March 23, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Goatman
53*-60  ?
72%
12%
7%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 254

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

dec
4824 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:20 AM
We could still decide on the pegging which I nght opt for a more offensive stance here. Especially after the cut I think 69-70 is a attainable goal here. It was opt in the beginning but now I like offense here. dec
thelawnet
95 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Monday 3:46 AM
without the flush this would require a bit of thought, but with A4, 5 and J suited, this is a 2 second decision for me....
mrob2199
282 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Monday 5:14 AM
Interesting puzzle today Goatman-we need a good hand here but we also want to limit the pone too-the flush hold gives us 8 to start and numerous cards to augment it-not crazy about J-9 to my crib but I prefer the pegging flexibility of the A-4-5–J at this position
Rosemarie44
1542 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 5:18 AM
It pays to Flush as Ras always says. Chance from 8 points to 15 points. More cuts to increase this hold.

Presently there are only 3 confirmed cases where I live. A total of 90 cases in Maine. Stay well.
JQT
2779 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 5:41 AM
In addition to holding the FLUSH after Toss (9 J) today, it looks like we may have a few additional discards to look at, choices such as Toss (5 9), Toss (5 J), Toss (J J), or even Toss (A 4).

A FLUSH almost always allows us to peg more deceptively, more defensively, and this benefit, combined with the fact that we often get help from those additional same-suited cards during the Cut, in my experience usually adds up to a Full Point of value when retaining such a hand, which I shall do here. After we decide to keep said FLUSH and Toss (9 J), I believe we might even get a skosh *more* help than that additional Full Point today!

RAS has coached many of us to retain those FLUSHES and to do so more often, and research and results have borne out his advice to be right on target. I was fortunate enough to be allowed to take possession of RAS' actual living Cribbage Class "Great Big Blue Cribbage Notebook" way back in 2011 (or was it 2012 ... or was it ... BOTH?!)

Actually, it belongs and should be designated and destined to end up in the Cribbage Hall of Fame Library, and so he's lucky I ever sent it back! But I am even more fortunate for having been given the chance to look at it, as it's a complete and thoroughly-well-organized distillation of a lifetime of time-tested helpful information about 'This Game of Ours' called Cribbage.

And from where I sit in this self-imposed state of quarantine here on this Monday Morning in March 2020, I can still look over at the 'All in One' Printer that I used to copy every single page of it; and thus, thanks to RAS, I have a very prized "Great Big Blue Cribbage Notebook" of my own, which now stands at attention very proudly, ensconced upon my Cribbage Books and Notes shelf within the Cribbage Wing of my "Brain Games" Suite of my apartment (well, okay, it's actually one whole shelf in my pantry ; - )

I want to thank RAS for his very kind comments yesterday: I did indeed sponsor a Fifty Free New ACC Memberships Program on August 10, 2016, incidentally right during the last Olympic Games, which sadly will probably be delayed, altered, postponed, or cancelled during this Year of the Novel Corona Virus Pandemic. (I suppose that now I'll have to add yet another chapter to that life's work of mine known as my Great Cribbage Novel, and perhaps during this 'lockdown' I might even somehow summon the courage to actually start working on it!).

I believe the ACC 'snagged' about two or three dozen new memberships right from this 'Hand of the Day' pool. And as stipulated, I told them to keep the balance of the gift as a donation. Perhaps this summer I can come up with another idea to get more people "infected" (too soon, I know...) to join us, especially prospective younger people, to have them hop aboard (I should probably renew my own lapsed membership status as well!) You can examine the details of this 2016 recruitment program if you read the postings from the month of August 2016. REF: https://www.dailycribbagehand.org/show.php?date=2016/08/10
mfetchCT425
493 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Monday 5:44 AM
Like the flush for a few reasons:
1. More cuts for improvement.
2. More pegging flexibility.

9-J to the crib isn’t great, but we may get lucky in there if dealer tossed something like A-10, 10-Q.

Would pair a 4 or J lead here. Any other face, would play my 5.
Andy (muesli64)
1706 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Monday 5:57 AM
Keep flush. Substantially better.
james500
2443 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 6:13 AM
Another diamond flush.

5-9-J-J (A-4) interests me though.
JRCeagle78
845 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Monday 6:52 AM
Hate Jc-9 discard. I like the flush. Since the 4 starter card increases our hand, it allows me to be more aggressive with my pegging. I'll play the odds and match a 4 lead, play my 5 on an 8 or 9 lead.
Gougie00
4218 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 7:30 AM
Today I look like the only one to toss the A-4 and take my chance with the JJ95. Instead of 12 + ?, I should have 6 + 6 in the hand and crib.

Day 10 of isolation. Who besides me is getting bored?
Ras2829
3674 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 12:28 PM
Diamonds sparkle I guess. Are they a girl's best friend? Kind of amazing that in the past week puzzles from a variety of sources have featured a diamond flush four times. One would think that another suit might have ended up in the mix. This flush has too much upside potential for growth to split. Also the A-4 is not worth a sacrifice of two points in hand score to put in the crib. Had the two small cards been 2-3, they would have been worth the sacrifice in hand score. As mfetchCT425 pointed out in an earlier post would pair a four or Jack lead. At hole 53 am thinking offense. Need to move down the board as much as possible. With opponent at hole 60, will exercise just a bit of caution. With this positional disadvantage, just might be choosing an offense strategy for much of the remainder of this game.
dgergens
529 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Monday 12:34 PM
Since y'all coined the phrase "it pays to flush", I definitely have noticed that during actual play, a flush most always does really well for me.
RubyTuesday
380 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Monday 3:46 PM
Diamonds are a girl’s best friend!
Coeurdelion
4139 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 5:03 PM
I think there are three likely keeps - obviously the flush A-4-5-JD (9-JC), 5-9-J-J (A-4) and A-4-J-J (5-9):

A-4-5-JD: 8pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.97) = 12pts

5-9-J-J: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 11¼pts

A-4-J-J: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 11¼pts

Potential:

A-4-5-JD: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 999 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 11/12/13/14pts with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666 + 14xXs = 31 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 2pts extra for the flush and nob = 2x9/46 = 0.39pt.

5-9-J-J: Improves with AAA, 555, 6666, 999 + 14xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 12/14pts with 555, 10101010, JJ = 9 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds and 12 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 21/46 = 0.46pt.

A-4-J-J: Improves with AAA, 444, 555 + 14xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 10/12pts with AAA, 444, 555, JJ = 11 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds and 12 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 21/46 = 0.46pt.

Position:

We're 9pts past positional hole and Pone is on target to reach 70pts this deal. So I'll play Defense to defend my positional advantage and hopefully prevent Pone reaching position.

Pegging:

The flush should peg best and be hard to read.

Summary:

The flush has the best starting value by ¾pts and all three hands have roughly ½pt extra for a diamond/club cut. The flush also has most cuts for improvement and should peg best. So I'll throw 9-JC.
HalscribCLX
3909 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 5:05 PM
At 53*-60 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense__Hand__Pegs____Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
A-4-5-JD__11.43+(-1.93)+3.79=13.29____53.7____45.4
5-9-J-J____8.59+(-2.09)+5.26=11.76____45.4____42.3
A-4-J-J____8.28+(-1.98)+5.26=11.56____43.3____43.9

Defense______L5 %____L6 %
A-4-5-JD______51.8____36.7
5-9-J-J_______50.4____40.7
A-4-J-J_______47.5____39.2

The flush is best for expected averages by 1.53pts and is significantly best for Win %s. A-4-J-J is lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select 9-JC to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.