticed my reply to horus93 above, could see HalscribCLX choice ahead of time as have often noticed the cribbot holding this hand or similar when dealing. I play thousands of games annually with the Hal Mueller creations. This puzzle is from one of those games. Sorry I cannot bring myself as dealer to hold 6-9-Q-Q or similar. Predictably I will put two points in the crib and play two points in hand. So it then comes down to which cards have the best pegging potential. The A-3-6-9 gives up fewer peg points to opponent when choosing a defense pegging strategy and gains more points in an offensive pegging strategy. So it's goodbye to the Q-Q. Appreciate all the insights shared by so many this day.
dgergens
529 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Wednesday 12:41 AM
Wow, Ras & Coeurdelion disagree with Hal, don't see that too often. But I agree with what Ras, that was essentially my thought process.