January 13, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0*-0  ?
61%
31%
4%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 210

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

dec
4755 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:37 AM
Offense and defense on this keep. Although keeping the two pairs was an interesting option. dec
james500
2374 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 4:41 AM
No "hopenosis" from me.
Any cut bar a 4 is welcome.
Rosemarie44
1476 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 5:09 AM
I obviously chose the two pairs with 5- Q in my crib.
RubyTuesday
313 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Monday 5:14 AM
Rosemarie says exactly what I thought!
Gougie00
4148 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 5:33 AM
When it doubt, face-five.

I was in doubt.
mfetchCT425
458 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Monday 5:58 AM
5-Q (or 5 and any 10/face) has much more potential than A-A to our crib on average. I think this is the optimal way to hold a combined 6 points today. We may be able to use our aces at the end of a pegging sequence for some nice pegs as well.
JQT
2704 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 7:03 AM
What jumps out immediately is of course Toss (5 Q), getting the "Nickel and Dime" into Our Crib.

But those two 6 Cards have a "strong attraction" to that 5 Card as well, and for many players, they can seem to want to "pull" that 5 Card towards Our Hand today, with the result that Toss (A A) possibly ends up in Our Crib.

I have often said that Toss (A A) is probably one of the most under-valued discards to our Own Crib, which is not to say that it's a very great or powerful discard, but rather that its value as a discard is frequently thought to be less than it really is.

This undervaluing of Toss (A A) when we're the Dealer has a valid explanation: we know that a PAIR of Aces can often be useful for pegging Two, or Three, or sometimes even Eight or Nine Holes! And so, this is what ultimately "pulls us back" toward the original idea of Toss (5 Q).

In fact, a PAIR of Aces alongside a Middle Card, such as a 6, 7, 8, or 9 Card, is an ideal and often 'explosive pegging mixture,' especially when we are the Dealer.

And thus, I'll Keep (A A 6 6) and Toss (5 Q) today, but not before at least strongly considering Toss (A A), which in many instances can also *energize* an 'Otherwise Dull Crib.'

In spite of not choosing Toss (A A), let's not underestimate it, either!
horus93
624 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Monday 7:03 AM
I was tempted to throw a-a but even with the powerful 5-6 in hand I think pure hand+crib averages will make this the best choice today. I'd shoot for "optimal" pegging after the cut.
wasa
1479 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Monday 7:12 AM
To me this was obvious, but when I saw it was a RAS submission I did ponder it for a while. I really can't see the advantages of tossing the A-A over the 5-Q unless I know a 4 or a 7 would be cut. And if a 7 is cut it helps my hand.
JCM
364 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Monday 7:33 AM
(Q-5) to crib for me.

A-A-6-6 could be useful for pegging.

One of my Opps kept A-A-6-6 in an endplay situation, last Friday. She was pone and she won. By pegging :-)
Goo
43 votes

Joined: November 2019

Monday 12:00 PM
I did not like 5-7 to crib.
Coeurdelion
4073 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 12:40 PM
It looks like a straight choice between A-A-6-6 (5-Q) and 5-6-6-Q (A-A):

A-A-6-6: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 10½pts

5-6-6-Q: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 9¼pts

Potential:

A-A-6-6: Improves with AA, 2222, 3333, 66, 7777, 8888, 9999 = 20 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/12pts with AA, 2222, 66, 7777, 8888, 9999 = 16 cuts.

5-6-6-Q: Improves with 3333, 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 8/10/14pts with 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 9999, QQQ = 20 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to achieve the average 16pts.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think A-A-6-6 will peg better although 5-6-6-Q has a magic eleven which will be useful.

Summary:

A-A-6-6 has a starting value 1¼pts higher but 5-6-6-Q has more cuts for improvement, more for a good/very good hand. Despite this I don't think 5-6-6-Q will catch up the 1¼pts so I'll select 5-Q to discard.
HalscribCLX
3846 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 1:17 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
A-A-6-6___6.35+(-1.91)+6.57=11.01____38.8____51.9
5-6-6-Q___7.13+(-1.83)+5.13=10.43____37.1____50.0

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
A-A-6-6_______25.7____22.7
5-6-6-Q_______26.1____24.2

A-A-6-6 is better for expected averages by 0.58pt and is slightly better for both Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 5-Q to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
3607 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 2:29 PM
As dealer of opening hand it is def., def., def., play off the lead. Would pair an Ace or six lead and score 15-2 on a 9 lead. On a mid card lead other than 9, would split the Aces. On a X-lead will keep Aces intact and attempt to play back to back. Who knows? Might even catch n/d with a lone Ace. Have your strategy in mind before the cards hit the table. Decision making is much easier if you do so in relationship to position and with your response in mind. Too many just drop the cards with no plan in mind. "If they work, they work!" The deuce starter card is one of the cards which helps the A-A-6-6 very much although does not appear to be of direct benefit to the 5-Q crib toss. RAS just plays the numbers. The 5-Q to own crib averages 6.593 (1,251) 7/91, scores two points 3.4537%, tallies 3-7 50.76%, reaches 8-11 39.968%, and jumps to 12 or more 5.835%. Number in parentheses represent number of times discarded/recorded in live play to own crib.
dgergens
472 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Monday 4:46 PM
Q,5 has a much higher upside potential in my crib than in my hand. As for all the virtual what/if analysis of card playing sequences for variety of possible cards the n/d might have... I'm just not in that league.