March 22, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0*-0  ?
47%
28%
13%
2%
2%
2%
1%
0%
Total votes: 202

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

JQT
2779 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 3:02 AM
I would generally prefer Toss (2 T) over Toss (2 K), because the Ten Card can form a RUN in three different ways: 8-9-T, 9-T-J, T-J-Q where as the King can only form a RUN one way: J-Q-K.

The preponderance of players who perform "King Stuffing" into their Own Cribs is however a belief that persists, and it gets reinforced when good results do occur, and yet gets forgotten when the results are poor.

But this arrangement is a bit unique, and thus I think it may create an exception, because the 8 Card forms a nice, hopeful "gap" with that Ten Card, if and when a 9 Card is Cut.

And therefore, for that reason and that reason only, I'll Keep (A 6 8 T) and Toss (2 K) today. Now, if that King were a Queen instead, then ... but, it isn't!

Note: You get Bonus Points if you see that, when Pone holds the ubiquitous Keep (6 7 8 9), then after leading the 6 Card we shall, as the Dealer (if we respond aggressively and PAIR it), could out-peg Pone 6-to-1!

And even after Pone leads the 8 Card from that same arrangement, it could very similarly be that we out-peg Pone 5-to-0! Not too bad, for what might be only a Four-Point Hand, and possibly a Zero-Point Crib, to start the game.
Jazzselke
1423 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Sunday 5:04 AM
Not throwing K10, so K2 it is. Great pegging advice by JQT. Sometimes pairing the initial lead sets up the whole pegging sequence; of course, we take are taking a calculated risk. Knowing your opponent's tendencies can often be helpful.
james500
2443 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 5:10 AM
The only points in this hand come from A-6-8, so I think it best to keep those three together and discard two of the others: 2-T, 2-K or T-K.

Not too excited by any of those options, but 2-K seems the best of a bad bunch. It isn't the dreadful T-K, and it allows me to keep the gapped 8-T together in hand.
Rosemarie44
1542 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 5:19 AM
Going with this hold and retention with today's hand. Expect I might see a King coming across the board in my crib.
mrob2199
282 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Sunday 5:27 AM
Pretty cut and dried today IMO-keep the 2 points and throw 2-k in the crib-there is a good chance the cut will help us somewhere-JQT gave some pegging advice that could be useful but is a bit of unnecessary risk taking-if a 6 is led there is a very good chance pone has a 6 or 9 backing it up so play the 10 and try to get a 9 response which we would then 31 with our 6-and still have an 8 left for a probable middle card lead to start the next pegging sequence-if we pair the 6 and it’s natched we are in a world of trouble-remember it’s only the first hand-we don’t have to get to any set hole-in general when you have a poor hand,which obviously this is,try to bring your opponent down in the muck with you lol-don’t take unncesssry pegging chances to make up for those points
dec
4824 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 5:37 AM
Agree I will play this hand and hope opponent also has low in points. Is'nt the first dealer theory is that the opponent needs to have a lot of points. Things could be worse if we are too overly agressive here. Defense. dec
thelawnet
95 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Sunday 5:42 AM
Misread this as pone's crib on which case KT is a horrible toss. As our crib start with 68A and toss K over T in order to keep the 8 and T in touching distance
Gougie00
4218 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 6:11 AM
Yuck! I don't like 10-K to my own crib so I held the 10 just in case a 9 was cut.

Obnoxious offense, because we'll be way short.
glmccuskey
3154 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Sunday 7:51 AM
With a hand like this I tend to just keep the best peggers. If your opponent has middle cards you could get a 15 for 2, run for 4 and a 31 for 2. It’s a plan anyway.
cwed
1036 votes

Joined: October 2014

   
Sunday 9:27 AM
While toss 10-K gives me the best peggers (A-2-6-8), I'm unwilling to totally write off my crib, so I toss 2-K and hope to find a 3 in the crib that the pone didn't want.
RubyTuesday
380 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Sunday 9:37 AM
I threw K 10 because although it’s not going to do much good for my crib I felt it left me with the best hand for pegging.
horus93
685 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Sunday 10:05 AM
I definitely considered 2-K but this will peg better. We have to play offense with such lame cards even though we start at +8/-8.
Coeurdelion
4139 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 2:09 PM
I think the choice may well be between A-6-8-10 (2-K) and A-6-8-K (2-10) but perhaps A-2-10-K (6-8) is worth looking at?:

A-6-8-10: 2pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.52) = 5½pts

A-6-8-K: 2pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.55) = 5½pts

A-2-10-K: 0pt + 4½pts (Schell: 4.63) = 4½pts

Potential:

A-6-8-10: Improves with AAA, 4444, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 9999, 101010 = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 6/7pts with AAA, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 = 17 cuts.

A-6-8-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 9999, KKK = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 6/7pts with AAA, 666, 7777, 888 = 13 cuts.

A-2-10-K: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 5555, 101010, KKK = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 4/6/7pts with 222, 3333, 4444, 5555 = 15 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer I would normally play Defense but we have a poor hand so I may be more inclined to play cautious offense to try to reach positional hole of 8pts.

Pegging:

I think A-2-10-K may peg slightly best.

Summary:

A-6-8-10 and A-6-8-K have the same number of cuts for improvement and the same starting value but A-6-8-10 has more cuts for 6/7pts. A-2-10-K is 1pt behind in starting value but has 24 cuts for improvement and 15 cuts for 4-7pts and should peg best. Even so I'll stick with A-6-8-10 and discard 2-K.
HalscribCLX
3909 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 2:11 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense__Hand__Pegs__Crib__Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-6-8-10__4.13+(-2.09)+3.53=5.57____25.4____39.4
A-6-8-K___3.87+(-2.04)+3.53=5.36____24.7____38.8
A-2-6-8___4.43+(-1.89)+2.79=5.33____24.6____38.2
A-2-10-K__2.09+(-1.89)+4.77=4.97____23.1____36.8

Defense_____L9 %____L10 %
A-6-8-10_____25.8____32.9
A-6-8-K______25.6____33.3
A-2-6-8______26.4____34.2
A-2-10-K_____25.2____34.7

A-2-6-10 is best for expected averages by 0.21pt and is slightly best for Win %s and very slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-K to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
3674 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 7:31 PM
As dealer of first hand, need 7 points to have a 50/50 chance to win this game. So am choosing def., def., def and play off the lead although would pair a 10. There are significant differences between discarding 10-K and 2-K. The differences are great enough that they offset the slight advantage for pegging with A-2-6-8. The 10-K (888) 2.836 (91/91 scores 0-2 50.043% of the time to own crib and scores 8 or more 14.877%. The 2-K 3.565 (676) 72/91 scores 0-2 40.382% and tallies 8 or more 19.609%. So the 2-K is 20% les likely to score 0-2 than 10-K and is 35% more likely to score 8 points or more. Emphasize that these umbers apply only to own crib. These and other discards score more on the other side of the board. The difference in crib averages is profound. On your side of the board, there are 47/91 discards that score less than 4.0. On the other side of the board, there are 2/91 that score less than 4.0 points.