November 18, 2019
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Total votes: 209 |
Goatman 2502 votes Joined: March 2017 |
    Monday 3:14 AM
Wow 100%. Like the 2,3 to myself. Nice cut. |
Andy (muesli64) 2223 votes Joined: August 2009 |
    Monday 3:19 AM
Text book. 7-8 very suitable for crib and 2-3-4-6 pegs very nicely indeed. Apart from the possibility of a double run. |
dec 6357 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Monday 3:29 AM
I like 2-3 to the crib and even thou 2-3-4-6 is a very effective pegger you can either hold opponent down with this keep or play on and outpeg them with this one to. dec |
james500 3922 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Monday 3:51 AM
7-8 and 3-4 are the two options that immediately caught my eye, but I'd like to try 2-3. Seems I'm not alone. |
Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Monday 4:00 AM
I like holding 2-3-4-6 as this hand has more cuts for improvement. Only the cut of an ace does not add value. wasa says: I think all cuts give us points for improvement. The A gives us 1 additional point for the run. Rosemarie44 says: Thank you wasa: I misread my own notes! I had the ace with a "1" next to it circled. Yes, an ace gives us one point to the hand. |
Gougie00 5729 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Monday 4:48 AM
I used to throw 7-8 from this arrangement. Statz convinced me to toss 2-3 instead. Seems counter intuitive, but the 2-3 always seems to find friends in the crib and the 7-8 does not. |
horus93 1281 votes Joined: December 2017 |
    Monday 5:08 AM
I wasn't sure at all today. Liam has 7-8 better by 0.3 but maybe the magic 11 in this hand will bring them a little closer in actual averages with pegging considered. 2-3-4-6 would peg well against hands of low cards but pone is probably more likely to be holding x-x-x-5 or x-x-a-4 or something than four low cards. Then again 2-3-4-6 has a 5-trap. horus93 says: A critical question must be whether we're playing on or off. At -4/+2 I'd be inclined to play cautiously with these cards. I doubt we make it close to 86 so we should try to prevent opponent from getting too close to / too far beyond his par of 70. I'd hazard that this keep is significantly better for defensive pegging than 2-3-4-6 |
Jazzselke 2586 votes Joined: March 2009 |
    Monday 5:12 AM
23, 34, or 78? Great puzzle, at 66 we need as many points as possible. 2678 is a possible 14 or 16, but 34 is no guarantee of points in the crib. 4 does not add a lot to 678, but it forms a Magic 11, and allows for 23 in the crib. Also a 67 for a trap of the 5 second series. And 2346 with 78 to throw obviously a viable option as well. Will ho with Option #2, 23 in the crib hard to pass up. Jazzselke says: ...go with... Jazzselke says: Argument for 2348/67 also. 2348 guaranteed to improve. |
mfetchCT425 1398 votes Joined: February 2009 |
    Monday 5:28 AM
The 2-3 is tempting as always, but I don’t like the stray 4 in the keep of 4-6-7-8. I like the 2-3-4-6 where we keep the small card run intact and all cards in hand have synergy. 7-8 throw to crib is a top ten toss to own crib as well. This hand should peg well and has a 3-card magic 11 (2-3-6). |
JQT 4143 votes Joined: October 2008 |
    Monday 5:52 AM
Just beyond half way through this particular game, as the Current Dealer at Hole 66, we find ourselves about Four Points Shy of our desired TARGET, which according to DeLynn Colvert's "Twenty-Six Theory" of Cribbage is otherwise known as Hole 70.
Meanwhile, when those average Ten Points of prospective scoring gets added to where Pone now sits at Hole 62, this likely places our opponent at a positionally advantageous place of around Hole 72, or about Two Holes BEYOND this same, hypothetical yet strategical Third Street TARGET. Since the absolute value of our Four Point Deficit slightly exceeds the Two Point Surplus currently enjoyed by our Opponent, this calls for an ever-so-slight 'application of the brakes' by us during this deal, which can only be handled via the pegging when we are the Dealer. Discards such as Toss (2 3), Toss (3 4), and Toss (7 8) all look reasonable from this arrangement of cards, but which of these makes the most sense from a positional perspective? This might get complicated. The latter idea of Keep (2 3 4 6) and Toss (7 8) seems to be the most energetic of the three prospective discarding ideas (and so, let's 'stick a pin' in that idea for now...), but will this hand peg the most defensively? After an initial glance, it does seem to be a bit 'bunched up.' At the other extreme, Keep (2 6 7 8) and Toss (3 4) seems to offer us the most flexibility for pegging defensively, with the Deuce as an 'out' card that may perhaps avoid us from getting involved in a back-and-forth RUN situation. But even with a hand that starts out Two Points Higher than Keep (4 6 7 8), can Toss (3 4) 'make up for' the loss incurred by NOT performing that "Champion of (almost) All Discards" known as Toss (2 3)? Good Question! Those aficionados of what I have collectively dubbed as the "Three Discard Cousins that Begin with Zero Points" which are otherwise known respectively as: Toss (3 4), Toss (6 7), and Toss (J Q) all should know by now that each one of these discards will frequently average attaining almost Five Points in our Crib. This means that Toss (3 4), which will usually exceed the Crib Value of several High PAIRS such as Toss (T T), Toss (Q Q), and Toss (K K), is no real slouch! But truth be known, it cannot match either Toss (2 3) or Toss (7 8), even on its best day. Thus, even though Toss (2 3) is indeed a Discard Champion, Toss (3 4) might 'fit the bill' a bit better defensively today. The key word here of course is "might," because as all Cribbage Players know, both Toss (2 3) and Toss (7 8) are very, very "MIGHTy" Discards! And "Might" might just prove to make "Right" today. And therefore, I'm going to "Call an Audible" here; for the fact is, Keep (2 3 4 6) is such a powerful hand after so many Cuts, and it also pegs very well from EITHER side of the board, and most notably, Toss (7 8) is one stellar Dealer Discard. And all of this "adds up" to the realization that sometimes, especially when we're just 'rounding the bases' from Second Street onto Third Street, that occasionally the best DEFENSE is a good OFFENSE! It actually looks better than just "good" here: In fact, Tony the Tiger might even beam brightly and say, "It looks GRRRRRREAT!" |
dgergens 938 votes Joined: January 2018 |
    Monday 8:44 AM
I had a feeling there would be 2 camps today. This is what I would do, based on my experience. I look forward to reading everyone else's sophisticated explanations to better understand why I did what I did. |
JRCeagle78 1054 votes Joined: June 2016 |
    Monday 10:25 AM
I'll try an offensive strategy and toss 7-8. It is not as strong as 2-3 in my crib, but more cuts favor this arrangement. The cribbage gods decided I have to work a little harder for my points and gave me the Ace of hearts for a starter.
Like sands in the hourglass...so are the less than stellar starter cards. |
Coeurdelion 5593 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Monday 3:15 PM
Several choices - 2-6-7-8 (3-4), 2-3-4-6 (7-8) and 4-6-7-8 (2-3):
2-6-7-8: 7pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.96) = 12¾pts 2-3-4-6: 5pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 11½pts 4-6-7-8: 5pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 11¾pts Potential: 2-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 10/11/14/16pts with 222, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 20 cuts. 2-3-4-6: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/11/12pts with 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 9999 = 20 cuts. 4-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 444, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 20 cuts. Position: We're 4pts short of positional hole but Pone is 14pts short of where they need to be so I'll play Defense. Pegging: 2-3-4-6 is an excellent pegging hand with a 3-card magic eleven so should peg best. Summary: 2-6-7-8 starts with the most by 1/1¼pts but only has 24 cuts for improvement. 2-3-4-6 has a starting value 1¼pts less but has guaranteed improvement and should also peg very well. So I'll throw 7-8. |
HalscribCLX 5316 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Monday 3:18 PM
At 66*-62 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Net Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 % 2-3-4-6___8.50+1.54+6.41=16.45____40.8____51.2 4-6-7-8___7.54+1.37+6.86=15.77____38.5____51.8 2-6-7-8___9.46+1.17+4.39=15.02____36.2____50.2 Optimal_______L4 %____L5 % 2-3-4-6_______23.1____35.2 4-6-7-8_______21.1____34.5 2-6-7-8_______20.2____35.3 2-3-4-6 is best for expected averages 0.68pt and is also slightly best for Wion %s. It is not lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select 7-8 to discard. After the A cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense). |
dec 6357 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Monday 3:35 PM
looks like win in five to me. dec |
Ras2829 5153 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Monday 3:49 PM
At hole 66 I'm 3 holes short of 3rd Street CPZ (69-73); so my choice is for offense, with just a bit of caution. With opponent at hole 62 would play on the lead although will avoid pairing except for trey. Would par that as if tripled, play the six spot for 15-2, and will have scored 4 pegs. Think four pegs for me to be of more value than the six for opponent in that case. If an Ace/2 lead, will play the 6. If a four is led, will play the deuce. Only mid card lead I would touch is a 9, drop the 6 for 15-2 as many players won't pair it for count of 21. Often is safe for that reason. On any X-pointer, will play the six, forces a five off the play, advances the count to 26, and 2-3 combination scores 31-2 very often. It matters not, whether choosing offense, optimal or defense, the 2-3-4-6 will have the greatest combined value regardless of strategy choice. That's my take on it! Ras2829 says: As much as RAS loves the 2-3 discard, here the potential hand value and the pegging edge of 2-3-4-6 more than make up for the greater crib score of the 2-3. |
JCM 910 votes Joined: April 2019 |
    Monday 4:20 PM
I'm late to the party. (Playing chess online!)
But I like to hold 2-3-4-6 together. It's a powerful combination. And (7 8) in our crib can be very good, too. After the A-cut we have 6 pts in hand and an expected 6 in the crib. Total =12. Score is 66*-62. We'd like to make 20+ pts this hand so as to be at 86+ next hand as pone. This means 8+ pts of pegging wanted. Very unlikely. So peg defensively, so as to slow opp. down instead. |
RubyTuesday 912 votes Joined: January 2019 |
    Tuesday 1:10 AM
I’m in the 7 8 camp because although 2 3 would be better in my crib than 7 8, it’s even more better better betterer in my hand today than 7 8.. |