December 1, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by horus93
45*-50  ?
59%
12%
9%
7%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 164
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:15 AM
Start with 6 plus 2 points, more cuts for improvement at a higher maximum.
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
Sunday 4:17 AM
How to try to attain that sixteen average of dealer here. Instead of the 5-5 possibility more cuts available spread out both hands and the pegging may net some more also. dec
RubyTuesday
915 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Sunday 4:38 AM
I looked at this and looked again, then decided I wasn’t a good enough player to see anything better than the obvious 6 9 discard so that’s what I went with.
zeke76
1397 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Sunday 4:48 AM
Couldn’t see breaking up the pair to put 5T in the crib.
Jazzselke
2587 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 5:02 AM
Agree with Zeke above.
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 6:17 AM
Chosen the "conventional" 6-9. 5-6 is tempting though.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 6:37 AM
Save the little grey cells for tomorrow's problem!!
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 7:34 AM
Fives and Tens tend to generate similar amounts of help regardless of their location when we are the Dealer.

And yet while Toss (5 5) does too much damage to our Hand, I think that Toss (6 9) is not quite as strong overall as Toss (5 T) today.

So, let's try the suited Toss (5 T) on for size: it's the New Solution for a New Month.
JQT says: We have *at least* three interesting pegging sequences that could transpire against a Pone who holds the ubiquitous 'Nickel and Dimes' (or just 'Dimes') hand today: We might try employing our two-card "Magic Eleven" (5-6) to obtain both the immediate (15=2), immediately followed by (31=2), which works best against an all-Ten-Cards Hand (or "X"); or, we might use the three-card "Sweet Sixteen" (A-6-9) such that after a Ten Card Lead, we *first* play the Ace, which often forces Pone to "dump" a 5 Card, after which we play the 9 Card, and often obtain a "go," and then play the 6 Card for (31=2); lastly, if this were a *defensive* position (which I don't think it is, but I shall include this just for the sake of comprehensiveness), we could follow a Ten Card Lead with our 6 Card, and then, after the frequently-seen second Ten Card play by Pone, we 'snag' the safe-and-easy (31=2) with our 5 Card. This all serves to say that Keep (A 5 6 9) is a very flexible pegging hand, indeed!
JQT says: Toss (5 6) would almost certainly be as good or better a discard as Toss (5 T), but the former leaves us with Keep (A 5 6 9), a vastly superior pegging hand for us as the Dealer today. Meanwhile, Toss (6 9) would not only 'stick us' with a weaker Crib Value than *either* of the aforementioned discard ideas, but it would also definitely leave us with an inferior pegging hand of Keep (A 5 5 T). Thus, I believe that the initial 'static' differential between the probable six points as opposed to eight points shall likely be 'made up for' in its entirety (and perhaps then some!) by choosing Toss (5 T) here.
JQT says: Minor Correction: My second reply above should begin with "but the LATTER (not the former...) leaves us with Keep (A 5 6 9)", etc.
horus93
1282 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Sunday 8:07 AM
I'd rather keep 5-6 in hand in this offensive position (+1/-10).
horus93 says: Per Liam the average for this is only .1 below tossing 6-9 and I think it'll outpeg a-5-5-t by more than that
Ras2829 says: Hi horus93: Thanks for the fine puzzle this day. Keep 'em coming!
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 10:07 AM
6-9 and peg aggressively.
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 10:09 AM
If choosing an offense or optimal strategy, hold the "sweet 16" (1-6-9) and the two card "eleven from heaven" either of which have high percentage return in dealer hand. It's off. off. off. for me and play on the lead although would not pair a five if led. JQT provides fine insight as to how these cards will work often in actual pegging sequences. Because of the pegging values and the 5-10 discard to crib, combined values based on my scant empirical evidence is nearly .5 (pegs, hand and crib values).
Ras2829 says: Sorry - following .5 above should be "greater than retaining A-5-5-10."
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Sunday 10:12 AM
I agree with JQT. Pegging prospects look good.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 12:59 PM
I think it's between A-5-5-10 (6-9) and A-5-6-9 (5D-10):

A-5-5-10: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 11¼pts

A-5-6-9: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 10½pts

Potential:

A-5-5-10: Improves with AAA, 4444, 55, 999 + 15xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 10/12/14pts with 4444, 55, 999 + 15xXs = 24 cuts.

A-5-6-9: Improves with AAA, 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 999 = 19 cuts.

Position:

We are 1pt past positional hole and Pone is 10pts short of where they would like to be so I'll play Defense to consolidate our positional advantage.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think A-5-6-9 will peg better.

Summary:

A-5-5-10 has a starting value ¾pt more but A-5-6-9 has more cuts for improvement although A-5-5-10 has a better maximum with 24 cuts for 10-14pts. A-5-6-9 should also peg better so I'll throw the suited 5-10.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 1:01 PM
As much as I'd like to keep 5-5-6 together, With us in the CPZ, I think I'll go for keeping the most points between hand and crib.
joekayak says: Oops. Thought I selected 9-6 to crib. Keeping A-5-5-10 in hand.
joekayak says: Oops. Thought I selected 9-6 to crib. Keeping A-5-5-10 in hand.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 1:04 PM
At 45*-50 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
A-5H-6-9__6.78+3.72+6.50=17.00____18.7____43.5
A-5-5-10__8.52+2.96+4.95=16.43____19.0____43.5

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %
A-5H-6-9______17.7____33.0
A-5-5-10______16.9____32.3

A-5-6-9 is better for expected averages by 0.57pt however A-5-5-10 is better for Win %s and Loss %s. Even so as it's early in the game I'll decide on expected averages and discard 5D-10.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
JQT says: Note that the 9 Card Cut *still* helps out our 6-9 duo, only the help occurs in our Hand as opposed to our Crib; meanwhile, Toss (5 T) is much more likely to 'find' help from Pone's Discard. Regarding the Pegging: Against a Ten Card (or "X") Lead, of the three pegging 'themes' that I outlined earlier (beneath my entry, above), I think it's probably best if we attempt to employ the three-card "Sweet Sixteen" and thus reply with our Ace. The most popular Pone Hand Construct of (5 X X X) will now usually allow us to *safely* play to a Count of Twenty-Five, and hopefully get that "go," which then allows us to 'nab' the (31=2). And then, against perhaps another Ten Card (X) Lead, maybe we could even peg an additional (15=2) during the final volley of pegging. That's a great amount of *defensive* pegging, if we can pull it off! Of course, after the 9 Card Cut, Pone holding a 6 Card would likely lead it, and this might encourage us to grab the early (15=2), because even though we are in a *defensive* mode, we should not ignore the reduced odds that Pone would also be holding a 9 Card. Nice Puzzle, horus93!