Friday 3:22 AM

I am not swinging for the fences here by doing 2-9. Thirteen cuts would do twelve here plus it can be used for defensive eleven pegging purposes. Might be able to peg with the 2-4-4 combo by trapping a three or getting the fours for three-four points. dec

   

Friday 4:41 AM

As above.

   

Friday 5:23 AM

Ditto.

   

Friday 5:32 AM

Don't have a discard in this hand worth the sacrifice in hand score. They're very few! Needed to have the deck at 2nd Street CPZ (43-47). With opponent already at hole 50, will choose an optimal pegging strategy. More later!

   

Friday 5:47 AM

It seems as though Toss (A 6) is the straightforward way to proceed today.

At just Two Holes shy of the Second Street 'par' hole, it's way too soon to panic and try something as 'reaching' as Toss (6 9). And Toss (2 9) seems even more desperate.

But I suppose we also have Toss (A 4) to consider here, 'splitting up' our resources.

But the 'known' fact that Toss (A 4) shall produce at least Two Points in Our Crib does not quite 'make up' for the reality of busting up our chances for an Easy Dozen with *any* matching card during the Cut after we Toss (A 6).

Therefore, let's stick with our original idea and Toss (A 6).

   

Friday 6:06 AM

Maybe I'm guilty of "looking a gift horse in the mouth", but I'll try an alternative to 2-4-4-9.

The only card that isn't immediately helpful to me in some way is an 8.

Should Pone have the appropriate cards, this hand may peg well with its 9-2 eleven, followed by the 6-4 five-trap.

   

Friday 6:23 AM

Tossing A-6 to hold a hand starting at 6 points and has the potential of increasing to 8 or 12 points with 23 cuts.

   

Friday 6:54 AM

Will hold points in the hand to keep potential for a dozen. (Hand first / Crib second logic, ie, small hand rule I believe). Like this hand for pegging too with its magic 11 (9-2) and three close knit small cards.

   

Friday 7:20 AM

2-4-4-9(A-6). THe hand just naturally divides that way. 2 pts short of par as dealer is OK.

(Opp is way short)

Peg aggressively.

   

Friday 7:45 AM

   

Friday 7:50 AM

ooops. left it empty. first time commenting. a 4-A in the crib gives us a guaranteed 2 pts in the crib with the possibility of more with any X cards from the Pone or cut.

   

Friday 8:01 AM

I debated tossing the A-4 before keeping the 2-4-4-9 in case a 3 is cut.

   

Friday 12:04 PM

I'll keep the sure 6 with the chance for 12. I'll peg if possible. Mediocre position for both players.

   

Friday 3:18 PM

I think its between 2-4-4-9 (A-6), A-2-4-4 (6-9), 2-4-6-9 (A-4C) and A-4-4-6 (2-9):

2-4-4-9: 6pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.85) = 9¾pts

A-2-4-4: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 7¼pts

2-4-6-9: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 9¼pts

A-4-4-6: 4pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.71) = 7¾pts

Potential:

2-4-4-9: Improves with 222, 3333, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12pts with 222, 3333, 44, 999 = 12 cuts.

A-2-4-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 6/10pts with 3333, 44, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 30 cuts.

2-4-6-9: Improves with 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/9/10pts with 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 666, 999 = 20 cuts.

A-4-4-6: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 44, 5555, 666 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

Position:

We're 2pts short of position but Pone is 10pts short of where they need to be. I'll play cautious offense.

Pegging:

With a 3-card magic elevens I think A-4-4-6 and A-2-4-4 will peg best.

Summary:

2-4-4-9 has a starting value ½pt more than 2-4-6-9. A-2-4-4 has guaranteed improvement and 30 cuts for 6/10pts. 2-4-6-9 has the second best starting value and 20 cuts for 8-10pts. A-4-4-6 also has many cuts for improvement and 28 for 8-14pts. It also should peg well. Each hand has its merits but I'll hold the most with 2-4-4-9 and 12 cuts for 12pts. So I'll throw A-6.

   

Friday 3:23 PM

At 42*-50 playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %___W6 %
2-4-6-9___6.13+3.22+5.34=14.69____8.5____27.5
2-4-4-9___8.04+3.00+3.59=14.63____8.4____27.3
A-2-4-4___5.70+3.33+5.13=14.16____7.4____21.9
A-4-4-6___7.61+3.15+3.36=14.12____7.8____24.8

Offense_______L5 %___L6 %
2-4-6-9_____\_17.5___46.5
2-4-4-9_______16.6___45.8
A-2-4-4_______27.8___55.6
A-4-4-6_______19.9___50.6

2-4-6-9 is best for expected averages by 0.06pt and is very slightly best for Win %s. Although 2-4-4-9 is slightly lower for Loss %s I'll select A-4 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

   

Friday 5:47 PM

6-game report:

Not very good today. Only won 2, lost 4, 672 out of a possible 726. Only 14 players - we have a lot of snow today - I think it kept some away. I was dealer at 1st hand 5 times! But that didn't help much.

An interesting situation cropped up. Since it was a pegging decision, I'll describe it here, although I will submit it as well, since it's also a good hand for discussion on what to discard.

116* - 109.
My 6 cards: 2-7-J-K(heart flush) also 3-5.

Opp needs 12 pts to count out first. I'm virtually certain to count out, IF I get to count.

I need just 5 pts.
(A)Should I try to peg the 5 pts, as dealer, before Opp counts?
(B) Or should I try to limit the pegging, hoping Opp can't make the 12 pts(average is 10), and then counting out myself? That choice will have a great effect on what I discard.

I ultimately decided on (B) - but I'm not sure if that was the best choice.

Please feel free to critique what happened.

I discarded (2-3) keeping 5-7-J-K, hoping to restrict the pegging.

An Ace was cut.

The pegging sequence went:

Opp - 6
Me - K(16)
Opp - 6(22)
Me - 7(29)
Opp - A,A (31) 4 pts.
Me - J-5 (15) 3 pts.

Opp had 6-6-A-A-A for 10 pts - enough to go out, after the 4 pts of pegging.

Final score: 119-121

Where did I go wrong?

Thanks in advance for any replies.