December 2, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by cribbagepogo
105*-108  ?
39%
39%
38%
38%
16%
16%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 183
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6866 votes)

Monday 3:07 AM
2 3 5 6 7 Faces add to hand. Pegging might be able to peg the twos. Certain points, no hunches. dec
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2249 votes)

Monday 3:15 AM
Starting with 4 points in the hand and 2 points in the crib today. Lots of choices: 5-8, 5-T, A-T. Hand has a maximum of 14 points.
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4525 votes)

Monday 3:17 AM
We have two choices with similar potential, so it's between Toss (5 8) and Toss (A T).

Pone needs 13 holes to WIN and has First Hand Show, so we wish to peg very carefully. I think this is easier after Toss (5 8) but it's a very close call.

The Jack Cut almost certainly assures that we shall have enough points to 'cover the distance' as long as we get to show our Hand and Crib.

Be observant of how Pone's cards might interact with that Jack Cut, and peg defensively, avoiding any traps, etc. We should prevail here more often than not.
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4354 votes)

Monday 4:02 AM
Thirteen points is a tough ask for Pone, and I don't intend to help them. Hide the 5 in my box and then play defensively.

Nice cut.
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1196 votes)

Monday 4:08 AM
I kept the hand I felt happiest pegging with, hoping I don’t give pone inadvertent extra points.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6180 votes)

Monday 5:56 AM
I am thinking the 5 might be a liability, so I'll put it in the crib. This game may be heading for another deal, and I think a stout defense is the best strategy here.

December 1, and Northern Massachusetts got a foot of "Heart Attack" S, now. I shoveled out my daughter's car. I need to figure out how to get out the other one and where to put it after I do.
Gougie00 says: December 1 into December 2. Guessing it will all melt by Friday.
scottcrib

Joined: August 2019 (2079 votes)

Monday 6:12 AM
6 in the hand and crib to start with; hoping for a 2 or 3 cut, but I'll take anything but a 6 or 9.
horus93

Joined: December 2017 (1330 votes)

Monday 7:10 AM
Clearly a defensive position (+9/-3) but I don't think there will be enough pegging difference between 2-2-5-8, a-2-2-T and a-2-2-8 to justify not doing it this way which has the best hand+crib expected average by a third of a point.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2870 votes)

Monday 7:14 AM
Have to avoid runs, so 2258 has more separation, dump a 2 or the 5 on the first play.
JRCeagle78

Joined: June 2016 (1054 votes)

Monday 7:24 AM
Between the pegging and the crib we just need to find another 4 holes in addition to the dealer's guarantee.
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3397 votes)

Monday 7:47 AM
Want the 5 in my crib
Andy (muesli64)

Joined: August 2009 (2343 votes)

Monday 9:56 AM
A bit of a gamble.
bbaer1

Joined: February 2011 (3824 votes)

Monday 10:26 AM
Every card working for me and a nickel in the crib.
JCM

Joined: April 2019 (910 votes)

Monday 11:34 AM
Whatever we choose to discard, we must peg cautiously, since Opp is only 13 pts away from finishing and has 1st count.

Not sure, but maybe (5 8) discard is best.

Take only safe pairs and runs(where Opp can't add to them)
joekayak

Joined: May 2016 (1877 votes)

Monday 11:46 AM
Keep the A-2-2 together. Hide the 5 in the crib. DEF DEF
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Monday 12:58 PM
Need to limit non-dealer to nor more than 12 points What are chances? It's 3 to 1 favoring dealer of doing so. At the first look at these six cards relative to position, it's def., after seeing the starter card it's def., beginning the pegging strategy it's def. Will hold the 2-2 intact if possible. If cards fell right, just might get them in back to back. On an Ace lead will play a deuce, would pair a deuce lead, if trey led, will play the Ace, on a four lead would play a deuce, if 5 lead will make the count 7, on a 6-7 lead, will play the 10 spot. On an 8/9 lead will play a deuce. On a X-lead will play the Ace. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Very important that dealer have pegging plan in mind prior to actual pegging sequence; then follow the plan and avoid hunches. Holding A-2-2-X is the way to go if choosing defense. Small edge on negative pegs (those scored by non-dealer) and a much larger crib potential push the A-2-2-X hold to the fore. Holding 2-2-5-8 or A-2-2-X is an absolute push if choosing offense. Take your pick then.
Hillchem says: Thanks for the pegging advice. Let's say pone plays an A, and you respond with a 2. If pone plays a 3 for a run, do you get into the pegging or do you play the 10 as an escape card?
Gougie00 says: The idea is not peg at all. But if the opponent is leading an Ace and has a 3, what are the other 2 cards?
Ras2829 says: Hi HIllchem: Seldom will n/d lead an Ace if holding smaller cards above that. That's especially true if holding 2-3. Would lead the trey. Sometimes will lead an Ace if holding A-4-4-X which as dealer am not worried about my deuce. In other cases will lead an Ace when holding A-5-5-9 and cagey players will lead an Ace when holding A-6-7-8. If holding a three card run similar to 8-9-10 with an Ace, often will lead the Ace in order to hold the cards of sequence together. The hands that would hurt dealer when playing the deuce on an Ace lead would be A-A-A-3 or A-A-2-3. That would be quite unusual with me holding A-2-2; so I just play the percentages. About two times in 100 n/d would have such a hand with two or more Aces and lead from them. The other 98 times will go my way and the count will remain low enough that n/d cannot score 15-2 as a result of my play. So my play works a high percentage and saves me many 15-2's per 100 times played.
Ras2829 says: Ah yes! That 10 spot is my escape cards so would play if needing to escape and want to hold it as long as possible for that purpose.
Hillchem says: Thanks so much!
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5711 votes)

Tuesday 2:20 AM
At 105*-108 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W1 %____W2 %
A-2-2-10__6.57+(-2.33)+5.36=9.60____27.5____63.3
2-2-5-8___8.22+(-2.30)+3.25=9.17____26.5____64.4
A-2-2-8___4.83+(-2.39)+6.72=9.16____25.0____61.5

Defense______L1 %____L2 %
A-2-2-10_____25.9____27.2
2-2-5-8______24.9____26.5
A-2-2-8______26.6____29.3

A-2-2-10 is best for expected averages by 0.43pt but although 2-2-5-8 is approximately equal for Win %s it is slightly lower for Loss %s. So as it is nearing the end of the game I'll decide based on Loss %s and select A-10 to discard.

After the J cut I'll play Defense to the lead.