November 29, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
114-116*  ?
92%
2%
2%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 174

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Rosemarie44
1425 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Friday 3:06 AM
I believe this is the best hold and discard for this hand at today's position.
Jazzselke
1349 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Friday 3:20 AM
Need to hold the 5 points, then hope for the cut and pegging to go our way. Do not have the luxury of holding only pegging cards.
dec
4705 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 3:23 AM
Only seven cards do not add points. They would either need a non cut for our hand or peg five points. Play defense now and guess the best how they could only peg four at best. dec
joekayak
935 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Friday 3:50 AM
What else?
horus93
590 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Friday 4:25 AM
What's the catch? We need to worry about dealerr pegging out but this keep is the most likely to ensure that we don't need pegs and can focus on defense. It's not exactly easy to peg 5 anyway.
Andy (muesli64)
1633 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Friday 5:31 AM
I ran into difficulty with the 10 lead. I now wonder if 3 5 10 K is a better keep.
james500
2332 votes

Joined: June 2013

Friday 7:26 AM
K-3 too. Only the cut of a 3 or 4 is unhelpful, so we shouldn't need to peg anything.

With Dealer at 116, can we "get away with" leading the 5?
zeke76
431 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Friday 7:47 AM
I’d lead the 10, but James’ idea of a 5 lead is intriguing in a counterintuitive way.
JQT
2660 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Friday 8:05 AM
Fewest number of cards (six) can score upon Ten Card Lead.
cribbagepogo
2924 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 9:21 AM
So, what if I lead the 9. Dlr may get 5 for two with 6. Play 10 and hope dlr runs out of cards or do we not want to give a chance. Aces here can kill you.
Gougie00
4101 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 10:53 AM
I'll hold it this way. I don't need any points, so I'll lead the 9, and try to ditch the 5
Ras2829
3561 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 11:10 AM
RAS just plays the numbers. Although I like breaking the sequence with the lead of the 9, fewer cards remain to score on the 10 lead. There are 7 cards which will score on either the 8 or9 lead. As JQT and horus93 point out there are six cards which will score on a X-lead and there is the dealer preferences when needing pegs to hold cards of less than 10 in value. Hope you found lots of reasons to be thankful in this special season. The President per usual pardoned a turkey. What we did to the turkey showed no sign of a pardon. "Pardon me and pass the turkey!"
RubyTuesday
265 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Friday 3:27 PM
I’ve gone for the same discard as the rest of you for the same reasons.
Coeurdelion
4023 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 3:58 PM
I'll keep 5-8-9-10 and lead the 10.
HalscribCLX
3798 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 4:02 PM
At 114-116* playing a Bold strategy for the pegging the Win %s are:

Bold______Dlr Peg Out %____Pone Peg Dot %____Win %s
5-8-9-10_____2.7_______________0.9____________94.3
5-9-10-K_____1.9_______________0.1____________83.3
5-8-10-K_____0.9_______________0.8____________81.4
3-5-10-K_____1.2_______________0.4____________80.8

5-8-9-10 has the highest chance pf Dealer pegging out but the chances of Winning are very much best so I'll still select 3-K to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead the 10 and play Defense:

Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Pts.______Win %
8___________________(-2.40)______________77.2
5___________________(-2.58)______________76.0
10__________________(-2.61)______________81.6
5___________________(-2.76)______________74.8

Although the 8 lead pegs the least for Dealer the 10 lead has the best chance of Winning so I'll lead the 10.
JCM
322 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Friday 6:05 PM
6-game-match. Bad crib day for me. Won only 1 of 6 games(though I got to 120 in 1 of my losses.) 663/726, far out of top 3.
At least I wasn't skunked. But my averages decline a bit.

Since 1 Aug:

Played 84 games now, winning 57 of them: 67.9%

Played in 15 Fridays, placing in top three in 7 of them: 46.7%

Still not bad overall - just a bad day today. Never saw so many 2-pt hands and cribs for a long time!

We'll see what December brings.