February 15, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Goatman
111*-104  ?
64%
17%
7%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 167
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:00 AM
Needing just Ten Points as the Dealer, it should actually be quite difficult NOT to score enough and WIN today!

And with Pone sitting 'way out yonder' at Hole 104 and needing Seventeen Points to beat us to the punch bowl, it makes me wonder if this puzzle was perchance submitted WITH THE SCORES REVERSED?!

But, let's play it as it was submitted: I'll Toss (3 4) for its well-known "Close to Five Points" average Crib Value, as this gives us adequate insurance that, simply by the law of averages, Our Crib should take us "the other half of the way" home.

But I also daresay that we could probably stow *ANY* two cards into Our Crib here, and still likely WIN, since even if we come up short, as long as Our Opponent is also 'shy' of reaching the Finish Line, we'll enjoy "First Hand Show" during any Next Deal.

It's a shame, because if we simply 'reversed the scores' and either made this (111-104*) or (104*-111), in BOTH CASES I believe this would actually be an interesting puzzle.

And therefore, just for kicks:

At (111-104*), I think I would both offensively and defensively try something collectively useful like Toss (A 9), which would be quite embarrassing after that Ace is Cut, so maybe it would have been worth risking Toss (3 4), who knows?

And, at (104*-111), I believe that I would also Toss (3 4) as in the actual puzzle, and yet Toss (3 5) might mysteriously also work well, too.
JQT says: I really think that the "Who Is the Dealer?" got entered backwards here, so I suspect that (111-104*) was the intended puzzle.
Goatman says: Whom the dealer was is correct. I knew I would have enough to go out with hand and crib. I was looking for the best hand so as the pone would not be able to peg the 3 or 4 pegs they may have needed go out...if they had a 12 or 14 hand.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 3:07 AM
I was consternating then I realized it was my crib.
dec
6351 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:16 AM
I know its my crib. I kept this hand to play off. Now the lead if it looks like an Ace to three arrangement to me dodge. dec
james500
3916 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:41 AM
Seventeen is a tough ask for Pone, but not impossible. Defensive pegging here.
Since I have two Aces, it's less likely that they have any, and so cannot pair one.
I'll hide the 5 card in my crib lest it be trapped somehow during the pegging phase.
Ras2829
5145 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:45 AM
The struggle her might be to get that fiver in own crib. Well it's not a good idea. Thinking of combined values (pegs + or -, hand scores starting with the six points (a "sweet 16" and a 3-card eleven), that moves the 3-5 down the list to 4th s place and 5-9 to 5th place. Discards of 3-4, A-9, and A-A all perform better individually than any of those choices to the crib. With opponent 17 points out, will choose an optimal pegging strategy. Once seeing the starter card and knowing that have 12 points in hand, will downshift to SAFE.
JQT says: My-oh-my, you're up very early (or late?); I hope you aren't on-watch for potential flooding or some such task. According to my local news propaganda, the State of Washington is currently under seven feet of water! ; - )
Hillchem says: I wonder how often people suggest a hand that came up in a live game that went catastrophically badly. Especially at this score. Maybe Goatman made a discard that seemed reasonable only to unexpectantly lose the game. Maybe pone had a 16 point hand and pegged one. Maybe pone had a couple aces that got run at the end for 12.
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: The Chehalis River is the river to watch here and he headwaters are in the Willapa Hills. Those streams flowing out of the North Cascades have been beyond flood stage for a while as the freezing level moved up to 6,000 feet after heavy snows down to 2,500 feet with heavy rain to follow. Chehalis means Muddy Banks in Indian jargon. The Chehalis was 19 feet over flood stage in 2006 when 21" of rain fell in 36 hours. Most people along the Chehalis are so used to flooding that they don't even move the lawn furniture up on the porch unless river is expected to be 6' over flood stage.
thelawnet
262 votes

Joined: January 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 5:28 AM
I've tossed the AA because it has the highest guaranteed value (7 points in hand + crib). Therefore we need only 3 points more from pegging and the cut.

After the Ace cut, we are of course home and only need to peg as defensively as possible to guard against the possibility of pone scoring 17 from peg + hand.
RubyTuesday
907 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 6:16 AM
RubyTuesday says: thelawnet says what I thought.
Gougie00
5723 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:06 PM
went defensive
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 3:14 PM
I think it's between A-A-5-9 (3-4), A-A-4-9 (3-5), A-A-3-4 and 3-4-5-9 (A-A):

A-A-5-9: 6pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 11pts

A-A-4-9: 4pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 10pts

A-A-3-4: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 7¼pts

3-4-5-9: 3pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 8¼pts

Potential:

A-A-5-9: Improves with AA, 444, 555, 6666, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 12pts with AA, 555, 999 = 8 cuts.

A-A-4-9: Improves with AA, 2222, 444, 555, 6666, 999 + 16xXs = 35 =35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/12pts with AA, 444, 555, 999 + 16xXs = 27 cuts.

A-A-3-4: Improves with AA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6/8/10pts with AA, 2222, 555, 7777 + 16xXs = 29 cuts.

3-4-5-9: Improves with AA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 6/8/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666 = 17 cuts.

Position:

Pone needs 17pts to get out while we only need 10pts with pegging, hand and crib. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think A-A-5-9, A-A-4-9 and A-A-3-4 will all peg well with the two As and a 3-card magic eleven for the first two.

Summary:

A-A-5-9 has a better starting value by 1pt over A-A-4-9 and although 3-4-5-9 and A-A-3-4 has guaranteed improvement A-A-5-9 has 8 cuts for 12pts compared to 3 for 3-4-5-9 (333). It also should peg well. So I'll throw the 3-4.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:17 PM
At 111*-104 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____Win %s_Loss %s
A-A-4-9___6.78+0.93+5.96=13.68____90.7____9.3
A-A-5-9___7.87+1.17+4.50=13.54____92.1____7.6
A-A-3-4___6.24+1.37+5.34=12.94____88.3___11.7
3-4-5-9___6.07+1.67+4.91=12.65____89.5___10.3

A-A-4-9 is best for expected averages by 0.14pt over A-A-5-9 but A-A-5-9 is slightly better for Win %s. So in this position nearing the end of the game I'll decide based on Win %s and select 3-4 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.