Saturday 3:20 AM

Defence. K-6/8/10 are in my thinking, rather than keeping four points with A-6/8 across the board.

Ace lead.

   

Saturday 3:30 AM

Every cut increases the value of this hand and the balking T-K goes to dealer.

   

Saturday 3:35 AM

Positions the thing here so voting for a big minimal non cut for them. Will let the pegging get a couple more if possible that they are held stagnent also. So lead the ace and do the off off on the pegging. dec

   

Saturday 4:33 AM

Yes, defence.

   

Saturday 5:05 AM

The Dealer is right on the cusp of achieving POSITION, yet maybe we can 'turn the tables' if we squeeze every possible point out of this deal after a slightly more risky discard.

   

Saturday 5:32 AM

Got to shutdown the dealer. With that three cut giving me four points I’ll lead the eight only take pegs if they seem safe.

   

Saturday 5:32 AM

DEF DEF DEF. What better than K-10 to dealer crib?

   

Saturday 5:48 AM

D-Fence and Go Blue.

   

Saturday 5:55 AM

I went for the stifle as well.

   

Saturday 7:23 AM

I kept more points in hand by throwing A8 to dealer’s crib than I gave to dealer (as long as I’ve done my maths right).

   

Saturday 10:38 AM

I'm for (K 10) keeping A-5-6-8. We only need 4 pts this hand to hit 96 pts as dealer next hand. May as well slow Opp as much as possible.

   

Saturday 2:55 PM

Needing to deal from 4th Street CPZ (95-99, need minimum of 3 points out of this hand. Holding A-5-6-8 assures minimum of four as any cut increases hand value. Playing def., def., def. the 10-K 3,848 (3,884) 1/91 scores two or less 45.494% and scores 12 or more 2.111%. That 10-K is more than 20 times likely to score 0-2 that it is to score `12 or more. It's by far the best balking discard in cribbage. If you don't like the 10-K and you have the cards to do so, make it the 9-Q. Why might 9-Q score more cribs of 0-2 than 9-K? Will lead the Ace as want to be rid of the only small card in this hand. The Ace and five are the two most dangerous cards in this hand and want to drop the 5 second card played if looks reasonably safe. For those making the A-8 choice, it's a long ways down the list even when holding a six spot, The A-8 4,843 (1,456)40/91, scores two or less 27.266% and tallies 12 or more 5.082%. In hands of four points, discarding the 10-K to retain two points is often preferable to holding four points. Look for the opportunity to do so. and you'll be pleasantly surprised at how many times you can turn a game around with a zero crib. Sometime when you have an hour, pull three cards at random from a deck and put them with 10-K on the table. You'll be amazed at how many zero cribs you'll count per 100 selections. True not exactly the same as would be in live play although the deck of 52 is a great leveler.

   

Saturday 4:33 PM

Do we keep the 4pts with 5-6-10-K (A-8) or throw the defensive 10-K?:

5-6-10-K: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.85) = -¾pt

A-5-6-8: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = -2pts

Potential:

5-6-10-K: Improves with 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/9/10pts with 4444, 555, 7777, 101010, KKK = 17 cuts.

A-5-6-8: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 6/7pts with AAA, 4444, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 = 21 cuts.

Position:

We only need 4pts to reach positional hole at 96pts but Dealer is already nearly there. If they score the average 16pts they will be at 110pts needing slightly above average at 11pts to get out. If I play too defensively then as Pone in two deals time (if I get the chance) I may not be in a position to score enough in two deals time.

Pegging:

Playing cautiously I think both hands will peg quite well but I think A-5-6-8 will be more flexible.

Summary:

5-6-10-K has a starting value 1¼pts more than A-5-6-8 but A-5-6-8 has guaranteed improvement and 21 cuts for 6/7pts which is a tremendous improvement on 2pts. 5-6-10-K has 17 cuts for 7-10pts and the 4pts will ensure we exceed the positional hole while 7-10pts will tahe us a good way past. On balance I think I'll throw the A-8.

   

Saturday 4:55 PM

At 92-94* playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Net
Optimal___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W1 %____W2 %
5-6-10-K__6.26+(-1.04)+(-4.51)=0.71____21.0____47.9
A-5-6-8___5.30+(-1.43)+(-3.78)=0.09____16.1____43.6

Optimal______L1 %____L2 %
5-6-10-K_____34.3____42.1
A-5-6-8______35.4____47.5

5-6-10-K is better for expected averages by 0.62pt and is significantly better for both Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select A-8 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 5 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead____________Net Pegging Pts._____Loss %
K___________________(-0.55)___________0.2
10__________________(-0.58)___________0.2
6___________________(-1.83)___________0.3
5___________________(-1.84)___________0.0

Although the K lead is lowest for Net Pegging Points the 5 lead is lowest for Loss %s.

   

Saturday 11:57 PM

Looks like Ras, James, Rosemarie, Dec and some others all joined me in choosing the wrong discard :-)