January 12, 2020
45% 45% | |||||
42% 42% | |||||
3% 3% | |||||
2% 2% | |||||
1% 1% | |||||
1% 1% | |||||
1% 1% | |||||
1% 1% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
Total votes: 172 |
Joined: January 2019 (1196 votes) Sunday 3:35 AM
I threw 5 7 to dealer’s crib whilst hoping that didn’t mean I’d thrown the game away. I felt that the risk of throwing those cards was more than offset by the chance of my hand improving with the cut. |
Joined: June 2013 (4346 votes) Sunday 4:59 AM
Dealer's almost in position, but not quite where they'd want to be. I don't need many points to become the first player to deal from 17+.
I'll be a lone voice today I suspect, but I've discarded 3-9 to hopefully nullify their crib, as opposed to 5-7 or 9-9 hoping to hold a big hand. 3 lead. byrd says: I am with you. Every cut except a 2 helps this hand. We’ve not thrown obvious points to the dealer and we’ve avoided the big crib for the dealer when they toss mid cards like 7-8 or 9-6. james500 says: Hi Byrd, hope you're well. Thanks for the support. My thinking was that a second 3 and a second 9 known to be out of circulation, must work in our favour and allow us to maintain the relative advantage. Eight points from 3399 would be nice though! |
Joined: April 2008 (6856 votes) Sunday 5:24 AM
I think I know which hand will peg better. Never to keen on those 3-6-9 cuts. Rather hedge on 2-5-7 starters. Now as long as those sixteen face cards do not end up like 10-J or 6s... dec Ras2829 says: Hi dec: Wouldn't you know? The only card in the deck that won't add points to this hand ends up on the deck. It's uncanny how often that occurs. dec says: You know another one is Ace thru Three double run.. and the starter is Five! dec |
Joined: March 2008 (6172 votes) Sunday 6:35 AM
I went for the 12/14 hand. Didnt get a cut, but it probably wont help the 99 either. I saw the sure 8 with the 3399, but 57 in the crib would surely go *BOOM*. scottcrib says: I'm with you Gougie00! |
Joined: March 2016 (2241 votes) Sunday 6:38 AM
Expected averages favor tossing 9-9 which is valued less than 5-7 to opponent's crib. Let's hear it from others. |
Joined: October 2008 (4517 votes) Sunday 8:04 AM
On average, Toss (5 7) does way more damage 'over the board' than does Toss (9 9).
Meanwhile, I like the three-card "Magic Eleven" in (3 3 5), therefore let's lead a Trey and try to work that (31-2) 'magic' today. |
Joined: November 2019 (78 votes) Sunday 8:37 AM
I did not like 5-7 to crib. dec says: It is not our crib today. Although positions might lead to different trains of thoughts today. dec |
Joined: March 2009 (2825 votes) Sunday 8:59 AM
Once you decide to keep the nickel, the rest is easy! |
Joined: August 2019 (2071 votes) Sunday 10:55 AM
Much more help for 3357 than 3399 to my hand. If a 6 is cut, then it still helps my hand. |
Joined: March 2009 (2865 votes) Sunday 12:07 PM
Not crazy about knocking my hand down to 2 points, so 99 it is. 335 works well on the pegging quite often. |
Joined: April 2019 (910 votes) Sunday 12:31 PM
I'm with James. In addition to his points(see above), I've found that discarding cards that "need" each other into Opp's crib, often works well - since the other needed cards are reduced in number.
Ex: discard (3-9) - there are only 3 other threes and 3 other nines available, normally. Instead of the usual 4. In this hand there are only 2 of each card available. So - likely that a helping starter card won't be turned. (A-7) would be another example of such a discard to Opp's crib. |
Joined: May 2016 (1877 votes) Sunday 1:06 PM
I'm on the DEF bandwagon. But it's kind of empty. |
Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes) Sunday 1:36 PM
It looks like it's between 3-3-9-9 (5-7) and 3-3-5-7 (9-9):
3-3-9-9: 8pts - 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = +1pt 3-3-5-7: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.39) = -¼pt Potential: 3-3-9-9: Improves with 33, 6666, 99 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 12/14/20pts with all cuts. 3-3-5-7: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 9/12/14pts with 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 777 = 16 cuts. Position: If we were First Dealer we've scored the average but First Pone has scored above average by 5pts but hasn't quite caught up position yet. So I'll continue to play Defense. Pegging: Playing Defense 3-3-9-9 will probably be better but 3-3-5-7 will also peg well. Summary: 3-3-9-9 has a starting value 1¼pts more than 3-3-5-7 but 3-3-5-7 has many more cuts for improvement and more for good/very good hand. 3-3-9-9 does however have a much higher maximum. Even so I'll go with the hand with the best potential and throw 9-9. |
Joined: February 2008 (5704 votes) Sunday 1:42 PM
At 16-15* playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Net Optimal___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W8 %____W9 % 3-3-5-7___9.13+(-1.02)+(-6.04)=2.07____45.3____48.3 3-3-5-9H__6.65+(-0.93)+(-4.82)=0.90____38.1____45.5 3-3-9-9___9.13+(-1.91)+(-6.81)=0.40____41.9____45.6 Optimal______L8 %____L9 % 3-3-5-7______40.1____29.9 3-3-5-9H_____36.7____32.0 3-3-9-9______40.5____32.9 3-3-5-7 is best for expected averages by 1.17pts and is significantly best for Win %s. 3-3-5-9 is lowest for Loss %s because of the safer 7-9C discard but even so I'll select 9-9 to discard. After the A cut I'll play a Safe strategy and lead the 3S: Defense__________Dealer's Pegging Pts. 3______________________(-2.19) 7______________________(-3.01) 5______________________(-3.23) |
Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes) Sunday 3:33 PM
At hole 16 as n/d HalscribCLX above says it all for me. Holding 3-3-5-7 has huge edge as all cards except for an Ace add points. The usual downside of 3-3-9-9 applies here. The hand is helped only by a 3, 6, or 9 and n/d has discarded 5-7, a very strong discard either side of the board. My empirical data places the 9-9 6.519 (206) more than a half point lower on average than the 5-7 7.083 (133). If looking for a low-scoring crib the 9-9 scores two points 30.732% while 5-7 scores two points 6.913%. That's a huge difference and neither will ever score zero. Lead the 3S which reserves the option to fake the flush by dropping 5S as second card played. If that looks reasonably safe, always wise to dump a lone five early. So start with eye towards optimal pegging strategy. Once seeing the non-helpful Ace on deck, downshift to an ultra defensive mode. |
Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes) Sunday 3:34 PM
Get the picture now? |
Joined: August 2009 (2340 votes) Sunday 4:07 PM
As above. 9 x 9 no great harm.Hand much better. |
Joined: April 2019 (910 votes) Sunday 4:43 PM
Hmmm - I guess James, Byrd and I(and a few others) will never know how 3-5-7-9(3-9) stacked up. Ras2829 says: Hi JCM: Generally if you take a hand of six points with a potential of 14 and strip it back to two points with a potential of 7 to save less than two points in potential crib score, you'll be losing ground on the crib board. Only time I might save this two points would be in end game with first count needing 2 holes to win with dealer 3-5 pegs out. With cards ranging from 3-9, would likely either peg two along the way or could wiggle enough to avoid giving up enough for dealer to peg out. That's my take on it. |