February 13, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
23*-27  ?
42%
38%
6%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 183

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

dec
4824 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 3:04 AM
2-3 potentially more then A-4. Defensive elevens to use in the pegging. dec
JQT
2779 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Thursday 3:12 AM
We are Dealer at or beyond the First Street 'par' Hole 18, and Pone is about 17 holes short of the Second Street 'par' Hole 44, therefore despite being behind by 4 points, we are in excellent shape.

The standard discard from this construct is Toss (2 3), which tends to maximize our overall total 'Hand plus Crib' score in many situations. In the past, I wouldn't see any reason to deviate from that here.

But RAS has shed some further light on this hand, which has been dissected by some of the best players who ever played this game over the past half century.

In some critical pegging situations, we may retain the four-card-run, and initially, I don't see how that helps us today. Something yet echoes in my head about a few 'corner cases' in which sending (J X) to our Own Crib can be a viable alternative here.

The ubiquitous (A 2 3 4 X X) arrangement and its Toss (2 3) solution has been so well-studied, I cannot imagine that RAS would post such a puzzle UNLESS this were one of his 'Discovered Exceptions' to the Toss (2 3) rule, so let's make an exception!

And that's why I'm going to Toss (J K) today, if only to try to say, "I can still attempt to 'Learn me some more Cribbage' today."
Rosemarie44
1542 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 4:33 AM
We are all attempting to figure out today's puzzle from Ras. So as JQT explains the run would be the correct hand to hold.

Tossing 2-3 to our crib seems "just too easy". Also agree that I can't see how the 4 card run is the best option.

Another chance to learn with today's hand?
james500
2443 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 5:09 AM
I agree with John. I also seem to remember the guidance being to keep A-2-3-4 if one/both of the X cards is a Jack.
mfetchCT425
493 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Thursday 5:12 AM
2-3 to our crib is the strongest toss today so will do that and start with total of 6 points before the cut. Ras has the stats but 2-3 will often get us an above average crib and is 2nd best toss overall with only the 5-5 upping it. If the faces were touching such as J-Q or 10-J, I would opt for the 4-card run. All other face combos, I like the powerful 2-3 in our crib.
Gougie00
4218 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 5:22 AM
Unless there is a flush to consider, this is the way to break it.
travelingman2019
191 votes

Joined: December 2018

Thursday 5:46 AM
Always the 23 as dealer....not a favorable cut but hopefully 10 cards OR EVEN a 4 toss from the other side is going to help get you that position you want going into the non-dealer role next hand
RubyTuesday
380 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Thursday 6:06 AM
I threw 2 3 to my crib to do wonders there.
horus93
685 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Thursday 6:09 AM
Book hand.

T +5/-7 with only 6 known points I would peg aggressively. We're trying to get as close to or hopefully beyond 34 as possible. Pone is far enough back positionally that we can definitely afford to take some risks, e.g. pairing a lead.
Jazzselke
1423 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 6:52 AM
Yes, A234 could peg well, getting the A23 in for 4 points against all face cards. But 23 is the second-best throw to our crib, and we have a static 6 points instead of 4. Agree with Mike would consider throwing only the adjoining face cards of 10J or JQ, certainly not QK.
King Richard
2808 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 9:23 AM
RAS - Teach the King. The King snatches the 2-3 and tosses them to his crib without any use of the royal brain!
cwed
1036 votes

Joined: October 2014

   
Thursday 9:41 AM
I, too, toss 2-3 to my crib, even though I don't have a royal brain like King Richard. I not only (a) throw the best two cards to my crib and (b) have a good defensive pegging hand, but (c) also have a shot at 10 + 5 (minimum) if an Ace or 4 is cut.
Coeurdelion
4139 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 1:34 PM
This hand was demonstrated by Mick Michaelis to be more successfully dealt with by discarding 2-3 to own crib. Further analysis shows it depends on the tenth cards:

A-2-3-4: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.96) = 8pts

A-4-J-K: 4pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10¾pts

Potential:

A-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts.

A-4-J-K: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 8888, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK = 20 cuts. Plus 11 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

It looks as if it's third deal and we were First Dealer and have performed below average. We still have positional advantage but I'll play cautious offense.

Pegging:

A-2-3-4 will peg better than A-4-J-K.

Summary:

A-4-J-K has a starting value 2¾pts more than A-2-3-4 and also has ¼pt for the J potential. A-2-3-4 has guaranteed improvement and 38 cuts for 7-10pts plus it should peg better. Will this make up the 3pts difference? I think it will so I'll throw the suited J-K.
HalscribCLX
3909 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 1:37 PM
At 23*-27 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W7 %____W8 %
A-4-J-K___6.48+(-1.96)+6.45=10.97____29.0____45.3
A-2-3-4___6.87+(-2.17)+5.38=10.00____28.2____42.6

Defense_______L7 %____L8 %
A-4-J-K_______25.8____30.8
A-2-3-4_______29.3____34.5

A-4-J-K is better for expected averages by 0.97pt and is slightly better for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
3674 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Thursday 2:00 PM
With opponent needing 16 holes to reach 2nd street CPZ (43-47) have chosen def. def., def. and play off the lead. Positional considerations alone give the nod to discarding 2-3 and playing the safer hand to avoid pegs. Decision making becomes so much easier when considering board position needs of self and opponent. If you would like to know more about Critical Position Zones and how to interpret, e-mail raswino29@outlook.com any old time. Actually had the X-pointers been J-Q or 10-J, playing A-2-3-4 would be preferable if choosing an offense pegging strategy. The J-K would then be on the bubble. If the discard to own crib had been 10-K, 10-Q, or Q-K, discarding 2-3 would provide the greater combined value if playing defense or offense. So again flexibility is needed. If choosing defense, this is the way to fly. If choosing offense, holding A-2-3-4 will often be the better choice.
HalscribCLX
3909 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 2:07 PM
Amendments to above plus results if an Optimal or Offense strategy were adopted.

At 23*-27 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W7 %____W8 %
A-4-J-K___6.48+(-1.96)+6.45=10.97____29.0____45.3
2-3-J-K___6.87+(-2.17)+5.30=10.00____26.2____42.4`
A-2-3-4___8.09+(-2.20)+3.95= 9.84____28.2____42.6

Defense_______L7 %____L8 %
A-4-J-K_______25.8____30.8
2-3-J-K_______26.5____33.6
A-2-3-4_______29.3____34.5

A-4-J-K is better for expected averages by 0.97pt and is slightly better for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

If we were to play an Optimal strategy (cautious offense):

_______________Pone's
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-2-3-4___8.09+3.80+3.95=13.65
A-4-J-K___6.48+0.43+6.45=13.36
2-3-J-K___6.87+0.28+5.30=12.45

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-2-3-4___8.09+3.80+3.95=15.84
A-4-J-K___6.48+2.39+6.45=15.32
2-3-J-K___6.87+2.46+5.30=14.63