November 29, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
114-116*  ?
92%
2%
2%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 174
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 3:06 AM
I believe this is the best hold and discard for this hand at today's position.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Friday 3:20 AM
Need to hold the 5 points, then hope for the cut and pegging to go our way. Do not have the luxury of holding only pegging cards.
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:23 AM
Only seven cards do not add points. They would either need a non cut for our hand or peg five points. Play defense now and guess the best how they could only peg four at best. dec
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Friday 3:50 AM
What else?
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Friday 4:25 AM
What's the catch? We need to worry about dealerr pegging out but this keep is the most likely to ensure that we don't need pegs and can focus on defense. It's not exactly easy to peg 5 anyway.
horus93 says: And I'd be inclined to lead the ten just because it has the fewest losers.
Andy (muesli64) says: The lead is the difficulty
james500 says: Is Dealer too far along at 116 for us to lead the 5?
horus93 says: But that leaves us with three bunched cards
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Friday 5:31 AM
I ran into difficulty with the 10 lead. I now wonder if 3 5 10 K is a better keep.
zeke76 says: Interesting. The hand gets you out, but can it survive the pegging.
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
Friday 7:26 AM
K-3 too. Only the cut of a 3 or 4 is unhelpful, so we shouldn't need to peg anything.

With Dealer at 116, can we "get away with" leading the 5?
zeke76
1395 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Friday 7:47 AM
I’d lead the 10, but James’ idea of a 5 lead is intriguing in a counterintuitive way.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 8:05 AM
Fewest number of cards (six) can score upon Ten Card Lead.
cribbagepogo
3251 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 9:21 AM
So, what if I lead the 9. Dlr may get 5 for two with 6. Play 10 and hope dlr runs out of cards or do we not want to give a chance. Aces here can kill you.
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 10:53 AM
I'll hold it this way. I don't need any points, so I'll lead the 9, and try to ditch the 5
Ras2829
5153 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 11:10 AM
RAS just plays the numbers. Although I like breaking the sequence with the lead of the 9, fewer cards remain to score on the 10 lead. There are 7 cards which will score on either the 8 or9 lead. As JQT and horus93 point out there are six cards which will score on a X-lead and there is the dealer preferences when needing pegs to hold cards of less than 10 in value. Hope you found lots of reasons to be thankful in this special season. The President per usual pardoned a turkey. What we did to the turkey showed no sign of a pardon. "Pardon me and pass the turkey!"
Ras2829 says: That bird didn't have a chance!
Ras2829 says: BTW with dealer needing five pegs to win, avoiding two peg points on opening lead is major. Very difficult for dealer to get five pegs without picking off two on lead. So that also encourages the lead of the 10 spot.
RubyTuesday
913 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Friday 3:27 PM
I’ve gone for the same discard as the rest of you for the same reasons.
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 3:58 PM
I'll keep 5-8-9-10 and lead the 10.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 4:02 PM
At 114-116* playing a Bold strategy for the pegging the Win %s are:

Bold______Dlr Peg Out %____Pone Peg Dot %____Win %s
5-8-9-10_____2.7_______________0.9____________94.3
5-9-10-K_____1.9_______________0.1____________83.3
5-8-10-K_____0.9_______________0.8____________81.4
3-5-10-K_____1.2_______________0.4____________80.8

5-8-9-10 has the highest chance pf Dealer pegging out but the chances of Winning are very much best so I'll still select 3-K to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead the 10 and play Defense:

Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Pts.______Win %
8___________________(-2.40)______________77.2
5___________________(-2.58)______________76.0
10__________________(-2.61)______________81.6
5___________________(-2.76)______________74.8

Although the 8 lead pegs the least for Dealer the 10 lead has the best chance of Winning so I'll lead the 10.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Friday 6:05 PM
6-game-match. Bad crib day for me. Won only 1 of 6 games(though I got to 120 in 1 of my losses.) 663/726, far out of top 3.
At least I wasn't skunked. But my averages decline a bit.

Since 1 Aug:

Played 84 games now, winning 57 of them: 67.9%

Played in 15 Fridays, placing in top three in 7 of them: 46.7%

Still not bad overall - just a bad day today. Never saw so many 2-pt hands and cribs for a long time!

We'll see what December brings.
JCM says: In my 5 losses, I averaged being around 12 pts away from the finish when opp won. Not so bad when you look at it that way, I guess. - The pegging was the one bright spot - I did pretty well on that - I think that was the thing that brought me over the skunk line with all those 2-pt hands and cribs. - I did take a chance one time when I needed pts- I led a 10 and she played a 7. I had a 7 and, needing pts to count out before she did, I paired it. Sure enough - she had the 3rd 7 for 8 pts. That was the game that finished 120-121*. Except for that 1 instance, the pegging went well - was pegging between 4-7 pts most hands. It was just the dismal 6 cards I kept getting. Such is life.
JCM says: Not that anyone will read this, but that 84 games played up to now(which I stated above) should read 90 games played until now. All the other figures are correct(checked!) except the 90 game figure lowers my game-win rate to 57/90 = 63.3%, not the 67.9% I mentioned above. Looks like in December I will pass the "100 games played mark".