Sunday 3:35 AM

I threw 5 7 to dealer’s crib whilst hoping that didn’t mean I’d thrown the game away. I felt that the risk of throwing those cards was more than offset by the chance of my hand improving with the cut.

   

Sunday 4:59 AM

Dealer's almost in position, but not quite where they'd want to be. I don't need many points to become the first player to deal from 17+.

I'll be a lone voice today I suspect, but I've discarded 3-9 to hopefully nullify their crib, as opposed to 5-7 or 9-9 hoping to hold a big hand.

3 lead.

   

Sunday 5:24 AM

I think I know which hand will peg better. Never to keen on those 3-6-9 cuts. Rather hedge on 2-5-7 starters. Now as long as those sixteen face cards do not end up like 10-J or 6s... dec

   

Sunday 6:35 AM

I went for the 12/14 hand. Didnt get a cut, but it probably wont help the 99 either. I saw the sure 8 with the 3399, but 57 in the crib would surely go *BOOM*.

   

Sunday 6:38 AM

Expected averages favor tossing 9-9 which is valued less than 5-7 to opponent's crib. Let's hear it from others.

   

Sunday 8:04 AM

On average, Toss (5 7) does way more damage 'over the board' than does Toss (9 9).

Meanwhile, I like the three-card "Magic Eleven" in (3 3 5), therefore let's lead a Trey and try to work that (31-2) 'magic' today.

   

Sunday 8:37 AM

I did not like 5-7 to crib.

   

Sunday 8:59 AM

Once you decide to keep the nickel, the rest is easy!

   

Sunday 10:55 AM

Much more help for 3357 than 3399 to my hand. If a 6 is cut, then it still helps my hand.

   

Sunday 12:07 PM

Not crazy about knocking my hand down to 2 points, so 99 it is. 335 works well on the pegging quite often.

   

Sunday 12:31 PM

I'm with James. In addition to his points(see above), I've found that discarding cards that "need" each other into Opp's crib, often works well - since the other needed cards are reduced in number.
Ex: discard (3-9) - there are only 3 other threes and 3 other nines available, normally. Instead of the usual 4. In this hand there are only 2 of each card available. So - likely that a helping starter card won't be turned.
(A-7) would be another example of such a discard to Opp's crib.

   

Sunday 1:06 PM

I'm on the DEF bandwagon. But it's kind of empty.

   

Sunday 1:36 PM

It looks like it's between 3-3-9-9 (5-7) and 3-3-5-7 (9-9):

3-3-9-9: 8pts - 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = +1pt

3-3-5-7: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.39) = -¼pt

Potential:

3-3-9-9: Improves with 33, 6666, 99 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 12/14/20pts with all cuts.

3-3-5-7: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 9/12/14pts with 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 777 = 16 cuts.

Position:

If we were First Dealer we've scored the average but First Pone has scored above average by 5pts but hasn't quite caught up position yet. So I'll continue to play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense 3-3-9-9 will probably be better but 3-3-5-7 will also peg well.

Summary:

3-3-9-9 has a starting value 1¼pts more than 3-3-5-7 but 3-3-5-7 has many more cuts for improvement and more for good/very good hand. 3-3-9-9 does however have a much higher maximum. Even so I'll go with the hand with the best potential and throw 9-9.

   

Sunday 1:42 PM

At 16-15* playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Net
Optimal___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W8 %____W9 %
3-3-5-7___9.13+(-1.02)+(-6.04)=2.07____45.3____48.3
3-3-5-9H__6.65+(-0.93)+(-4.82)=0.90____38.1____45.5
3-3-9-9___9.13+(-1.91)+(-6.81)=0.40____41.9____45.6

Optimal______L8 %____L9 %
3-3-5-7______40.1____29.9
3-3-5-9H_____36.7____32.0
3-3-9-9______40.5____32.9

3-3-5-7 is best for expected averages by 1.17pts and is significantly best for Win %s. 3-3-5-9 is lowest for Loss %s because of the safer 7-9C discard but even so I'll select 9-9 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play a Safe strategy and lead the 3S:

Defense__________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3______________________(-2.19)
7______________________(-3.01)
5______________________(-3.23)

Sunday 3:33 PM

At hole 16 as n/d HalscribCLX above says it all for me. Holding 3-3-5-7 has huge edge as all cards except for an Ace add points. The usual downside of 3-3-9-9 applies here. The hand is helped only by a 3, 6, or 9 and n/d has discarded 5-7, a very strong discard either side of the board. My empirical data places the 9-9 6.519 (206) more than a half point lower on average than the 5-7 7.083 (133). If looking for a low-scoring crib the 9-9 scores two points 30.732% while 5-7 scores two points 6.913%. That's a huge difference and neither will ever score zero. Lead the 3S which reserves the option to fake the flush by dropping 5S as second card played. If that looks reasonably safe, always wise to dump a lone five early. So start with eye towards optimal pegging strategy. Once seeing the non-helpful Ace on deck, downshift to an ultra defensive mode.

   

Sunday 3:34 PM

Get the picture now?

   

Sunday 4:07 PM

As above. 9 x 9 no great harm.Hand much better.

   

Sunday 4:43 PM

Hmmm - I guess James, Byrd and I(and a few others) will never know how 3-5-7-9(3-9) stacked up.