February 12, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by thenotoriousapc
113-118*  ?
47%
29%
14%
5%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 199
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:33 AM
I hate give up a pair but keeping the Jack has a higher average.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:54 AM
everything except 6-7-8-9 puts us out. Add the Jacks which gives us an 8 point hand that we will never count. Big problem-what to lead? A 10 lead gives dealer two 10's and four 5's to effectively go out on. (Besides the 2 points, dealer always gets the dealer "go") Lead the 2 or 3 and there are only three remaining cards of that denomination that can pair. But dealer tends to keep small cards in this situation. However,I'll go with the three.
JQT says: And yet if Dealer PAIRS a Ten Card Lead, and holds no Aces, after you score PAIRS Royal and a "go," then Dealer must lead from three remaining cards with score tied at (120-120). Probably still favors Dealer, but still very exciting!
mrob2199
1430 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:03 AM
We need 8 while holding the dealer to 1 or 2-definitely not an easy task-we are going to need some luck-the cut gives us enough so we have to duck everything-we are leading the 2 or 3 and hoping to dump one of our tens on the 2nd play-we know dealer will be likely to keep at least a couple small cards for pegging so if we get by the opening 2 lead-which I prefer over the 3 in this particular case-it’s likely he has a 3-so we have to hope we can force it out of his hand first or use it ourselves to push the count near 31 so he can’t pair it-I would even suggest not taking a 15 with a 3 if dealer responds very quickly to our 2 lead with a picture response-he might be baiting us into playing our 3
dec
6353 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:10 AM
First not caring what I discarded it will not get that far. So I start with six and go for the thirty cuts ( no Jacks please! ) that puts me out. First part accomplished now the pegging lead the two the best guess of a lead non offensive , dump one of the tens and hope two is the limit on a go and last card for opponent. Easy huh? dec
thelawnet
262 votes

Joined: January 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:18 AM
there are only two hands to choose between here:

234J

and

23TT

the first of these scores 5/6 (nob) with a 7 cut, and 7/8 (nob) with 689TQK. Every other card scores 8+ points and has us defending 3 pegs as our sole goal.

The cards then:

3 cards leave us to peg 3+ AND dealer not to peg 3+. This is a small chance but is possible, e.g., if we pair to 31, can get a run, etc.

1 card needs us to peg 2, which is more reasonable.

16 cards leave us to peg 1, which isn't too much effort.

26 cards leave us doing nothing

Meanwhile 23TT seems clearly worse, as there are 30 cards that take us home straight away, but the other 16 need us pegging 2, which is less likely than pegging 1.

so rather 42 out of 46 cards needing 1 point or none, than 16 out 46 requiring us to peg 2.
thelawnet says: in terms of the pegging the dealer can toss random card as he only needs 3 points, so we can't assume for example he will have kept a 5, however with a ten card lead there is both pair and 15 for insta-lose, so we must lead 2, 3 or 4. I think pone holds 2 here, maybe 4 also as it's a classic lead, so I like 3 as the lead card, but we may of course insta-lose....
JQT says: Very well-reasoned, I believe, and I agree wholeheartedly that the (2 3 4 X) RUN is far better than its alternative (2 3 T T) today. However, I think we might wish to also analyze (2 3 4 T) as I discussed a little bit (below). Sure, tossing the Jack involves a 25% chance of missing out on One Point for Nobs, but retaining a Ten Card "T" would also have us enjoy a 33% improved chance of the Dealer NOT having been dealt a "matching" Ten Card; so these two criteria may more than offset one another. No, I did not have the temerity to actually Toss (T J), but I think it does warrant our examination, since those offsetting items may actually make (2 3 4 T) a contender today! Thoughts or Ideas?
thelawnet says: yes 234T can certainly be considered. in this case: 4 cuts need 3 points 23 cuts need 1 point 19 cuts need 0 points. so that's 7/46 that we need to peg 1 point instead of 0, but otoh as you say the T is slightly safer than the J My instinct is that the J still wins, on the basis that a ten card is the safest from pairing in that if you play it at a count of 12 or more, it cannot be paired, and in any case we are not leading the T, so the value of holding a card with only two matches rather than three is diminished. that is set against the absolute value of the nobs which bring us 100% home in those 7/46 cases, and rescue us from 3 points to only 2 in another case.
thelawnet says: I forget of course that as you note, in fact 3/46 times we lose on the Jack cut. So: 234J 3 cards - lose 3 cards - -3 1 card - -2 16 cards -1 23 cards 0 234T 3 cards - lose 4 cards - 3 20 cards - 1 19 cards - 0 so the balance is not that far different between the J and the T, as the J to match our 234J actually loses the game for us.
james500
3918 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:48 AM
Plenty of cuts for 7+, plus an 11/46 shot at a further point for a heart.

2 lead from either 2-3 five combo, or 2-J-4 sixteen, depending on whether Dealer responds with a X or a 5 card.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:56 AM
Needing Eight Points to WIN as Pone, and also not able to give up any more than Two Holes Pegging to the Dealer, is *almost* a cozy position, unless we Cut a Jack! Or unless Dealer can score upon our Lead Card. Or ... the list continues!

I much prefer Keep (2 3 4 X) over Keep (2 3 T T) here, even though it starts us off with one fewer 'static' points, because the RUN, alongside any Ten Card (or "X"), will propel us forward even further with ANY CUT except a 7 Card. And I think it may peg more flexibly since it has just one Ten Card in it.

So, while the odds that Dealer will Cut a Jack are 3 DIV 46 equals 0.065 or less than 7%, and the odds that we would Cut a 7 Card are 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 or slightly less than 9%, therefore about 7 DIV 46 equals 0.152 or around 15% of the Cuts today place us in great jeopardy. But we have absolutely NO CONTROL over this!

Otherwise, we should be home-free. And even better, we have a Jack as our Ten Card to hold alongside the 2-3-4 RUN, which means 11 DIV 46 Cuts or about 25% of the time we shall be able to add One Point for Nobs.

Thus, it's Keep (2 3 4 J) and Toss (T T) all the way to the Finish Line, and after the Ace Cut, the Dealer of course does not know we have enough to go out.

And now it becomes a matter of simply "defending the goal line" by pegging with the utmost of care, so I'll lead the Trey and bust up our RUN. If the Dealer responds with a Ten Card, it's not immediately clear what is the safest way to proceed, and since we don't need the (15-2), we are free to 'unload' any card at such a possible juncture.

This will undoubtedly become the most crucial aspect of today's puzzle! I might look to 'dump' the 4 Card here, just to mystify our Opponent. But keep in mind that any (15=2), or PAIRING, or RUN, or (31=2), that is scored by the Dealer probably means we'll LOSE a real heart breaker of a game today.

How sad will it be if the Dealer PAIRS our Jack during the Final Volley of Pegging!? Perish even the thought of it! But this could motivate some exceptionally clever players among us to contemplate Keep (2 3 4 T) here instead.

Having been dealt TWO Ten Cards "T" ... well, hmm, I have to wonder if the chance for Nobs actually might outweigh the less-potent Ten Card due to the enhanced favorability due to its scarcity........
scottcrib says: JQT, I decided to not keep the Jack and my reasons reflect what you have stated here. I think the risk is too great for it to be paired.
JQT says: Let's remember: the Dealer *always* pegs One Point for either a "go" or for Last Card, so this translates into the fact that essentially ANY CARD the Dealer can PAIR means that we shall lose today! And, the Ten Card or "T" is not merely 33% more scarce, because if a Jack does indeed wind up "on deck" as the Cut, we have essentially lost the game as well! This means that the propensity for the Dealer to actually be holding onto a Jack during the pegging (as opposed to having a Ten "T") will be all that much higher in probability of occurring. In summary: I would NOT fault anyone who decides to Keep (2 3 4 T) today!
JQT says: This is *really* quite a fascinating Pegging Puzzle. Dealer's best weapon will be any low PAIR today, and in fact I would not have led the Trey without first seeing that Ace Cut. That's because I fear an Ace Reply, with another Ace to follow for (15=2) and we go down in flames. Also, after a Trey Lead, Gougie00 mentions unloading our Jack next, but what if Dealer has played a Jack? We don't need the points, and now our Jack might suddenly have become a lot *safer* to retain for later! I might unload the 4 Card to reach a Count of Seventeen instead. Now, if the Dealer bumps the Count up to Twenty-Seven, if the Dealer holds a Deuce we would likely lose ANYWAY, so no need to fear (31=4) vs (31=2) since either way, we've probably lost. Thus, it actually *forces* our Opponent to have that Deuce (or shudder: Two Aces!). In my experience, if a Dealer at Hole 118 holds Two Aces, it's almost as good as VICTORY, especially when held alongside a Middle- or Higher-Ranking card that pushes the Count up quickly. Regardless, this remains a very difficult pegging "minefield" for us to hopefully negotiate our way through toward possible VICTORY today.
Gougie00
5725 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:04 AM
2 parts to the puzzle. Get a cut for enough points to go out and prevent the dealer from pegging out. I got the cut, so I'll lead the 3 and hope it doesn't get paired. Jettison the Jack next.
scottcrib
1631 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:15 AM
Wanted to keep magic 16 and didn't want to have my Jack paired.
JQT says: Now there's a player with some guts, which I lacked today! I like it, scottcrib (see discussion about throwing T-T vs T-J above).
RubyTuesday
909 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:28 AM
It doesn’t matter what goes in the crib, hopefully this gives flexibility for pegging and points in hand.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:17 AM
It's all been said. After the cut I'd lead the trey: few immediate losers and it breaks up our run
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:36 AM
Keeping the T-T in our hand at this time hinders our play rather than help our hand. Chances are the dealer will keep a hand of 4 different cards in order to counter any play by the pone. If the dealer pegs 2 points with either the first or second card played, the game is for all intent over. The best strategy the pone can use is the same as the dealer. Lead the 3, and play the jack if it is safe to do so with the second play. Since the pone does not need to peg bypassing pegging opportunities early in the play could be an option.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 1:10 PM
I think it's between 2-3-10-10 (4-J) and 2-3-4-J (10-10)::

2-3-10-10: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 6.08) = +¼pt

2-3-4-J: 5pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.85) = +¼pt

Potential:

2-3-10-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555 + 13xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 1010 = 19 cuts.

2-3-4-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 13xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, JJJ = 20 cuts. Plus 11 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

We need 8pts to get out so I'll play a Bold strategy.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-4-J will peg better than 2-3-10-10.

Summary:

The starting value for each hand is the same. 2-3-4-J has more cuts for improvement and more for 8-12pts. Also it should peg better and has ¼pt for the nob potential. So I'll throw the 10-10.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 1:14 PM
At 113-118* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages for hand and pegging plus Win %s are:

________________Our
Offense____Hand_Pegs_Total___Win %
2-3-4-J____7.41+1.72=9.13____95.9
2-3-4-10___7.24+1.70=8.94____95.1
2-3-10-10__7.30+1.07=8.37____79.9

2-3-4-J is best for expected averages and Win %s so I'll select 10-10 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 2 and play Defense:

Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Points
2_____________________(-1.15)
4_____________________(-1.16)
3_____________________(-1.16)
J_____________________(-1.21)
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:13 PM
Live and learn.
JQT says: The Dealer will peg out far more than 5% of the time from Hole 118, and what the computer is not giving us here is the loss percentages. I think these hands may not be so far apart in actual performance after all, simply because all the Dealer needs to do is PAIR *anything* and then we lose. I think those stat's therefore reflect more our ability to 'cover the distance' than they reflect our defensive chances. The two Ten Cards might actually offer some 'safety in numbers' simply because we were dealt two of them, and so as mrob2199 elaborates, it's all about getting safely past that Lead Card. I think (2 3 T T) lacks the *offensive* "reach" of (2 3 4 J), and that's an important concept to grasp here, but *defensively* I am not quite so certain that (2 3 T T) is really all that bad. It's quite an interesting puzzle, worth ongoing study.
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:36 PM
Have pitched the pair of tens as the Jack may score an extra point if matching the starter card. Since we know we fi counting first, will break the lower sequence 2-3-4 by leading the trey. Although HalscribCLX shows the 2 as the better lead that still leaves 4-5 in sequence. Would like to get rid of the five on next l card played. That leaves me a Jack and 2, the widest spread I can have with these four cards. Am sorry when dealer needs three pegs and the average pegs for dealer is 3.5., RAS does not believe my chances to win are much more than 30%. Am amazed that HalscribCLX shows 2-3-4-J with a 95.9% chance to win. Wouldn't argue with a 35.9% figure.
Ras2829 says: Sue it's def., def., def. That's why breaking the 2-3-4 sequence seems the most important first step.
Ras2829 says: The first challenge is to allow dealer no more than two pegs. If not doing that, I don't get to count. Once knowing that I have 8 points, the strategy becomes something even beyond defense. It then becomes imperative that RAS play SAFE.
thelawnet says: There is a 6.5% chance of cutting a Jack, so 95.9% cannot be right....
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:37 PM
Second sentence above should read...."we win if counting first..."