February 15, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Goatman
111*-104  ?
64%
64%
17%
17%
7%
7%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 167
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4515 votes)

Saturday 3:00 AM
Needing just Ten Points as the Dealer, it should actually be quite difficult NOT to score enough and WIN today!

And with Pone sitting 'way out yonder' at Hole 104 and needing Seventeen Points to beat us to the punch bowl, it makes me wonder if this puzzle was perchance submitted WITH THE SCORES REVERSED?!

But, let's play it as it was submitted: I'll Toss (3 4) for its well-known "Close to Five Points" average Crib Value, as this gives us adequate insurance that, simply by the law of averages, Our Crib should take us "the other half of the way" home.

But I also daresay that we could probably stow *ANY* two cards into Our Crib here, and still likely WIN, since even if we come up short, as long as Our Opponent is also 'shy' of reaching the Finish Line, we'll enjoy "First Hand Show" during any Next Deal.

It's a shame, because if we simply 'reversed the scores' and either made this (111-104*) or (104*-111), in BOTH CASES I believe this would actually be an interesting puzzle.

And therefore, just for kicks:

At (111-104*), I think I would both offensively and defensively try something collectively useful like Toss (A 9), which would be quite embarrassing after that Ace is Cut, so maybe it would have been worth risking Toss (3 4), who knows?

And, at (104*-111), I believe that I would also Toss (3 4) as in the actual puzzle, and yet Toss (3 5) might mysteriously also work well, too.
JQT says: I really think that the "Who Is the Dealer?" got entered backwards here, so I suspect that (111-104*) was the intended puzzle.
Goatman says: Whom the dealer was is correct. I knew I would have enough to go out with hand and crib. I was looking for the best hand so as the pone would not be able to peg the 3 or 4 pegs they may have needed go out...if they had a 12 or 14 hand.
dgergens

Joined: January 2018 (940 votes)

Saturday 3:07 AM
I was consternating then I realized it was my crib.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6854 votes)

Saturday 3:16 AM
I know its my crib. I kept this hand to play off. Now the lead if it looks like an Ace to three arrangement to me dodge. dec
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4344 votes)

Saturday 3:41 AM
Seventeen is a tough ask for Pone, but not impossible. Defensive pegging here.
Since I have two Aces, it's less likely that they have any, and so cannot pair one.
I'll hide the 5 card in my crib lest it be trapped somehow during the pegging phase.
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Saturday 3:45 AM
The struggle her might be to get that fiver in own crib. Well it's not a good idea. Thinking of combined values (pegs + or -, hand scores starting with the six points (a "sweet 16" and a 3-card eleven), that moves the 3-5 down the list to 4th s place and 5-9 to 5th place. Discards of 3-4, A-9, and A-A all perform better individually than any of those choices to the crib. With opponent 17 points out, will choose an optimal pegging strategy. Once seeing the starter card and knowing that have 12 points in hand, will downshift to SAFE.
JQT says: My-oh-my, you're up very early (or late?); I hope you aren't on-watch for potential flooding or some such task. According to my local news propaganda, the State of Washington is currently under seven feet of water! ; - )
Hillchem says: I wonder how often people suggest a hand that came up in a live game that went catastrophically badly. Especially at this score. Maybe Goatman made a discard that seemed reasonable only to unexpectantly lose the game. Maybe pone had a 16 point hand and pegged one. Maybe pone had a couple aces that got run at the end for 12.
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: The Chehalis River is the river to watch here and he headwaters are in the Willapa Hills. Those streams flowing out of the North Cascades have been beyond flood stage for a while as the freezing level moved up to 6,000 feet after heavy snows down to 2,500 feet with heavy rain to follow. Chehalis means Muddy Banks in Indian jargon. The Chehalis was 19 feet over flood stage in 2006 when 21" of rain fell in 36 hours. Most people along the Chehalis are so used to flooding that they don't even move the lawn furniture up on the porch unless river is expected to be 6' over flood stage.
thelawnet

Joined: January 2020 (262 votes)

Saturday 5:28 AM
I've tossed the AA because it has the highest guaranteed value (7 points in hand + crib). Therefore we need only 3 points more from pegging and the cut.

After the Ace cut, we are of course home and only need to peg as defensively as possible to guard against the possibility of pone scoring 17 from peg + hand.
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1196 votes)

Saturday 6:16 AM
RubyTuesday says: thelawnet says what I thought.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6170 votes)

Saturday 3:06 PM
went defensive
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Saturday 3:14 PM
I think it's between A-A-5-9 (3-4), A-A-4-9 (3-5), A-A-3-4 and 3-4-5-9 (A-A):

A-A-5-9: 6pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 11pts

A-A-4-9: 4pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 10pts

A-A-3-4: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 7¼pts

3-4-5-9: 3pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 8¼pts

Potential:

A-A-5-9: Improves with AA, 444, 555, 6666, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 12pts with AA, 555, 999 = 8 cuts.

A-A-4-9: Improves with AA, 2222, 444, 555, 6666, 999 + 16xXs = 35 =35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/12pts with AA, 444, 555, 999 + 16xXs = 27 cuts.

A-A-3-4: Improves with AA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6/8/10pts with AA, 2222, 555, 7777 + 16xXs = 29 cuts.

3-4-5-9: Improves with AA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 6/8/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666 = 17 cuts.

Position:

Pone needs 17pts to get out while we only need 10pts with pegging, hand and crib. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think A-A-5-9, A-A-4-9 and A-A-3-4 will all peg well with the two As and a 3-card magic eleven for the first two.

Summary:

A-A-5-9 has a better starting value by 1pt over A-A-4-9 and although 3-4-5-9 and A-A-3-4 has guaranteed improvement A-A-5-9 has 8 cuts for 12pts compared to 3 for 3-4-5-9 (333). It also should peg well. So I'll throw the 3-4.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5702 votes)

Saturday 3:17 PM
At 111*-104 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____Win %s_Loss %s
A-A-4-9___6.78+0.93+5.96=13.68____90.7____9.3
A-A-5-9___7.87+1.17+4.50=13.54____92.1____7.6
A-A-3-4___6.24+1.37+5.34=12.94____88.3___11.7
3-4-5-9___6.07+1.67+4.91=12.65____89.5___10.3

A-A-4-9 is best for expected averages by 0.14pt over A-A-5-9 but A-A-5-9 is slightly better for Win %s. So in this position nearing the end of the game I'll decide based on Win %s and select 3-4 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.