Monday 3:07 AM

2 3 5 6 7 Faces add to hand. Pegging might be able to peg the twos. Certain points, no hunches. dec

   

Monday 3:15 AM

Starting with 4 points in the hand and 2 points in the crib today. Lots of choices: 5-8, 5-T, A-T. Hand has a maximum of 14 points.

   

Monday 3:17 AM

We have two choices with similar potential, so it's between Toss (5 8) and Toss (A T).

Pone needs 13 holes to WIN and has First Hand Show, so we wish to peg very carefully. I think this is easier after Toss (5 8) but it's a very close call.

The Jack Cut almost certainly assures that we shall have enough points to 'cover the distance' as long as we get to show our Hand and Crib.

Be observant of how Pone's cards might interact with that Jack Cut, and peg defensively, avoiding any traps, etc. We should prevail here more often than not.

   

Monday 4:02 AM

Thirteen points is a tough ask for Pone, and I don't intend to help them. Hide the 5 in my box and then play defensively.

Nice cut.

   

Monday 4:08 AM

I kept the hand I felt happiest pegging with, hoping I don’t give pone inadvertent extra points.

   

Monday 5:56 AM

I am thinking the 5 might be a liability, so I'll put it in the crib. This game may be heading for another deal, and I think a stout defense is the best strategy here.

December 1, and Northern Massachusetts got a foot of "Heart Attack" S, now. I shoveled out my daughter's car. I need to figure out how to get out the other one and where to put it after I do.

   

Monday 6:12 AM

6 in the hand and crib to start with; hoping for a 2 or 3 cut, but I'll take anything but a 6 or 9.

   

Monday 7:10 AM

Clearly a defensive position (+9/-3) but I don't think there will be enough pegging difference between 2-2-5-8, a-2-2-T and a-2-2-8 to justify not doing it this way which has the best hand+crib expected average by a third of a point.

   

Monday 7:14 AM

Have to avoid runs, so 2258 has more separation, dump a 2 or the 5 on the first play.

   

Monday 7:24 AM

Between the pegging and the crib we just need to find another 4 holes in addition to the dealer's guarantee.

   

Monday 7:47 AM

Want the 5 in my crib

   

Monday 9:56 AM

A bit of a gamble.

   

Monday 10:26 AM

Every card working for me and a nickel in the crib.

   

Monday 11:34 AM

Whatever we choose to discard, we must peg cautiously, since Opp is only 13 pts away from finishing and has 1st count.

Not sure, but maybe (5 8) discard is best.

Take only safe pairs and runs(where Opp can't add to them)

   

Monday 11:46 AM

Keep the A-2-2 together. Hide the 5 in the crib. DEF DEF

   

Monday 12:58 PM

Need to limit non-dealer to nor more than 12 points What are chances? It's 3 to 1 favoring dealer of doing so. At the first look at these six cards relative to position, it's def., after seeing the starter card it's def., beginning the pegging strategy it's def. Will hold the 2-2 intact if possible. If cards fell right, just might get them in back to back. On an Ace lead will play a deuce, would pair a deuce lead, if trey led, will play the Ace, on a four lead would play a deuce, if 5 lead will make the count 7, on a 6-7 lead, will play the 10 spot. On an 8/9 lead will play a deuce. On a X-lead will play the Ace. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Very important that dealer have pegging plan in mind prior to actual pegging sequence; then follow the plan and avoid hunches. Holding A-2-2-X is the way to go if choosing defense. Small edge on negative pegs (those scored by non-dealer) and a much larger crib potential push the A-2-2-X hold to the fore. Holding 2-2-5-8 or A-2-2-X is an absolute push if choosing offense. Take your pick then.

   

Tuesday 2:20 AM

At 105*-108 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W1 %____W2 %
A-2-2-10__6.57+(-2.33)+5.36=9.60____27.5____63.3
2-2-5-8___8.22+(-2.30)+3.25=9.17____26.5____64.4
A-2-2-8___4.83+(-2.39)+6.72=9.16____25.0____61.5

Defense______L1 %____L2 %
A-2-2-10_____25.9____27.2
2-2-5-8______24.9____26.5
A-2-2-8______26.6____29.3

A-2-2-10 is best for expected averages by 0.43pt but although 2-2-5-8 is approximately equal for Win %s it is slightly lower for Loss %s. So as it is nearing the end of the game I'll decide based on Loss %s and select A-10 to discard.

After the J cut I'll play Defense to the lead.