Friday 3:06 AM

Am I reducing my hand score by too much in order to make a safe discard?

   

Friday 3:24 AM

Looks like a three way tie between J-5, 8-8 or J-8. I will play offense here. Ten lead if I would have gotten a cut I would have done the eight. dec

   

Friday 3:30 AM

Do we dare risk Toss (5 J) or Toss (8 8) to begin a game as Pone?

My initial thought upon seeing this arrangement is that at least it's perhaps safer to Toss (8 8) than it would be to Toss (7 7). And BOTH are *probably* safer than Toss (5 J)!

Toss (5 J) has a Crib Value of about 7.8 Points;
Toss (8 8) has a Crib Value of about 6.8 Points;
Toss (8 J) has a Crib Value of about 4.6 Points (all numbers by Schell). If we delve further and look at RAS' Empirical Values: both Toss (5 J) and Toss (8 8) creep beyond (or at least edge up toward) Eight Points, while Toss (8 J) remains much safer at less than Five Points.

It's also worth noting that when RAS looks at the *most notable differences* between his Empirical Data and the vast majority of Crib Value Charts (often compiled by computers), he has discovered that Toss (8 8) measures at least a full point *more dangerous* than the averaged Chart Data, making Toss (8 8) the discard with the highest discrepancy in all of his research!

RAS also places Toss (5 J) as more dangerous than the Chart Data, but only by half a point. I think the message we can probably derive from this is that RAS was usually facing very strong opponents, players who likely had higher Crib Averages and thus could more reliably exploit the risky discards.

And so, let's examine our choices:

We can begin with Keep (8 8 9 T) and Eight Points if we want to endure the hazards of Toss (5 J); or,

We can begin with Keep (5 9 T J) and Seven Points if we can stomach the likes of Toss (8 8); or,

We could begin with Keep (5 8 9 T) and just Five Points and perhaps 'play it safe' after Toss (8 J).

I think today's challenge is probably to determine which of the two extremes is best, and then if you are willing to 'go for it' then you must compare Toss (8 8) with what is maybe an equal or even a higher-risk discard of Toss (5 J).

As First Non Dealer, we want to GET HALF-WAY DOWN FIRST STREET by *any means necessary* and so I believe today's puzzle is a matter of "Pick Your Poison"! I'll pick Toss (8 8), but I cannot say I have any valid data or even experience that shows it to be safer than Toss (5 J).

Although we do start with one less point after Toss (8 8), retaining the Jack on our side of the board is worth half a point (0.25 possible points more for us, and 0.25 points less for the enemy) and I personally think I can peg as well or better with the (5 9 T J) hand, since I can parry a (15=2) by the Dealer. Which means that yes, I'm leading the Jack.

   

Friday 3:57 AM

I'm risking the eights - we are pone - it is the beginning of the game - Offense. Starting with 7 points and a possibility of 15 points.

Let's read previous comments!

   

Friday 5:19 AM

Went with full offense here and kept the double run for chance of max 16 hand. Will lead my 8d.

   

Friday 5:43 AM

I'll curl my nose and toss J5. Lead the 8

   

Friday 6:41 AM

Hopefully this is one of those days where tossing 8-8 is only 2 points.

   

Friday 7:06 AM

I went with the defensive discard (J-8). The other clear options just appeared to me to be just too risky.

   

Friday 7:37 AM

Offense as first non-dealer, how extreme do we go? Some say a more nuanced approach, we don't know who will get the 2 hands or the 24 hands. Playing first street is an under-rated part of the game that is very intriguing IMO and still not clear-cut

   

Friday 8:13 AM

I'm normally all about offense from the get-go, so that means tossing 5-J or 8-8. This time I opted for semi-offensive (semi-defensive?), holding 5-8-9-10 (toss 8-J). But it is not clearcut, as Selke says.

   

Friday 8:21 AM

Although an opponent of the "first pone is all offense" rule of thumb, I am more inclined to take a risk at 0-0*.

   

Friday 8:43 AM

Let's go for it. It's just a game!

   

Friday 11:26 AM

Throwing 8 8 is likely to cost me less than J 5 so that’s what I went for.

   

Friday 11:58 AM

I can't do it. Over 50% of cuts (24/46) leave 10-9-8-8 at 8 points; that's too much risk to make a J-5 throw that is odds on to give 8 in the crib.

I could buy tossing (8,8) and keeping the 7 points, but on balance I'd rather not risk giving up a huge hand right off the bat. I suspect (8,8) is the right throw here, but I'd rather play some defense and see what comes.

   

Friday 1:18 PM

If dealer put a fifteen in his crib, then, well, oh well. But if not, then I only gave away 2 points, and I have shot a double double. It's 0-0, I'm feeling generous, why be a wuss out of the gate.

   

Friday 2:06 PM

Here come those torpedoes again. Damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead. Hmmm. I wonder if Admiral Farragut ever played cribbage? Did J-5 to dealer crib sink my ship?

   

Friday 4:04 PM

Perhaps there are three options 8-8-9-10 (5-J), 5-9-10-J (8-8) and 5-8-9-10 (8-J):

8-8-9-10: 8pts - 8pts (Schell: 7.76) = 0pt

5-9-10-J: 7pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 6.82) = +¼pt

5-8-9-10: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = +½pt

Potential:

8-8-9-10: Improves with 555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999, 101010, JJJ = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 14/15/16pts with 7777, 88, 999, 101010 = 12 cuts.

5-9-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 88, 999 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 10/12/13/14pts with 555, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 16 cuts. Plus 10 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

5-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 555, 7777, 88, 999, 101010, JJJ = 18 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone we'll be playing Offense trying to reach positional hole at 18pts.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think there will be very little between these hands but perhaps 5-8-9-10 will peg best.

Summary:

5-8-9-10 has the best starting value but only by ¼pt and has the most cuts for improvement. It doesn't have the best maximum but has 18 cuts for 8-12pts. It also may peg best. So I'll throw the least damaging 8-J.

   

Friday 4:08 PM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
5-9-10-J___9.67+1.30+(-6.06)=4.91____30.3____25.4
5-8-9-10___7.59+1.33+(-4.25)=4.67____25.7____25.2
8-8-9-10__10.30+1.28+(-7.86)=3.72____31.0____23.1

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
5-9-10-J_____41.6____50.3
5-8-9-10_____36.4____49.2
8-8-9-10_____45.6____53.3

5-9-10-J is best for expected averages by 0.24pt and is slightly best for Win %s but is second highest for Loss %s and very much higher than 5-8-9-10. Even so I'll select 8-8 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the 5 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Points
5____________________1.40
J____________________1.24
9____________________1.22
10___________________1.18

   

Friday 4:25 PM

I would have reluctantly discarded the 8-8. We want to make around 13 pts this hand, and this keep has th epotential without giving as much as (J-5) does to Opp crib.

   

Friday 4:49 PM

Friday 6-game report.

I'm the guy who came 1st who came 2nd. (Explanation below).

Won 5 of 6, 720 out of possible 726, 20 players, took 2nd place.

The last 2 hands of the one game(against Rudy) I lost were something else.

In the 2nd to last hand I was holding 5-5-J-K and was pone. Score was about 89- 84*. I decided to lead one of the 5's and Rudy paired it. Even though my 10 pts in hand would put me over 96 as dealer next hand, I decided to triple the 5 for 8 pts. Rudy quadrupled it for 12. I guess I'm a slow learner - I encountered this type of scene last week, too. I just thought that the 8pts for the triple should make it all worthwhile. We finished that hand at about 108*-114.

In the last hand I had really bad cards and Rudy would count 1st. I had 10-Q-Q-K-K-K. I decided to discard a 10 and a Q - hoping I might peg my last 3 kings all at once.

Sure enough, that came to be, and I laid down my 3 kings all at once to peg 7 pts. Nobody corrected me!

Rudy won that game 115-121.

But those 3 Kings were actually worth 9 pegging pts, because you 1st get 2 for a pair, and then 6 for the triple, plus last card.

So my total official score worked out, over 6 games, to be 720 out of 726, when really it should have been 722. A (different) Rudy came 1st with 721. My 722 beats his 721, but no one, except this site, and my wife will ever know.

Incompetent counter here :-)

2nd place I officially am, though really I count myself as having taken 1st place - just not getting credit for it.

Eventually I may learn to be more careful about those possible quadruples!

   

Friday 6:11 PM

Sure have a chance to score 14 points on the opening hand of the game. Will go for it - goodbye 8-8, lead the five and take any pegs offered. At least the 4 starter card did not cause me to shudder as the turnup of a seven would.