February 10, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
103*-110  ?
37%
31%
30%
0%
Total votes: 221

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Jazzselke
1403 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 3:18 AM
Would normally hold this hand anyhow; in this situation even more so as we have a magic 11; the 3445 could get us into pegging trouble.
Andy (muesli64)
1677 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Monday 3:30 AM
I guess the flush wins and also pegs better.
dec
4779 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:36 AM
Playing a three way strategy I will opt with the hand that has two sets of eleven counts here. J-5 is a pretty good discard here. Play off here. dec
JQT
2730 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 3:45 AM
Pone needs Eleven Holes in order to WIN, and we know that the Average Pegging plus the Average Hand should yield about Ten Holes for Pone, and therefore it's slightly more than likely that Pone will come up short.

Meanwhile, as the Dealer, we need Eighteen Points to reach that same Finish Line.

The real problem here is that we cannot assume that we'll ever get to navigate our entire Three Counts (according to the widely-known and well-established "Twenty-Six Theory" developed by DeLynn Colvert, or Twenty-Six Points) as the Current Dealer. And that's because even if we do get to combine our Average Pegging plus our own Average Hand as the Dealer (which should yield a combined total of about Sixteen Holes), it's very likely that Pone will then be 'close enough' to peg out as Next Dealer, as the Dealer's Average Pegging is close to 3.5 Holes.

Thus, while Pone has 'less than a coin-flip odds' or 50% chance of going out at completion of This Deal, Pone probably also probably has well over a 90% chance of reaching that Finish Line before we can ever hope to both Peg and lay down First Hand Show as the Next Non Dealer.

The verdict therefore is: even after defending judiciously during the Pegging on This Deal, we ought to try (and try with all of our might) to also then reach the Finish Line with the combined results of our Hand plus our Crib by completion of This Deal. And this gives us some conflicting objectives.

Having been dealt no Jacks, we enjoy a 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 or nearly a 9% chance of getting an immediate "shove" forward by cutting a Jack, which would indeed give us some much-needed help! With all those ideas in mind, let's look at our options today:

We could retain the FLUSH and Toss (4d Q), or retain the Double RUN and Toss (8 Q), or we could even try to 'energize' our Crib and Toss (5 Q). Those seem like our only options, and the first idea or FLUSH starts us off with a 'static' total of Nine Points, while the last two options instead only start us off with a 'static' total of Eight Points.

Let's now imagine a few hypothetical Cuts: a 5 Card Cut seems very attractive after any of our three Discard Options, but such a cut might very well be just what Pone needs to slip in ahead of us!

A Trey or a 4 Card or even an 8 Card Cut therefore seems much better, because it is much less likely to help our Opponent. Meanwhile, an Ace or a 9 Card or any Ten Card (or "X") Cut seems crippling, UNLESS that "X" were ... a Jack!

I'm hesitant to retain a Double RUN since it might "throw" the game during the Pegging Phase, so in spite of it being capable of propelling us perhaps furthest down the board as any of the hands we are considering, it seems too risky for meeting our first and crucial objective, which is to defend during the pegging.

I look at the ability to score an adequate number of total points of either the FLUSH or the Toss (5 Q) options as being quite similar, and yet as much as I enjoy 'stuffing' a 5 Card into my Crib, I like even more both the defensive pegging nature of the FLUSH, along with the important fact that it starts us off with an initial One Point MORE today.

Therefore, I like these three options pretty much as analyzed: the FLUSH seems best, followed by Toss (5 Q), and last of the three choices today, would I probably entertain the idea of retaining the Double RUN.

After the lovely Jack Cut, we have accounted for being able to score all but three of those precious eighteen required points, and thus we should entirely PLAY OFF and *defend* as best we can during the pegging.

I think one little thought says a LOT about the pegging dangers here: This might mean NOT EVEN PAIRING a 4 Card Lead even if you do hold the Double RUN, which could still have you awkwardly losing even though if Pone has BOTH of the other 4 Cards, although it could first easily push you all the way to Hole 120!

I'm not saying don't do it; I'm just warning about the dangers of giving up ANY needless points during the pegging today.
james500
2399 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 5:16 AM
I stand by the comments I made yesterday: the more of a particular rank I have, the fewer of that rank my opponent can have, and the less likely they are able to pair it. I'll keep both fours.

The 5 is the card most likely to be trapped, so I'll hide it.

Knowing the split will be 4-4-?-? (5-?), it seems natural to make it 4-4-3-8 (5-Q).
Gougie00
4172 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 5:22 AM
Interesting puzzle. Face-Five or the Flush? I went with the flush because it has more possibilities for a louder bang.
RubyTuesday
337 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Monday 5:59 AM
I chose the flush rather than the double run because unlike yesterday I spotted it, and I thought that it might give me more points in pegging and that its score would improve on more cuts.
thelawnet
46 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Monday 6:07 AM
Similar to yesterday. only a bit further from the goal.

but after this lovely hand we're sitting pretty.

flush is worth 9 at a minimum, if pone pegs two or fewer, he needs a 9+ point hand to win here, which is only around 1/3 chance.

after the Js our score is 117 without pegging and crib, but conditional on pone not going out

as such any points we concede pegging through carelessness are likely to lose the game for us.

in particular, a run or 3oak could lose the game for us....

we peg at least one as dealer, so we need no mor than three from our crib, and with qj4, any of kqjt54a discards score for us, as do 92, 83

so defensive as we peg and hope the crib is ok for us
wasa
1504 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Monday 7:32 AM
I know I've said this before, but it pays to flush!
horus93
646 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Monday 8:32 AM
Defense at +7/-1
Rosemarie44
1498 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 11:30 AM
It pays to Flush. Expected averages favor this hold and discard. Hand starts with 9 points!
scottcrib
171 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Monday 12:15 PM
In my mind, the most important thing regarding today's puzzle is pegging. We can't let the pone peg out, so my choice was to keep what I thought was the best pegging hand.
joekayak
1000 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Monday 12:24 PM
Very few chose to keep the double run intact. The panel is playing at a high level. To flush or not. I thought the value of Q-5 to crib (and a guaranteed 8) outweighed the 9 point flush hold. But first job first. DEF to the lead.
HalscribCLX
3871 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 3:51 PM
At 103*-110 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Net
Optimal___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____Win %s
3-4S-5-8__12.20+1.61+3.37=17.17____52.5
3-4-5-5___11.70+1.33+3.12=16.14____43.5
3-4-4-8____8.39+1.07+6.54=15.99____42.7

The flush is best for expected averages 1.03pts and is very much best for Win %s so I'll select 4D-Q to discard.

After the JS cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
glmccuskey
3146 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Monday 3:51 PM
I’m thinking this has the best combined value. If non dealer doesn’t go out, they will be close enough to peg out as dealer next hand. We need to go out if our opponent doesn’t.
Coeurdelion
4101 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 3:53 PM
The partly running flush or the double-run?:

3-4S-5-8: 9pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.59) = 12½pts

3-4-4-5: 8pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.19) = 11¼pts

Potential:

3-4S-5-8: Improves with 2222, 333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 12/13/14/16/18pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 = 24 cuts.

3-4-4-5: Improves with 2222, 333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 82.6% up to 12/14/16/17/20pts with 2222, 333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 = 23 cuts.

Position:

With Pone only 11pts from home I'll play Defense to restrict Pone's pegging.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think the flush will peg much better.

Summary:

The flush has a starting value 1¼pts more than the double-run. Both have the same number of cuts for improvement and a similar number of cuts for a good to very good hand. 3-4-4-5 has a slightly better maximum but I think 3-4S-5-8 will peg better.
HalscribCLX
3871 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 4:36 PM
At 103*-110 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Net
Optimal___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____Win %s
3-4S-5-8__12.20+1.61+3.37=17.17____52.5
3-4-5-5___11.70+1.33+3.12=16.14____43.5
3-4-4-8____8.39+1.07+6.54=15.99____42.7

The flush is best for expected averages 1.03pts and is very much best for Win %s so I'll select 4D-Q to discard.

After the JS cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
3634 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 10:39 PM
Picking up two points for that Jack on the deck just might be the nudge that RAS needs to put this game on ice. Sure am playing optimally. A few relatively safe pegs would be a good thing. With opponent 11 holes out, got to play off the lead. Would play the 8 on J-Q-K lead, close the count with the trey at 31 in most such cases. Would play the 5 on A or 2 lead and the 8 on 3/4 lead. Will try to keep 3-4 intact as might pick off one of those or alone deuce near end of pegging sequence. It pays to flush! How many can remember when you had to pay to flush?