January 14, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
93*-96  ?
46%
22%
16%
8%
4%
1%
1%
Total votes: 199

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

dec
4756 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:05 AM
I am the one who split the fives. That made more sense to me. Numbers and strategy bear that out. dec
JQT
2704 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 3:39 AM
Even though we would ideally like to be at or beyond Hole 95 to begin as Dealer today, dealing from *just beyond* the final "corner" is not too terrible of a position.

Meanwhile, Pone is actually "upside down" here, since, in spite of the fact that he or she has reached precisely such a position, Pone is currently 'Pone' and therefore is NOT the Dealer!

This could still spell trouble for us if we don't get our "act" (pegs) in gear, and so this is one of those times in which we might be glad to give up Six Holes in order to get just Two or Three Holes; that is, if we only do so ONCE!

Our "Three Counts" should put us somewhere around Ninety-Three plus Twenty-Six or the vicinity of Hole 119, and thus this illustrates the nature of our Potential Real Estate Predicament (PREP) concerns today.

But Pone has certainly 'got it worse' than we do today, as Ninety-Six plus Ten (the average for the Non Dealer) gets him or her to Hole 106, at which time we shall then 'steal back' First Hand Show as the Next Non Dealer.

A 'balanced approach' here appears to be Keep (2 2 5 8) and Toss (5d 7d), with the promise of at least Nine Points. But even better, considering our dilemma today, might be Keep (2 2 7 8) and Toss (5 5), which while only promising at least Seven Holes, has several added benefits.

Worse than either of these two choices I believe would be Toss (7 8), so we won't even consider this today.

But let's now 'sidle up' to that splendid idea of Toss (5 5), which as we know tends to produce a Crib Value of around Nine Points *all by itself*! This, when added to our Pegging plus Hand, ought to meet the objectives we determined and specified earlier. I especially like the "Pegging Prospects" (good PP) of being the Dealer with that three-card "Magic Eleven" in the form of (2 2 7). This is likely to be our real "Goal-Getter" today.

And so, it's Toss (5 5) to the rescue, with a Queen Cut that should help our Crib and hopefully NOT help our Opponent. We do have some "wiggle room" in the pegging, but we also must be careful not to 'wiggle too much' lest our Opponent shall 'snatch' Victory right out from under us: We got this 'thang' under control!
scottcrib
151 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Tuesday 4:51 AM
This hand is from a grass roots game I was watching a couple of weeks ago. The dealer threw 5-7 suited. I would have thrown 5-5. The group was split between the two options. I have been burned by 5-5 before, but we must play the averages.
Jazzselke
1383 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 5:15 AM
We hold no face cards, so hopefully at least one thrown by opponent. And maybe even K10 awaits us.Pegging needs to go our way as well.
Rosemarie44
1476 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 5:25 AM
Putting a pair of 5's in our crib. Expected averages favor this selection.
james500
2374 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 5:45 AM
I'm in the 5-5 group, but I'm interested to see how 5d-7d performs in Hal's analysis later. Might it surprise us?
mfetchCT425
458 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 6:01 AM
Sacrificed two points to toss the 5-5. It could give us the crib we need to get down the board. 2-2-7-8 has some potential to peg with the 3-card magic 11.
jmath714
675 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Tuesday 6:13 AM
Has to be 5-5. Time to peg, hoping to get in our 2-2 for 4.
horus93
624 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Tuesday 7:00 AM
At -3/+10 with good cards total offense to the cut
cwed
982 votes

Joined: October 2014

   
Tuesday 7:31 AM
Toss 5-5 is the only option for me. I'm holding a magic-11, so hopefully 31-for-4 is in my future. On the other hand, I'm willing to jump right into a pegging battle with 2-2 and 7-8 since a Queen cut is not of immediately help to the pone if she held low or middle cards.
wasa
1479 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 7:51 AM
As scottcrib said, to me was between the 5-7 and the 5-5. Since 5-5 is our best toss, into my crib it goes.
JCM
364 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Tuesday 8:42 AM
Hmmm.
A. 2-2-7-8(5-5) = 4(hand) + 9(Av crib) = 13 + pegging.
B. 2-2-5-8(5d-7d) = 6(hand) + 6(Av crib) = 12 + pegging

Score is 93*-96.

We want to reach about 111 or more this hand, since we have 1st count next hand, and we average 10 pts as pone. 18+ pts we need.

Pegging should be a little better with (A). We have 2-2-7 working for us there. And it generates, on average, about 1 more pt than (B)

So I go for (A).
Gougie00
4148 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 8:44 AM
Nice puzzle. 55 or 57 to the crib? I chose 5-7, preferring to hold more points in the hand.
JRCeagle78
796 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Tuesday 9:19 AM
I first have to decide which is more important at this stage of the game. Points in the hand or position after all is counted. The pegging value for both discards (5-5)(5d-7d)are fairly equal, but it is hard to dismiss the pegging value of the 3-card eleven(7-2-2). I chose the 5-5 discard because the final position possibility appears to be more in our favor. The Queen starter card will bear this out. During the play of the hand, the 2-2 may be the two most important cards of the hand. The whole play of this hand hinges NOT on our cards, but rather, the first play of the pone.
dgergens
472 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Tuesday 10:08 AM
Hedging my crib in case pone gives me some X's or some 7's or 8's. I don't think the pair of 5's is going to be THAT MUCH greater than one 5.
joekayak
976 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Tuesday 10:45 AM
At 93, we need all we can get. 5-5 is such a powerful throw to ones own crib, can give up a sue 6 in hand plus 2 in crib for 4 in hand and hopefully 10 in crib. Opponent at 96 argues for OFF OFF OFF
Ras2829
3607 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 11:47 AM
At hole 93 with opponent well beyond, it's off., off. off., play on the lead although would take 15-2 on 7/8 lead rather than pair. Will try to parlay the 2-2 back-to-back in end to pegging sequence. Might even pick off a lone deuce. Of course, as stated by others the magic eleven often works when playing the 7 on a X-point lead . The 7 response forces the five off the play and will often advance the count to 27 which is what we are seeking. You might like to see the discard profiles for 5-5 and 5-7 (only two options that I looked at) in my reply to JRCeagle78 above.
Coeurdelion
4073 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 2:42 PM
I think it's between 2-2-7-8 (5-5) and 2-2-5-8 ((5D-7):

2-2-7-8: 4pts + 8¾pts (Schell: 8.79) = 12¾pts

2-2-5-8: 6pts + 6pts (Schell: 6.01) = 12pts

Potential:

2-2-7-8: Improves with 22, 3333, 4444, 55, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 7/8/11pts with 22, 55, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 20 cuts.

2-2-5-8: Improves with 22, 3333, 55, 6666, 777, 888 + 16xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 12pts with 22, 55, 888 = 7 cuts.

Position:

We're 3pts short of position and Pone is already there. If they score the average 10pts They'll be in position to go out the following deal. I think we need to play Offense to go out as Pone next deal.

Pegging:

Both hands will peg well but 2-2-7-8 has a 3-card magic eleven so I think it will peg better.

Summary:

2-2-7-8 has a starting value ¾pt more than 2-2-5-8 and has 20 cuts for 7-11pts compred to 7 cuts for 12pts. 2-2-5-8 has more cuts for improvement but I believe 2-2-7-8 will peg better. So I'll throw 5-5.
HalscribCLX
3846 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 2:45 PM
At 93*-96 playing a Bold strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W1 %___W2 %
2-2-7-8___6.09+3.17+8.88=18.14____1.3____43.9
2-2-5S-8__8.09+3.54+6.03=17.66____1.4____37.0

Offense_______L1 %___L2 %
2-2-7-8_______0.4____28.8
2-2-5S-8______0.4____32.9

2-2-7-8 is better for expected averages by 0.48pt and is significantly better for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 5-5 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Andy (muesli64)
1661 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 3:44 PM
Hedged the bets.
Goo
43 votes

Joined: November 2019

   
Tuesday 4:29 PM