Thursday 3:03 AM

I like this better than tossing A-8 because it's harder to read and has an 11.

Defense at +16/-1

Thursday 3:03 AM

A load up in the crib and some potentially defensive pegging cards. Happy T to yee. dec

Thursday 3:08 AM

Do we retain the RUN and Toss (A 8) or is there some merit in Keep (A 4 5 J) and Toss (3 8)?

Or, we could also probably consider Toss (5 J)!

Pone is nearly 'on target' to become Next Dealer at or beyond Hole 70, so we should probably have DEFENSE in mind. That also speaks to something such as Toss (5 J).

This would place more of the 'balance' of our energy into Our Crib, and allow for a safer journey through the pegging.

If we were in better shape *positionally* we might Toss (A 8) and retain that RUN today, but I think DEFENSE must rule the day, and so I'll Toss (5 J) and peg defensively.

Thursday 3:18 AM

I, too am going with the majority today. Potential for a good hand and a good crib.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Thursday 4:33 AM

I threw A and 8 because I thought they’d be useful in my crib whilst still leaving me with points in hand. At the moment this throw is equal with the one everyone above chose!

Thursday 5:38 AM

We had a very similar hand a couple or three months ago that promoted some discussion afterwards at the tournament that weekend. 3458 was preferred because of the pegging value and possibility of a 14 hand.Still a good discussion of 3 viable alternatives.

Thursday 6:51 AM

I'm keeping the run. Had to decide A-8 or A-J. Pone less likely to give me a J so in my crib it goes.

Thursday 7:09 AM

I figured the A8 might get some help in the crib.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Thursday 7:28 AM

I think I'd choose A-8 in an actual game, but since I'm free to experiment on here, let's see how J-5 pans out.

Thursday 10:03 AM

I'm just another echo here. I'd choose (J 5) as discard and play defensively.

Thursday 2:25 PM

I'll look at 3-4-5-8 (A-J), 3-4-5-J (A-8) and A-3-4-8 (5-J):

3-4-5-8: 5pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.65) = 8¾pts

3-4-5-J: 5pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.80) = 8¾pts

A-3-4-8: 2pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 9pts

Potential:

3-4-5-8: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/9/10/12/14pts 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 = 24 cuts.

3-4-5-J: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/10/12pts 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, JJJ = 20 cuts. Plus 10 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

A-3-4-8: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 5/6/8pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 7777, 888 = 20 cuts.

Position:

To be at 96pts for our next deal requires 36pts, That's 10pts above average so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

All these hands should peg well but but I think A-3-4-8 will peg best with lower cards and a magic eleven.

Summary:

A-3-4-8 has a starting value ¼pt higher than the others but it doesn't have the benefit of the nob potential in hand. It has joint most cuts for improvement with 3-4-5-J which has 20 cuts for 8-12pts and A-3-4-8 has 20 cuts for 5-8pts whic is a tremendous improvement from 2pts. 3-4-5-8 has the best maximum but fewer cuts for improvement but 24 cuts for 8-14pts. Playing Offense I think A-3-4-8 will peg best so I'll throw the 5-J.

Thursday 2:37 PM

At 60*-59 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W4 %____W5 %
A-3-4-8___4.93+(-1.89)+6.88=9.92____10.2____32.0
3-4-5-J___8.20+(-2.20)+3.67=9.67____10.7____34.5
3-4-5-8___8.15+(-2.20)+3.33=9.28____10.6____32.8

Defense_______L4 %____L5 %
A-3-4-8_______14.8____43.6
3-4-5-J_______13.5____41.2
3-4-5-8_______14.3____42.5

A-3-4-8 is best for expected averages by 0.25pt however 3-4-5-J is best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s by an appreciable margin. As we're mid way through the game I'll decide on the expected averages and select 5-J to discard.

After 10 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Friday 2:39 AM

Like ow this hand plays out. The 5-J is the strongest of the 5-X combinations to own crib. Remaining is a "sweet 16" and an "eleven from heaven". Three cards of high pegging value (A-3-4) and a mid card (8) of moderate pegging value (whether choosing off. or def. are beckoning. Would make this choice though don't believe that could stretch the 5-J to a potential crib average of 9.92 as shown by HalscribCLX above. RAS has tossed the 5-J to own crib 1,678 times in live play for a total number of points of 11,895 for an average of 7.088. Suspect the cribbot has added a negative delta factor to the average since the absence of other X-point cards and the presence of A-4 and a five spot in dealer hand increases chances than n/d will discard X-pointers. The cribbot is smarter than I am; so venture that is the reason for the 9.92 crib figure. That's nearly a whopping ten points. Even 55' falls far short of that in dealer crib average. So it's def., def., def. and play off the lead.