February 12, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by thenotoriousapc
113-118*  ?
47%
29%
14%
5%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 199

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

usacoder
229 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Wednesday 3:33 AM
I hate give up a pair but keeping the Jack has a higher average.
joekayak
1037 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Wednesday 3:54 AM
everything except 6-7-8-9 puts us out. Add the Jacks which gives us an 8 point hand that we will never count. Big problem-what to lead? A 10 lead gives dealer two 10's and four 5's to effectively go out on. (Besides the 2 points, dealer always gets the dealer "go") Lead the 2 or 3 and there are only three remaining cards of that denomination that can pair. But dealer tends to keep small cards in this situation. However,I'll go with the three.
mrob2199
282 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 4:03 AM
We need 8 while holding the dealer to 1 or 2-definitely not an easy task-we are going to need some luck-the cut gives us enough so we have to duck everything-we are leading the 2 or 3 and hoping to dump one of our tens on the 2nd play-we know dealer will be likely to keep at least a couple small cards for pegging so if we get by the opening 2 lead-which I prefer over the 3 in this particular case-it’s likely he has a 3-so we have to hope we can force it out of his hand first or use it ourselves to push the count near 31 so he can’t pair it-I would even suggest not taking a 15 with a 3 if dealer responds very quickly to our 2 lead with a picture response-he might be baiting us into playing our 3
dec
4824 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 4:10 AM
First not caring what I discarded it will not get that far. So I start with six and go for the thirty cuts ( no Jacks please! ) that puts me out. First part accomplished now the pegging lead the two the best guess of a lead non offensive , dump one of the tens and hope two is the limit on a go and last card for opponent. Easy huh? dec
thelawnet
95 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Wednesday 4:18 AM
there are only two hands to choose between here:

234J

and

23TT

the first of these scores 5/6 (nob) with a 7 cut, and 7/8 (nob) with 689TQK. Every other card scores 8+ points and has us defending 3 pegs as our sole goal.

The cards then:

3 cards leave us to peg 3+ AND dealer not to peg 3+. This is a small chance but is possible, e.g., if we pair to 31, can get a run, etc.

1 card needs us to peg 2, which is more reasonable.

16 cards leave us to peg 1, which isn't too much effort.

26 cards leave us doing nothing

Meanwhile 23TT seems clearly worse, as there are 30 cards that take us home straight away, but the other 16 need us pegging 2, which is less likely than pegging 1.

so rather 42 out of 46 cards needing 1 point or none, than 16 out 46 requiring us to peg 2.
james500
2443 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 4:48 AM
Plenty of cuts for 7+, plus an 11/46 shot at a further point for a heart.

2 lead from either 2-3 five combo, or 2-J-4 sixteen, depending on whether Dealer responds with a X or a 5 card.
JQT
2779 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 4:56 AM
Needing Eight Points to WIN as Pone, and also not able to give up any more than Two Holes Pegging to the Dealer, is *almost* a cozy position, unless we Cut a Jack! Or unless Dealer can score upon our Lead Card. Or ... the list continues!

I much prefer Keep (2 3 4 X) over Keep (2 3 T T) here, even though it starts us off with one fewer 'static' points, because the RUN, alongside any Ten Card (or "X"), will propel us forward even further with ANY CUT except a 7 Card. And I think it may peg more flexibly since it has just one Ten Card in it.

So, while the odds that Dealer will Cut a Jack are 3 DIV 46 equals 0.065 or less than 7%, and the odds that we would Cut a 7 Card are 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 or slightly less than 9%, therefore about 7 DIV 46 equals 0.152 or around 15% of the Cuts today place us in great jeopardy. But we have absolutely NO CONTROL over this!

Otherwise, we should be home-free. And even better, we have a Jack as our Ten Card to hold alongside the 2-3-4 RUN, which means 11 DIV 46 Cuts or about 25% of the time we shall be able to add One Point for Nobs.

Thus, it's Keep (2 3 4 J) and Toss (T T) all the way to the Finish Line, and after the Ace Cut, the Dealer of course does not know we have enough to go out.

And now it becomes a matter of simply "defending the goal line" by pegging with the utmost of care, so I'll lead the Trey and bust up our RUN. If the Dealer responds with a Ten Card, it's not immediately clear what is the safest way to proceed, and since we don't need the (15-2), we are free to 'unload' any card at such a possible juncture.

This will undoubtedly become the most crucial aspect of today's puzzle! I might look to 'dump' the 4 Card here, just to mystify our Opponent. But keep in mind that any (15=2), or PAIRING, or RUN, or (31=2), that is scored by the Dealer probably means we'll LOSE a real heart breaker of a game today.

How sad will it be if the Dealer PAIRS our Jack during the Final Volley of Pegging!? Perish even the thought of it! But this could motivate some exceptionally clever players among us to contemplate Keep (2 3 4 T) here instead.

Having been dealt TWO Ten Cards "T" ... well, hmm, I have to wonder if the chance for Nobs actually might outweigh the less-potent Ten Card due to the enhanced favorability due to its scarcity........
Gougie00
4218 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 5:04 AM
2 parts to the puzzle. Get a cut for enough points to go out and prevent the dealer from pegging out. I got the cut, so I'll lead the 3 and hope it doesn't get paired. Jettison the Jack next.
scottcrib
212 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Wednesday 5:15 AM
Wanted to keep magic 16 and didn't want to have my Jack paired.
RubyTuesday
381 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Wednesday 5:28 AM
It doesn’t matter what goes in the crib, hopefully this gives flexibility for pegging and points in hand.
horus93
685 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Wednesday 7:17 AM
It's all been said. After the cut I'd lead the trey: few immediate losers and it breaks up our run
JRCeagle78
845 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Wednesday 9:36 AM
Keeping the T-T in our hand at this time hinders our play rather than help our hand. Chances are the dealer will keep a hand of 4 different cards in order to counter any play by the pone. If the dealer pegs 2 points with either the first or second card played, the game is for all intent over. The best strategy the pone can use is the same as the dealer. Lead the 3, and play the jack if it is safe to do so with the second play. Since the pone does not need to peg bypassing pegging opportunities early in the play could be an option.
Coeurdelion
4139 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 1:10 PM
I think it's between 2-3-10-10 (4-J) and 2-3-4-J (10-10)::

2-3-10-10: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 6.08) = +¼pt

2-3-4-J: 5pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.85) = +¼pt

Potential:

2-3-10-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555 + 13xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 1010 = 19 cuts.

2-3-4-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 13xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, JJJ = 20 cuts. Plus 11 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

We need 8pts to get out so I'll play a Bold strategy.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-4-J will peg better than 2-3-10-10.

Summary:

The starting value for each hand is the same. 2-3-4-J has more cuts for improvement and more for 8-12pts. Also it should peg better and has ¼pt for the nob potential. So I'll throw the 10-10.
HalscribCLX
3909 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 1:14 PM
At 113-118* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages for hand and pegging plus Win %s are:

________________Our
Offense____Hand_Pegs_Total___Win %
2-3-4-J____7.41+1.72=9.13____95.9
2-3-4-10___7.24+1.70=8.94____95.1
2-3-10-10__7.30+1.07=8.37____79.9

2-3-4-J is best for expected averages and Win %s so I'll select 10-10 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 2 and play Defense:

Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Points
2_____________________(-1.15)
4_____________________(-1.16)
3_____________________(-1.16)
J_____________________(-1.21)
dgergens
529 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Wednesday 2:13 PM
Live and learn.
Ras2829
3674 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 3:36 PM
Have pitched the pair of tens as the Jack may score an extra point if matching the starter card. Since we know we fi counting first, will break the lower sequence 2-3-4 by leading the trey. Although HalscribCLX shows the 2 as the better lead that still leaves 4-5 in sequence. Would like to get rid of the five on next l card played. That leaves me a Jack and 2, the widest spread I can have with these four cards. Am sorry when dealer needs three pegs and the average pegs for dealer is 3.5., RAS does not believe my chances to win are much more than 30%. Am amazed that HalscribCLX shows 2-3-4-J with a 95.9% chance to win. Wouldn't argue with a 35.9% figure.
Ras2829
3674 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 3:37 PM
Second sentence above should read...."we win if counting first..."