January 12, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
16-15*  ?
45%
42%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 172
RubyTuesday
462 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Sunday 3:35 AM
I threw 5 7 to dealer’s crib whilst hoping that didn’t mean I’d thrown the game away. I felt that the risk of throwing those cards was more than offset by the chance of my hand improving with the cut.
james500
2538 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 4:59 AM
Dealer's almost in position, but not quite where they'd want to be. I don't need many points to become the first player to deal from 17+.

I'll be a lone voice today I suspect, but I've discarded 3-9 to hopefully nullify their crib, as opposed to 5-7 or 9-9 hoping to hold a big hand.

3 lead.
dec
4920 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 5:24 AM
I think I know which hand will peg better. Never to keen on those 3-6-9 cuts. Rather hedge on 2-5-7 starters. Now as long as those sixteen face cards do not end up like 10-J or 6s... dec
Gougie00
4317 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 6:35 AM
I went for the 12/14 hand. Didnt get a cut, but it probably wont help the 99 either. I saw the sure 8 with the 3399, but 57 in the crib would surely go *BOOM*.
Rosemarie44
1611 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 6:38 AM
Expected averages favor tossing 9-9 which is valued less than 5-7 to opponent's crib. Let's hear it from others.
JQT
2875 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 8:04 AM
On average, Toss (5 7) does way more damage 'over the board' than does Toss (9 9).

Meanwhile, I like the three-card "Magic Eleven" in (3 3 5), therefore let's lead a Trey and try to work that (31-2) 'magic' today.
Goo
78 votes

Joined: November 2019

   
Sunday 8:37 AM
I did not like 5-7 to crib.
King Richard
2808 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Sunday 8:59 AM
Once you decide to keep the nickel, the rest is easy!
scottcrib
292 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Sunday 10:55 AM
Much more help for 3357 than 3399 to my hand. If a 6 is cut, then it still helps my hand.
Jazzselke
1508 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Sunday 12:07 PM
Not crazy about knocking my hand down to 2 points, so 99 it is. 335 works well on the pegging quite often.
JCM
375 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Sunday 12:31 PM
I'm with James. In addition to his points(see above), I've found that discarding cards that "need" each other into Opp's crib, often works well - since the other needed cards are reduced in number.
Ex: discard (3-9) - there are only 3 other threes and 3 other nines available, normally. Instead of the usual 4. In this hand there are only 2 of each card available. So - likely that a helping starter card won't be turned.
(A-7) would be another example of such a discard to Opp's crib.
joekayak
1112 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Sunday 1:06 PM
I'm on the DEF bandwagon. But it's kind of empty.
Coeurdelion
4235 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 1:36 PM
It looks like it's between 3-3-9-9 (5-7) and 3-3-5-7 (9-9):

3-3-9-9: 8pts - 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = +1pt

3-3-5-7: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.39) = -¼pt

Potential:

3-3-9-9: Improves with 33, 6666, 99 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 12/14/20pts with all cuts.

3-3-5-7: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 9/12/14pts with 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 777 = 16 cuts.

Position:

If we were First Dealer we've scored the average but First Pone has scored above average by 5pts but hasn't quite caught up position yet. So I'll continue to play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense 3-3-9-9 will probably be better but 3-3-5-7 will also peg well.

Summary:

3-3-9-9 has a starting value 1¼pts more than 3-3-5-7 but 3-3-5-7 has many more cuts for improvement and more for good/very good hand. 3-3-9-9 does however have a much higher maximum. Even so I'll go with the hand with the best potential and throw 9-9.
HalscribCLX
4003 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 1:42 PM
At 16-15* playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Net
Optimal___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W8 %____W9 %
3-3-5-7___9.13+(-1.02)+(-6.04)=2.07____45.3____48.3
3-3-5-9H__6.65+(-0.93)+(-4.82)=0.90____38.1____45.5
3-3-9-9___9.13+(-1.91)+(-6.81)=0.40____41.9____45.6

Optimal______L8 %____L9 %
3-3-5-7______40.1____29.9
3-3-5-9H_____36.7____32.0
3-3-9-9______40.5____32.9

3-3-5-7 is best for expected averages by 1.17pts and is significantly best for Win %s. 3-3-5-9 is lowest for Loss %s because of the safer 7-9C discard but even so I'll select 9-9 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play a Safe strategy and lead the 3S:

Defense__________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3______________________(-2.19)
7______________________(-3.01)
5______________________(-3.23)
Ras2829
3774 votes

Joined: November 2008

Sunday 3:33 PM
At hole 16 as n/d HalscribCLX above says it all for me. Holding 3-3-5-7 has huge edge as all cards except for an Ace add points. The usual downside of 3-3-9-9 applies here. The hand is helped only by a 3, 6, or 9 and n/d has discarded 5-7, a very strong discard either side of the board. My empirical data places the 9-9 6.519 (206) more than a half point lower on average than the 5-7 7.083 (133). If looking for a low-scoring crib the 9-9 scores two points 30.732% while 5-7 scores two points 6.913%. That's a huge difference and neither will ever score zero. Lead the 3S which reserves the option to fake the flush by dropping 5S as second card played. If that looks reasonably safe, always wise to dump a lone five early. So start with eye towards optimal pegging strategy. Once seeing the non-helpful Ace on deck, downshift to an ultra defensive mode.
Ras2829
3774 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 3:34 PM
Get the picture now?
Andy (muesli64)
1770 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Sunday 4:07 PM
As above. 9 x 9 no great harm.Hand much better.
JCM
375 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Sunday 4:43 PM
Hmmm - I guess James, Byrd and I(and a few others) will never know how 3-5-7-9(3-9) stacked up.