December 1, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by horus93
45*-50  ?
59%
12%
9%
7%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 164

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Rosemarie44
1425 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 3:15 AM
Start with 6 plus 2 points, more cuts for improvement at a higher maximum.
dec
4705 votes

Joined: April 2008

Sunday 4:17 AM
How to try to attain that sixteen average of dealer here. Instead of the 5-5 possibility more cuts available spread out both hands and the pegging may net some more also. dec
RubyTuesday
266 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Sunday 4:38 AM
I looked at this and looked again, then decided I wasn’t a good enough player to see anything better than the obvious 6 9 discard so that’s what I went with.
zeke76
431 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Sunday 4:48 AM
Couldn’t see breaking up the pair to put 5T in the crib.
Jazzselke
1349 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Sunday 5:02 AM
Agree with Zeke above.
james500
2332 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 6:17 AM
Chosen the "conventional" 6-9. 5-6 is tempting though.
Andy (muesli64)
1633 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Sunday 6:37 AM
Save the little grey cells for tomorrow's problem!!
JQT
2660 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 7:34 AM
Fives and Tens tend to generate similar amounts of help regardless of their location when we are the Dealer.

And yet while Toss (5 5) does too much damage to our Hand, I think that Toss (6 9) is not quite as strong overall as Toss (5 T) today.

So, let's try the suited Toss (5 T) on for size: it's the New Solution for a New Month.
horus93
590 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Sunday 8:07 AM
I'd rather keep 5-6 in hand in this offensive position (+1/-10).
Gougie00
4101 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 10:07 AM
6-9 and peg aggressively.
Ras2829
3561 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 10:09 AM
If choosing an offense or optimal strategy, hold the "sweet 16" (1-6-9) and the two card "eleven from heaven" either of which have high percentage return in dealer hand. It's off. off. off. for me and play on the lead although would not pair a five if led. JQT provides fine insight as to how these cards will work often in actual pegging sequences. Because of the pegging values and the 5-10 discard to crib, combined values based on my scant empirical evidence is nearly .5 (pegs, hand and crib values).
JCM
322 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Sunday 10:12 AM
I agree with JQT. Pegging prospects look good.
Coeurdelion
4023 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 12:59 PM
I think it's between A-5-5-10 (6-9) and A-5-6-9 (5D-10):

A-5-5-10: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 11¼pts

A-5-6-9: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 10½pts

Potential:

A-5-5-10: Improves with AAA, 4444, 55, 999 + 15xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 10/12/14pts with 4444, 55, 999 + 15xXs = 24 cuts.

A-5-6-9: Improves with AAA, 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 999 = 19 cuts.

Position:

We are 1pt past positional hole and Pone is 10pts short of where they would like to be so I'll play Defense to consolidate our positional advantage.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think A-5-6-9 will peg better.

Summary:

A-5-5-10 has a starting value ¾pt more but A-5-6-9 has more cuts for improvement although A-5-5-10 has a better maximum with 24 cuts for 10-14pts. A-5-6-9 should also peg better so I'll throw the suited 5-10.
joekayak
935 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Sunday 1:01 PM
As much as I'd like to keep 5-5-6 together, With us in the CPZ, I think I'll go for keeping the most points between hand and crib.
HalscribCLX
3798 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 1:04 PM
At 45*-50 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
A-5H-6-9__6.78+3.72+6.50=17.00____18.7____43.5
A-5-5-10__8.52+2.96+4.95=16.43____19.0____43.5

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %
A-5H-6-9______17.7____33.0
A-5-5-10______16.9____32.3

A-5-6-9 is better for expected averages by 0.57pt however A-5-5-10 is better for Win %s and Loss %s. Even so as it's early in the game I'll decide on expected averages and discard 5D-10.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.