December 5, 2019
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Total votes: 198 |
JQT 4143 votes Joined: October 2008 |
    Thursday 3:03 AM
The acknowledged choice from such an arrangement is of course Toss (2 3), but in some intricate Endgame Battle Situations, we can certainly consider Toss (J Q).
This latter option gives us a nice connection to yesterday's puzzle, in which Toss (J Q) was also one of the top considerations. But can it help us here? Both Toss (2 3) and Toss (J Q) only allow us a Maximum Hand of Ten Points; and yet we KNOW which Crib should do better! The problem today is that Pone is easily within Ten Holes of attaining Hole 96, the Fourth Street 'par' hole, and so while we are the Current Dealer, we are in trouble due to our Relative Position: Big Trouble! Therefore, I believe we might need to consider Toss (J Q) as opposed to using the Old Standby of Toss (2 3) today. We're in trouble, and this might give us the inclination to Toss (J Q). But at Hole 81, we still may have room to "negotiate" our way forward. When we are on the 'wrong end' of a positional struggle, it can often be tempting to deviate from what we otherwise know to be solid logic. But it is during these moments in which we must sometimes not deviate from optimum play! Because the real question here today is probably this: Can the Keep (A 2 3 4) Hand somehow allow us to peg the additional amount of the known difference between Toss (2 3) minus the lower value of the Toss (J Q) Crib? And at best, it's unclear that it can. In My Not-so-Humble Opinion ... It's usually better in these instances to stick to the "Tried and True" strategy and perhaps "lose by fewer points" than it is to 'stumble' and then lose by even more, in an attempt to 'pull some magic' out of thin air. Therefore, I'm in the Toss (2 3) camp today. But this is clearly a strategy or an attempt to probably "Lose by Less" rather than to 'Pull a WIN' out of thin air. Kudos to those who might attempt to actually WIN this thing after Toss (J Q): you have my respect, and I shall cheer you onward! But you're playing with GUTS, and I'm playing with probabilities, and so I wish you luck, because you'll probably need it! Even after seeing the Cut, I wish I could now say which Discard Decision was better: I cannot! horus93 says: Why try to peg *forward*? Do you think you can make up a 15 point deficit from third street? It's clearly better to play defense.
Would you play offense at 106*-114, too? The relative position there is identical to here. horus93 says: The idea should be for the scores to go something like 81*-89, 95-96*, 103*-109, 113-115*. See what I mean? Keep opponent a few points short of his averages over several deals and you might win. JQT says: Do I think I can? Most likely not! But I like to be open to the possibility of it. Every game or two, one player will very often be fortunate enough to move AN ENTIRE STREET as the Dealer! All it takes is say Half-a-Dozen Pegging, plus a Ten- or Twelve-Point Hand, followed by a Ten-or Twelve-Point Crib! If it happens here, we can "jump ahead a FULL CYCLE" and maybe be on track to go out Next Deal! Of course, we should never depend upon this, but we should also be OPEN to it, because it occurs fairly regularly. And today, both our Hand as well as our potential Crib (along with the Cut) are looking pretty good. Ras2829 says: If playing defense, goal should be to limit n/d to no more than 5 points since 4th street CPZ is 95-99. What are chances of that? That's 1/9.5 according to DeLynn Colvert in "Play Winning Cribbage". |
Goatman 2502 votes Joined: March 2017 |
    Thursday 3:04 AM
Like the power of the 2, 3 to my crib. |
james500 3923 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Thursday 3:33 AM
I seem to remember reading on here that if one, (or both), of the X cards is a Jack, then it's better to keep A-2-3-4 and discard X-X.
I may be mistaken in that belief however, so I'll also stick with the "tried and tested" A-4-X-X (2-3). Nice cut whichever of those two options you choose. |
dec 6358 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Thursday 4:14 AM
Yes 2-3 in this particular situation. Like to see low cards or even faces involved between the cut and their discard. Prayers on offense. |
Andy (muesli64) 2223 votes Joined: August 2009 |
    Thursday 4:42 AM
Yes 2 - 3. Pays to follow the 'rules'. |
RubyTuesday 914 votes Joined: January 2019 |
    Thursday 4:56 AM
I wasn’t following a rule but seem to have managed to get it right! |
zeke76 1396 votes Joined: August 2018 |
    Thursday 4:59 AM
Hey I’ve learned something! I would not have played it this way before frequenting this site. scottcrib says: Same here zeke76. RubyTuesday says: and me! |
DoctorWitty 686 votes Joined: January 2017 |
    Thursday 5:05 AM
The thing is, if I keep the run and cut an A or a 4, my hand is going up to 10 points. But with A-4-J-Q this is still true! Also if I cut a 2 or a 3, I don't get the run, but then there's a fair chance that I will get at 6 points least in my box, and I've got 4 in my hand already so there's the 10 points again already. scottcrib says: Excellent insight! |
Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Thursday 5:49 AM
Nothing but 2-3 for my crib today. |
Gougie00 5730 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Thursday 5:49 AM
Another roasted chestnut. Would have been more interesting if there was a flush to consider. |
glmccuskey 4101 votes Joined: April 2011 |
    Thursday 5:56 AM
This is a good pegger against face cards and fives. Put the four on a face card lead and then run your 3-2-A at the end. |
Jazzselke 2586 votes Joined: March 2009 |
    Thursday 7:25 AM
Like what DoctorWitty says. Don't think the possible pegging value of A234 makes up for the crib difference of JQ vs 23. |
joekayak 1873 votes Joined: May 2016 |
    Thursday 11:36 AM
I'm in good shape position wise. Must play DEF DEF to try to keep opponent below 95. (Not likely but must try). Keep best defensive pegging hand. Keep wide is generally best. Throw 2-3 for DEF reasons. joekayak says: I believe that absent other factors, we have gone over this combo before A-2-3-4-X-X. If X-X=J-10 or J-Q (touchies), then 2-3 is the correct throw to maximize hand and crib points. So, it seems to me that 2-3 is correct here for both OFF and DEF reasons?? |
Coeurdelion 5595 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Thursday 12:25 PM
Mick Michaelis demonstrated that from A-2-3-4-X-X for Dealer often the correct discard is 2-3. But Ras has shown that A-2-3-4 pegs very well and if the X-X is close then it is the correct discard:
A-4-J-Q: 4pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10¾pts A-2-3-4: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 8¾pts Potential: A-4-J-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/9/10pts with all cuts. Plus 11 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt. A-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts. Position: We're 11pts past positional hole and Pone is 3pts past where they need to be. So I'll play Defense. Pegging: A-2-3-4 will peg better. Summary: A-4-J-Q has a starting value 2pts better but A-2-3-4 has guaranteed improvement and 38 cuts for 7-10pts. Also it should peg much better. Will this make up the 2pts? I think it will. So I'll throw J-Q. |
HalscribCLX 5318 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Thursday 12:28 PM
At 81*-89 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Our Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W2 %___W3 % A-2-3-4___8.09+3.80+4.77=16.66____1.3____15.7 A-4-J-Q___6.76+2.43+6.45=15.64____1.5____12.5 Offense_______L2 %____L3 % A-2-3-4_______19.7____70.4 A-4-J-Q_______15.1____64.3 A-2-3-4 is better for expected averages by 1.02pts and is appreciably better for Win %s although A-4-J-Q is much lower for Loss %s. Even so I'll select J-Q to discard. After the 10D cut I'll play Offense to the lead. joekayak says: At 81 and dealing, we are approx. +10. At 89 and pone, opponent is approx. +4. Aren't I playing DEFENSE here? I like my score and want to try and hold back opponent???? Ras2829 says: Hi joekayak: If playing a defense strategy, nedd to limit opponent to five points. What are chances of doing that? That's 1/9.5. Odds are better to choose offense and move on down the board. |
JCM 910 votes Joined: April 2019 |
    Thursday 2:42 PM
When I'm dealer in hands of the shape A-2-3-4-X-X; I've always favoured (2 3) discard, keeping A-4-X-X.
We would like to get a large combined hand/peg/crib total, to improve our relative position. After the cut, with 10 pts in hand, an average of 7 pts in crib and a few pegging pts, we may reach 20+ pts in total, bringing us to 101+ as pone next hand. Opp may arrive at 99 as dealer next hand. Our challenge then is to try to get 20 or (maybe less pts required) as pone, counting hand and pegging. Even if we get, say, only 15 pts, we may still win by pegging out as dealer in the following hand. Have to peg cautiously so as not to help Opp too much. Having said all that - it looks like Halscrib/Coeurdelion disagree with me. Such is life - some days you shouldn't get out of bed. |
Ras2829 5154 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Thursday 4:05 PM
Choice of strategy is key to this puzzle. Dealer has about 1/6.5 chances to win if choosing offense. If choosing defense, need to limit n/d to five points (4th street CPZ is 95-99). What are chances of doing so? That's 1/9.5! So it's off., off., off., play on the lead. Moving down the boards is of greater value to dealer in this situation than limiting n/d progress. This hand works this way if choosing offense because of the fine pegging potential of four cards under five in value and a discard that includes the Jack (10-J, J-Q, or J-K). Any other X-point combination does not work; in situations calling for offense. Discard the 2-3 if your X-point discards are 10-Q, 10-K, or Q-K. If choosing a defense strategy, the 2-3 discard is correct. Choice of strategy should determine what you retain/discard. Ras2829 says: Appreciate the quality of many posts this date, though some do not agree with my assessment. |