Thursday 3:04 AM

2-3 potentially more then A-4. Defensive elevens to use in the pegging. dec

   

Thursday 3:12 AM

We are Dealer at or beyond the First Street 'par' Hole 18, and Pone is about 17 holes short of the Second Street 'par' Hole 44, therefore despite being behind by 4 points, we are in excellent shape.

The standard discard from this construct is Toss (2 3), which tends to maximize our overall total 'Hand plus Crib' score in many situations. In the past, I wouldn't see any reason to deviate from that here.

But RAS has shed some further light on this hand, which has been dissected by some of the best players who ever played this game over the past half century.

In some critical pegging situations, we may retain the four-card-run, and initially, I don't see how that helps us today. Something yet echoes in my head about a few 'corner cases' in which sending (J X) to our Own Crib can be a viable alternative here.

The ubiquitous (A 2 3 4 X X) arrangement and its Toss (2 3) solution has been so well-studied, I cannot imagine that RAS would post such a puzzle UNLESS this were one of his 'Discovered Exceptions' to the Toss (2 3) rule, so let's make an exception!

And that's why I'm going to Toss (J K) today, if only to try to say, "I can still attempt to 'Learn me some more Cribbage' today."

   

Thursday 4:33 AM

We are all attempting to figure out today's puzzle from Ras. So as JQT explains the run would be the correct hand to hold.

Tossing 2-3 to our crib seems "just too easy". Also agree that I can't see how the 4 card run is the best option.

Another chance to learn with today's hand?

   

Thursday 5:09 AM

I agree with John. I also seem to remember the guidance being to keep A-2-3-4 if one/both of the X cards is a Jack.

   

Thursday 5:12 AM

2-3 to our crib is the strongest toss today so will do that and start with total of 6 points before the cut. Ras has the stats but 2-3 will often get us an above average crib and is 2nd best toss overall with only the 5-5 upping it. If the faces were touching such as J-Q or 10-J, I would opt for the 4-card run. All other face combos, I like the powerful 2-3 in our crib.

   

Thursday 5:22 AM

Unless there is a flush to consider, this is the way to break it.

Thursday 5:46 AM

Always the 23 as dealer....not a favorable cut but hopefully 10 cards OR EVEN a 4 toss from the other side is going to help get you that position you want going into the non-dealer role next hand

   

Thursday 6:06 AM

I threw 2 3 to my crib to do wonders there.

   

Thursday 6:09 AM

Book hand.

T +5/-7 with only 6 known points I would peg aggressively. We're trying to get as close to or hopefully beyond 34 as possible. Pone is far enough back positionally that we can definitely afford to take some risks, e.g. pairing a lead.

   

Thursday 6:52 AM

Yes, A234 could peg well, getting the A23 in for 4 points against all face cards. But 23 is the second-best throw to our crib, and we have a static 6 points instead of 4. Agree with Mike would consider throwing only the adjoining face cards of 10J or JQ, certainly not QK.

   

Thursday 9:23 AM

RAS - Teach the King. The King snatches the 2-3 and tosses them to his crib without any use of the royal brain!

   

Thursday 9:41 AM

I, too, toss 2-3 to my crib, even though I don't have a royal brain like King Richard. I not only (a) throw the best two cards to my crib and (b) have a good defensive pegging hand, but (c) also have a shot at 10 + 5 (minimum) if an Ace or 4 is cut.

   

Thursday 1:34 PM

This hand was demonstrated by Mick Michaelis to be more successfully dealt with by discarding 2-3 to own crib. Further analysis shows it depends on the tenth cards:

A-2-3-4: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.96) = 8pts

A-4-J-K: 4pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10¾pts

Potential:

A-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts.

A-4-J-K: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 8888, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK = 20 cuts. Plus 11 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

It looks as if it's third deal and we were First Dealer and have performed below average. We still have positional advantage but I'll play cautious offense.

Pegging:

A-2-3-4 will peg better than A-4-J-K.

Summary:

A-4-J-K has a starting value 2¾pts more than A-2-3-4 and also has ¼pt for the J potential. A-2-3-4 has guaranteed improvement and 38 cuts for 7-10pts plus it should peg better. Will this make up the 3pts difference? I think it will so I'll throw the suited J-K.

   

Thursday 1:37 PM

At 23*-27 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W7 %____W8 %
A-4-J-K___6.48+(-1.96)+6.45=10.97____29.0____45.3
A-2-3-4___6.87+(-2.17)+5.38=10.00____28.2____42.6

Defense_______L7 %____L8 %
A-4-J-K_______25.8____30.8
A-2-3-4_______29.3____34.5

A-4-J-K is better for expected averages by 0.97pt and is slightly better for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Thursday 2:00 PM

With opponent needing 16 holes to reach 2nd street CPZ (43-47) have chosen def. def., def. and play off the lead. Positional considerations alone give the nod to discarding 2-3 and playing the safer hand to avoid pegs. Decision making becomes so much easier when considering board position needs of self and opponent. If you would like to know more about Critical Position Zones and how to interpret, e-mail raswino29@outlook.com any old time. Actually had the X-pointers been J-Q or 10-J, playing A-2-3-4 would be preferable if choosing an offense pegging strategy. The J-K would then be on the bubble. If the discard to own crib had been 10-K, 10-Q, or Q-K, discarding 2-3 would provide the greater combined value if playing defense or offense. So again flexibility is needed. If choosing defense, this is the way to fly. If choosing offense, holding A-2-3-4 will often be the better choice.

   

Thursday 2:07 PM

Amendments to above plus results if an Optimal or Offense strategy were adopted.

At 23*-27 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W7 %____W8 %
A-4-J-K___6.48+(-1.96)+6.45=10.97____29.0____45.3
2-3-J-K___6.87+(-2.17)+5.30=10.00____26.2____42.4`
A-2-3-4___8.09+(-2.20)+3.95= 9.84____28.2____42.6

Defense_______L7 %____L8 %
A-4-J-K_______25.8____30.8
2-3-J-K_______26.5____33.6
A-2-3-4_______29.3____34.5

A-4-J-K is better for expected averages by 0.97pt and is slightly better for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

If we were to play an Optimal strategy (cautious offense):

_______________Pone's
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-2-3-4___8.09+3.80+3.95=13.65
A-4-J-K___6.48+0.43+6.45=13.36
2-3-J-K___6.87+0.28+5.30=12.45

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-2-3-4___8.09+3.80+3.95=15.84
A-4-J-K___6.48+2.39+6.45=15.32
2-3-J-K___6.87+2.46+5.30=14.63