January 22, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Jazzselke
70*-72  ?
53%
18%
11%
8%
3%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 213
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:09 AM
Lets get to that 85 marker. They lead a middle card we might just have to get creative in the pegging. That next par will be very important. dec
thelawnet
262 votes

Joined: January 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:02 AM
EVs of possible hands:

* 4569 - 9.8, but A9 is even worse than usual in crib with 69 in our hand
* a456 - 8.8 the 99 to the crib is worth below 5
* 5699 - 8.3 A4 in crib is surprisingly good and makes total ev about the same as A456
* a699 - 7.2 45 in the crib is the best of the lot but we are somewhat dependent on pone's discards in that this is the worse hand

so of the options the first is too bad for the crib and the last is not appealing for pegging, a456 seems to peg better so we might as well go for that as there are better pegging prospects
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:55 AM
So is it defense or offense here? Prefer A-4 than a pair in my crib and also starting with 6 points rather than 5 points (but a really good pegging hand). Nice cut of a Jack!
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:08 AM
Touch and go A-4 or 9-9
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:48 AM
The hand is less liked to be improved by the cut than others available, but I reckon the crib may "take up the slack".

9 reply to a J,Q or K lead:
X(10)-9(19)-5(24)-6(30)-go-A(31/2).
JQT says: One brave Toss (4 5) soul among us! Bravo, james!
RubyTuesday
915 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:12 AM
I’m the person who didn’t consider throwing A 4 but think I would still have thrown the pair to keep the 4 5 6 run in my hand.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:07 AM
I have been advised by many players that A456 is an better hand to hold for 2 reason. The A-4 gives you an additional 2 points should an X card is cut, and The Ace can be used as either an escape card or a "red herring" during the play of the hand. This is a hand that can be used as either offense or defense depending upon the play of your opponent, your position on the board or whether you are dealer or pone.
travelingman2019
513 votes

Joined: December 2018
Wednesday 8:00 AM
I seem to be doing what you told me, coach...LOL.....the ultimate pegging had to keep the position and a good offensive toss of the 9's.............
Jazzselke
2587 votes

Joined: March 2009
Wednesday 8:37 AM
Always wonder about this hand; like the 45 in my crib, and keeping the 699 together. A456 preferred as the non-dealer, but can also peg well as the dealer, but not crazy about 9s in the crib holding a 6.
Jazzselke says: Holding A699.
horus93
1282 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:39 AM
My gut cut this way between a-4 and 9-9
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:08 AM
I believe Toss (9 9) is a most shameful discard, but here I am, attaching my name to it.

I would really like to try Toss (4 5) into my Own Crib today, but (A 4 5 6) is simply too good of a pegging hand to pass up.
byrd
279 votes

Joined: October 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:22 AM
Eddy says that putting any one or two cards in your crib that add up to 5 is a guaranteed 2 pts, so this hand/crib combo guarantees us 8 pts. Side note: Has anyone done the analysis on an X - 5 discard? Is that discard automatically 4 pts in the crib?
Jazzselke says: It is only a guaranteed 2. Example: 2579K.
dgergens says: I took the time to check that out. A 5 in your crib is guaranteed 2 points (minimum) accounting for every possible pone combination plus any cut. By putting K,5 in your crib, you just provided one of the possible ways to get the 2 minimum right up front. As for A,4 in your crib, I have not checked if that is guaranteed 2 minimum.
cwed says: dgergens: but you don't have to actually throw a face card with 5 to guarantee two points. Any 5 (whether the 5 alone or 2-3 or A-4) is a guarantee of two points.
JQT says: Any time there is either: a 5 Card, or two cards that add up to Five or Fifteen, you will *always* have at least Two Points in the Crib. Note that in the first case however, that if two cards add up to Five, that the Two Points you ultimately get *might not* necessarily come from those two cards! To wit: (2 3 3 6 8)
Ras2829 says: HI byrd: As indicated above any combination with a five or that totals five (A-4, 2-3) will assure no less than two points in the crib. All 5-X combinations are not alike. They score two points at the percentages shown: 5-J 1.609 (1,678); 5-10 2.051 ((1,170); 5-K 2.812 (1,742); and 5-Q 3.437% (1,251). It should be noted that no discard among the 91 scores two points as infrequently as does the 5-J. Primary reason is that the Jack when matching the suit of the starter card may score three points whereas those other X-pointers will not gain such an advantage. Number in parentheses is the times RAS has discarded to own crib in live play and recorded the results.
Ras2829 says: BTW those middle card discards favored by many players score two points at a very high level, comparatively speaking. Those look like this: 7-8 17.656; 7-7 22.011; 8-8 30.313% 8-9 33.6%; and it gets worse.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Wednesday 11:06 AM
I was going to say woops. But then decided to look at Liam site. Seems my discard choice, 4,5 is the hail mary suggestion, and is statistically only .1 and .2 points less than 9,9 and A,4 discards respectively. Not going to leave today's puzzle with my head down.
JQT says: I would often make the same discard choice! In fact it hurts not to do it today, but near Hole 70, things tend to start getting serious. But still, there can be no shame in Toss (4 5). I'm not quite as fond as Toss (A 4) however, which often gets 'lumped in' (and mistakenly so) with the likes of Toss (2 3), which is much, much stronger.
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 1:26 PM
What' not to like about a 2-card 11, 3-card 11, and a "sweet 16" all wrapped up in these nifty four cards? Those "elevens from heaven" send me into an amazing rapture. Will choose off., off., off., and play on the lead. After turning the Jack am assured of two points, a guaranteed peg, 9 points in hand, a known two in the crib. That's already 14 points and the 9-9 averages 5.213 to own crib. So move on down the board; don't worry about opponent on this deal. N/D of this hand needs 23 points to gain a positional advantage by reaching 4th street CPZ 95-99. Time to build on our edge.
Ras2829 says: BTW I often play off. after seeing the starter card when HalscribCLX would play defense. Am dealing this hand from 3rd Street CPZ (65-69) and need to deal from 4th Street CPZ (95-99) my next deal. A bit of offense here ought to put me well past that zone. Only defense for me in this position would not pair the opening lead although would be pleased to make 15-2.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:37 PM
Several possibilities 4-5-6-9 (A-9), A-4-5-6 (9-9), A-6-9-9 (4-5) and 5-6-9-9 (A-4):

4-5-6-9: 7pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.40) = 10½pts

A-4-5-6: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.16) = 10¼pts

A-6-9-9: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 12½pts

5-6-9-9: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 11¼pts

Potential:

4-5-6-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 6666, 99 = 12 cuts.

A-4-5-6: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/12/14pts with 3333, 444, 555, 666, 99 + 16xXs = 31 cuts.

A-6-9-9: Improves with AAA, 555, 666, 8888, 99 = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 10/12pts with 555, 666, 99 = 8 cuts.

5-6-9-9: Improves with AAA, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 99 + 16xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 10/11/12pts with AAA, 444, 666, 7777, 99 = 15 cuts.

Position:

We're at positional hole and Pone is 14pts short of where they would want to be. I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Of these hands A-4-5-6 should peg the best with a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

A-6-9-9 has the best starting value by 1¼pts but has few cuts for improvement. 5-6-9-9 has the second best starting value and 34 cuts for improvement while 4-5-6-9 and A-4-5-6 start with about the same but ¾/1pt lower but have the best numer of cuts for improvement. A-4-5-6 should also peg the best. I'll keep the pegging hand and throw 9-9.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:56 PM
At 70*-72 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
A-4-5-6___8.85+3.74+4.86=17.45____13.2____48.3
5-6-9-9___8.33+3.17+5.43=16.93____10.7____47.8
4-5-6-9___9.85+3.78+3.04=16.67____10.7____45.9
A-6-9-9___7.22+2.33+6.35=15.90____10.3____46.4

Offense_______L3 %____L4 %
A-4-5-6_______8.0_____29.1
5-6-9-9_______5.9_____27.4
4-5-6-9_______6.4_____29.2
A-6-9-9_______5.0_____27.0

A-4-5-6 is best for expected averages by 0.52pt and is best for Win %s by an appreciable amount. A-6-9-9 is lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select 9-9 to discard.

After the J cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
dgergens says: How does one hand have the highest win percentages but a different hand have the "lowest loss" percentages, given what we were taught in grade school about double negatives?
dgergens says: In fact the hand with the highest winning percentage ALSO has the highest losing percentage!???
Coeurdelion says: If you were dealt 5-5-7-7-8-8 and threw 5-5 to opponent's crib with 7-7-8-8 you would have the best chance of winning but discarding 5-5 you would have the highest chance of losing because of the risk.
dgergens says: OK, I can (sort of) get my get my head around that explanation and accept it (thank you), but in this puzzle, the crib is ours.