January 12, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
16-15*  ?
45%
42%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 172
RubyTuesday
897 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 3:35 AM
I threw 5 7 to dealer’s crib whilst hoping that didn’t mean I’d thrown the game away. I felt that the risk of throwing those cards was more than offset by the chance of my hand improving with the cut.
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 4:59 AM
Dealer's almost in position, but not quite where they'd want to be. I don't need many points to become the first player to deal from 17+.

I'll be a lone voice today I suspect, but I've discarded 3-9 to hopefully nullify their crib, as opposed to 5-7 or 9-9 hoping to hold a big hand.

3 lead.
byrd says: I am with you. Every cut except a 2 helps this hand. We’ve not thrown obvious points to the dealer and we’ve avoided the big crib for the dealer when they toss mid cards like 7-8 or 9-6.
james500 says: Hi Byrd, hope you're well. Thanks for the support. My thinking was that a second 3 and a second 9 known to be out of circulation, must work in our favour and allow us to maintain the relative advantage. Eight points from 3399 would be nice though!
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 5:24 AM
I think I know which hand will peg better. Never to keen on those 3-6-9 cuts. Rather hedge on 2-5-7 starters. Now as long as those sixteen face cards do not end up like 10-J or 6s... dec
Ras2829 says: Hi dec: Wouldn't you know? The only card in the deck that won't add points to this hand ends up on the deck. It's uncanny how often that occurs.
dec says: You know another one is Ace thru Three double run.. and the starter is Five! dec
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 6:35 AM
I went for the 12/14 hand. Didnt get a cut, but it probably wont help the 99 either. I saw the sure 8 with the 3399, but 57 in the crib would surely go *BOOM*.
scottcrib says: I'm with you Gougie00!
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 6:38 AM
Expected averages favor tossing 9-9 which is valued less than 5-7 to opponent's crib. Let's hear it from others.
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 8:04 AM
On average, Toss (5 7) does way more damage 'over the board' than does Toss (9 9).

Meanwhile, I like the three-card "Magic Eleven" in (3 3 5), therefore let's lead a Trey and try to work that (31-2) 'magic' today.
Goo
78 votes

Joined: November 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 8:37 AM
I did not like 5-7 to crib.
dec says: It is not our crib today. Although positions might lead to different trains of thoughts today. dec
King Richard
2825 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 8:59 AM
Once you decide to keep the nickel, the rest is easy!
scottcrib
1608 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 10:55 AM
Much more help for 3357 than 3399 to my hand. If a 6 is cut, then it still helps my hand.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 12:07 PM
Not crazy about knocking my hand down to 2 points, so 99 it is. 335 works well on the pegging quite often.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 12:31 PM
I'm with James. In addition to his points(see above), I've found that discarding cards that "need" each other into Opp's crib, often works well - since the other needed cards are reduced in number.
Ex: discard (3-9) - there are only 3 other threes and 3 other nines available, normally. Instead of the usual 4. In this hand there are only 2 of each card available. So - likely that a helping starter card won't be turned.
(A-7) would be another example of such a discard to Opp's crib.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 1:06 PM
I'm on the DEF bandwagon. But it's kind of empty.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 1:36 PM
It looks like it's between 3-3-9-9 (5-7) and 3-3-5-7 (9-9):

3-3-9-9: 8pts - 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = +1pt

3-3-5-7: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.39) = -¼pt

Potential:

3-3-9-9: Improves with 33, 6666, 99 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 12/14/20pts with all cuts.

3-3-5-7: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 9/12/14pts with 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 777 = 16 cuts.

Position:

If we were First Dealer we've scored the average but First Pone has scored above average by 5pts but hasn't quite caught up position yet. So I'll continue to play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense 3-3-9-9 will probably be better but 3-3-5-7 will also peg well.

Summary:

3-3-9-9 has a starting value 1¼pts more than 3-3-5-7 but 3-3-5-7 has many more cuts for improvement and more for good/very good hand. 3-3-9-9 does however have a much higher maximum. Even so I'll go with the hand with the best potential and throw 9-9.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 1:42 PM
At 16-15* playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Net
Optimal___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W8 %____W9 %
3-3-5-7___9.13+(-1.02)+(-6.04)=2.07____45.3____48.3
3-3-5-9H__6.65+(-0.93)+(-4.82)=0.90____38.1____45.5
3-3-9-9___9.13+(-1.91)+(-6.81)=0.40____41.9____45.6

Optimal______L8 %____L9 %
3-3-5-7______40.1____29.9
3-3-5-9H_____36.7____32.0
3-3-9-9______40.5____32.9

3-3-5-7 is best for expected averages by 1.17pts and is significantly best for Win %s. 3-3-5-9 is lowest for Loss %s because of the safer 7-9C discard but even so I'll select 9-9 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play a Safe strategy and lead the 3S:

Defense__________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3______________________(-2.19)
7______________________(-3.01)
5______________________(-3.23)
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:33 PM
At hole 16 as n/d HalscribCLX above says it all for me. Holding 3-3-5-7 has huge edge as all cards except for an Ace add points. The usual downside of 3-3-9-9 applies here. The hand is helped only by a 3, 6, or 9 and n/d has discarded 5-7, a very strong discard either side of the board. My empirical data places the 9-9 6.519 (206) more than a half point lower on average than the 5-7 7.083 (133). If looking for a low-scoring crib the 9-9 scores two points 30.732% while 5-7 scores two points 6.913%. That's a huge difference and neither will ever score zero. Lead the 3S which reserves the option to fake the flush by dropping 5S as second card played. If that looks reasonably safe, always wise to dump a lone five early. So start with eye towards optimal pegging strategy. Once seeing the non-helpful Ace on deck, downshift to an ultra defensive mode.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:34 PM
Get the picture now?
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 4:07 PM
As above. 9 x 9 no great harm.Hand much better.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 4:43 PM
Hmmm - I guess James, Byrd and I(and a few others) will never know how 3-5-7-9(3-9) stacked up.
Ras2829 says: Hi JCM: Generally if you take a hand of six points with a potential of 14 and strip it back to two points with a potential of 7 to save less than two points in potential crib score, you'll be losing ground on the crib board. Only time I might save this two points would be in end game with first count needing 2 holes to win with dealer 3-5 pegs out. With cards ranging from 3-9, would likely either peg two along the way or could wiggle enough to avoid giving up enough for dealer to peg out. That's my take on it.