March 22, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0*-0  ?
47%
28%
13%
2%
2%
2%
1%
0%
Total votes: 202
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:02 AM
I would generally prefer Toss (2 T) over Toss (2 K), because the Ten Card can form a RUN in three different ways: 8-9-T, 9-T-J, T-J-Q where as the King can only form a RUN one way: J-Q-K.

The preponderance of players who perform "King Stuffing" into their Own Cribs is however a belief that persists, and it gets reinforced when good results do occur, and yet gets forgotten when the results are poor.

But this arrangement is a bit unique, and thus I think it may create an exception, because the 8 Card forms a nice, hopeful "gap" with that Ten Card, if and when a 9 Card is Cut.

And therefore, for that reason and that reason only, I'll Keep (A 6 8 T) and Toss (2 K) today. Now, if that King were a Queen instead, then ... but, it isn't!

Note: You get Bonus Points if you see that, when Pone holds the ubiquitous Keep (6 7 8 9), then after leading the 6 Card we shall, as the Dealer (if we respond aggressively and PAIR it), could out-peg Pone 6-to-1!

And even after Pone leads the 8 Card from that same arrangement, it could very similarly be that we out-peg Pone 5-to-0! Not too bad, for what might be only a Four-Point Hand, and possibly a Zero-Point Crib, to start the game.
james500 says: Hi John, hope things are going well. Out of interest, what would you do if the K were a Q? I'd be inclined to choose T-Q, but with Pone's strong bias against discarding Jacks or fives, I'm not sure how prudent a choice that is? As you know, occasionally on here we'll have a puzzle that allows an analysis and comparison of K-Q vs Q-T. Neither tend to be particularly valuable, and for that reason I'd suggest. Some lovely comments yesterday about Mike by the way, you're a very kind and generous man. I hope he's well.
JQT says: I agree with choosing (T Q) as now we have the "gap" cards in Our Crib instead of Hand, which means we can get that helpful Jack from not just the Cut, but from our Opponent as well. And additionally, we would then get to retain our Ace-Deuce together, an added bonus. Yes, I enjoyed Mike's visit, since my social life over nearly the past fifty years has been identical to that of the past week. It's fairly common that I do not speak with or even see another person for weeks at a time, since talking or things like chewing trigger horrendous painful attacks. But I learned to deal with it and be easy on myself from a very young age, so while I lack some social skills I think I have been blessed in return for learning how to adapt to stress and quite severe isolation. Mike found it necessary to back off from Cribbage for a while, and I both understand and respect that. I often kid Chess players in this regard, by saying that "Chess does not produce madness; Chess reveals madness." Cribbage is not Chess, but I believe that it shares some similarities among those who are attracted to it. Both "brain" games encourage and develop (as well as reward) discipline, and that can be of great help in facing what we are about to face around the globe. It's always nice to share a dialog with you, james500.
Ras2829 says: JQT is a wonderfully generous soul. Recall a few years back when American Cribbage Congress memberships were waning, this same fellow from upstate New York offered to pay the annual dues for a new member over the course of a year as I recall. Don't know how many takers he had for the free membership. That was truly a generous gesture. Thanks much and we've chatted by E-mail years past about his chronic debilitating ailment. It's been a privilege to rub shoulders with such a magnificent man. Keep on peggin' MAN!!!
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 5:04 AM
Not throwing K10, so K2 it is. Great pegging advice by JQT. Sometimes pairing the initial lead sets up the whole pegging sequence; of course, we take are taking a calculated risk. Knowing your opponent's tendencies can often be helpful.
SallyAnn3 says: I did toss 10-K, figuring I had more cuts to help me,and more pegging possibilities. Id lead the 8
mrob2199 says: Sally it is your own crib
SallyAnn3 says: whooooops! I must be losing it after being stuck in the house for 9 days, and playing on the computer
james500
3916 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 5:10 AM
The only points in this hand come from A-6-8, so I think it best to keep those three together and discard two of the others: 2-T, 2-K or T-K.

Not too excited by any of those options, but 2-K seems the best of a bad bunch. It isn't the dreadful T-K, and it allows me to keep the gapped 8-T together in hand.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 5:19 AM
Going with this hold and retention with today's hand. Expect I might see a King coming across the board in my crib.
mrob2199
1429 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 5:27 AM
Pretty cut and dried today IMO-keep the 2 points and throw 2-k in the crib-there is a good chance the cut will help us somewhere-JQT gave some pegging advice that could be useful but is a bit of unnecessary risk taking-if a 6 is led there is a very good chance pone has a 6 or 9 backing it up so play the 10 and try to get a 9 response which we would then 31 with our 6-and still have an 8 left for a probable middle card lead to start the next pegging sequence-if we pair the 6 and it’s natched we are in a world of trouble-remember it’s only the first hand-we don’t have to get to any set hole-in general when you have a poor hand,which obviously this is,try to bring your opponent down in the muck with you lol-don’t take unncesssry pegging chances to make up for those points
SallyAnn3 says: 1-1
cwed says: Rob: I do that a lot anyway--bring my opponent down in the muck!
mrob2199 says: It can be a winning strategy!
JQT says: I would uncharacteristically PAIR the 6 Card Lead, because we have a very poor Hand worth only Four Points, and a Crib that might be WORSE. A 6 Card Lead often broadcasts a possibly parrying 9 Card that is 'backing it up' but the odds do favor that our PAIRING of that 6 Card Lead will NOT entail PAIRS Royal (just due to numbers). Any First Dealer Advantage we might have enjoyed in this game can *only* now come from our pegging, and if we get aggressive, yes, that does involve some risk ... but the risk seems already inherent. I might even PAIR an 8 Card Lead, although now I'm "Dancing on Very Thin Ice." Maybe wearing a mask will help (?)
SallyAnn3 says: You are full of muck, Dave lolol. But still my number one coach, It balances out eventually.
cwed says: Sally: I wear the #1 coach badge with honor!
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 5:37 AM
Agree I will play this hand and hope opponent also has low in points. Is'nt the first dealer theory is that the opponent needs to have a lot of points. Things could be worse if we are too overly agressive here. Defense. dec
thelawnet
262 votes

Joined: January 2020
 
 
 
Sunday 5:42 AM
Misread this as pone's crib on which case KT is a horrible toss. As our crib start with 68A and toss K over T in order to keep the 8 and T in touching distance
thelawnet says: Horrible for anyone who has it, I should say
thelawnet says: Horrible for anyone who has it, I should say
thelawnet says: Horrible for anyone who has it, I should say
Ras2829 says: Hi thelawnet: Yesterday when holding A-2-3-4, you asked a good question. How would I respond to a lead of A-2-3-4? Would play a trey on Ace lead and Ace on trey opener. Would play a deuce on four lead and the four on a deuce lead. With the smaller cards that has the added advantage of not allowing opponent to score 15-2 as well.
Ras2829 says: Hi thelawnet: Yesterday when holding A-2-3-4, you asked a good question. How would I respond to a lead of A-2-3-4? Would play a trey on Ace lead and Ace on trey opener. Would play a deuce on four lead and the four on a deuce lead. With the smaller cards that has the added advantage of not allowing opponent to score 15-2 as well.
Ras2829 says: Hi thelawnet: Yesterday when holding A-2-3-4, you asked a good question. How would I respond to a lead of A-2-3-4? Would play a trey on Ace lead and Ace on trey opener. Would play a deuce on four lead and the four on a deuce lead. With the smaller cards that has the added advantage of not allowing opponent to score 15-2 as well.
Gougie00
5723 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 6:11 AM
Yuck! I don't like 10-K to my own crib so I held the 10 just in case a 9 was cut.

Obnoxious offense, because we'll be way short.
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Sunday 7:51 AM
With a hand like this I tend to just keep the best peggers. If your opponent has middle cards you could get a 15 for 2, run for 4 and a 31 for 2. It’s a plan anyway.
SallyAnn3 says: Thank you--I feel redeemed now :)
cwed
1355 votes

Joined: October 2014
 
 
 
Sunday 9:27 AM
While toss 10-K gives me the best peggers (A-2-6-8), I'm unwilling to totally write off my crib, so I toss 2-K and hope to find a 3 in the crib that the pone didn't want.
RubyTuesday
908 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Sunday 9:37 AM
I threw K 10 because although it’s not going to do much good for my crib I felt it left me with the best hand for pegging.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Sunday 10:05 AM
I definitely considered 2-K but this will peg better. We have to play offense with such lame cards even though we start at +8/-8.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 2:09 PM
I think the choice may well be between A-6-8-10 (2-K) and A-6-8-K (2-10) but perhaps A-2-10-K (6-8) is worth looking at?:

A-6-8-10: 2pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.52) = 5½pts

A-6-8-K: 2pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.55) = 5½pts

A-2-10-K: 0pt + 4½pts (Schell: 4.63) = 4½pts

Potential:

A-6-8-10: Improves with AAA, 4444, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 9999, 101010 = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 6/7pts with AAA, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 = 17 cuts.

A-6-8-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 9999, KKK = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 6/7pts with AAA, 666, 7777, 888 = 13 cuts.

A-2-10-K: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 5555, 101010, KKK = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 4/6/7pts with 222, 3333, 4444, 5555 = 15 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer I would normally play Defense but we have a poor hand so I may be more inclined to play cautious offense to try to reach positional hole of 8pts.

Pegging:

I think A-2-10-K may peg slightly best.

Summary:

A-6-8-10 and A-6-8-K have the same number of cuts for improvement and the same starting value but A-6-8-10 has more cuts for 6/7pts. A-2-10-K is 1pt behind in starting value but has 24 cuts for improvement and 15 cuts for 4-7pts and should peg best. Even so I'll stick with A-6-8-10 and discard 2-K.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 2:11 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense__Hand__Pegs__Crib__Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-6-8-10__4.13+(-2.09)+3.53=5.57____25.4____39.4
A-6-8-K___3.87+(-2.04)+3.53=5.36____24.7____38.8
A-2-6-8___4.43+(-1.89)+2.79=5.33____24.6____38.2
A-2-10-K__2.09+(-1.89)+4.77=4.97____23.1____36.8

Defense_____L9 %____L10 %
A-6-8-10_____25.8____32.9
A-6-8-K______25.6____33.3
A-2-6-8______26.4____34.2
A-2-10-K_____25.2____34.7

A-2-6-10 is best for expected averages by 0.21pt and is slightly best for Win %s and very slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-K to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 7:31 PM
As dealer of first hand, need 7 points to have a 50/50 chance to win this game. So am choosing def., def., def and play off the lead although would pair a 10. There are significant differences between discarding 10-K and 2-K. The differences are great enough that they offset the slight advantage for pegging with A-2-6-8. The 10-K (888) 2.836 (91/91 scores 0-2 50.043% of the time to own crib and scores 8 or more 14.877%. The 2-K 3.565 (676) 72/91 scores 0-2 40.382% and tallies 8 or more 19.609%. So the 2-K is 20% les likely to score 0-2 than 10-K and is 35% more likely to score 8 points or more. Emphasize that these umbers apply only to own crib. These and other discards score more on the other side of the board. The difference in crib averages is profound. On your side of the board, there are 47/91 discards that score less than 4.0. On the other side of the board, there are 2/91 that score less than 4.0 points.