January 11, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Gougie00
50-44*  ?
54%
22%
6%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
Total votes: 186
dec
6353 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:04 AM
All right I will step into the batters box. I like keeping the 4-4-5 together and since a three or six cut will get me a dozen thats enough for me to split the eights. With these positions I will lead the four and only take fifteens and goes here. If it was an eight point hand I would jettision that pair. dec
mrob2199
1430 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 4:53 AM
No reason to keep only 4 points to discard the dangerous pair of eights-we still are open ended with the 445 and the q-8 should be a pretty safe toss
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 5:14 AM
Tossing 8-Q at this position. Expected averages favor this selection of retention and discard, too.
cribbagepogo says: Except you gave dealer one more chance to score with throwing two diamonds.
james500
3918 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 5:20 AM
Dealer is in position, but only just. Q-8 could help to knock him/her off their stride, and allow me to take the relative lead.

With the location of a second 8 and a 7 known, I'll lead my 8.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 6:01 AM
Dealer in marginal position, we are not going to get to Hole 70, so defense it is, although a favorable cut could get us around the corner
mfetchCT425
1395 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 6:04 AM
Agree with those above. 8-Q is a strong defensive discard. Keep the 4-4-5 together which is open both ends. Will lead the 4c.
Gougie00
5725 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 6:37 AM
I happened to be sitting next to Statz when dealt this hand. Dave said he'd throw the 88 because we needed offense. I tossed 8Q, and ended up getting only 4 points.

Positional puzzle, and I am lousy at taking the calculated risk.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 6:43 AM
safest discard with maximum potential upside possibility
JQT says: Toss (8 8) has a Crib Value of 6.8 points (number 79 out of 91, but see next sentence for more detailed data...) while Toss (8 Q) has a Crib Value of 4.3 points (number 11 out of 91). In addition, of all the exceptions that were painstakingly tallied empirically over many years of work performed by RAS, Toss (8 8) was found to actually be THE MOST UNDERVALUED (and thus more dangerous) discard, as it tended to produce an average Crib Value closer to about 8.14 points, or more than a full point higher than that as determined by Colvert, Hessel, et al. Regardless, Toss (8 8) is desperately trying to be among the bottom or Terrible Twelve "Dirty Dozen" discards we can unleash 'over the board,' whereas Toss (8 Q) on the other hand (pun definitely intended!) makes it clear that it belongs amongst the denizens of the Top Twelve in terms of safety when given to our opponent. I have warned players in the past of attempting to avoid falling under that almost hypnotic spell, that of, after having looked at those six cards that were dealt to us, then proceeding to hand over those two cards that will most benefit not us, but our opponent!
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Thanks for remembering my project of more than a decade which entailed 1/4 million cribs. Still have many of the lined tablet sheets that were used prior to the advent of computer-generated spread sheets. Still have not "milked" that data for all that I would like. Don't know if will live long enough to complete a project that is now underway. It's the love of this wonderful game that keeps me in the fray.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 7:07 AM
-10/+0 I'll try to bilk
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 8:59 AM
Best compromise I think.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 11:30 AM
Seems kind of important to play the best DEF possible on the throw with what is dealt. I think that's Q-8. Seems like 8-8 could be like lighter fluid on a campfire.
dgergens says: It's OK when it's your own campfire.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 1:04 PM
Keeping 4,4,5 together seems better than 4,5,Q. And if you give dealer a pair, that just offsets the 2 points you get by keeping the 5,Q. So, this wast a tough decision.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 1:23 PM
The (8-Q) discard seems so much better then the (8-8) discard. Giving up 2 pts in hand, but avoiding putting much more than that in Opp's crib.
RubyTuesday
909 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 1:29 PM
Unsuited Q 8 to crib where it will hopefully do no harm. Just checked the turn up, am still happy with my throw.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 3:19 PM
Playing Defense I'll throw 8-Q and keep 4-4-5-8. Playing Offense I think it will be 4-4-5-Q (8-8):

4-4-5-8: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -2¼pts

4-4-5-Q: 4pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 6.82) = -2¾pts

Potential:

4-4-5-8: Improves with 2222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 6/12pts with 2222, 3333, 44, 6666, 7777 = 18 cuts.

4-4-5-Q: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777 + 15xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 8/10/14pts with AAAA, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, QQQ = 20 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is bang on positional hole but we're 10pts short of where we need to be. So I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Both will peg reasonably well playing Offense.

Summary:

4-4-5-8 has a starting value ½pt better than 4-4-5-Q. They both have a similar number of cuts for improvement but 4-4-5-8 has 18 cuts for 6/12pts while 4-4-5-Q has 20 cuts for 8-14pts. Playing Offense I'll risk the 8-8 throw.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:38 PM
At 50-44* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W5 %____W6 %
4-4-5-8D__5.48+1.80+(-4.06)=3.22____12.6____34.2
4-4-5-Q___7.30+1.57+(-6.21)=2.66____16.0____34.0

Offense______L5 %____L6 %
4-4-5-8D_____13.8____37.1
4-4-5-Q______18.9____41.1

4-4-5-8 is better for expected averages by 0.56pt and although 4-4-5-Q is better for Win %s 4-4-5-8 is much lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 8S-Q to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead the 4C and play Defense:

Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
4___________________(-2.10)
8___________________(-2.76)
5___________________(-3.30)
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:40 PM
Choosing off., off., off calls for discarding the defensive 8-Q. How can that be offense? If offense amounts to the most potential combined points (potential pegs, hand score, less the crib score), the 8-Q discard provides that. Today as so often in live play, when RAS tosses two mid cards, the starter card is the card I fear most. Hello 7! Dealer has position with little to spare at hole 44 (2nd Street CPZ 43-47). Moving down the board, low-scoring discard to opponent crib, are the best things I can do on this hand. If dealer were at hole 41-42, would have chosen a defensive pegging strategy. Here will take what I can though want to avoid long run or a triple. Will lead the 8 spot, eliciting a X-point response, then it's a four spot for count of 22. See where that goes. Often results in a run of three and a go. Once in a while it even finds a single four spot in the dealer hand. Put the count over 15 with the X-pointer as didn't want to make the count under 15 with the play of a four spot. What I describe is quite common with players favoring advancing the count past 15. There are many chances to take advantage of this tendency in live or electronic play. Try it. You'll like it!